Game Analysis - NCAA - Game 5 - UConn v. South Carolina | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Game Analysis - NCAA - Game 5 - UConn v. South Carolina

Dogstar said:
Tht may be true, but on the other side we also have an X-factor who plays starter minutes and who's a matchup nightmare both offensively and defensively. 🤔
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I assume you are referring to Blana Quinonez, and I agree with you about that.

@GamecockFam , I "liked" your post because of the relative objectivity of your analysis and the courteous tone in which it was delivered, but NOT because I agree with your forecast of the outcome. But you knew that, right?

Where would you put Blanca in the list of "Sarah, Azzi, Joyce, Raven, Taniya, Tessa, Madina, KK, Ashlyn, Serah"? I think I would put her right after Joyce Edwards, and (on your side) I would put Tessa Johnson as the second-best SC player, ahead of Raven and Latson. If the SC coaching staff has failed to scout Blanca because she is not in the starting lineup, they are in for a surprise (but I doubt that is the case).

Every time I watch an SC game, I think that Tessa Johnson looks and plays like a UConn player. She is unselfish, she seems to see the court really well, and she is just so smart (in a basketball sense)! I think that if Geno could "draft" one player from the SC roster, she is the one he would pick.

We all know who Dawn would draft from the UConn roster, though, and that's why there will be no agreement to trade draft choices.
 
"I don't think UConn has been tested by a defense of South Carolina's caliber, so it's hard to figure out how they would fare. North Carolina is probably the best defensive comp of a similar style, but I still think we're a few levels above their defense when comparing our size, length, and athleticism."

Let's see, now:

1. Sarah Strong is the best player in the country.
2. UConn's defense is rated number one.
3. South Carolina's defense is ranked 6th.

Clearly, this is going to be a good defensive match-up, but to the question of South Carolina's defense being a few levels above UConn's defense based on size, length, and athleticism, this is not borne out by the facts:

1. South Carolina averages 9.6 steals per game
2. UConn averages 15.7 steals per game.
3. South Carolina turns the ball over 12.8 times per game.
4. UConn turns the ball over 12.7 times per game,
5. South Carolina forces its opponents to turn the ball over 17.9 times per game.
6. UConn forces its opponents to turn the ball over 24.3 times per game.
7. South Carolina averages 29 points off turnovers.
8. UConn averages 32.9 points off turnovers.
9. South Carolina holds its opponents to 57.5 points per game while scoring 87.1 points per game.
10. UConn holds its opponents to 50.1 points per game while scoring 87.9 points per game.
11. South Carolina averages 5.9 blocks per game.
12 UConn averages 5.0 blocks per game.

I think the basketball gurus got this one right. We have the number one defense going up against the number six defense. This will be an epic defensive battle. Whoever brings their "A" game will prevail. I was extremely fair in my analysis. In the guard play, while offensively, South Carolina's guards have played offensively better all season, UConn, conversely, has defensively played better all season. I said in the analysis, normally I would give the ADVANTAGE to the higher offensive output, but I believe that when you factor in the individual defense of KK and Shade, and then consider there is little to no drop off when you bring in Kayleigh Heckel and Blanca Quinones, I think an EVEN ADVANTAGE is reasonable. Finally, when you take into consideration that UConn's scoring margin is 37.8 points and South Carolina's scoring margin is 29.6, I think a 7-point UConn victory is also reasonable.

Of course, this is the final four, and any one player or any team can have an inspirational performance, and you can throw all the numbers out of the window. I am expecting a nail-biter of a game on Friday, followed up by another exciting nail-biter in the Championship game.
 
Dogstar said:
"I don't think UConn has been tested by a defense of South Carolina's caliber"

Well with UConn having the best defensive in the nation (plus the highest scoring offense) it's hard to believe that SC has played a team of UConns caliber. But we'll see.
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I would argue that Texas is of a similar caliber on defense. I don't see that much difference with the eye test.
JoePgh said:
I assume you are referring to Blana Quinonez, and I agree with you about that.

@GamecockFam , I "liked" your post because of the relative objectivity of your analysis and the courteous tone in which it was delivered, but NOT because I agree with your forecast of the outcome. But you knew that, right?

