Game by Game shot selection

[doggydaddy]

There has been much talk about whether or not UConn needs to takes more jumpers. That they take too many 3's and don't go inside enough. I took the time to look at each game and used the play by play to come up with a breakdown of shots. It falls into 3 categories.

Layups and tip in shots. Some of these are fast break layup attempts, but many are the results of passes inside for easy basket attempts. Some are also offensive rebound putbacks. It would take a lot more time to break these down further.

2 Point Jumpers. Any shot taken that is not considered a layup and is inside the 3 point line.

3 Point Jumpers. Any shot taken outside the 3 point line.

I list the number of shots taken/percent of total shots taken (not to be confused with actual shooting percentage) for each category by game. I also list a total at the end for the season to date.

There are certainly games that there are very few 2 point jumpers taken, but the numbers are pretty consistant.

vs Syracuse. Layups - 24/35.8% , 2 pt - 19/28.3%, 3 pt - 24/35.8%
vs Louisville Layups - 20/32.8% , 2 pt - 12/19.7%, 3 pt - 29/47.5%
vs Marquette Layups - 25/36.2% , 2 pt - 23/33.3%, 3 pt - 21/30.4%
vs Gerogetown Layups - 16/24.2% , 2 pt - 9/13.6% , 3 pt - 41/62.1%
vs Notre Dame Layups - 17/23.9% , 2 pt - 31/43.6%, 3 pt - 23/32.3%
vs Oregon. Layups - 24/30.0% , 2 pt - 25/31.2%, 3 pt - 31/38.7%
vs Stanford Layups - 14/25.0% , 2 pt - 18/25.0%, 3 pt - 24/42.8%
vs Hartford Layups - 25/40.9% , 2 pt - 16/26.2%, 3 pt - 20/32.7%
vs Oakland Layups - 25/36.2% , 2 pt - 23/33.3%, 3 pt - 21/30.4%
vs Penn State Layups - 27/33.3% , 2 pt - 14/17.2% ,3 pt - 40/49.3%
vs Maryland Layups - 17/28.3% , 2 pt - 28/46.6%, 3 pt - 15/25.0%
vs Colgate Layups - 28/37.8% , 2 pt - 17/22.9%, 3 pt - 29/39.1%
vs Purdue Layups - 29/48.3% , 2 pt - 12/20.0%, 3 pt - 19/31.6%
vs Marist Layups - 21/36.2% , 2 pt - 9/15.5%, 3 pt - 29/50.0%
vs Wake Forest Layups - 25/36.2% , 2 pt - 23/33.3%, 3 pt - 21/30.4%
vs Texas A&M Layups - 23/33.3% , 2 pt - 13/25.5% ,3 pt - 15/29.4%
vs Charleston Layups - 24/36.4% , 2 pt - 23/34.8%, 3 pt- 19/28.8%

Total Layups - 384/34.3%, 2 pointers - 315/28.1%, 3 pointers -421/37.6%

The SU game was just about an average game for UConn.

 

[VAUConnFan]

You're all over it. Good job.

It is hard to take issue with a team taking too many threes when the team has good shooters.

Layups might be taken out of context. A shot inside the paint is not necesarily a layup/high percentage shot.
Going inside with the ball can also a misleading remedy to poor shooting. An inside player with bad hands or poor footwork is a liability with the ball. An inside player who cannot finish is a similar liability.

 

[vtcwbuff]

Good job. It changed my way of thinking. I'm usually bitching during the game when outside shots aren't falling wondering why, after 487 misses a player doesn't cut down the range a bit.

Did you note who was taking the midrange shots? I get the feeling that Dolson and Mosqueda-Lewis may be shooting them the most.

Where do you get your stats? I noticed they are usually slightly off from what I get. I usually go to the UConn WCBB site. Anyway, the team is taking around 24 three point shots a game. I think I remember that Auriemma mentioned a number that he likes to see a couple of years ago. Anyone know what it was?

Whatever the answer, the team is 3rd in made 3 point shots and 12th in made percentage so I can't see how anyone (including me) can complain about it.

 

[speedoo]

Good job. It changed my way of thinking. I'm usually bitching during the game when outside shots aren't falling wondering why, after 487 misses a player doesn't cut down the range a bit.

