Game Analysis - UConn vs Florida State

[DEpup]

Do we know yet who will actually be available to play?

 

[HuskyNan]

Massey Ratings - Florida State University Seminoles

Florida State University Seminoles scores and predictions for each game of the season's schedule

masseyratings.com

 

[TCC Kid]

Florida State's record is 10-1.
Only loss has been to Oklahoma State by 2 points.
They have played a lot of Somebody Universities..wins against
bigger names...Wisconsin/Houston/Florida.

Sounds like they have significant talent...hope we are rested/healthier/focused
with a great crowd in Uncasville pumping us up. National TV [espn]...FSU will
be psyched as well. Another good test for the Good Guys...take no team lightly.

The last 2 games Uconn led in the first half by as much as 9 (if not more). The Cowgirls are historically a good team, rarely inUconn's category.
The losses were with a skeleton crew, a very depleted team. In MD had they ANYONE of experience to sub in--I could see a W.

I admit, I see Uconn Ladies with rose colored glasses, but even with dark shades I see Uconn, if only marginally better in subs, winning most of the coming games. With Azzi, et al healthy and play ready--I like DeBerry's new persona--and Ayanna's game experience coming along, I feel very strong good vibes.

 

[MSGRET]

I am leaving for Chile tomorrow and won't return until Monday. So, I will be missing the game and will have to watch the replay. I will try to put my prognostication up when the thread goes up from the hotel in Chile. So, I thought I would post this analysis a little earlier than usual. I know there is always someone who will poo-poo the individual match-ups but, it should be noted that individual match-ups in an analysis are never, ever meant to be perfect...they are meant to establish some baseline conclusions by taking a look at the talent, stats of players based on the positions they play. There are always variables such as maybe the team will play zone and there won't be any 1 on 1 match-ups...but that should stop anyone from comparing the production at each position based on the players that play those positions. Also, because of the volatility of the health status of individual players it is hard to predict with any certainty who will actually be playing. So, this analysis will assume that both Nika Muhl and Dorka Jurasz will be back on Sunday. Finally, because UConn has played significantly more difficult competition than Florida State the stats are not exactly comparing oranges with oranges.

Mikayla Timpson 6'2", Sophomore, Forward vs Aaliyah Edwards 6'3", Junior, Forward - Statistically these players are the same player...Mikayla averages 13.4 points per game and 9.6 rebounds per game while Edwards averages 15.9 points per game and 9.7 rebounds per game. However, UConn is ranked number 5 in SOS and 1st in RPI while Florida State is 61 in SOS and 41 in RPI. Quite simply Florida State has not been challenged like UConn has. Due to the injuries that have plagued UConn Edwards has had to step it up and shoulder the burden and she has done so admirably. ADVANTAGE: UConn

Ta'niya Latson 5'8" Freshman, Guard vs Nika Muhl 5'10", Junior, Guard - Now this match-up on paper looks like a mis-match as Ta'niya is Florida States best offensive weapon and she is just a freshmen...this kid can and probably will be something special. She averages 25.5 points per game. Nika is going to have to be the pest that she is and with a little help from her teammates she will have to make Ta'niya uncomfortable. Taking her out of her comfort zone and limiting her offensive contributions could have a destabilizing effect on the rest of the team. Nika is the glue that keeps UConn rolling...he 10 assists per game lead the nation and while Nika won't likely match Ta'niya's offensive output she will make-up for it by making her teammates better. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Taylor O'Brien 5'9" Graduate, Guard vs Lou Lopez-Senechal 6'1" Graduate, Guard/Forward - Here is another case where the players are statistically pretty much the same. Taylor averages 16.3 points per game and 4.7 rebounds per game while Lou averages 17.3 points per game and 3.1 rebounds per game. However, Lou is more of a complete player than Taylor is...for example Lou averages 3 threes per game while Taylor isn't much of a perimeter shooter. And then there is the level of competition thing mentioned earlier in the analysis. ADVANTAGE - UConn

