Game Analysis - UConn vs Villanova - Game 2

[cferraro04]

Well you look at Villanova and they are number 2 in the Big East...and for a very good reason... They got Siegrist you might say. However, as gaudy as her stats are at 29.5 points per game and 9.4 rebounds per game she does have a good supporting cast...they play defense and they know their roles on the team. Oh and by the way...Maddy can also hit the three averaging almost 2 per game. This team takes care of the basketball only turning it over 10.3 times per game. They have better than average size starting: 6'2", 6'2", 6'0", 5'11" and 5'9". They have multiple players who can hit the three but at least it won't be like Creighton who can and will jack up threes all night and hit 12 of them. Villanova averages 7 three pointers per game. Last game at the XL Center UConn came away with a 5 point win and it was a war with UConn feeling pretty lucky to have hung on for that one. Now we go into Villanova's home court...to a team who knows that we have a short bench and are playing tired with injuries...they know about our dismal play on the road and are probably salivating at the chance to avenge their loss just 3 weeks ago.

UConn on the other hand, is fortunate to have gotten Caroline back...she provides a player off the bench who can be counted on for some offense and who knows how to play within the UConn system. It gives UConn another shooter from the perimeter which they sorrily needed. UConn knows that as a team they can play better than they have of late and I believe they are anxious to get back on track. Make no mistake this will be a tough game to win. Stopping Maddy is the key to victory...we held her to 25 points (most in the second half)...which was only 4 below her average. I think we only have to hold her to her average or lower to give us a great chance for a win... If Maddy comes out and goes off for 39 or 50 like she has in her last two games...it could be a long night for the huskies.

In game one 3 point shooting was horrific for both teams..with Villanova getting 4 threes and UConn getting only 3 threes. UConn had 15 turnovers to Villanova's 9. Villanova scored 17 points off turnovers while Uconn only scored 7. We will need to take better care of the basketball if we want to come away with a win. UConn scored 30 points in the paint on January 31st while Villanova got 22 in the paint. Defensively Villanova had 7 steals and 5 blocks to UConn's 3 steals and 1 block. In our last match-up Lucy Olsen went for 19 points...we need to limit Lucy's points and force their role players to take and make shots.

In the last game UConn was without the services of Caroline Ducharme and Azzi Fudd. They will more than likely only have Caroline back for this one. Aubrey was on fire in game one. We had 3 players play 40 minutes and the others played 38 and 36 minutes respectively. We only played 6 players in game one with Ayanna Patterson getting 6 minutes.

Dorka Jurasz vs Christine Dalce - Dalce is a solid player who can score and rebound...she averages 6.8 points per game and 7.7 rebounds. She only was able to score 2 points in game one. She is a blocking machine...so, Dorka must protect the basketball. Dorka's consistency and her level of impact on games will make her a tough match-up for Dalce. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aaliyah Edwards vs Maddy Siegrist - Aaliyah has been in a slump since the South Carolina game...I hope she snaps out of it this game because Maddy Siegrist is a hand full for anybody. She is coming off two supper games where she scored 50 and 39 consecutively. Aaliyah must stay out of foul trouble, she needs to move her feet, keep her verticality and try to limit Maddy as much as she can...Maddy went for 25 against us last time and Aliyah managed 13 points. Aliyah will need help in guarding Maddy...but Maddy is a seasoned, crafty player who will draw fouls, pass out of the double team and score the basketball no matter who is guarding her. ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