Did you note who was taking the midrange shots? I get the feeling that Dolson and Mosqueda-Lewis may be shooting them the most.

Where do you get your stats? I noticed they are usually slightly off from what I get. I usually go to the UConn WCBB site. Anyway, the team is taking around 24 three point shots a game. I think I remember that Auriemma mentioned a number that he likes to see a couple of years ago. Anyone know what it was?

Whatever the answer, the team is 3rd in made 3 point shots and 12th in made percentage so I can't see how anyone (including me) can complain about it.

My recollection is he said something like 40%, but he does not mind if the team strays from that by a lot. Take what the defense gives you.

 

[doggydaddy]

Good job. It changed my way of thinking. I'm usually bitching during the game when outside shots aren't falling wondering why, after 487 misses a player doesn't cut down the range a bit.

Did you note who was taking the midrange shots? I get the feeling that Dolson and Mosqueda-Lewis may be shooting them the most.

Where do you get your stats? I noticed they are usually slightly off from what I get. I usually go to the UConn WCBB site. Anyway, the team is taking around 24 three point shots a game. I think I remember that Auriemma mentioned a number that he likes to see a couple of years ago. Anyone know what it was?

Whatever the answer, the team is 3rd in made 3 point shots and 12th in made percentage so I can't see how anyone (including me) can complain about it.

My numbers are probably not perfect but pretty close.

I go to the uconnhuskies.com and find a box score. I find the total shots and total 3 pt shots. Then I do a ctrl f and find all the occurances for "jumper". Those are the 2 point jumpers. Then I add the 3 pointers and 2 point jumpers together and subtract that from the total shots in the boxscore.

With more time, I could easily note who are taking those jumpers. You make a good guess who take most of them.

Sometimes numbers don't jive with perception. It's always good to have as much information as possible.

 

[Fishbone]

There has been much talk about whether or not UConn needs to takes more jumpers. That they take too many 3's and don't go inside enough. I took the time to look at each game and used the play by play to come up with a breakdown of shots. It falls into 3 categories.

Layups and tip in shots. Some of these are fast break layup attempts, but many are the results of passes inside for easy basket attempts. Some are also offensive rebound putbacks. It would take a lot more time to break these down further.

2 Point Jumpers. Any shot taken that is not considered a layup and is inside the 3 point line.

3 Point Jumpers. Any shot taken outside the 3 point line.

I list the number of shots taken/percent of total shots taken (not to be confused with actual shooting percentage) for each category by game. I also list a total at the end for the season to date.

There are certainly games that there are very few 2 point jumpers taken, but the numbers are pretty consistant.

vs Syracuse. Layups - 24/35.8% , 2 pt - 19/28.3%, 3 pt - 24/35.8%
vs Louisville Layups - 20/32.8% , 2 pt - 12/19.7%, 3 pt - 29/47.5%
vs Marquette Layups - 25/36.2% , 2 pt - 23/33.3%, 3 pt - 21/30.4%
vs Gerogetown Layups - 16/24.2% , 2 pt - 9/13.6% , 3 pt - 41/62.1%
vs Notre Dame Layups - 17/23.9% , 2 pt - 31/43.6%, 3 pt - 23/32.3%
vs Oregon. Layups - 24/30.0% , 2 pt - 25/31.2%, 3 pt - 31/38.7%
vs Stanford Layups - 14/25.0% , 2 pt - 18/25.0%, 3 pt - 24/42.8%
vs Hartford Layups - 25/40.9% , 2 pt - 16/26.2%, 3 pt - 20/32.7%
vs Oakland Layups - 25/36.2% , 2 pt - 23/33.3%, 3 pt - 21/30.4%
vs Penn State Layups - 27/33.3% , 2 pt - 14/17.2% ,3 pt - 40/49.3%
vs Maryland Layups - 17/28.3% , 2 pt - 28/46.6%, 3 pt - 15/25.0%
vs Colgate Layups - 28/37.8% , 2 pt - 17/22.9%, 3 pt - 29/39.1%
vs Purdue Layups - 29/48.3% , 2 pt - 12/20.0%, 3 pt - 19/31.6%
vs Marist Layups - 21/36.2% , 2 pt - 9/15.5%, 3 pt - 29/50.0%
vs Wake Forest Layups - 25/36.2% , 2 pt - 23/33.3%, 3 pt - 21/30.4%
vs Texas A&M Layups - 23/33.3% , 2 pt - 13/25.5% ,3 pt - 15/29.4%
vs Charleston Layups - 24/36.4% , 2 pt - 23/34.8%, 3 pt- 19/28.8%

Total Layups - 384/34.3%, 2 pointers - 315/28.1%, 3 pointers -421/37.6%

The SU game was just about an average game for UConn.

