Game Analysis - UConn vs Florida State

[cferraro04]

I am leaving for Chile tomorrow and won't return until Monday. So, I will be missing the game and will have to watch the replay. I will try to put my prognostication up when the thread goes up from the hotel in Chile. So, I thought I would post this analysis a little earlier than usual. I know there is always someone who will poo-poo the individual match-ups but, it should be noted that individual match-ups in an analysis are never, ever meant to be perfect...they are meant to establish some baseline conclusions by taking a look at the talent, stats of players based on the positions they play. There are always variables such as maybe the team will play zone and there won't be any 1 on 1 match-ups...but that should stop anyone from comparing the production at each position based on the players that play those positions. Also, because of the volatility of the health status of individual players it is hard to predict with any certainty who will actually be playing. So, this analysis will assume that both Nika Muhl and Dorka Jurasz will be back on Sunday. Finally, because UConn has played significantly more difficult competition than Florida State the stats are not exactly comparing oranges with oranges.

Mikayla Timpson 6'2", Sophomore, Forward vs Aaliyah Edwards 6'3", Junior, Forward - Statistically these players are the same player...Mikayla averages 13.4 points per game and 9.6 rebounds per game while Edwards averages 15.9 points per game and 9.7 rebounds per game. However, UConn is ranked number 5 in SOS and 1st in RPI while Florida State is 61 in SOS and 41 in RPI. Quite simply Florida State has not been challenged like UConn has. Due to the injuries that have plagued UConn Edwards has had to step it up and shoulder the burden and she has done so admirably. ADVANTAGE: UConn

Ta'niya Latson 5'8" Freshman, Guard vs Nika Muhl 5'10", Junior, Guard - Now this match-up on paper looks like a mis-match as Ta'niya is Florida States best offensive weapon and she is just a freshmen...this kid can and probably will be something special. She averages 25.5 points per game. Nika is going to have to be the pest that she is and with a little help from her teammates she will have to make Ta'niya uncomfortable. Taking her out of her comfort zone and limiting her offensive contributions could have a destabilizing effect on the rest of the team. Nika is the glue that keeps UConn rolling...he 10 assists per game lead the nation and while Nika won't likely match Ta'niya's offensive output she will make-up for it by making her teammates better. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Taylor O'Brien 5'9" Graduate, Guard vs Lou Lopez-Senechal 6'1" Graduate, Guard/Forward - Here is another case where the players are statistically pretty much the same. Taylor averages 16.3 points per game and 4.7 rebounds per game while Lou averages 17.3 points per game and 3.1 rebounds per game. However, Lou is more of a complete player than Taylor is...for example Lou averages 3 threes per game while Taylor isn't much of a perimeter shooter. And then there is the level of competition thing mentioned earlier in the analysis. ADVANTAGE - UConn

Erin Howard 6'1" Redshirt Senior, Forward vs Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Redshirt Junior, Forward - God, I love watching Aubrey play...she is such a specimen...her athleticism is more often than not going to catch you saying to yourself...wow! That was amazing. She is offensively a handful for Erin to handle...she has a quick first step that gets her by her opponents as she explodes to the rim. She has jumping ability and a nose for the ball which has resulted in her averaging 7.6 rebounds per game. She has let the offense come to her and has benefitted this year and is maintaining a 13.7 point average. She too has taken upon herself to step it up to compensate for all the injuries UConn players have acquired. Erin is no slouch she is a solid ball player, as a 5th year player brings a lot of experience and she is averaging 8.5 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game. She can shoot the three and she brings defensive intensity to her game with 1.6 steals per game. Aubrey also brings the defensive intensity with 2 steals per game...this match-up could end up being quite entertaining to watch. ADVANTAGE - UConn

Jazmine Masengill 6'0" Graduate, Guard vs Caroline Ducharme 6'2" Sophomore, Guard - Jazmine Massengill is a spark-plug for Florida State she leads her team in assists with 3.7 per game, she can hit the three (averages 1 per game), brings the defensive intensity and averages 1 steal per game. She is tailor made for Caroline as she works her way back into shape... She averages 6.3 points per game and 4.5 rebounds per game while Caroline averages 6 points per game and 3.5 rebounds per game. Statistically pretty evenly matched. We all know what we have with Caroline...she is struggling to get back into form with her past injuries and surgery. Each game she seems to be getting better and better. Unless she has a break-out game I don't see dominance at this position by either player. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Bench:
Florida State - Sarah Bejedi 5'7" guard: Mariana Valenzuela 6'2" Forward; O'mariah Gordon 5'4" guard; Brianna Tunage 6'1" guard
UConn - Dorka Juhasz 6'5" Forward; Ayanna Patterson 6'2" Forward; Amari DeBerry 6'5" Forward; Ines Bettencourt 5'9" guard.

