Game Analysis - Game 7 - UConn vs Texas

[From France]

There is nearly no chance for Caroline to get the start

Nika / Paige / a freshman / Aubrey / Aaliyah

 

[Conndog]

UConn’s bigs top assignment is defense and rebounds- only Aaliyah will have to score. Give Amari some time, she is tall and her scoring is immaterial. Aubrey has no half-court game but can defend & rebound and flies on the break. Ice has potential and good size, but again just play D and get rebounds. I don’t expect Caroline to get much time or even play but would be thrilled for her to be in there

If UConn is going to win, it’s the guards who have to score. I sound like a broken record, but don’t play Nika and KK together at same time. One or the other- neither is scoring great. I like KK’s speed and aggressive play style. Q has to score as well as Ashlynn. We know Paige is going to go crazy. UConn just needs the other guards to score 20 points total, get another 20 from Paige, and if bigs ( Aaliyah, Ice, Aubrey, and Amari) can score 25 total, and get rebounds, then UConn wins low scoring game 65-63.

 

[willtalk]

Having followed Oregon St more than most, I thought I had a very good perspective on Taylor Jones while she was there. Both her strengths and weaknesses. But that was some time ago. There is one thing that did not change and that is her length. She has freakishly long arms that give her a playing reach far beyond her 6'4" listen height. I always thought it was counter productive to list basketball players heights by measuring the tops of their heads. I have never seen a player consistently shoot or block shots with their heads.

It makes me think of a high school player a few years ago who was listed at 7'6" but had a neck that had to be a foot and a half long. Players should be measured by their reach. Not everyones body configuration is the same. Some have very long torso's with short arms and short legs. Alligator arms so to speak.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

UConn’s bigs top assignment is defense and rebounds- only Aaliyah will have to score. Give Amari some time, she is tall and her scoring is immaterial. Aubrey has no half-court game but can defend & rebound and flies on the break. Ice has potential and good size, but again just play D and get rebounds. I don’t expect Caroline to get much time or even play but would be thrilled for her to be in there

If UConn is going to win, it’s the guards who have to score. I sound like a broken record, but don’t play Nika and KK together at same time. One or the other- neither is scoring great. I like KK’s speed and aggressive play style. Q has to score as well as Ashlynn. We know Paige is going to go crazy. UConn just needs the other guards to score 20 points total, get another 20 from Paige, and if bigs ( Aaliyah, Ice, Aubrey, and Amari) can score 25 total, and get rebounds, then UConn wins low scoring game 65-63.

To get that 65-63 win, I think it will be a "sprint and drift" sort of game. Alternating the full-court press, to have steals feed the transition game (Aubrey in a sprint is a good thing), and half-court tough defense to get stops or just run out the clock. Making slashing drives will need to be in Ashlynn & KK's games to get the Texas bigs in foul trouble to get AE into the scoring line.

But, all of the above is totally "doable" for a 65-63 win. Ugly BB, but a win is a win!

Yes, I agree that this match-up may be important for NCAA Tourney seeding...

Go Huskies!

 

[TCC Kid]

Thanks again, for the analysis, @cferraro04.

I think I have to disagree with some of your observations this time, though it may be merely my own anxieties.

Aaliyah vs Jones -- I think this is advantage Texas. Playing next to Dorka last year, this was a manageable matchup, but even then and with Jones recovering from injury, she was a handful.

I don't know what Geno can do with Muhammad. She's long and tall and pretty quick. Caroline is not a match for her on D, even healthy. Neither is Aubrey. If that's the way Geno goes, I think we're looking at foul trouble. But can Ice play enough minutes to make an impact on her?

Will Moore play? If she does, then we are in deep trouble. Aaliyah is the only possible matchup there, but then Muhammad and Jones are unleashed against the rest of the frontline.

Mwenentanda? She doesn't usually start, but she is a scrappy long limbed 6'2". Who matches up against her? My initial reaction would be Qadence, but she has yet to become the defensive force she can be.

I think our only real strength in this game is in the back court. Paige, Nika, KK, and Ashlynn are good matchups for Rori, Shaylee and Shay. If we can out-quick this trio, we have a chance. Otherwise, I'm not at all confident. In part, that's because we have yet to see Geno play the pressing game. That's how we discombobulated Texas last season. And they pressed us, too, and it took Azzi to defeat it.

And, by the way, Texas has played a team like UConn before -- they played us last season and it was pretty much the same players minus Rori, who was injured. I don't think we'll look at all surprising to them. We ran them off the floor, powered by a career game from Azzi. But the current Huskies don't appear configured to do that again.