Aubrey Griffin vs Maddie Burke- Aubrey was a complete animal last game scoring 19 points...when Aubrey is on she is difficult to stop. Maddie Burke had 6 points in our last match-up which is right at her average. Aubrey will have to guard Maddie out to the three point line as Maddie averages 2 three pointers per game. Aubrey's skill-set ought to cause problems for Maddie. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Brook Mullin - Brook will play about 26 to 28 minutes so, Lou will be facing a few players in this match-up...maybe Bella Bunyan and Kaitlyn Oribel. Lou's contributions on both sides of the court continue to be impressive 16.1 points per game with 2 threes and taking charges. She scores baskets when they are needed, is a good finisher around the basket when she drives and is a lights out free-throw shooter. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl vs Lucy Olsen - Nice match-up here Lucy is their second best scoring option and did score 19 points in our last match-up. She is also Villanova's facilitator averaging 4.4 assists per game. She did score 19 points in her last outing against UConn so it really would be nice to see Nika hold her below her season average of 12.7 points. Nika needs to also stay out of foul trouble as this team needs her on the floor. Olsen helps Villanova offensively while Muhl averages 5 points less per game than Lucy...but, Nika's ability to pass the ball and create baskets for her teammates makes her just as valuable on the offensive end. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles - Game played at Villanova, fans ready to rock, Villanova hungry to move up in the Big East standings...even though UConn would like to solidify its lead in conference play, Villanova hungry to avenge their loss to UConn and earn a better seed in the NCAAs...finally, Maddy, Maddy, Maddy she can take a game over.... ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

Bench - Villanova has 12 points and 6.7 rebounds on the bench...with Caroline back UConn has 15 points and 9 rebounds. They bring great height with Caroline, Amari and Ayanna 6'5" and 6'2" and 6'2"...but, Caroline is an elite player...who can do things that no one else does. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Coaching - Geno, et al. vs...it doesn't matter...UConn's coaching staff doesn't give up anything to the opposition. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Because of Maddy Seigrist and the home court advantage this should be a close game...it could go either way but with Caroline back I am going to go with UConn

UCONN - 71
VILLANOVA - 67

MOV - 4

 

[The deacon]

Well you look at Villanova and they are number 2 in the Big East...and for a very good reason... They got Siegrist you might say. However, as gaudy as her stats are at 29.5 points per game and 9.4 rebounds per game she does have a good supporting cast...they play defense and they know their roles on the team. Oh and by the way...Maddy can also hit the three averaging almost 2 per game. This team takes care of the basketball only turning it over 10.3 times per game. They have better than average size starting: 6'2", 6'2", 6'0", 5'11" and 5'9". They have multiple players who can hit the three but at least it won't be like Creighton who can and will jack up threes all night and hit 12 of them. Villanova averages 7 three pointers per game. Last game at the XL Center UConn came away with a 5 point win and it was a war with UConn feeling pretty lucky to have hung on for that one. Now we go into Villanova's home court...to a team who knows that we have a short bench and are playing tired with injuries...they know about our dismal play on the road and are probably salivating at the chance to avenge their loss just 3 weeks ago.

UConn on the other hand, is fortunate to have gotten Caroline back...she provides a player off the bench who can be counted on for some offense and who knows how to play within the UConn system. It gives UConn another shooter from the perimeter which they sorrily needed. UConn knows that as a team they can play better than they have of late and I believe they are anxious to get back on track. Make no mistake this will be a tough game to win. Stopping Maddy is the key to victory...we held her to 25 points (most in the second half)...which was only 4 below her average. I think we only have to hold her to her average or lower to give us a great chance for a win... If Maddy comes out and goes off for 39 or 50 like she has in her last two games...it could be a long night for the huskies.

In game one 3 point shooting was horrific for both teams..with Villanova getting 4 threes and UConn getting only 3 threes. UConn had 15 turnovers to Villanova's 9. Villanova scored 17 points off turnovers while Uconn only scored 7. We will need to take better care of the basketball if we want to come away with a win. UConn scored 30 points in the paint on January 31st while Villanova got 22 in the paint. Defensively Villanova had 7 steals and 5 blocks to UConn's 3 steals and 1 block. In our last match-up Lucy Olsen went for 19 points...we need to limit Lucy's points and force their role players to take and make shots.

In the last game UConn was without the services of Caroline Ducharme and Azzi Fudd. They will more than likely only have Caroline back for this one. Aubrey was on fire in game one. We had 3 players play 40 minutes and the others played 38 and 36 minutes respectively. We only played 6 players in game one with Ayanna Patterson getting 6 minutes.

