Game Analysis: UConn vs St. Johns

[cferraro04]

Well, apparently some of the uncertainty is resolved. We know that we will have Aaliyah Edwards back. I guessing we will have the full compliment of players back with Azzi seeing limited minutes. St. John's is not a high scoring team they average only 69.3 points per game. Their 3 point shooting is below average per game. They are a mature team with 8 of their team members being either a senior, a redshirt senior or a graduate transfer. St. John's starting line up consists of 3 red shirt seniors and two graduate transfers with the first two off the bench being both seniors. Talk about senior leadership...lol With all the senior leadership one has to wonder if this could develop into a "too many chiefs and not enough Indians scenario? (just being a little tongue in cheek here...lol That maturity does manifest itself in the fact that ST. John's guards do take care of the basketball. St John's averages only 14.8 turnovers and they cause 15 turnovers on their opponents averaging 17.8 points per game off turnovers.

Dorka Jurasz vs Raven Peeples - Raven is a good solid player averaging 6.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. Dorka, on the other hand, has been playing great since returning from the thumb injury. She is averaging a spectacularly strong double / double: 13.4 points and 11.6 rebounds. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aaliyah Edwards vs Jilian Archer - Jilian at 6'2" is a good match-up for Aaliyah 6'3". Jilian averages 8.9 points and 9.0 Rebounds per game while Aaliyah is averaging 17.9 points and 10.0 rebounds per game. If Aaliyah is back at full strength this should be: ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aubrey Griffin vs Kadaja Bailey - Kadaja Does a little of everything for the storm...She averages 13.6 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. She also facilitates the offense to a point with approximately 3 assists per game. A decent on ball defender and can hit the three. Aubrey Griffin is having a fantastic year after coming off being side-lined for a year with back injuries. Aubrey is averaging a solid 12.7 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. I know you heard it before but her athleticism disrupts opponents and throws them off their game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Jayla Everett - both of these players know how to score the basketball. Jayla is an outstanding player, a stat stuffer. Jayla 17.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, almost 3 three-pointers, 3.4 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks per game...now that is what I call a good all-around player. However, Lou is no slouch either while her stat-stuffing isn't as impressive as Jayla's it is pretty darn close. Lou averages 16.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1/4 assists, almost 3 three-pointers, .6 steals per game...not too shabby and against better competition playing with better players. I think this will be a great match-up tomorrow evening. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Nika Muhl vs Mimi Reid - Mimi isn't one of ST. John's top scorers but neither is Nika for UConn. Mimi averages 6.1 points per game while Nika averages 6.5 points per game; Nika has a little bit better nose for the ball as she is averaging 3.6 rebounds per game to Mimi's 1.6. Nika is a little bit better from three than Mimi as Nika averages 1 three pointer per game as opposed to Mimi who averages 1 three pointer ever 2 games. Defensively Nika averages 1.6 steals to Mimi's .9 steals. The big difference between them however is their impact on the team...Nika is averaging a nation best 9.9 assists per game...."are you kidding me"? while Mimi averages a respectable 3.6 assists per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Bench - UConn has Ducharme, Patterson, Ines and Amari who could come off the bench...and the wild card Azzi Fudd, depending on how many minutes she might be available for...if she comes off the bench she will be instant offense. ST. John's has Unique Drake, Danielle Patterson, Danielle Cosgrove coming off the bench and they are responsible for 15.5 points and 4.8 rebounds...meanwhile, UConn's bench without Azzi Fudd playing any minutes has been responsible for 15.1 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Intangibles - The game is being played at a neutral court (well at least as far as whether or not the court is on a campus). However, the court is in New York and while I expect a great UConn crowd at the game...the crowd should be a Storm crowd...but, I don't look to the intangibles in this game doing anything to influence the outcome. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Coaching - Joe Tartamella has an 182 / 134 win / loss record in his 10 years at the helm. His 182 wins makes him the winningest coach in St. John's history. However, I know I sound like a broken record...but...Geno, Chris, Jamelle and Morgan...nobody does it better. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

UConn - 85
St. Johns - 64

MOV - 21

 

[oldhusky]

I think you have to give the bench to St. Johns. Ducharme and Patterson are both out, so the only bench that is certain is Ines and Amari, the two players Geno would generally not use in a competitive game. Azzi is just a maybe, and if she plays 25-30 minutes effectively that alone might give the Uconn bench the edge, but if she plays it is probably limited minutes.

