Game Analysis - NCAA - Game 5 - UConn v. South Carolina

[husky98]

South Carolina fan here. It's fun reading opinions from the opponents viewpoint.

My personal thoughts are that Sarah and Azzi are clearly the best two players on the court but after that it gets fuzzy. I personally believe our five starters are better than UConn's #3 starter. So if I had to rank them it would be something like Sarah, Azzi, Joyce, Raven, Taniya, Tessa, Madina, KK, Ashlyn, Serah.

I don't think UConn has been tested by a defense of South Carolina's caliber, so it's hard to figure out how they would fare. North Carolina is probably the best defensive comp of a similar style, but I still think we're a few levels above their defense when comparing our size, length and athleticism.

Also, just looking at the UConn schedule, I don't see many teams with imposing post play, so I feel like UConn is fairly untested in that area as well. Iowa or North Carolina would probably be best comps and in both games it looks like the opponent won the rebounding battle.

Anyways, I think the top four teams are a step above the rest, so we kind of have to throw out the stat books as I don't think they'll be reliable in predicting the final four and title matchups. Most likely, I think South Carolina will try to take advantage of the Shade matchup against Latson and whoever is guarding Okot. I kind of see those as our exploitation points. Makeer could also be a weapon off the bench.

I think both teams will struggle to score and expect a game in the 60s. I'm predicting 68-64 Gamecocks.

Good analysis, I agree with everything but the outcome.

I think it would be interesting to add in both teams best bench players into the player comparison, I have a feeling Blanca and Kaylieigh, and possibly Jana, will be playing more minutes than Serah.

 

[DemonDeac22]

It’s great to hear all of the differing opinions about the individual players and who has faced what defense. I can’t wait until they play - this one should be a back and forth battle between two great teams until the final buzzer sounds.

 

[DefenseBB]

So you think KK is even with Raven? Okie dokie

What is even worse is he thinks Ash is better than a 3 time all-american....

Here's my take on this
1. Strong is better than Edwards (Edwards is really good but anyone compare to the National POY would lose on the comparison)
2. Azzi is better than Tessa
3. Raven is slightly better than KK due to her superior shooting this year.
4. Latson is better than Ash
5. Okot is better than Williams

Bench. UConn is better than SC
Coaching. Geno is by far better than Dawn, even she admitted as much after the TCU game given how offensive his teams are and how hard they are to stop.

UConn 80 SC 70

 

[Tngamecock]

This year, and aggregating all years, by SRS, UConn (in the lowly Big East and AAC) is the premier team.

• The same team that has 12 championships to 12 for the SEC combined.

It will be settled on the court, with two teams, relatively injury-free, in contrast to UConn’s biblical plague years when Dawn won her championships.

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You didn’t need all this. And I doubt anyone including me read it. It was a simple question. And my point is, knowing that UConn is one of the elite teams in the nation and in history, would their defensive stats be the same if they played a tougher schedule?

Your coach tries to schedule very tough teams out of conference. He is the greatest of all time. I understand that. I’m just saying, forget history, this year would this UConn team have the best defense statistically in the nation if they played in the Southeastern conference? It’s not a slight to anyone.

And for the record, I think UConn is going to win this game. I hope not but my gut tells me it will be one of those nights where they have three or four people hot from three point land. If that’s the case, we are in trouble.

 

[jeff30189]

All of you so-called experts are welcomed to put up your own version of this analysis for us to tear apart.

Its not just offense that matters in the comparisons. Yeah, Ash probably isn't even, but KK is a coin flip with her defensive tenacity. Our bench is superior, and I'd argue the coaching staff is superior. Gets us to the same prediction of Uconn by 7, but some of the hyperbole here is funny even by Boneyard standards.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

You didn’t need all this. And I doubt anyone including me read it. It was a simple question. And my point is, knowing that UConn is one of the elite teams in the nation and in history, would their defensive stats be the same if they played a tougher schedule?

Your coach tries to schedule very tough teams out of conference. He is the greatest of all time. I understand that. I’m just saying, forget history, this year would this UConn team have the best defense statistically in the nation if they played in the Southeastern conference? It’s not a slight to anyone.