Florida's bench produces 28.7 points per game and 11.9 rebounds per game while UConn's bench produces 18.4 points per game and 16.2 rebounds per game. If Dorka plays I believe she will see limited minutes and her production will be below her 10 points / 10 rebounds averages...remember she has only played in 2 games this season and has sat out the last 7 games...she will be coming back with a cast of something on her thumb which thankfully is not her shooting hand. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles: UConn is just better prepared based on the competition they have been playing. They are coming off a loss and they just haven't lost two games in a row (knock on wood) in a really long time. I think UConn brings a lot of size off the bench and Florida is going to have a hard time containing UConn in the paint. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Coaching: Geno and staff...just too good: ADVANTAGE UCONN

This will be a UConn win: 88 to 71 MOV - 17 points

 

[Blakeon18]

Florida State's record is 10-1.
Only loss has been to Oklahoma State by 2 points.
They have played a lot of Somebody Universities..wins against
bigger names...Wisconsin/Houston/Florida.

Sounds like they have significant talent...hope we are rested/healthier/focused
with a great crowd in Uncasville pumping us up. National TV [espn]...FSU will
be psyched as well. Another good test for the Good Guys...take no team lightly.

 

[billybud]

The Noles have been dressing out only 9...short on subs.

Maybe Taylor O'Brien will be recovered from her leg (hamstring) injury.

Coach Brooke Wycoffe has been quoted as only wanting a roster of 10 so everyone would play and remain positive and involved.

You may remember her from when she played for the Connecticut Sun.

 

[Zarathustra]

I am leaving for Chile tomorrow and won't return until Monday. So, I will be missing the game and will have to watch the replay. I will try to put my prognostication up when the thread goes up from the hotel in Chile. So, I thought I would post this analysis a little earlier than usual. I know there is always someone who will poo-poo the individual match-ups but, it should be noted that individual match-ups in an analysis are never, ever meant to be perfect...they are meant to establish some baseline conclusions by taking a look at the talent, stats of players based on the positions they play. There are always variables such as maybe the team will play zone and there won't be any 1 on 1 match-ups...but that should stop anyone from comparing the production at each position based on the players that play those positions. Also, because of the volatility of the health status of individual players it is hard to predict with any certainty who will actually be playing. So, this analysis will assume that both Nika Muhl and Dorka Jurasz will be back on Sunday. Finally, because UConn has played significantly more difficult competition than Florida State the stats are not exactly comparing oranges with oranges.

Mikayla Timpson 6'2", Sophomore, Forward vs Aaliyah Edwards 6'3", Junior, Forward - Statistically these players are the same player...Mikayla averages 13.4 points per game and 9.6 rebounds per game while Edwards averages 15.9 points per game and 9.7 rebounds per game. However, UConn is ranked number 5 in SOS and 1st in RPI while Florida State is 61 in SOS and 41 in RPI. Quite simply Florida State has not been challenged like UConn has. Due to the injuries that have plagued UConn Edwards has had to step it up and shoulder the burden and she has done so admirably. ADVANTAGE: UConn