Where would you put Blanca in the list of "Sarah, Azzi, Joyce, Raven, Taniya, Tessa, Madina, KK, Ashlyn, Serah"? I think I would put her right after Joyce Edwards, and (on your side) I would put Tessa Johnson as the second-best SC player, ahead of Raven and Latson. If the SC coaching staff has failed to scout Blanca because she is not in the starting lineup, they are in for a surprise (but I doubt that is the case).

Every time I watch an SC game, I think that Tessa Johnson looks and plays like a UConn player. She is unselfish, she seems to see the court really well, and she is just so smart (in a basketball sense)! I think that if Geno could "draft" one player from the SC roster, she is the one he would pick.

We all know who Dawn would draft from the UConn roster, though, and that's why there will be no agreement to trade draft choices.
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Funny thing is that I was thinking about Blanca and put her right behind Edwards as well.

I think that after Edwards, the remaining four South Carolina starters could be interchangeable in the rankings on any given day, so I tried to rank them on my expected impact for this matchup. Raven brings a lot of intangibles as a leader that makes me put her #2 on the South Carolina starters rankings. I think Latson's individual matchup against Shade will probably be one of the stronger advantages for South Carolina, so I expect for Shade to be substituted with Blanca pretty early in the game.

I have a feeling that South Carolina will try to force UConn into playing a bigger lineup of KK, Azzi, Blanca, Sarah, and Jana so that it makes it harder to deploy the full court press.
 
cferraro04 said:
"I don't think UConn has been tested by a defense of South Carolina's caliber, so it's hard to figure out how they would fare. North Carolina is probably the best defensive comp of a similar style, but I still think we're a few levels above their defense when comparing our size, length, and athleticism."

Let's see, now:

1. Sarah Strong is the best player in the country.
2. UConn's defense is rated number one.
3. South Carolina's defense is ranked 6th.

Clearly, this is going to be a good defensive match-up, but to the question of South Carolina's defense being a few levels above UConn's defense based on size, length, and athleticism, this is not borne out by the facts:

1. South Carolina averages 9.6 steals per game
2. UConn averages 15.7 steals per game.
3. South Carolina turns the ball over 12.8 times per game.
4. UConn turns the ball over 12.7 times per game,
5. South Carolina forces its opponents to turn the ball over 17.9 times per game.
6. UConn forces its opponents to turn the ball over 24.3 times per game.
7. South Carolina averages 29 points off turnovers.
8. UConn averages 32.9 points off turnovers.
9. South Carolina holds its opponents to 57.5 points per game while scoring 87.1 points per game.
10. UConn holds its opponents to 50.1 points per game while scoring 87.9 points per game.
11. South Carolina averages 5.9 blocks per game.
12 UConn averages 5.0 blocks per game.

I think the basketball gurus got this one right. We have the number one defense going up against the number six defense. This will be an epic defensive battle. Whoever brings their "A" game will prevail. I was extremely fair in my analysis. In the guard play, while offensively, South Carolina's guards have played offensively better all season, UConn, conversely, has defensively played better all season. I said in the analysis, normally I would give the ADVANTAGE to the higher offensive output, but I believe that when you factor in the individual defense of KK and Shade, and then consider there is little to no drop off when you bring in Kayleigh Heckel and Blanca Quinones, I think an EVEN ADVANTAGE is reasonable. Finally, when you take into consideration that UConn's scoring margin is 37.8 points and South Carolina's scoring margin is 29.6, I think a 7-point UConn victory is also reasonable.

Of course, this is the final four, and any one player or any team can have an inspirational performance, and you can throw all the numbers out of the window. I am expecting a nail-biter of a game on Friday, followed up by another exciting nail-biter in the Championship game.
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I'm sorry if I caused any confusion. I was saying that South Carolina's defense is a few steps higher than North Carolina's defense, so while that it is our best comparison of the teams you played, it isn't perfect because South Carolina has so much more size, length and athleticism than North Carolina.
 
You may be right but check the "stats" test and get back at me... I'd definitely admit if I was wrong


"I would argue that Texas is of a similar caliber on defense. I don't see that much difference with the eye test."
 
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I was at the Golden 1 arena and saw South Carolina play TCU in the Elite Eight on Monday. To me, SC looks like a better team than they were last year.

…unless UConn plays their “A” game I feel like it will be a win for SC. Makeer really impressed me.

Go Huskies!!!
 
