Game Analysis - Game 7 - UConn vs Xavier

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

This game will be another blowout with our starters getting somewhere around 22-25 minutes. Our bench players will see a lot of time and will have a chance to build up their stat resumes. Xavier has the privilege of occupying the basement of the Big East Conference. They are undersized and have an 11-person roster with 8 players seeing relevant minutes. They have an RPI of 260, their SOS = 310, and they are ranked 201. Their opponent's RPIs are as follows: University of New Haven 334; Purdue Ft Wayne - 84; Dayton - 248; Kent State - 126; Ohio - 224; Akron - 311. They average 63.17 points per game while holding their opponents to 59.33 points per game. They average 36.7 rebounds, 6.5 steals, 4.3 blocks, and 5.1 threes per game. UConn will flirt with scoring 90 points yet again and may even cross the 100 mark in this one (depends on if Geno takes his foot off the gas and/or decides to work on the half-court sets). Xavier is turnover-prone and will have a hard time with UConn's defense. Expect a lot of turnovers leading to easy UConn points.

PLAYER MATCH-UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Petra Oborlova, 6'2" - Senior Forward - Petra should allow Serah to have a breakout game, as Petra will have a difficult time containing Serah. Petra averages 4.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game. Serah is averaging 7.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.0 blocks per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Savannah White, 6'2" - Senior Forward - While Savannah is Xavier's most experienced and effective big she will be no match for Sarah Strong. Sarah is playing her best basketball and is a candidate for POY. Savannah averages 7.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game. Sarah Strong is averaging 18.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 3.0 steals, 2.7 blocks per game. Sarah is also averaging one three-pointer per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Mariyah Noel, 5'11" - Junior Guard - Mariyah is putting together a pretty good season this year, and this match-up may be the most interesting one of the game. Mariyah is averaging 18 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. Azzi has been playing well enough to put her in the running as the number one draft pick of next year's WNBA draft. Azzi is averaging 21.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.2 steals, .7 blocks, and is averaging 3.8 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Meri Kanerva, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - Meri averages 8.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.3 steals, and averages .8 three-pointers per game. KK is averaging 7.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.3 steals, and .5 three-pointers per game. KK has faced far superior opponents than Meri has, and while on paper their stats look similar, I expect that in this match-up, KK will prevail. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Lucia Marinez-Lopez, 6'1" Sophomore G/F - Lucia has a substantial size advantage over Ashlynn, which will probably be quickly remedied when Geno substitutes Blanca into the game. MacKenzie Givens will be brought in from the bench, and that match-up between Blanca and MacKenzie could be an interesting one. Lucia averages 3.7 points, 2.5 rebounds per game. MacKenzie averages 11.5 points, 4.0 rebounds per game. Ashlynn averages 6.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. When Blanca comes in, she averages 11.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1 three-pointer per game. Both Ashlynn and Blanca have faced much superior opponents, and they will both flourish in this game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn at least has a bench; Xavier only has three players capable of contributing coming off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

UConn's coaching staff will get the job done. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

Better coaching, deeper bench, more talented, experienced starters...everything is going UConn's way. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 101
XAVIER - 38
MOV - 63

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei. Well done!

One question: you suggest Xavier is undersized. But by your numbers they’re almost as big as UConn, at least the starting lineup, except for at the center position. They may even have a height advantage at the wing when Ash is on the floor. Are the other rotation players smaller?

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks again, Sensei. Well done!

One question: you suggest Xavier is undersized. But by your numbers they’re almost as big as UConn, at least the starting lineup, except for at the center position. They may even have a height advantage at the wing when Ash is on the floor. Are the other rotation players smaller?