Ta'niya Latson 5'8" Freshman, Guard vs Nika Muhl 5'10", Junior, Guard - Now this match-up on paper looks like a mis-match as Ta'niya is Florida States best offensive weapon and she is just a freshmen...this kid can and probably will be something special. She averages 25.5 points per game. Nika is going to have to be the pest that she is and with a little help from her teammates she will have to make Ta'niya uncomfortable. Taking her out of her comfort zone and limiting her offensive contributions could have a destabilizing effect on the rest of the team. Nika is the glue that keeps UConn rolling...he 10 assists per game lead the nation and while Nika won't likely match Ta'niya's offensive output she will make-up for it by making her teammates better. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Taylor O'Brien 5'9" Graduate, Guard vs Lou Lopez-Senechal 6'1" Graduate, Guard/Forward - Here is another case where the players are statistically pretty much the same. Taylor averages 16.3 points per game and 4.7 rebounds per game while Lou averages 17.3 points per game and 3.1 rebounds per game. However, Lou is more of a complete player than Taylor is...for example Lou averages 3 threes per game while Taylor isn't much of a perimeter shooter. And then there is the level of competition thing mentioned earlier in the analysis. ADVANTAGE - UConn

Erin Howard 6'1" Redshirt Senior, Forward vs Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Redshirt Junior, Forward - God, I love watching Aubrey play...she is such a specimen...her athleticism is more often than not going to catch you saying to yourself...wow! That was amazing. She is offensively a handful for Erin to handle...she has a quick first step that gets her by her opponents as she explodes to the rim. She has jumping ability and a nose for the ball which has resulted in her averaging 7.6 rebounds per game. She has let the offense come to her and has benefitted this year and is maintaining a 13.7 point average. She too has taken upon herself to step it up to compensate for all the injuries UConn players have acquired. Erin is no slouch she is a solid ball player, as a 5th year player brings a lot of experience and she is averaging 8.5 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game. She can shoot the three and she brings defensive intensity to her game with 1.6 steals per game. Aubrey also brings the defensive intensity with 2 steals per game...this match-up could end up being quite entertaining to watch. ADVANTAGE - UConn

Jazmine Masengill 6'0" Graduate, Guard vs Caroline Ducharme 6'2" Sophomore, Guard - Jazmine Massengill is a spark-plug for Florida State she leads her team in assists with 3.7 per game, she can hit the three (averages 1 per game), brings the defensive intensity and averages 1 steal per game. She is tailor made for Caroline as she works her way back into shape... She averages 6.3 points per game and 4.5 rebounds per game while Caroline averages 6 points per game and 3.5 rebounds per game. Statistically pretty evenly matched. We all know what we have with Caroline...she is struggling to get back into form with her past injuries and surgery. Each game she seems to be getting better and better. Unless she has a break-out game I don't see dominance at this position by either player. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Bench:
Florida State - Sarah Bejedi 5'7" guard: Mariana Valenzuela 6'2" Forward; O'mariah Gordon 5'4" guard; Brianna Tunage 6'1" guard
UConn - Dorka Juhasz 6'5" Forward; Ayanna Patterson 6'2" Forward; Amari DeBerry 6'5" Forward; Ines Bettencourt 5'9" guard.

Florida's bench produces 28.7 points per game and 11.9 rebounds per game while UConn's bench produces 18.4 points per game and 16.2 rebounds per game. If Dorka plays I believe she will see limited minutes and her production will be below her 10 points / 10 rebounds averages...remember she has only played in 2 games this season and has sat out the last 7 games...she will be coming back with a cast of something on her thumb which thankfully is not her shooting hand. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles: UConn is just better prepared based on the competition they have been playing. They are coming off a loss and they just haven't lost two games in a row (knock on wood) in a really long time. I think UConn brings a lot of size off the bench and Florida is going to have a hard time containing UConn in the paint. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Coaching: Geno and staff...just too good: ADVANTAGE UCONN

This will be a UConn win: 88 to 71 MOV - 17 points

I appreciate your thoughtful work! Have a safe trip! Z

 

[oldhusky]

This game appeared to be a mild test but not too much of a worry before Paige and subsequent injuries occurred. Now the streak of not losing two in a row for seemingly forever is very much on the line. I could assume Nika and Dorka will be back and have much more confidence, but we don't know that yet.

Many players have missed far more than one game or one week from a concussion, and we don't really know any more details about the specifics regarding Nika, so at least this far in advance of the game her return is speculation. Based on her game day decision kind of status for several games now, you might wonder if Dorka wants to return if she is not pretty much 100%. That would be speculation as well, but it appears that she has had medical clearance to play for several games now.