Erin Howard 6'1" Redshirt Senior, Forward vs Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Redshirt Junior, Forward - God, I love watching Aubrey play...she is such a specimen...her athleticism is more often than not going to catch you saying to yourself...wow! That was amazing. She is offensively a handful for Erin to handle...she has a quick first step that gets her by her opponents as she explodes to the rim. She has jumping ability and a nose for the ball which has resulted in her averaging 7.6 rebounds per game. She has let the offense come to her and has benefitted this year and is maintaining a 13.7 point average. She too has taken upon herself to step it up to compensate for all the injuries UConn players have acquired. Erin is no slouch she is a solid ball player, as a 5th year player brings a lot of experience and she is averaging 8.5 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game. She can shoot the three and she brings defensive intensity to her game with 1.6 steals per game. Aubrey also brings the defensive intensity with 2 steals per game...this match-up could end up being quite entertaining to watch. ADVANTAGE - UConn

Jazmine Masengill 6'0" Graduate, Guard vs Caroline Ducharme 6'2" Sophomore, Guard - Jazmine Massengill is a spark-plug for Florida State she leads her team in assists with 3.7 per game, she can hit the three (averages 1 per game), brings the defensive intensity and averages 1 steal per game. She is tailor made for Caroline as she works her way back into shape... She averages 6.3 points per game and 4.5 rebounds per game while Caroline averages 6 points per game and 3.5 rebounds per game. Statistically pretty evenly matched. We all know what we have with Caroline...she is struggling to get back into form with her past injuries and surgery. Each game she seems to be getting better and better. Unless she has a break-out game I don't see dominance at this position by either player. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Bench:
Florida State - Sarah Bejedi 5'7" guard: Mariana Valenzuela 6'2" Forward; O'mariah Gordon 5'4" guard; Brianna Tunage 6'1" guard
UConn - Dorka Juhasz 6'5" Forward; Ayanna Patterson 6'2" Forward; Amari DeBerry 6'5" Forward; Ines Bettencourt 5'9" guard.

Florida's bench produces 28.7 points per game and 11.9 rebounds per game while UConn's bench produces 18.4 points per game and 16.2 rebounds per game. If Dorka plays I believe she will see limited minutes and her production will be below her 10 points / 10 rebounds averages...remember she has only played in 2 games this season and has sat out the last 7 games...she will be coming back with a cast of something on her thumb which thankfully is not her shooting hand. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles: UConn is just better prepared based on the competition they have been playing. They are coming off a loss and they just haven't lost two games in a row (knock on wood) in a really long time. I think UConn brings a lot of size off the bench and Florida is going to have a hard time containing UConn in the paint. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Coaching: Geno and staff...just too good: ADVANTAGE UCONN

This will be a UConn win: 88 to 71 MOV - 17 points

I will add this to the Prognosticator's Prediction page so it can be used as your prediction.

 

[oldhusky]

It seems like from a statistical standpoint they rely very heavily on Latson and Timpson, one guard and one big. Their numbers are pretty spectacular but in Nika and Aaliyah I think we are well equipped defensively to make it hard on those two, and if we can contain them at least somewhat, I like our chances with the other matchups.

 

[jabstep]

I recently watched FSU on you tube and here is what I see.
1. Their offense is similar to how Arkansas played us. They are very guard oriented driving to the hoop for scores and fouls. They spread the floor and clear the middle for the guards to drive right. They don't shoot the three ball well at least not up to now.
2. On defense they pack the middle since they are not big. If we hit some three's that could change. We should win the rebound game and it could get us out on the break.
3. I think it will be a close game as FSU is a good defensive team and when they pack it in they close out very well on the 3 point line.