Regardless we can now put 5 very good starters on the floor, and unless one of them gets reduced minutes from injury or foul trouble, I think we will be ok.

 

[Glenn]

Nice write up, as usual. My guess is that their bench will be better, as I do not expect our two players on concussion protocol to play. And Azzi might not either.

 

[cferraro04]

Bench: I wasn't sure that Patterson and Ducharme were still in concussion protocols. So, I agree with the two previous posters that barring a surprise entry and significant minutes from Azzi Fudd that the ADVANTAGE swings back into ST. John's camp. The only 'x' factor is Fudd.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thank you again for a fine analysis, @cferraro04 . I think your assessments are just right.

Peeples was never a match for Liv or Dorka in the past, and I doubt very much she will be tomorrow either.

Archer is a bit more forceful and resourceful a player, but still not in Aaliyah’s league.

Bailey is the real energy of this team, she’s long and quick and can score at all levels… and Aubrey is the perfect defender against her. I would be surprised if Aubrey doesn’t simply shut her down. I’m glad especially Nika doesn’t have to deal with her.

I’m looking forward to a good game and an opportunity for the team to flex its muscles again.

 

[SLY63]

It is a little apples and oranges comparing production (points and rebounds averages) given the competition we have played and they have played to date.

 

[itsasport]

CD said that the two concussion protocol players are not going to travel to the game.

 

[Carnac]

I'm expecting a UConn win, but I look for St. John's to give UConn a better game than their last 3 conference opponents. I look for the starters to go 35+ minutes tomorrow. As always, thanks for putting this together for us. Much appreciated.

 

[Topdawg]

I am hoping Fudd will start playing again. CD said it was her decision. She has been cleared by the docs. The game flows much better with Azzi, Lou, and Aaliyah taking mid-range shots.

 

[msf22b]

A few years ago, Nan labeled me a contrarian...
I resisted that label

Today, after scanning this thread and the one with score predictions
I am feeling that role reprised.

I don't think we have enough information to conjecture the outcome and scores (the other thread) or to even compare matchups as in this thread.

I'm not into betting, know nothing about the intricacies of that world and could not find a line...It would be interesting to know what that world imagines what will transpire or if there are even just too many unknowns even for them....

Back to what we do know...(or don't)

1. this thread was published this evening. At that point CD had announced that
Caroline and Patterson were not making the trip. In the past, some players in
concussion regime were allowed to travel with the team...and this is far from an
expedition.
Draw whatever conclusions you want about the seriousness of their injuries...
About the completeness of the research that went into this piece, one can
have doubts.

2. Other than she is fit to play, we know nothing of Aaliyah's recovery or how
seriously she was injured. I, for one would not want to be betting on her
dominance under those circumstances.

3. Lou appeared in an interview and showed no signs of the virus that had been
bothering her...That is real information...hooray!

4. CD said that Azzi is a game time decision. Does that give anyone great
confidence...Haven't we heard that opera before?

The sum total of the above gives one precious little clarity of what will transpire tomorrow, especially with regard who shows up and how many minutes they can go.

It is certainly possible that all is simpatico, that Aaliyah is in beast mode and that Azzi comes in having not missed a beat...but that is all conjecture...There are folks that know much more (to a great extent)...the coaches and the players...but they're not talking.

But for intelligent posters on this site making wild, unsupported predictions and analysis pains me

Sorry.
I've never been that sort of fan.

 

[cferraro04]

A few years ago, Nan labeled me a contrarian...
I resisted that label

Today, after scanning this thread and the one with score predictions
I am feeling that role reprised.

I don't think we have enough information to conjecture the outcome and scores (the other thread) or to even compare matchups as in this thread.

I'm not into betting, know nothing about the intricacies of that world and could not find a line...It would be interesting to know what that world imagines what will transpire or if there are even just too many unknowns even for them....

Back to what we do know...(or don't)

1. this thread was published this evening. At that point CD had announced that
Caroline and Patterson were not making the trip. In the past, some players in
concussion regime were allowed to travel with the team...and this is far from an
expedition.
Draw whatever conclusions you want about the seriousness of their injuries...
About the completeness of the research that went into this piece, one can
have doubts.

2. Other than she is fit to play, we know nothing of Aaliyah's recovery or how
seriously she was injured. I, for one would not want to be betting on her
dominance under those circumstances.

3. Lou appeared in an interview and showed no signs of the virus that had been
bothering her...That is real information...hooray!