You could make a case for both players being back, neither one being available, or just one of them. The odds of keeping the streak intact varies a great deal depending on who is available. It would be a shame if it was broken because of bad luck with injuries, but of course over a roughly 30 year span, like this streak, every great program will be plagued by bad periods with multiple injuries at some point. Having many very talented players can enable a program like this to survive those periods, but that kind of a test has been taken to extremes the last two years.

 

[sun]

FSU plays a game on Thursday.
Its players include 4 seniors/ graduates, a senior redshirt, 2 international players and 4 transfers.

In UConn's favor is that it's being played close to home in CT.
FSU has 2 players that are 6'2" & 1 that's 6'3".

- Florida State University

Florida State University

seminoles.com

 

[billybud]

UConn....NET # 5
FSU........NET #35

UConn.....RPI #1
FSU.........RPI #35

 

[Zarathustra]

FSU plays a game on Thursday.
Its players include 4 seniors/ graduates, a senior redshirt, 2 international players and 4 transfers.

In UConn's favor is that it's being played close to home in CT.
FSU has 2 players that are 6'2" & 1 that's 6'3".

- Florida State University

Florida State University

seminoles.com

Check out the Florida State Schedule. They just beat Texas Southern, a 0-8 team, by
the score of 108 -51. Next up is the " Blue Hose" of Presbyterian, who is 3 - 6 in
the Big South. Florida State's high scorer is a freshman ' 8", who scored
34 points against Texas Southern and is averaging over 26 ppg. Their coach played for the Connecticut Sun in
the WNBA. So.......another prognosticator's dilemma? How to handicap this game.??

 

[sun]

FSU beat Purdue 76-75.
MD beat Purdue 77-74.

There may not be very much difference in strength between FSU & MD even though they have much different rankings.
The FSU-UConn outcome can depend on how each team performs under pressure.
It's a stress test for both teams.

 

[Ozimoto]

With the way the injuries are playing out, the team is now stronger in the front court than they are in the back court. My feeling is that FSU is not a particularly prolific 3 point shooting team as compared to Maryland so if the Huskies can limit their turnovers (even if they have to use the depleted lineup again) I think they have more than a puncher's chance to win this game. The key will be controlling their leading scorer, a relatively small, quick guard. Unfortunately, that has been a problem for the Huskies lately. If they can keep Latson from having a career day the streak of avoiding back to back losses should remain intact.

 

[LoboDays]

Almost every team we play will offer a challenge until Azzi and her point production return. If teams focus on holding down Lou, games will be won or lost in the 4th quarter. Defense will be key. Dorka’s return is very important too. We can’t expect AE to kill herself every game for 40 minutes. She has been the pillar holding up this team.

 

[sun]

Against Notre Dame, Princeton & MD, Aubrey's & Edwards' points scored were:

Aubrey - 3, 29, 12.
Edwards - 14, 8, 25.

They both combined to score 37 points the last 2 games, but it's unclear how Dorka will impact their point total.

 

[Mdoggie]

Dorka will impact Patterson more than Aubrey or Edwards production.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Some tidbits on Florida State:

The last 3 games before they play UConn will be against very weak teams.
4 out of their top 5 scorers are smallish guards
Their tallest girl is 6'3 and averages 5 points (remember they played 8 out of 11 games against so-so teams)
They average 15 assists and 15 turnovers a game
Against the 7 best opponents they played (including Kent St., Georgia State, etc.) they gave up 75 points each game.
In those 7 games their MOV was 6 points.
Their game is more one on one and penetrating guard play - - quickness is their virtue.
Florida State carries only 10 players.
Timson (6'2) is the most dangerous big girl --averages 13 pts
Latson and O'Brien are the top scorers - quick guards

 

[Next 12]

Right now my only concern is the no 2 losses in a row streak that might be in jeopardy. If we had Paige and Azzi, the thought would never cross my mind. Our subs are playing courageously and I have confidence if Nika and Dorka is back , there is nothing to think about. Uconn needs one more shooter to emerge and contribute 16-18 points to the subs now playing. It is frustrating to see all the points we have sitting on the bench. Soldier on Uconn, you can do it!!! GO HUSKIES!!!