Dorka Jurasz vs Christine Dalce - Dalce is a solid player who can score and rebound...she averages 6.8 points per game and 7.7 rebounds. She only was able to score 2 points in game one. She is a blocking machine...so, Dorka must protect the basketball. Dorka's consistency and her level of impact on games will make her a tough match-up for Dalce. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aaliyah Edwards vs Maddy Siegrist - Aaliyah has been in a slump since the South Carolina game...I hope she snaps out of it this game because Maddy Siegrist is a hand full for anybody. She is coming off two supper games where she scored 50 and 39 consecutively. Aaliyah must stay out of foul trouble, she needs to move her feet, keep her verticality and try to limit Maddy as much as she can...Maddy went for 25 against us last time and Aliyah managed 13 points. Aliyah will need help in guarding Maddy...but Maddy is a seasoned, crafty player who will draw fouls, pass out of the double team and score the basketball no matter who is guarding her. ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

Aubrey Griffin vs Maddie Burke- Aubrey was a complete animal last game scoring 19 points...when Aubrey is on she is difficult to stop. Maddie Burke had 6 points in our last match-up which is right at her average. Aubrey will have to guard Maddie out to the three point line as Maddie averages 2 three pointers per game. Aubrey's skill-set ought to cause problems for Maddie. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Brook Mullin - Brook will play about 26 to 28 minutes so, Lou will be facing a few players in this match-up...maybe Bella Bunyan and Kaitlyn Oribel. Lou's contributions on both sides of the court continue to be impressive 16.1 points per game with 2 threes and taking charges. She scores baskets when they are needed, is a good finisher around the basket when she drives and is a lights out free-throw shooter. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl vs Lucy Olsen - Nice match-up here Lucy is their second best scoring option and did score 19 points in our last match-up. She is also Villanova's facilitator averaging 4.4 assists per game. She did score 19 points in her last outing against UConn so it really would be nice to see Nika hold her below her season average of 12.7 points. Nika needs to also stay out of foul trouble as this team needs her on the floor. Olsen helps Villanova offensively while Muhl averages 5 points less per game than Lucy...but, Nika's ability to pass the ball and create baskets for her teammates makes her just as valuable on the offensive end. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles - Game played at Villanova, fans ready to rock, Villanova hungry to move up in the Big East standings...even though UConn would like to solidify its lead in conference play, Villanova hungry to avenge their loss to UConn and earn a better seed in the NCAAs...finally, Maddy, Maddy, Maddy she can take a game over.... ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

Bench - Villanova has 12 points and 6.7 rebounds on the bench...with Caroline back UConn has 15 points and 9 rebounds. They bring great height with Caroline, Amari and Ayanna 6'5" and 6'2" and 6'2"...but, Caroline is an elite player...who can do things that no one else does. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Coaching - Geno, et al. vs...it doesn't matter...UConn's coaching staff doesn't give up anything to the opposition. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Because of Maddy Seigrist and the home court advantage this should be a close game...it could go either way but with Caroline back I am going to go with UConn

UCONN - 71
VILLANOVA - 67

MOV - 4

Really good job, cferraro04! Nothing to add except I hope you're right about the outcome.

Go, Huskies...

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei!

I might shift your emphasis a little, away fro stopping Siegrist to stopping Olsen. Siegrist is gonna score. But Olsen can be stopped. Also, Dorka and Aaliyah have to box out Dalce better than they did last time.

 

[Topdawg]

In the last game, we had 3 more rebounds than they did and 7 more turnovers. They took 62 shots to our 49. Many of those were 3 pt shots that did not go in. On free throws we were 18/21 they were 10/11. So we need to do much better on possessions and take and make many more shots.

[maybe the stat line gets muddled when you take shots and are fouled in the process. I am not accounting for that]

 

[SLY63]

IF we see the AE from the SC game, it will really improve our chances

 

[HopJim]

Good assessment. I see two keys:
-Aubrey keeps Siegrist under control, particularly in the 4th Q. She will get her points but cannot get those 3's at critical times. Aubrey has been a half step slower the past few games - have some concern whether its just being tired or something more.
-Edwards cannot continue to be take a few seconds to make up her mind what to do, drive, pull up shot, or pass - when she gets the ball underneath. Against Creighton, she would normally have scored 10+ more points and the game would not have been nearly as close. Vill. is tough inside but Edwards has the height and strength to make this her come back game.