4. CD said that Azzi is a game time decision. Does that give anyone great
confidence...Haven't we heard that opera before?

The sum total of the above gives one precious little clarity of what will transpire tomorrow, especially with regard who shows up and how many minutes they can go.

It is certainly possible that all is simpatico, that Aaliyah is in beast mode and that Azzi comes in having not missed a beat...but that is all conjecture...There are folks that know much more (to a great extent)...the coaches and the players...but they're not talking.

But for intelligent posters on this site making wild, unsupported predictions and analysis pains me

Sorry.
I've never been that sort of fan.

Okay...points well taken...none of us has a crystal ball...and no one has an exclusive on the future...so, that will always make threads like this conjecture. So why do them then? That is the question you are asking. Obviously, you have no desire for such effort nor do you have much respect for any such effort given the importance you put on facts. The post above clearly acknowledged that it wasn't clear who exactly would come off the bench and while Chris Daley had released a statement I had not seen it at the time I wrote the above analysis which is why I put the disclaimer on the post regarding not knowing who would actually be coming off our bench. I also made it clear that there was no way to know if Azzi Fudd would play any significant minutes. There is no assumption that Edwards would be 100 percent or that she wouldn't be. The above is simply an exercise, indulged in to past the time and to create conversation until the actual facts and data points are established by actual game time play within the 94' x 54'.

The farther we get into the season the more data points we are able to gather. Sometimes data points are statistical; both individually and team-wide,. Sometimes they result from experiential knowledge based on player's history. Or the may be based on comments from the coaching staff or reports from the media. Accumulating additional data points do help in being able to predict possible outcomes. This is why bookies are able to handicap sporting events. At this point in the season...I would offer that the majority of the women basketball pundits are predicting that South Carolina has the best chance of winning the national championship. What could possible go wrong there?

These analyses are written during moments of spare time with information available at the time. They are not fully researched, peer supported masterpieces. They aren't intended to be...as there just isn't enough time to do that kind of thorough job...and even if there was...no crystal ball, no way to guarantee the future. Truth is any prognostication is conjecture, the situation is fluid and impossible to predict but, forecasting can be fun if you don't take it too serious. As is the case with the Huskies the past season and this one...you have to have a sense of humor because everything can change from day to day.

As for whether or not the above poster is a betting man it would be fair to say that by not betting you are in a sense betting...by marginalizing the original post because it is based on conjecture and assuming given the uncertainty of Aaliyah Edward's ability to be dominant following her sparring match with a court-side chair can also be seen as an interesting contradiction of fact. Yes we know nothing about her recovery except that if she was not cleared to play medically that the coaches would not allow her to play. She is playing and we will just have to see how resilient Aaliyah is.

As far as these exercises are concerned both the analysis and the prognostication threads they are examples of ways to have fun, being fans and creating conversation. Just killing time. The real fun starts at game-time.

Go Huskies!!!!

 

[Bone Dog]

I really enjoy these threads, and am grateful to the Sensei for taking the trouble to compose them. It’s a mix of conjecture and fact, sure, but it helps me begin to think about the game to come, gives me things to look for and, yes, is part of how many of us enjoy the season.

I don't think we have enough information to conjecture the outcome and scores (the other thread) or to even compare matchups as in this thread.

Just an observation about conjecture: it’s precisely what you do when you don’t have enough information. If we can only speak on the basis of facts, how can we speak at all before game time? Obviously that’s not what you’re demanding, which means even you would admit that we must often engage in conjecture.

As for me, I live in that nebulous zone between the past and the future called the present. It’s part conjecture and part fact.

 

[Skeets]

A few years ago, Nan labeled me a contrarian...
I resisted that label

Today, after scanning this thread and the one with score predictions
I am feeling that role reprised.

I don't think we have enough information to conjecture the outcome and scores (the other thread) or to even compare matchups as in this thread.

I'm not into betting, know nothing about the intricacies of that world and could not find a line...It would be interesting to know what that world imagines what will transpire or if there are even just too many unknowns even for them....

Back to what we do know...(or don't)

1. this thread was published this evening. At that point CD had announced that
Caroline and Patterson were not making the trip. In the past, some players in
concussion regime were allowed to travel with the team...and this is far from an
expedition.
Draw whatever conclusions you want about the seriousness of their injuries...
About the completeness of the research that went into this piece, one can
have doubts.

2. Other than she is fit to play, we know nothing of Aaliyah's recovery or how
seriously she was injured. I, for one would not want to be betting on her
dominance under those circumstances.