 

[Hist-teacher]

I'm a bit concerned that Edwards is logging a lot of minutes this early in the year but Geno has little choice. Hopefully Dorka can help alleviate her time and give her some badly needed rest. If we play defense that way we've been (our two loses aside) with Dorka and Nika back than we should be fine.

 

[npignatjr]

Against Notre Dame, Princeton & MD, Aubrey's & Edwards' points scored were:

Aubrey - 3, 29, 12.
Edwards - 14, 8, 25.

They both combined to score 37 points the last 2 games, but it's unclear how Dorka will impact their point total.

Dorka, if ready, will start.

 

[HuskylnSC]

If Nika is back, I'm interested to see if Ines has elevated herself on the trust scale to earn more significant minutes (8-10) as opposed to garbage time minutes.

 

[Cuango]

I’m guessing Dorka will not start, Caroline will join Aaliyah, Lou, Aubrey, and Nika as starters. However, if she is effective, Dorka may equal or surpass Caroline in minutes played. I am also looking for a breakout game soon from Yanna. Perhaps (fingers crossed) this will be it! If Nika and Dorka can play, I like our chances. If not, it will be a tough game for sure!

 

[hard2please]

these are all good tests for the back ups... will make us much stronger come march

 

[Carnac]

I am leaving for Chile tomorrow and won't return until Monday. So, I will be missing the game and will have to watch the replay. I will try to put my prognostication up when the thread goes up from the hotel in Chile. So, I thought I would post this analysis a little earlier than usual. I know there is always someone who will poo-poo the individual match-ups but, it should be noted that individual match-ups in an analysis are never, ever meant to be perfect...they are meant to establish some baseline conclusions by taking a look at the talent, stats of players based on the positions they play. There are always variables such as maybe the team will play zone and there won't be any 1 on 1 match-ups...but that should stop anyone from comparing the production at each position based on the players that play those positions. Also, because of the volatility of the health status of individual players it is hard to predict with any certainty who will actually be playing. So, this analysis will assume that both Nika Muhl and Dorka Jurasz will be back on Sunday. Finally, because UConn has played significantly more difficult competition than Florida State the stats are not exactly comparing oranges with oranges.

Mikayla Timpson 6'2", Sophomore, Forward vs Aaliyah Edwards 6'3", Junior, Forward - Statistically these players are the same player...Mikayla averages 13.4 points per game and 9.6 rebounds per game while Edwards averages 15.9 points per game and 9.7 rebounds per game. However, UConn is ranked number 5 in SOS and 1st in RPI while Florida State is 61 in SOS and 41 in RPI. Quite simply Florida State has not been challenged like UConn has. Due to the injuries that have plagued UConn Edwards has had to step it up and shoulder the burden and she has done so admirably. ADVANTAGE: UConn

Ta'niya Latson 5'8" Freshman, Guard vs Nika Muhl 5'10", Junior, Guard - Now this match-up on paper looks like a mis-match as Ta'niya is Florida States best offensive weapon and she is just a freshmen...this kid can and probably will be something special. She averages 25.5 points per game. Nika is going to have to be the pest that she is and with a little help from her teammates she will have to make Ta'niya uncomfortable. Taking her out of her comfort zone and limiting her offensive contributions could have a destabilizing effect on the rest of the team. Nika is the glue that keeps UConn rolling...he 10 assists per game lead the nation and while Nika won't likely match Ta'niya's offensive output she will make-up for it by making her teammates better. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Taylor O'Brien 5'9" Graduate, Guard vs Lou Lopez-Senechal 6'1" Graduate, Guard/Forward - Here is another case where the players are statistically pretty much the same. Taylor averages 16.3 points per game and 4.7 rebounds per game while Lou averages 17.3 points per game and 3.1 rebounds per game. However, Lou is more of a complete player than Taylor is...for example Lou averages 3 threes per game while Taylor isn't much of a perimeter shooter. And then there is the level of competition thing mentioned earlier in the analysis. ADVANTAGE - UConn

