Game Analysis - NCAA - Game 5 - UConn v. South Carolina

[JoePgh]

Tht may be true, but on the other side we also have an X-factor who plays starter minutes and who's a matchup nightmare both offensively and defensively. 🤔

I assume you are referring to Blana Quinonez, and I agree with you about that.

@GamecockFam , I "liked" your post because of the relative objectivity of your analysis and the courteous tone in which it was delivered, but NOT because I agree with your forecast of the outcome. But you knew that, right?

Where would you put Blanca in the list of "Sarah, Azzi, Joyce, Raven, Taniya, Tessa, Madina, KK, Ashlyn, Serah"? I think I would put her right after Joyce Edwards, and (on your side) I would put Tessa Johnson as the second-best SC player, ahead of Raven and Latson. If the SC coaching staff has failed to scout Blanca because she is not in the starting lineup, they are in for a surprise (but I doubt that is the case).

Every time I watch an SC game, I think that Tessa Johnson looks and plays like a UConn player. She is unselfish, she seems to see the court really well, and she is just so smart (in a basketball sense)! I think that if Geno could "draft" one player from the SC roster, she is the one he would pick.

We all know who Dawn would draft from the UConn roster, though, and that's why there will be no agreement to trade draft choices.

 

[cferraro04]

"I don't think UConn has been tested by a defense of South Carolina's caliber, so it's hard to figure out how they would fare. North Carolina is probably the best defensive comp of a similar style, but I still think we're a few levels above their defense when comparing our size, length, and athleticism."

Let's see, now:

1. Sarah Strong is the best player in the country.
2. UConn's defense is rated number one.
3. South Carolina's defense is ranked 6th.

Clearly, this is going to be a good defensive match-up, but to the question of South Carolina's defense being a few levels above UConn's defense based on size, length, and athleticism, this is not borne out by the facts:

1. South Carolina averages 9.6 steals per game
2. UConn averages 15.7 steals per game.
3. South Carolina turns the ball over 12.8 times per game.
4. UConn turns the ball over 12.7 times per game,
5. South Carolina forces its opponents to turn the ball over 17.9 times per game.
6. UConn forces its opponents to turn the ball over 24.3 times per game.
7. South Carolina averages 29 points off turnovers.
8. UConn averages 32.9 points off turnovers.
9. South Carolina holds its opponents to 57.5 points per game while scoring 87.1 points per game.
10. UConn holds its opponents to 50.1 points per game while scoring 87.9 points per game.
11. South Carolina averages 5.9 blocks per game.
12 UConn averages 5.0 blocks per game.

I think the basketball gurus got this one right. We have the number one defense going up against the number six defense. This will be an epic defensive battle. Whoever brings their "A" game will prevail. I was extremely fair in my analysis. In the guard play, while offensively, South Carolina's guards have played offensively better all season, UConn, conversely, has defensively played better all season. I said in the analysis, normally I would give the ADVANTAGE to the higher offensive output, but I believe that when you factor in the individual defense of KK and Shade, and then consider there is little to no drop off when you bring in Kayleigh Heckel and Blanca Quinones, I think an EVEN ADVANTAGE is reasonable. Finally, when you take into consideration that UConn's scoring margin is 37.8 points and South Carolina's scoring margin is 29.6, I think a 7-point UConn victory is also reasonable.

Of course, this is the final four, and any one player or any team can have an inspirational performance, and you can throw all the numbers out of the window. I am expecting a nail-biter of a game on Friday, followed up by another exciting nail-biter in the Championship game.

 

[GamecockFam]

"I don't think UConn has been tested by a defense of South Carolina's caliber"

Well with UConn having the best defensive in the nation (plus the highest scoring offense) it's hard to believe that SC has played a team of UConns caliber. But we'll see.

I would argue that Texas is of a similar caliber on defense. I don't see that much difference with the eye test.

I assume you are referring to Blana Quinonez, and I agree with you about that.

@GamecockFam , I "liked" your post because of the relative objectivity of your analysis and the courteous tone in which it was delivered, but NOT because I agree with your forecast of the outcome. But you knew that, right?