3. Lou appeared in an interview and showed no signs of the virus that had been
bothering her...That is real information...hooray!

4. CD said that Azzi is a game time decision. Does that give anyone great
confidence...Haven't we heard that opera before?

The sum total of the above gives one precious little clarity of what will transpire tomorrow, especially with regard who shows up and how many minutes they can go.

It is certainly possible that all is simpatico, that Aaliyah is in beast mode and that Azzi comes in having not missed a beat...but that is all conjecture...There are folks that know much more (to a great extent)...the coaches and the players...but they're not talking.

But for intelligent posters on this site making wild, unsupported predictions and analysis pains me

Sorry.
I've never been that sort of fan.

Nan was correct.

 

[Skeets]

I really enjoy these threads, and am grateful to the Sensei for taking the trouble to compose them. It’s a mix of conjecture and fact, sure, but it helps me begin to think about the game to come, gives me things to look for and, yes, is part of how many of us enjoy the season.


Just an observation about conjecture: it’s precisely what you do when you don’t have enough information. If we can only speak on the basis of facts, how can we speak at all before game time? Obviously that’s not what you’re demanding, which means even you would admit that we must often engage in conjecture.

As for me, I live in that nebulous zone between the past and the future called the present. It’s part conjecture and part fact.

Sounds like the Twilight Zone.

 

[HuskyNan]

We have CD and they don’t

 

[msf22b]

Okay...points well taken...none of us has a crystal ball...and no one has an exclusive on the future...so, that will always make threads like this conjecture. So why do them then? That is the question you are asking. Obviously, you have no desire for such effort nor do you have much respect for any such effort given the importance you put on facts. The post above clearly acknowledged that it wasn't clear who exactly would come off the bench and while Chris Daley had released a statement I had not seen it at the time I wrote the above analysis which is why I put the disclaimer on the post regarding not knowing who would actually be coming off our bench. I also made it clear that there was no way to know if Azzi Fudd would play any significant minutes. There is no assumption that Edwards would be 100 percent or that she wouldn't be. The above is simply an exercise, indulged in to past the time and to create conversation until the actual facts and data points are established by actual game time play within the 94' x 54'.

The farther we get into the season the more data points we are able to gather. Sometimes data points are statistical; both individually and team-wide,. Sometimes they result from experiential knowledge based on player's history. Or the may be based on comments from the coaching staff or reports from the media. Accumulating additional data points do help in being able to predict possible outcomes. This is why bookies are able to handicap sporting events. At this point in the season...I would offer that the majority of the women basketball pundits are predicting that South Carolina has the best chance of winning the national championship. What could possible go wrong there?

These analyses are written during moments of spare time with information available at the time. They are not fully researched, peer supported masterpieces. They aren't intended to be...as there just isn't enough time to do that kind of thorough job...and even if there was...no crystal ball, no way to guarantee the future. Truth is any prognostication is conjecture, the situation is fluid and impossible to predict but, forecasting can be fun if you don't take it too serious. As is the case with the Huskies the past season and this one...you have to have a sense of humor because everything can change from day to day.

As for whether or not the above poster is a betting man it would be fair to say that by not betting you are in a sense betting...by marginalizing the original post because it is based on conjecture and assuming given the uncertainty of Aaliyah Edward's ability to be dominant following her sparring match with a court-side chair can also be seen as an interesting contradiction of fact. Yes we know nothing about her recovery except that if she was not cleared to play medically that the coaches would not allow her to play. She is playing and we will just have to see how resilient Aaliyah is.

As far as these exercises are concerned both the analysis and the prognostication threads they are examples of ways to have fun, being fans and creating conversation. Just killing time. The real fun starts at game-time.

Go Huskies!!!!

Sensei

Just one point

I am not in anyway opposed to the analysis you do or the thread on
point spread. I read them and enjoy them myself.

This game felt different though, our hold on reality so tenuous.

 

[cferraro04]

Sensei

Just one point

I am not in anyway opposed to the analysis you do or the thread on
point spread. I read them and enjoy them myself.

This game felt different though, our hold on reality so tenuous.

Point taken…np that what a message board is for so we can all read a variety of opinions. You write well, your posts are well reasoned…nothing wrong with contrarian thinking…in fact it is exactly what makes all debate interesting.

 

[VA Huskie]

Sensei - I love these posts. Tells me a lot about the opposing players and how they match up with our. Thanks for taking the time to do the analysis each game.