Erin Howard 6'1" Redshirt Senior, Forward vs Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Redshirt Junior, Forward - God, I love watching Aubrey play...she is such a specimen...her athleticism is more often than not going to catch you saying to yourself...wow! That was amazing. She is offensively a handful for Erin to handle...she has a quick first step that gets her by her opponents as she explodes to the rim. She has jumping ability and a nose for the ball which has resulted in her averaging 7.6 rebounds per game. She has let the offense come to her and has benefitted this year and is maintaining a 13.7 point average. She too has taken upon herself to step it up to compensate for all the injuries UConn players have acquired. Erin is no slouch she is a solid ball player, as a 5th year player brings a lot of experience and she is averaging 8.5 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game. She can shoot the three and she brings defensive intensity to her game with 1.6 steals per game. Aubrey also brings the defensive intensity with 2 steals per game...this match-up could end up being quite entertaining to watch. ADVANTAGE - UConn

Jazmine Masengill 6'0" Graduate, Guard vs Caroline Ducharme 6'2" Sophomore, Guard - Jazmine Massengill is a spark-plug for Florida State she leads her team in assists with 3.7 per game, she can hit the three (averages 1 per game), brings the defensive intensity and averages 1 steal per game. She is tailor made for Caroline as she works her way back into shape... She averages 6.3 points per game and 4.5 rebounds per game while Caroline averages 6 points per game and 3.5 rebounds per game. Statistically pretty evenly matched. We all know what we have with Caroline...she is struggling to get back into form with her past injuries and surgery. Each game she seems to be getting better and better. Unless she has a break-out game I don't see dominance at this position by either player. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Bench:
Florida State - Sarah Bejedi 5'7" guard: Mariana Valenzuela 6'2" Forward; O'mariah Gordon 5'4" guard; Brianna Tunage 6'1" guard
UConn - Dorka Juhasz 6'5" Forward; Ayanna Patterson 6'2" Forward; Amari DeBerry 6'5" Forward; Ines Bettencourt 5'9" guard.

Florida's bench produces 28.7 points per game and 11.9 rebounds per game while UConn's bench produces 18.4 points per game and 16.2 rebounds per game. If Dorka plays I believe she will see limited minutes and her production will be below her 10 points / 10 rebounds averages...remember she has only played in 2 games this season and has sat out the last 7 games...she will be coming back with a cast of something on her thumb which thankfully is not her shooting hand. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles: UConn is just better prepared based on the competition they have been playing. They are coming off a loss and they just haven't lost two games in a row (knock on wood) in a really long time. I think UConn brings a lot of size off the bench and Florida is going to have a hard time containing UConn in the paint. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Coaching: Geno and staff...just too good: ADVANTAGE UCONN

This will be a UConn win: 88 to 71 MOV - 17 points

Great post. I doubt many of us have been following FSU. Your scouting report is very helpful to us in figuring out who is who, and which players to watch. Have a safe trip.

 

[billybud]

The Noles have been vulnerable to the 3 point shot as folks shoot over them....

A smallish team, they make points in transition. They were ahead of Wisconsin by 17 and Wisconsin made a furious chatge by hitting 3's to pull it close...a couple of late free throws by FSU allowed them to pull away.

Purdue hit 44% of their 3's while the Noles hit 25%.

Noles shoot under .500 and .310 (7 per game) from the arc. Have averaged 16 free throws per game.

 

[Monte]

Watch Florida State play tomorrow(Thursday) at 6:00 on the ACC Network channel. Think about UCONN's play against Maryland. FL.ST. beat Purdue by 1 point........Purdue lost to Maryland by only 3 points.

This could be a challenge for UCONN on Sunday, but be all know it really centers on WHICH PLAYERS will be available for the Huskies.

 

[Urshurak]

With the way the injuries are playing out, the team is now stronger in the front court than they are in the back court. My feeling is that FSU is not a particularly prolific 3 point shooting team as compared to Maryland so if the Huskies can limit their turnovers (even if they have to use the depleted lineup again) I think they have more than a puncher's chance to win this game. The key will be controlling their leading scorer, a relatively small, quick guard. Unfortunately, that has been a problem for the Huskies lately. If they can keep Latson from having a career day the streak of avoiding back to back losses should remain intact.

If it’s one thing we have seen from teams that play UConn is that they shoot lights out from 3, even if they never have before. It’s actually unbelievable. So, yeah, I expect at least 10 3-pointers from FSU.