Where would you put Blanca in the list of "Sarah, Azzi, Joyce, Raven, Taniya, Tessa, Madina, KK, Ashlyn, Serah"? I think I would put her right after Joyce Edwards, and (on your side) I would put Tessa Johnson as the second-best SC player, ahead of Raven and Latson. If the SC coaching staff has failed to scout Blanca because she is not in the starting lineup, they are in for a surprise (but I doubt that is the case).

Every time I watch an SC game, I think that Tessa Johnson looks and plays like a UConn player. She is unselfish, she seems to see the court really well, and she is just so smart (in a basketball sense)! I think that if Geno could "draft" one player from the SC roster, she is the one he would pick.

We all know who Dawn would draft from the UConn roster, though, and that's why there will be no agreement to trade draft choices.

Funny thing is that I was thinking about Blanca and put her right behind Edwards as well.

I think that after Edwards, the remaining four South Carolina starters could be interchangeable in the rankings on any given day, so I tried to rank them on my expected impact for this matchup. Raven brings a lot of intangibles as a leader that makes me put her #2 on the South Carolina starters rankings. I think Latson's individual matchup against Shade will probably be one of the stronger advantages for South Carolina, so I expect for Shade to be substituted with Blanca pretty early in the game.

I have a feeling that South Carolina will try to force UConn into playing a bigger lineup of KK, Azzi, Blanca, Sarah, and Jana so that it makes it harder to deploy the full court press.

 

[GamecockFam]

"I don't think UConn has been tested by a defense of South Carolina's caliber, so it's hard to figure out how they would fare. North Carolina is probably the best defensive comp of a similar style, but I still think we're a few levels above their defense when comparing our size, length, and athleticism."

Let's see, now:

1. Sarah Strong is the best player in the country.
2. UConn's defense is rated number one.
3. South Carolina's defense is ranked 6th.

Clearly, this is going to be a good defensive match-up, but to the question of South Carolina's defense being a few levels above UConn's defense based on size, length, and athleticism, this is not borne out by the facts:

1. South Carolina averages 9.6 steals per game
2. UConn averages 15.7 steals per game.
3. South Carolina turns the ball over 12.8 times per game.
4. UConn turns the ball over 12.7 times per game,
5. South Carolina forces its opponents to turn the ball over 17.9 times per game.
6. UConn forces its opponents to turn the ball over 24.3 times per game.
7. South Carolina averages 29 points off turnovers.
8. UConn averages 32.9 points off turnovers.
9. South Carolina holds its opponents to 57.5 points per game while scoring 87.1 points per game.
10. UConn holds its opponents to 50.1 points per game while scoring 87.9 points per game.
11. South Carolina averages 5.9 blocks per game.
12 UConn averages 5.0 blocks per game.

I think the basketball gurus got this one right. We have the number one defense going up against the number six defense. This will be an epic defensive battle. Whoever brings their "A" game will prevail. I was extremely fair in my analysis. In the guard play, while offensively, South Carolina's guards have played offensively better all season, UConn, conversely, has defensively played better all season. I said in the analysis, normally I would give the ADVANTAGE to the higher offensive output, but I believe that when you factor in the individual defense of KK and Shade, and then consider there is little to no drop off when you bring in Kayleigh Heckel and Blanca Quinones, I think an EVEN ADVANTAGE is reasonable. Finally, when you take into consideration that UConn's scoring margin is 37.8 points and South Carolina's scoring margin is 29.6, I think a 7-point UConn victory is also reasonable.

Of course, this is the final four, and any one player or any team can have an inspirational performance, and you can throw all the numbers out of the window. I am expecting a nail-biter of a game on Friday, followed up by another exciting nail-biter in the Championship game.

I'm sorry if I caused any confusion. I was saying that South Carolina's defense is a few steps higher than North Carolina's defense, so while that it is our best comparison of the teams you played, it isn't perfect because South Carolina has so much more size, length and athleticism than North Carolina.

 

[Dogstar]

You may be right but check the "stats" test and get back at me... I'd definitely admit if I was wrong


"I would argue that Texas is of a similar caliber on defense. I don't see that much difference with the eye test."

 

[UConnFanMSM]

I was at the Golden 1 arena and saw South Carolina play TCU in the Elite Eight on Monday. To me, SC looks like a better team than they were last year.

…unless UConn plays their “A” game I feel like it will be a win for SC. Makeer really impressed me.

Go Huskies!!!