 

[Tonyc]

We are playing at Nova. We must stay out of foul trouble especially when guarding Maddy and Olsen. If we have to play them defenseless that creates many more problems like having our bench players guard them and both of them having the freedom to shoot the ball without worrying about getting fouled. BTW both are pretty good foul shooters. By biggest concern in this game is foul trouble for UConn. With that said I expect to see more dribble drives with Caroline on the floor.

 

[Jokerman619]

I can agree on most. But I truly believe that uconn will take care of Villanova. Between Aubrey and Nika Olsen will be in check. And in the second half Aubrey will keep Maddie in check. And Caroline will make a big difference with her 3 point shooting and to penetrate to the basket, and Lou looked more comfortable last game. So I believe she and Caroline will make the 3s rain. Dorka can handle the rebounds on both sides. And make some needed shots. And AE hopefully will get her rhythm back. And attack the rim. Points in the paint. And reduce the fouls, and the turnovers. But mostly play uconn ball and not let them make uconn play thier game. And Maddie is just a person. She can be reduced in her game. As the uconn have a great defense and they are truly committed to each other. So I stand with them 100%. Go Huskies

 

[Rowdy831]

AE needs to get her shots in this game. In the last few games she hasn't scored too much but more than that she hasn't been getting the number of shots the team needs her to have to beat good teams. This game will come down to how well UCONN plays and how much the fatigue is really a factor. If they play with energy they will win easily, if they play like they have been lately they will be in a dog fight.

 

[Rowdy831]

Well you look at Villanova and they are number 2 in the Big East...and for a very good reason... They got Siegrist you might say. However, as gaudy as her stats are at 29.5 points per game and 9.4 rebounds per game she does have a good supporting cast...they play defense and they know their roles on the team. Oh and by the way...Maddy can also hit the three averaging almost 2 per game. This team takes care of the basketball only turning it over 10.3 times per game. They have better than average size starting: 6'2", 6'2", 6'0", 5'11" and 5'9". They have multiple players who can hit the three but at least it won't be like Creighton who can and will jack up threes all night and hit 12 of them. Villanova averages 7 three pointers per game. Last game at the XL Center UConn came away with a 5 point win and it was a war with UConn feeling pretty lucky to have hung on for that one. Now we go into Villanova's home court...to a team who knows that we have a short bench and are playing tired with injuries...they know about our dismal play on the road and are probably salivating at the chance to avenge their loss just 3 weeks ago.

UConn on the other hand, is fortunate to have gotten Caroline back...she provides a player off the bench who can be counted on for some offense and who knows how to play within the UConn system. It gives UConn another shooter from the perimeter which they sorrily needed. UConn knows that as a team they can play better than they have of late and I believe they are anxious to get back on track. Make no mistake this will be a tough game to win. Stopping Maddy is the key to victory...we held her to 25 points (most in the second half)...which was only 4 below her average. I think we only have to hold her to her average or lower to give us a great chance for a win... If Maddy comes out and goes off for 39 or 50 like she has in her last two games...it could be a long night for the huskies.

In game one 3 point shooting was horrific for both teams..with Villanova getting 4 threes and UConn getting only 3 threes. UConn had 15 turnovers to Villanova's 9. Villanova scored 17 points off turnovers while Uconn only scored 7. We will need to take better care of the basketball if we want to come away with a win. UConn scored 30 points in the paint on January 31st while Villanova got 22 in the paint. Defensively Villanova had 7 steals and 5 blocks to UConn's 3 steals and 1 block. In our last match-up Lucy Olsen went for 19 points...we need to limit Lucy's points and force their role players to take and make shots.

In the last game UConn was without the services of Caroline Ducharme and Azzi Fudd. They will more than likely only have Caroline back for this one. Aubrey was on fire in game one. We had 3 players play 40 minutes and the others played 38 and 36 minutes respectively. We only played 6 players in game one with Ayanna Patterson getting 6 minutes.