Good evening, Bone Dog, and Happy Thanksgiving to you! I was referring to the entire team line-up. Their starting five is 6'2", 6'2", 6'1", 5'11", 5'9", matches up pretty well with the Huskies: 6'4", 6'2", 5'11", 5'10", 5'9". The 3-inch height advantage of 6'1" Lucia Martinez-Lopez over Ashlynn is the reason I discuss in the player match-up section above. Geno possibly having to adjust by bringing in 6'2" Blanca. If he does that, then Coach Bill Chambers can either stick with Lucia, who only averages 14.7 minutes per game against inferior competition, or he will likely counter with MacKenzie Givens, who is 6'0". Either way, Xavier's height advantage goes away when Ashlynn goes to the bench. Now the bench is another story:

Xavier,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,UConn
Mackenzie Givens, 6'0" - 24.7 minutes..............................Blanca Quinones, 6'2" - 15.5 minutes
Vivien Najasmic, 6'0" - 17.7 minutes..................................Allie Zeibell, 6'0" - 14.8 minutes
Auda Young, 5'9" - 19.6 minutes........................................Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - 19.0 minutes
Phoebe Holmes, 5'7" - 2.0 minutes...................................Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - 9.7 minutes
Denise Nevas, 6'0" - 2.3 minutes.......................................Caroline Ducharme, 6'2" - 8.8 minutes
Penda Dieng, 6'3' - 1.0 minutes.........................................Kelis Fisher, 5'9" - 6.8 minutes
............................................................................................Ayanna Patterson, 6'2" - 4.8 minutes
............................................................................................Gandy Malou-Mamel, 6'5" - 2.0 minutes
............................................................................................(And, 6'3" and 6'2" on the injured reserve list)

 

[Urshurak]

Right now I think Creighton is the basement of the Big East. Weird to say that…..but they’re 1-4.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

As always thanks for taking the time to prepare this for the rest of us knuckleheads!

 

[HopJim]

Good evening, Bone Dog, and Happy Thanksgiving to you! I was referring to the entire team line-up. Their starting five is 6'2", 6'2", 6'1", 5'11", 5'9", matches up pretty well with the Huskies: 6'4", 6'2", 5'11", 5'10", 5'9". The 3-inch height advantage of 6'1" Lucia Martinez-Lopez over Ashlynn is the reason I discuss in the player match-up section above. Geno possibly having to adjust by bringing in 6'2" Blanca. If he does that, then Coach Bill Chambers can either stick with Lucia, who only averages 14.7 minutes per game against inferior competition, or he will likely counter with MacKenzie Givens, who is 6'0". Either way, Xavier's height advantage goes away when Ashlynn goes to the bench. Now the bench is another story:

Xavier,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,UConn
Mackenzie Givens, 6'0" - 24.7 minutes..............................Blanca Quinones, 6'2" - 15.5 minutes
Vivien Najasmic, 6'0" - 17.7 minutes..................................Allie Zeibell, 6'0" - 14.8 minutes
Auda Young, 5'9" - 19.6 minutes........................................Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - 19.0 minutes
Phoebe Holmes, 5'7" - 2.0 minutes...................................Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - 9.7 minutes
Denise Nevas, 6'0" - 2.3 minutes.......................................Caroline Ducharme, 6'2" - 8.8 minutes
Penda Dieng, 6'3' - 1.0 minutes.........................................Kelis Fisher, 5'9" - 6.8 minutes
............................................................................................Ayanna Patterson, 6'2" - 4.8 minutes
............................................................................................Gandy Malou-Mamel, 6'5" - 2.0 minutes
............................................................................................(And, 6'3" and 6'2" on the injured reserve list)

Ash is a fearless defender and rebounder. She is also likely to be much quicker, faster, and better shooter than anyone guarding her in this game. Doubt the height difference will be a negative factor.

 

[HopJim]

UConn wins 89-54

 

[MSGRET]

UConn wins 89-54

HopJim, I think you might be confused, this needs to posted on the Prognosticator's Predictions thread.