Great work! Data rules!

 

[msf22b]

My impression is that there were plenty of 2's in the Syracuse game; but I'll look at it again and try to quantify it.
OT: this thread: did anyone notice at least 2 unbelievable, one-handed, super-athletic rebounds by Stewie, the kind almost no-one makes.

 

[doggydaddy]

My impression is that there were plenty of 2's in the Syracuse game; but I'll look it again and try to quantify it.
OT: this thread: did anyone notice at least 2 unbelievable, one-handed, super-athletic rebounds by Stewie, the kind almost no-one makes.

I didn't quantify it in the original post?

 

[msf22b]

Sorry, I didn't note that you had included the 'Cuse game. In any case, my method (see my thread) was slightly different,
Probably come up with similar results.

 

[Icebear]

My recollection is he said something like 40%, but he does not mind if the team strays from that by a lot. Take what the defense gives you.

I think earlier in the year he said it was about 1/3 of shots should be 3s. Like you I am sure that it is not hard and fast, however.

 

[VAMike23]

There has been much talk about whether or not UConn needs to takes more jumpers. That they take too many 3's and don't go inside enough.

Sometimes numbers don't jive with perception. It's always good to have as much information as possible.

Which of the three perceptions do you feel your data and analysis refute? Or all three?

 

[Fiftyish]

Layups and tip in shots. Some of these are fast break layup attempts, but many are the results of passes inside for easy basket attempts. Some are also offensive rebound putbacks. It would take a lot more time to break these down further.

Well you're retired now, right? So whats the problem?

 

[vtcwbuff]

My numbers are probably not perfect but pretty close.

I go to the uconnhuskies.com and find a box score. I find the total shots and total 3 pt shots. Then I do a ctrl f and find all the occurances for "jumper". Those are the 2 point jumpers. Then I add the 3 pointers and 2 point jumpers together and subtract that from the total shots in the boxscore.

With more time, I could easily note who are taking those jumpers. You make a good guess who take most of them.

Sometimes numbers don't jive with perception. It's always good to have as much information as possible.

The reason I mentioned it is because the 3 pt shots number is different. You had 421 shots (added individual boxes) and the season stat says 414.
There was a similar discrepancy (between adding boxes and using the season stat) when you posted about attendance. Based on how the stat page on the UConn site is maintained, I can't say I'm surprised.

 

[vtcwbuff]

Well you're retired now, right? So whats the problem?

Fiftyish - The problem is that once you retire there is way less spare time available. There is no longer an excuse to put off those projects that have been around for years. You can't tell your spouse that you just don't have time for that "honey do" list. Spending half the morning swapping lies at the local coffee shop suddenly becomes high priority. All things you'll discover when you're sixtyish.

 

[Fiftyish]

Fiftyish - The problem is that once you retire there is way less spare time available. There is no longer an excuse to put off those projects that have been around for years. You can't tell your spouse that you just don't have time for that "honey do" list. Spending half the morning swapping lies at the local coffee shop suddenly becomes high priority. All things you'll discover when you're sixtyish.

Actually, I'm almost out of my sixties. Been retired for 5 years. I understand your point. I don't know how I got anything done when I was working, because I still don't have time for stuff around the house. It's all how you set priorities.

 

[doggydaddy]

Which of the three perceptions do you feel your data and analysis refute? Or all three?

That is a great question. I would say that the numbers are out there for people to use.

I think that it could be used to refute all of them mostly by the fact that there are only a handful of games with extremes in too many 3 pointers or too little mid-range shots. And people tend to remember the extremes. Hopefully these stats can bring some clarity to their thoughts on these things.

 

[VAMike23]

That is a great question. I would say that the numbers are out there for people to use.