Dorka Jurasz vs Christine Dalce - Dalce is a solid player who can score and rebound...she averages 6.8 points per game and 7.7 rebounds. She only was able to score 2 points in game one. She is a blocking machine...so, Dorka must protect the basketball. Dorka's consistency and her level of impact on games will make her a tough match-up for Dalce. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aaliyah Edwards vs Maddy Siegrist - Aaliyah has been in a slump since the South Carolina game...I hope she snaps out of it this game because Maddy Siegrist is a hand full for anybody. She is coming off two supper games where she scored 50 and 39 consecutively. Aaliyah must stay out of foul trouble, she needs to move her feet, keep her verticality and try to limit Maddy as much as she can...Maddy went for 25 against us last time and Aliyah managed 13 points. Aliyah will need help in guarding Maddy...but Maddy is a seasoned, crafty player who will draw fouls, pass out of the double team and score the basketball no matter who is guarding her. ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

Aubrey Griffin vs Maddie Burke- Aubrey was a complete animal last game scoring 19 points...when Aubrey is on she is difficult to stop. Maddie Burke had 6 points in our last match-up which is right at her average. Aubrey will have to guard Maddie out to the three point line as Maddie averages 2 three pointers per game. Aubrey's skill-set ought to cause problems for Maddie. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Brook Mullin - Brook will play about 26 to 28 minutes so, Lou will be facing a few players in this match-up...maybe Bella Bunyan and Kaitlyn Oribel. Lou's contributions on both sides of the court continue to be impressive 16.1 points per game with 2 threes and taking charges. She scores baskets when they are needed, is a good finisher around the basket when she drives and is a lights out free-throw shooter. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl vs Lucy Olsen - Nice match-up here Lucy is their second best scoring option and did score 19 points in our last match-up. She is also Villanova's facilitator averaging 4.4 assists per game. She did score 19 points in her last outing against UConn so it really would be nice to see Nika hold her below her season average of 12.7 points. Nika needs to also stay out of foul trouble as this team needs her on the floor. Olsen helps Villanova offensively while Muhl averages 5 points less per game than Lucy...but, Nika's ability to pass the ball and create baskets for her teammates makes her just as valuable on the offensive end. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles - Game played at Villanova, fans ready to rock, Villanova hungry to move up in the Big East standings...even though UConn would like to solidify its lead in conference play, Villanova hungry to avenge their loss to UConn and earn a better seed in the NCAAs...finally, Maddy, Maddy, Maddy she can take a game over.... ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

Bench - Villanova has 12 points and 6.7 rebounds on the bench...with Caroline back UConn has 15 points and 9 rebounds. They bring great height with Caroline, Amari and Ayanna 6'5" and 6'2" and 6'2"...but, Caroline is an elite player...who can do things that no one else does. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Coaching - Geno, et al. vs...it doesn't matter...UConn's coaching staff doesn't give up anything to the opposition. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Because of Maddy Seigrist and the home court advantage this should be a close game...it could go either way but with Caroline back I am going to go with UConn

UCONN - 71
VILLANOVA - 67

MOV - 4

Great analysis! I hope you are right on the bench being a plus for UCONN.

 

[Cornell Lt]

Thanks again, Sensei!

I might shift your emphasis a little, away fro stopping Siegrist to stopping Olsen. Siegrist is gonna score. But Olsen can be stopped. Also, Dorka and Aaliyah have to box out Dalce better than they did last time.

Let their scorer (Siegrist) score but keep everyone else below their norm and you should be all right

 

[LwrcasefaN]

I'm not sure I would have AE guarding Siegrist all over the court. Use different defenders. And don't foul her. UCONN played pretty good defense last game. And I don't expect Lou to shoot 2 for 13. And they can't turn her into a human pinball now that Caroline is on the floor at times. The game was close here because Villanova had 13 more FG attempts.

 

[DEpup]

I would say try more to deny Siegrist the ball and then focus on defending. She can't score if she doesn't have the ball in her hands.