And for the record, I think UConn is going to win this game. I hope not but my gut tells me it will be one of those nights where they have three or four people hot from three point land. If that’s the case, we are in trouble.

You posed a hypothetical (and an assumption that just because it is the SEC…) and I answered with recent measurable history.

• The premier coaches in the game are still there;
• Geno and the players says this year’s defensive intensity is something else &1;
• 5 of the top players last year are still there in our Top 9.

&1: UConn Playing At Fastest Pace

 

[cferraro04]

What is even worse is he thinks Ash is better than a 3 time all-american....

Here's my take on this
1. Strong is better than Edwards (Edwards is really good but anyone compare to the National POY would lose on the comparison)
2. Azzi is better than Tessa
3. Raven is slightly better than KK due to her superior shooting this year.
4. Latson is better than Ash
5. Okot is better than Williams

Bench. UConn is better than SC
Coaching. Geno is by far better than Dawn, even she admitted as much after the TCU game given how offensive his teams are and how hard they are to stop.

UConn 80 SC 70

Not to be confrontational, but when you start your post with a tongue-in-cheek comment like the following, "What is even worse is he thinks Ash is better than a 3-time all-American...." I have little choice but to take issue with the comment..

Number 1: I didn't say Ash was better than Latson. I called the match-up EVEN because Ash's value is her constant defensive pressure, her constant movement on offense, and UConn's overall team defense.

Number 2: Latson is not a 3-time all-american. She was an All-American 2nd team in 2025, and she was an All-American honorable mention in 2023 and 2024.

When comparing players' impact on a single game, it is important to look at shots taken and how many minutes they played. Until this year, Latson has taken twice as many shots as Shade each year. Except this past year, when Shade was in a shooting funk, Shade's FG percentage eclipsed Latson's.

AT FSU, Latson was the go-to...she hoisted up 498 shots in her Freshman year, shooting .455 FG percentage while playing 29.5 minutes per game. She took over 600 shots in her Sophomore outing, shooting .458 FG percentage, while playing 30.9 minutes. And she took 565 shots in her final year at FSU, shooting .451 FG percentage while playing 30.1 minutes per game. In South Carolina, where she was on a team with a potent offense, her shot count came back down to earth, and she has taken only 345 shots and is shooting .496 while playing 28.2 minutes per game

Ash's numbers over her three years at UConn: In her freshman outing due to injuries, she had to step into the starting line-up, where she took 347 shots, shooting .481 FG percentage (she averaged 11 points per game). In her Sophomore year...players became healthy and Shade's minutes dropped from 31.5 per game to 22 minutes per game (incidentally, UConn won a national championship that year). She took 250 shots, shooting .480 FG percentage. This year, Shade has been in a shooting slump and has been averaging 26.8 minutes per game, taking 281 shots, and is shooting .402 FG percentage.

My conclusion after reviewing both players' career stats and putting into perspective the incorrect claim that Latson is a 3-time All-American remains unchanged. I think this is an EVEN match-up. I believe Shade will prevent Latson from going off for 28 points as she did against Oklahoma. Given the rest of the team dynamics with regard to ADVANTAGES elsewhere, if Shade holds Latson at or around her average, she will have done her job.

You were more generous than I was with regard to the score. I picked UConn by 7 as I believe this is going to be an exciting back-and-forth game.

 

[Rb335]

It will be interesting to see the defensive match up of Ash on Ta’Niya. Ash’s defense and movement have improved this year. But Ta’Niya could cause problems for her on that end. Could see Geno going to K9 to guard Raven and moving KK on to Ta’Niya for stretches.

Blanca could once again be the IT factor given the mismatches her and Sarah can create when they’re on the floor together.

I think this game will be a lot tougher for us than last years matchup with them. SC has added/developed some really solid pieces and they now have a more balanced inside/out build (same can be said of UCLA), should be a great game.

Also could be a game where Geno goes big with Blanca replacing Shade. That would allow Azzi to match up with Latson and Blanca to add size against the shooting of Tessa Johnson.

 

[Tngamecock]

Also could be a game where Geno goes big with Blanca replacing Shade. That would allow Azzi to match up with Latson and Blanca to add size against the shooting of Tessa Johnson.

“Blanca can guard Tessa”….K. Mulkey
(Sorry, I couldn’t resist)