Glitches in the KP/NET Rankings Matrix...

[JustbrewitMan]

I think in general, they do a decent job trying to put some objectivity into ranking/seeding teams for the tourney.

But in looking at KenPom and NET this AM, it's clear you can still game their systems.

Gonzaga is KP #9, NET #8.

They have absolutely no business being ranked that high in either. They're 2-6 in Q1, 5-2 in Q2.

They've lost twice to St. Mary's, lost to Oregon St. (KP#82) & Santa Clara (KP#56).

All the bracketologists have them as a 8/9 seed, which is interesting.


Pomeroy needs to stop swimming in subscription money and fine-tune his model

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Meanwhile, Memphis is at KP #46, NET #48. With Q1/Q2 records of 6-2, 4-1. Projected as a 7 seed.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Yeah I don’t know what kind of voodoo magic Mark Few uses to game the NET. Impressive really.

 

[navery12]

I think in general, they do a decent job trying to put some objectivity into ranking/seeding teams for the tourney.

But in looking at KenPom and NET this AM, it's clear you can still game their systems.

Gonzaga is KP #9, NET #8.

They have absolutely no business being ranked that high in either. They're 2-6 in Q1, 5-2 in Q2.

They've lost twice to St. Mary's, lost to Oregon St. (KP#82) & Santa Clara (KP#56).

All the bracketologists have them as a 8/9 seed, which is interesting.


Pomeroy needs to stop swimming in subscription money and fine-tune his model

I agree they shouldn't be rated that highly, but it's also such an extreme outlier that I don't think it requires a change to the model. They're rated so highly because their losses have mostly been close with minimal negative impact, and their wins have been with massive point differentials.

They lost to Oregon State like you said, then in the rematch won by 38 in a game with a 10 point expected spread. The Baylor game was 3 points and they won by 38. They're a really weird team where they could theoretically go on a run but I'm also not convinced they're actually good

 

[JustbrewitMan]

I agree they shouldn't be rated that highly, but it's also such an extreme outlier that I don't think it requires a change to the model. They're rated so highly because their losses have mostly been close with minimal negative impact, and their wins have been with massive point differentials.

They lost to Oregon State like you said, then in the rematch won by 38 in a game with a 10 point expected spread. The Baylor game was 3 points and they won by 38. They're a really weird team where they could theoretically go on a run but I'm also not convinced they're actually good

I'm not able to stay up late enough to watch many of their games but from the scores of their games, it's clear that Few knows he can't let his foot off the gas vs. most of the WCC teams (that have horrible KP metrics) or their ratings will drop like a stone.

Luckily, most of the WCC teams all suck more at defense than offense, so the Zags are able to post these absurd 30-40pt MOV wins on the reg.

I mean, they're clearly a "good" to "very good" team, but no way in hell are they Top 10 KP/NET.