 

[YKCornelius]

Cferraro04, thanks for you laying out your positional analysis every game. I always find your info thought provoking and usually gives me some insight that I haven’t considered before. Keep ‘em coming!

I think I agree with Bone Dog – the key to our defense will be disrupting Olsen, not Siegrist. Since the last UConn game, Villanova has ramped up its ability to spread the floor. Like Creighton, spreading the floor has been Nova’s bread and butter for the past two years. I think they will use lots of screens and picks to afford the opportunity for Olsen and Siegrist to “read-and-react” with either a three behind a screen, or a drive to the basket to draw a foul or a dish out to their proven shooters around the arc.

The rest of the team are quality role players. Dalce is a very quick, athletic shot blocker who rarely shoots away from the basket. Burke is on the opposite side of the court – more than 80% of her shots are from beyond the arc. Mullin is an enigma – she rarely shoots at all, but when she does, it is usually a three. The bench provides more 3-point shooters.

Communication and crisp switch-offs for those covering Olsen will be paramount. Disrupting Olsen simplifies UConn’s defensive scheme to (a) moderately containing Siegrist (25 points?) while (b) covering the arc. A lot more manageable proposition, although easier said than done.

Since Nova has no answer for Aaliyah and Dorka inside, and all of the Wildcats’ recent wins have been against teams without UConn’s size, I think the only way Villanova wins this game is if two things happen: the Wildcats convert a high percentage of threes, and the Huskies shoot miserably from afar. Both are possibilities, but I am going with the Huskies to prevail in a hard fought battle, holding Villanova to under 60 points.

 

[Mike72fl]

In the score prediction thread, a lot of people predict UConn will lose the game tomorrow. It is possible. However, I saw quite a few have Villanova’s score in the 70s or even 80s. That is, dare I say, crazy! They will be lucky to score 65. I know, I know, they are playing at home, and they have one of the top scorer in Maddy. But UConn has 3 solid defenders who will take turns to keep her under her average.

I believe that UConn will win at least by 10 points. Why? Geno’s teams have always focused and well prepared for important games. And tomorrow’s game is important. Sure, the SC, TN, ND, and MD games were big, but they were big for the fan, TV, and social media attention. Tomorrow’s game could be the determination of who would win the BE regular tittle this year. Although UConn is selfless, they hate to lose or even share with other teams when it comes to tittles.

Another reason UConn will win is the return of Caroline. Her ability to shoot 3s, drive to the basket, and post up will open up for Lou, Dorka, and Aaliyah. Her defense is not as bad as people might think (I give it 6.74829 out of 10 ). She isn’t the fastest player, but her basketball IQ is high. She isn’t afraid the big moments and is level headed (never gets too high or too low during games). She is as cool as a cucumber!

 

[HopJim]

Good analysis although doubtful Edwards will guard Siegrist much during the game. This could be a bit of an issue since if not Siegrist, Aaliyah likely will have to guard a 3-point shooting forward, taking her away from the basket and rebounding position. In the same sense, if UConn sets its picks well, will be difficult for Villanova to stop Huskie drives to the basket. Predict that Aubrey, who has been quite the past few games, will start the game with quick drives to the basket, opening the floor for everyone else.

 

[Bone Dog]

Her defense is not as bad as people might think

Does anyone think this? Certainly not me. She's an excellent defender when she's not injured. Otherwise, I agree with your analysis.

 

[JBK]

Good analysis although doubtful Edwards will guard Siegrist much during the game. This could be a bit of an issue since if not Siegrist, Aaliyah likely will have to guard a 3-point shooting forward, taking her away from the basket and rebounding position. In the same sense, if UConn sets its picks well, will be difficult for Villanova to stop Husky drives to the basket. Predict that Aubrey, who has been quite the past few games, will start the game with quick drives to the basket, opening the floor for everyone else.

Would like to see us get Siegrist in foul trouble by attacking the hoop. I know she is smart but lacks size. Also, we have to get our transition game going. Our offense has not looked crisp when teams did not let us run. When Azzi gets back we can start some full course pressure which gets the game in a track meet.
TN and SC ran with us but the big East teams have slowed us up and packed it in and out offense has stalled