 

[cferraro04]

I was reading some posts following the Texas sweep of both UCLA and South Carolina in an early-season tournament. Of course, since Texas beat the number 2 and the number 3 ranked teams, the posters are wondering if Texas should be ranked number one. That was a head scratcher for me. As long as UConn stays undefeated, there is no way they should relinquish the number one spot. What I got out of the conversation was two different things: 1. South Carolina and UCLA are not as good as they were last year. 2. Texas is for real. The remaining question: Even without Paige, is UConn better than it was last year? My answer is, not yet! I believe that as the season goes on, and I believe we may be playing this season without the services of Ice Brady and/or Morgan Cheli, UConn will be better than last year's version of the Huskies.

However, looking back at last year, the big three were Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd, and Sarah Strong. This year's version of the Huskies has Azzi Fudd, Sarah Strong, and Blanca Quinones. The loss of Paige is monumental but not insurmountable. Is Azzi Fudd better than last year? Yes, check that box. Is Azzi Fudd as good as Paige was last year? Not yet! Is Sarah Strong better than last year's version of herself? Absolutely! Check that box for sure. Is Blanca Quinones as good as Azzi was last year? Not yet...but the sky is the limit with Blanca, and by the end of the year, I believe we will be checking that box too. But our big three have help this year: Serah Williams is better than Jana was last year, and we still have Jana coming off the bench; this year's version of KK is better than last year's version. Our remaining bench players, Ashlynn, Ayanna, Gandy, Kelis, Kayleigh, and Allie, offer us more depth than last year. Depth is important to keep our starters freshwhich helps them to perform optimally in the postseason.

So, the short answer is, yes, UConn is better this year than last year and will continue to get better.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Live Stats &1:

• 11/30/2025: UConn at Xavier

&1 Live Stats for yet-to-be-played games (through 12/31/2025) are available via this schedule.

• The link is removed for played games.
• The schedule links are useful as to when pre-published links don’t work (as the case was for MI and Utah) as the game is in-progress.

 

[Bone Dog]

I’m right there with you, Sensei. I’d add this distinction that this year’s team in November looks to be at least as good as last year’s November team. Depth is simply better.

Sarah looks to be a lot more assertive, March level assertive. And Azzi also seems to be playing at her March level with even better defensive intensity. This doesn’t replace Paige, of course, since she played March basketball in November every season. But it shifts the equation quite a bit. And the wild card is Blanca whose ceiling is still untested but could eventually be as high as Sarah’s. Maybe not this season, but eventually.

And depth is much better, not just to replace Kaitlyn — though Geno may already have achieved this by adding Kayleigh — but also to expand his overall scoring options with Allie and Serah. Ash’s scoring is down, but I doubt that will last. And Serah’s scoring doesn’t seem to have come on line yet, but that won’t last. We don’t need either of them to average 20pts. 8-10 per game is more than enough to support the mains. And Serah may well surprise everyone soon enough. And if KK and Kayleigh average 5-7pts each, this is a diverse arsenal.

And the defensive pressure we’ve seen so far is at least the equal of last November.

So, yes, I think this year’s team is as good as last year’s and may turn out to be better in March. Of course, this is no sort of guarantee since anything can happy. But the current trajectory looks very promising indeed.

 

[FanSince17]

Ash is a fearless defender and rebounder. She is also likely to be much quicker, faster, and better shooter than anyone guarding her in this game. Doubt the height difference will be a negative factor.

Is this something new, UConn having a concern regarding height? It’s about intensity, teamwork, and execution. UConn has a “small lineup”, which is simply devastating. UConn is positively a matchup nightmare for the opposition.
Besides, height is very much overrated in women’s college basketball.

 

[HuskyNan]

Is this something new, UConn having a concern regarding height? It’s about intensity, teamwork, and execution. UConn has a “small lineup”, which is simply devastating. UConn is positively a matchup nightmare for the opposition.
Besides, height is very much overrated in women’s college basketball.

I have to smile. Not only is it not new, it’s waaaay beyond “concerning” for some, especially when it comes to post players. This despite the fact that some of the Huskies’ best rebounders have been 6-2 or so, e.g. Sarah, Gabby, Pheesa, Jamelle, Aaliyah, etc