I think that it could be used to refute all of them mostly by the fact that there are only a handful of games with extremes in too many 3 pointers or too little mid-range shots. And people tend to remember the extremes. Hopefully these stats can bring some clarity to their thoughts on these things.

There would need to be a lot more info brought into the discussion besides the figures listed in the OP before any conclusions are drawn about what's too little or too many, etc. when it comes to going inside. These numbers simply are what they are - they're out there for people to use, as you say. But by themselves they don't have any bearing on whether the team should look to go inside more, if they're doing it enough, not enough, if the # of 2-pt shots was too low (or too high?), etc.

RE: 3-pointers, this is an easier figure to connect the dots with. As other posters mentioned, Geno has occasionally thrown out some figures as other posters have noted. Last year, he was saying we needed to take 20 shots and hopefully make 8-9 of them. This year I think he said around 1/3 of the shots is 'reasonable' as a rule of thumb.

 

[doggydaddy]

There would need to be a lot more info brought into the discussion besides the figures listed in the OP before any conclusions are drawn about what's too little or too many, etc. when it comes to going inside. These numbers simply are what they are - they're out there for people to use, as you say. But by themselves they don't have any bearing on whether the team should look to go inside more, if they're doing it enough, not enough, if the # of 2-pt shots was too low (or too high?), etc.

RE: 3-pointers, this is an easier figure to connect the dots with. As other posters mentioned, Geno has occasionally thrown out some figures as other posters have noted. Last year, he was saying we needed to take 20 shots and hopefully make 8-9 of them. This year I think he said around 1/3 of the shots is 'reasonable' as a rule of thumb.

When someone posts that UConn doesn't take enough 2 point jumpers, the numbers show, game by game how many they take. It can't tell someone how many is enough.

 

[boontonbomber]

the pull-up 12-15 jump shot appears to be one of the most difficult shots for all the women players to be effective or comfortable with. maybe it's a strength thing. at the moment, kml and breanna seem to be the only ones who are comfortable and successful with it. bria has been in the past. we saw brianna use it a couple of times earlier in the season. at any rate, seems to me that the dribble drive and shoot, or drop off/pass out to the wings is the one thing this team, and many women's teams are weak at.

 

[Icebear]

the pull-up 12-15 jump shot appears to be one of the most difficult shots for all the women players to be effective or comfortable with. maybe it's a strength thing. at the moment, kml and breanna seem to be the only ones who are comfortable and successful with it. bria has been in the past. we saw brianna use it a couple of times earlier in the season. at any rate, seems to me that the dribble drive and shoot, or drop off/pass out to the wings is the one thing this team, and many women's teams are weak at.

Stef has it pretty well mastered from all different angles.

 

[easttexastrash]

The thing to keep in mind is that you rarely draw a foul from the opponent when shooting a three point shot. There is a lot more to consider when discussing shot selection than just shooting percentages. Not only do you get more free throws, but you also put your opponents in more foul trouble when you have more shot attempts in the lane.

Through 17 games:

• UCONN has shot 253 FTs vs. 238 by its opponents
• Baylor has shot 379 FTs vs. 212 by its opponents

 

[OneTrickPony]

Great job DD...and the 3-point shooting numbers we had against Stanford should be replicable in this game with some better inside success.

 

[JRRRJ]

The reason I mentioned it is because the 3 pt shots number is different. You had 421 shots (added individual boxes) and the season stat says 414.
There was a similar discrepancy (between adding boxes and using the season stat) when you posted about attendance. Based on how the stat page on the UConn site is maintained, I can't say I'm surprised.

For another POV on the stats you can go to the NCAA Uconn season boxscore. They say 414 is correct.

This is linked from my NCAA stat link page as well.

 

[Adesmar123]

DD

Have you tried to correlate the number of "layups" % with the poll ranking of the team played. My guess is there is a pretty strong negative correlation between the layups % and the team ranking. That is, as the team ranking goes up, the % number of layups goes down.

 

[boontonbomber]

Stef has it pretty well mastered from all different angles.

dolson's 12-15 foot jumper is really not a pull-up jumper. i'm talking about off a dribble penetration move. but stef certainly has become a very good shooter from that range. i wish, though, that she would refrain from shooting further out.