OT: Golden State Warriors

[the Q]

Not to mention Steph's injury resulting in him having to take less + the lack of cap smoothing which allowed them to sign KD. No doubt they're an all time team. That doesn't happen without SOME luck.

Which is why people shouldn’t be overreacting to dismantle the system. The system is fine. In fact the shortsightedness I’d essentially banning sign and trades only hurt those teams losing players.

 

[superjohn]

They may be smart, but they are also very lucky. The draft is largely a crapshoot, especially after the 1st 5 picks or so. They took the best of who was available and scored big time. If they are drafting in the top 5, I'm guessing they take neither of those guys.

And the Draymond pick you gotta chalk up to winning the lottery (mega millions version).

Call it what you like but there is a reason organizations like the Warriors end up with Curry, Klay, and Draymond and the Spurs end up with Parker at the end of the first, Ginobili at the end of the second (Kawhi at 15th in draft day trade) while the Knicks first good draft pick in 20+ years was Porzingis.

 

[Horatio]

Does Mark Jackson get any credit for this?

 

[intlzncster]

Call it what you like but there is a reason organizations like the Warriors end up with Curry, Klay, and Draymond and the Spurs end up with Parker at the end of the first, Ginobili at the end of the second (Kawhi at 15th in draft day trade) while the Knicks first good draft pick in 20+ years was Porzingis.

Yes, some teams are really bad at the draft. And some pretty good. That is so. I'm just saying, if they had Top 5 picks in those drafts, I highly doubt they end up with either of those two HOFers. Is what it is.

The Draft is often a product of circumstance.

 

[intlzncster]

Part of the luck is having awful franchises like Minnesota take 2 PGs ahead of curry.

Absolutely. Being able to take advantage of other GMs mistakes is paramount in the NBA--and that includes trades on Draft day.

 

[superjohn]

Absolutely. Being able to take advantage of other GMs mistakes is paramount in the NBA--and that includes trades on Draft day.

And if Portland doesn't take Sam Bouie the Bulls don't have 2 three peats. If the Patriots needed a QB and had a top pick they don't get Tom Brady, same for 49ers and Montana, 23 teams would be way better if they took Aaron Rodgers. You can do this with basically any championship team in sports but it seems like a silly exercise and takes away from what an organization accomplished. Good organizations tend to make good moves and bad ones tend to make bad ones. Is there luck involved? Sure, sometimes but most of it is because they know what they are doing.

 

[intlzncster]

And if Portland doesn't take Sam Bouie the Bulls don't have 2 three peats. If the Patriots needed a QB and had a top pick they don't get Tom Brady, same for 49ers and Montana, 23 teams would be way better if they took Aaron Rodgers. You can do this with basically any championship team in sports but it seems like a silly exercise and takes away from what an organization accomplished. Good organizations tend to make good moves and bad ones tend to make bad ones. Is there luck involved? Sure, sometimes but most of it is because they know what they are doing.

That's not what I'm getting at at all.

You can't give the Patriots, outside of Dick Reuben (and I guess a small amount to BB for listening to him vs taking some other bum in the 6th round), credit for identifying and drafting Brady.

They got flat out lucky. Nothing to do with skill or foresight (again except for Dick Reuben).

Same way I give the Warriors zero credit for Draymond. They got lucky. They rolled snake eyes 10 time in a row and are now reaping massive rewards from it.

As for Klay/Steph, at those particular spots in the draft, you're hoping to get a good, but not likely transformatory player. They were incredibly fortunate enough to stumble into two transcendental HOFers. They rated those guys higher than the rest of the players on the board. Which is skill, but what they ultimately got out of it was just good dumb luck.

If they weren't lucky, that means, if they magically had the first pick, they would have identified Steph as the best player in the draft and selected him then. I highly doubt that is the case. Nor with Klay.

Luck probably makes up 70% of the Draft. The other 30% is where good teams have to separate themselves from bad ones.

 

[goskis2018]

What does that mean?

With their dominance and the advances in baskeball they are probably the best of all time

What I mean is that if the warriors kept winning as they would have been likely to do without KD (albeit not as much of a foregone conclusion as it is with kd) Steph would be inarguably the best player in the world and the Warriors would have a claim to be one of the most impressively built teams based off of how they did it via the draft. The point of team sports to win championships and they will for as long as they are together but I personally find it hard to to pay attention when the season is a foregone conclusion

 

[superjohn]

That's not what I'm getting at at all.

You can't give the Patriots, outside of Dick Reuben (and I guess a small amount to BB for listening to him vs taking some other bum in the 6th round), credit for identifying and drafting Brady.

They got flat out lucky. Nothing to do with skill or foresight (again except for Dick Reuben).

Same way I give the Warriors zero credit for Draymond. They got lucky. They rolled snake eyes 10 time in a row and are now reaping massive rewards from it.

As for Klay/Steph, at those particular spots in the draft, you're hoping to get a good, but not likely transformatory player. They were incredibly fortunate enough to stumble into two transcendental HOFers. They rated those guys higher than the rest of the players on the board. Which is skill, but what they ultimately got out of it was just good dumb luck.

If they weren't lucky, that means, if they magically had the first pick, they would have identified Steph as the best player in the draft and selected him then. I highly doubt that is the case. Nor with Klay.

Luck probably makes up 70% of the Draft. The other 30% is where good teams have to separate themselves from bad ones.

We disagree.

 

[intlzncster]

We disagree.

That's OK. Most professional sports personnel guys (all sports) will tell you it's a crap shoot. You take an educated guess and go with that. It's so easy for fans and media to evaluate and pontificate after the fact, but it's all based on heavy bias (a lot of which is confirmation oriented).

How many people thought Steph would be an all star player in the NBA? Never mind the greatest shooter ever and in the conversation for best PG ever...

I'll tell you. Damn near nobody.

The Ultimate Crapshoot

 

[the Q]

That's OK. Most professional sports personnel guys (all sports) will tell you it's a crap shoot. You take an educated guess and go with that. It's so easy for fans and media to evaluate and pontificate after the fact, but it's all based on heavy bias (a lot of which is confirmation oriented).

How many people thought Steph would be an all star player in the NBA? Never mind the greatest shooter ever and in the conversation for best PG ever...

I'll tell you. Damn near nobody.

The Ultimate Crapshoot

I look at Curry’s scouting report when a friend posts it on the fb timeline....I still think it’s accurate. All the cons were legit concerns. Steph just found a way to make it work. Some guys do that.

 

[Hoophound]

I don’t like the Warriors because of their wealth of talent, so I pull for the underdog to beat them. I enjoy seeing who can beat them. If I were a Golden State fan I’d be ecstatic with the product. I see no reason to hold the talent against them, it is simply a well run team doing what it needs to do to win. These are franchises, the owner is doing it to create value and make money. He’s killing it, good for him, the players and the fans.

The thing I find annoying is that fans are so fascinated with people making open jump shots. It isn’t a big deal. It is a skill that can be taught and then practiced to near perfection. They are making all these shots because A. defenders can’t touch them like in the old days and B. they have so much talent to spread the floor with, people are wide open constantly.

Guys that shot like prime Ray and Kobe, with people draped all over them, were far more impressive to me. Give Kobe looks like Klay gets and his inefficiency would disappear. Klay is a great shooter with a quick release. I’m not bagging on him, just saying, he’s a product of the system. No way is he doing this in the hand check era and no way is he doing it on an average team now days. He’s just drilling open shots. It’s impressive if you can’t shoot, but I guarantee you there are plemty of shooters around the league that think, “Freakin’ Klay, I can’t get an open look on my scrub team”.