 

[Jmsdawg]

I recently watched FSU on you tube and here is what I see.
1. Their offense is similar to how Arkansas played us. They are very guard oriented driving to the hoop for scores and fouls. They spread the floor and clear the middle for the guards to drive right. They don't shoot the three ball well at least not up to now.
2. On defense they pack the middle since they are not big. If we hit some three's that could change. We should win the rebound game and it could get us out on the break.
3. I think it will be a close game as FSU is a good defensive team and when they pack it in they close out very well on the 3 point line.

I saw the Florida game, I was impressed with the defense, they can cause UConn a lot of trouble if Nika is not up to her usual standard. Got to be ready to face full court pressure.

 

[Conndog]

If FSU uses the press a lot, and Nika is coming back from concussion, then Ines is going to play some significant minutes- I don't think Geno will play Nika too much out of safety. Limiting turnovers will be one key today especially with advancing ball against pressure. Just going by the description of how FSU player Latson plays, she sounds similar to Aubrey with game centered on attacking & driving to the basket. Could be an interesting test, but for sure FSU doesn't play same kind of competition, and it's nice to be playing the game in Connecticut.

 

[Bone Dog]

I think we’ll win by a large margin. But FSU looks pretty good. Latson carries the scoring load, followed by Timpson. But they’re not one dimensional. 7 players scored in double figures last game and this seems to be a pattern. They prefer a pressing, running game and they chase down loose balls well. I guess we’ll see how a pressing team handles being pressed. It may turn out sort of like the Duke game.

Even without Dorka, we’re taller at every position and other than Latson we’re probably just as speedy. Latson is a quick-first-step scorer who slashes rather than shooting from the perimeter. I’m thinking she’s a bit like Diamond Johnson or Rory Harmon.

 

[HopJim]

With FSU not that tall, predict Aubrey will get maximum minutes and have a big game.

 

[Bigboote]

I hadn't realized Brooke Wyckoff had taken the reins of FSU. She's filling Sue's shoes admirably in her first season.

I'm looking forward to this game.

 

[ConwayGmck]

FSU has a strong scoring offense, but against a much weaker schedule. CT also has a strong scoring offense against a strong OOC schedule thus far. Both teams are allowing 64-65 ppg thus far, which place each outside of the top 200 in Scoring Defense, but again - against much different opponent slates. CT is the more disciplined and efficient shooting team - FSU is the better rebounding team, but may find themselves in the deficit here today. Battle-hardiness should pull CT through to victory today.......

 

[Bone Dog]

FSU has a strong scoring offense, but against a much weaker schedule. CT also has a strong scoring offense against a strong OOC schedule thus far. Both teams are allowing 64-65 ppg thus far, which place each outside of the top 200 in Scoring Defense, but again - against much different opponent slates. CT is the more disciplined and efficient shooting team - FSU is the better rebounding team, but may find themselves in the deficit here today. Battle-hardiness should pull CT through to victory today.......

I agree, though I'd add that every one of FSU's stat lines, including rebounding, has to be read against their weak OOC schedule. I suspect UConn will dominate every aspect of the game.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

These games right before Christmas and up until New Year's is a great time to assess your team's ability to mentally focus. As a student, I always dealt with the internal desire to go home and the reality that there was still work to be done..and done well. I expect a win, but would not be surprised if it was just by single digits.

 

[mrmojack]

Huskies are 10.5 point favorite

 

[Gus Mahler]

A little drift: I'm curious why seven players transferred out of FSU after last season. Loyalty to Sue?

Brooke has some great bona fides as a player. She appears to have done a good job during Sue's hiatus in 20-21. I'll be interested to see how Brooke makes in-game adjustments, calls time-outs, etc.

 

[Urshurak]

A little drift: I'm curious why seven players transferred out of FSU after last season. Loyalty to Sue?

Brooke has some great bona fides as a player. She appears to have done a good job during Sue's hiatus in 20-21. I'll be interested to see how Brooke makes in-game adjustments, calls time-outs, etc.

She did VERY well.

 

[cferraro04]

I will add this to the Prognosticator's Prediction page so it can be used as your prediction.

Thank you MSGRET