If you gave Larry Brown the Memphis roster and Pastner the SMU roster, I would agree with you. But although Morreira and Cunningham are big losses that could bite them against teams like, say, UNC or Gonzaga, I have enough faith in Larry Brown as a coach to navigate an AAC schedule with smart positioning defense, and even if they go small up front with Kennedy and Moore, there is still a decent amount of rim protection there.
On the other end, they should be a title wave - that offense that they run is so much more motion-based than 99% of the college offenses out there that another year of reps with the same core should vault them into the top 20 in offensive efficiency, IMO.
I would go:
1) UConn (this assuming Gibbs commits)
2) Cincinnati
3) SMU
4) Memphis
5) Tulsa