GamecockFam said:
I'm sorry if I caused any confusion. I was saying that South Carolina's defense is a few steps higher than North Carolina's defense, so while that it is our best comparison of the teams you played, it isn't perfect because South Carolina has so much more size, length and athleticism than North Carolina.
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No confusion at all I love a nice calm debate...but I digress, both teams did play NC....SC gave up 82 pts and scored 91, UConn gave up 42 pts and scored 63.
 
UConnFanMSM said:
I was at the Golden 1 arena and saw South Carolina play TCU in the Elite Eight on Monday. To me, SC looks like a better team than they were last year.

…unless UConn plays their “A” game I feel like it will be a win for SC. Makeer really impressed me.

Go Huskies!!!
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Makeer 's playing very well
 
Dogstar said:
No confusion at all I love a nice calm debate...but I digress, both teams did play NC....SC gave up 82 pts and scored 91, UConn gave up 42 pts and scored 63.
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That was an exhibition game prior to the start of the season...
 
Dogstar said:
"I don't think UConn has been tested by a defense of South Carolina's caliber"

Well with UConn having the best defensive in the nation (plus the highest scoring offense) it's hard to believe that SC has played a team of UConns caliber. But we'll see.
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Texas is a great defensive team. SC played them 3 times.
 
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Doctor G said:
They play a different style of defense from UConn and they are great at it. Vic is a defensive genius.
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True but Geno’s no slouch himself.
 
Thank you sensei!
As usual I look forward to your reports for my pre game knowledge!
 
Dogstar said:
Didn't say they weren't...but better thn UConn?
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I think we're talking different languages here. You see it as apples and oranges whereas I see it as comparing Fiji apples to Granny Smith. Yes there is a statistical difference between the top four teams but it's not so great that we're comparing two different types of fruit.
Dogstar said:
True and ur defense has gotten better right? The Huskies win was in the sweet 16.
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Most definitely but we weren't testing our defense in the exhibition, so I don't look at the score as a reflection of our defense at that time. Coach Staley likes to use it to test lineups and see who plays well together.

As far as growth, it took us much longer to get into our groove this year. Coach Staley said that we were not able to implement many of our defensive concepts in the off-season because so many players were away (we had some players in 3x3 and FIBA), so we were running behind the usual schedule and would have to implement those concepts between games in the non-conference schedule. Our defense is night and day better than it was in November and I think we took another step up after losing to Oklahoma. While the stats rank us as the #6 defense from our collective body of work, I think only Texas and UConn may be better at this juncture.
 
Bone Dog said:
Exactly. It was easier to see after the game last season, but SC was not a well-balanced team. Dauda and Tac were only role players. The core of the frontcourt was not overpowering: Joyce Saniya and Chloe. None over 6’3”. The loss of Chloe to injury this season as well as the non-return of Ashlyn Watkins looked to be a blow for this season. But it turned out that Dawn was able to integrate Madina and Agot much more effectively than might have been expected. They are now stronger and quicker and longer than last season, and have more scoring balance. It also doesn’t hurt that Joyce has upped her already excellent game considerably from last season and Raven is having her best season yet.

The good news is that both Sarah and Azzi are having their best seasons, considerably better than last season. And then there’s Blanca. And the 1 & 2 spots are more or less equivalent to last season with Kayleigh playing Kaitlyn’s role. We also seem not to have upgraded our 5 position from last season. So, our chances ride on the improvement of our new Big Three being more significant than the loss of Paige.
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"But it turned out that Dawn was able to integrate Madina and Agot much more effectively than might have been expected. They are now stronger and quicker and longer than last season, and have more scoring balance. It also doesn’t hurt that Joyce has upped her already excellent game considerably from last season and Raven is having her best season yet". I think Old Dude would disagree with you here.
 
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Throw the individual matchups out the window. It's all about whether UConn's pressure defense will overcome South Carolina's ability to get offensive rebounds and second chance points. Let's see which team imposes their collective will.
 
GamecockFam said:
I'm sorry if I caused any confusion. I was saying that South Carolina's defense is a few steps higher than North Carolina's defense, so while that it is our best comparison of the teams you played, it isn't perfect because South Carolina has so much more size, length and athleticism than North Carolina.
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I believe UConn’s defense is at another level. Interestingly, Hannah Hildago said she has never faced a better defender than KK Arnold.
 
With the exception of Okat, good assessment. Okat is not only tall but a fluid and athletic player, not the attributes that Jana competes well with. Based on SC's desire to constantly drive to the basket, UConn would be well served to have a shot blocker underneath. While Jana is invaluable agains a big, less mobile player like Betts of UCLA, she is limited offensively and not a shot blocker. Not a good competitive lineup if you want Jana to get more minutes.
 
I think we'll see Jana in quite quickly after Okat scores at will over Williams..The problem I have is that Jana may be able to contain Okat but on defense Uconn can't switch 1 thru 5 with Jana in there
Poster's keep saying what a good job Jana did against Betts last year..Betts did score 26 points in that game
On the other hand Sarah should dominate Edwards on both ends of the court like she did last year
 
Cuango said:
Latson goes off in the last game and suddenly she’s going to beat our a**? All year we’ve seen (and heard) how KK & Ash routinely shut down virtually everyone they play against and suddenly Latson is sure to score 28 again? Latson can’t tie Hidalgo’s shoes and they did pretty well against her. I have a very hard time thinking they won’t handle Latson and Johnson. I’m worried about fouls, injuries, their front court, our scoring dip over the last two games, and variables! (I’m fairly confident the shooting can be attributed to the Fort Worth syndrome; new rims sight lines & new balls!) Naive perhaps, but there it is.

Yes, SC has looked good but look at the teams in their bracket! USC, Oklahoma, and TCU! All tailor made for a team with elite defense and strong offense. I think SC had the easiest route to the FF of anyone. Does anyone doubt that we too would have smoked those three teams?
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“Look at the teams in SC’s bracket.” So you think UTSA, Syracuse, North Carolina, or Notre Dame would have put up a better fight? Those teams are definitely made for a drubbing from South Carolina
 
HopJim said:
With the exception of Okat, good assessment. Okat is not only tall but a fluid and athletic player, not the attributes that Jana competes well with. Based on SC's desire to constantly drive to the basket, UConn would be well served to have a shot blocker underneath. While Jana is invaluable agains a big, less mobile player like Betts of UCLA, she is limited offensively and not a shot blocker. Not a good competitive lineup if you want Jana to get more minutes.
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I love Okot, But if UConn is making shots, her rebounding is negated. And if she’s having one of those games where she brings the ball down, and UConn has active hands, she gets a lot of jump balls called and travels. She can be frustrating when she’s not just going straight back up with the basketball. But she gives maximum effort on rebounding. And if she brings her three point shot which we never knew she had, she can be very dangerous.
 
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Dogstar said:
"I don't think UConn has been tested by a defense of South Carolina's caliber"

Well with UConn having the best defensive in the nation (plus the highest scoring offense) it's hard to believe that SC has played a team of UConns caliber. But we'll see.
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So would UConn have the best defense in the nation statistically if they were in the southeastern conference?
 
I wouldn't bet against the Huskies, but I think this game is much closer to a coin flip than a lot of huskies fans might like. I think the Huskies win a close one. Shade and KK are the keys - if they can't make open shots, particularly Shade who looks all out of sorts, then we could be in for a long night. If I'm Dawn I leave Shade open and double Strong or Azzi, until Shade can prove she can make a shot.
 
Tngamecock said:
So would UConn have the best defense in the nation statistically if they were in the southeastern conference?
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This year, and aggregating all years, by SRS, UConn (in the lowly Big East and AAC) is the premier team.
  • The same team that has 12 championships to 12 for the SEC combined.
It will be settled on the court, with two teams, relatively injury-free, in contrast to UConn’s biblical plague years when Dawn won her championships.

IMG_1664.jpeg
 
Dogstar said:
"I don't think UConn has been tested by a defense of South Carolina's caliber"

Well with UConn having the best defensive in the nation (plus the highest scoring offense) it's hard to believe that SC has played a team of UConns caliber. But we'll see.
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I'd argue that SC has played a defense of UConn's caliber in TX, whom they have a 1-2 record against this year.
 
Dogstar said:
So you think tht Dawn is equal with Geno? ..on what planet?
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Dawn has already won 3 titles, is a recruiting god, and has sent many incredible players to the W. Not sure how much sage wisdom Geno can claim as an advantage over Dawn in a one off game.

Its going to come down to player performances and who's scheme prevails.
 
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