My main fear is that the starters will play too many minutes, especially Paige, and they'll be exhausted by the 4th quarter. And that's not even considering the injury risk this could entail.

Uconn WCBB ---Right now---GREATEST weakness is as you have pointed out. Edwards is terrific but she is 6;3 inches tall. She is the toughest young lady in the College post--She gets no help. She GOT no help. I keep pounding a very dead horse--but it is the truth! Uconn needs a STOKES--a Stewie would make this team the NC for 2023. This is a great team, a talented team, but not a contender team. Without 2 transfers of 6 ft 6, it shall be a RELATIVELY long season. My empathy is for the team, they work their tails off, injuries are bad--but not having a true POST makes efforts harder--they live with the truth--we only see it in games.

One thing I've learned over the years..........you better not underestimate Vic Schaefer coached teams.........he gets as much from his players as any coach in the WBB game......

And Vic with a 5 ft guard beat Uconn! Vic is a very good coach---but no Geno in hi prime.

 

[cferraro04]

ADDENDUM TO GAME 7 ANALYSIS:

The following two match-ups must be revisited now that we know that Caroline isn't going to play.

Old Analysis:

Caroline Ducharrme 6'2" Jr. vs Amina Muhammad 6'4" So. - I am not even sure if Caroline is going to play...if she doesn't that creates a terrible mismatch at this position unless Ice Brady can raise her quality of play. It isn't feasible to expect Amari to step in and be a starter nor is it palpable to expect Ashlynn Shade, Q, or KK to be able to step up to defend a 6'4" player like Amina. The only other option is to move Aubrey over to defend Amina which would pave the way for either Ashlynn or KK to start on Madison. So, with this uncertainty in mind if the match-up between Caroline and Amina were to happen Caroline has proven that she can defend a taller player and she has proven that she can be that other scorer that UConn needs...unfortunately, that hasn't been the case this season. Caroline's numbers are way down. Amina is a solid 10-point and 7-rebound player. ADVANTAGE - TEXAS If Aubrey gets the Assignment then: ADVANTAGE - EVEN

New Analysis

Ice Brady 6'3" & Amari De Berry RS Fr vs Amina Muhammad 6'4" So - Time for Ice to step up...Geno almost has no choice here... He almost has to put Ice into the line-up...of course, he could decide not to given what Ice has shown him thus far...but, it appears that it is time for Ice to grow into the hype she had coming into the program. She may not be able to give 30 minutes but she is going to have to give 15 to 20 solid minutes if we are going to be able to contain Texas' bigs. Ideally, I hope Ice is up for the task...if she isn't we may see a combination of Amari and Aubrey moving over to pick up the slack. Amari also has not been able to convince the coaches that she is ready for the big time...but, c'mon we have 6'3" and 6'6" on the bench...that is 10 fouls between them...I am sure they are practicing with the team and they ought to be able to contribute something either defensively, offensively or both. If neither of them is up to the task then Geno will have no choice but to move the undersized Aubrey Griffin over to defend Amina. This could be a difficult assignment for Aubrey but she has surprised us in the past so who knows? If Geno does decide to go with Aubrey then the match-up below must also be reconfigured. In any case because of the uncertainty at this position... ADVANTAGE - TEXAS

Old Analysis

Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Gr. vs Madison Booker 6'1" Fr. - Again this is a match-up that may not happen as it depends on what happens with Caroline Ducharme. Aubrey's and Madison's statistical comparison is very close with Aubrey having a slight advantage. However, with the kind of defense that Aubrey will bring to Madison, I suspect that Madison will not have a good day. ADVANTAGE - UCONN If the assignment becomes a team effort of Ashlynn, KK, and Q I still think it will continue to be ADVANTAGE - UCONN

New Analysis

Qadence Samuels 6'0", Ines Bettencourt 5'9", Ashlynn Shade 5'10" vs Madison Booker 6'1" - If Ice and Amari are able to match-up with Amina then Aubrey can stay on Madison Booker. However, in the case where Geno decides to shift Aubrey over to Amina...then job of defending Madison would have to be done by committee and that responsibility would have to go to Qadence Samuels, Ines Bettencourt and Ashlynn Shade. Again we must be mindful that we would have 15 fouls to give at this position...which means freshmen mistakes not withstanding if you run out of options then you have to let the youngsters try. Madison has averaged 9.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game...she plays about 21 minutes per game...Aaliyah Moore Shay Holle will pick up the slack when Amina goes to the bench...both Aliyah and Shay average about 7.5 points per game each. This position whether it is Amina or Aaliyah or Shay contributes too much to the game stats for our committee to handle... ADVANTAGE TEXAS

Unfortunately, this also alters my prognostication:

Texas - 74

UConn - 69

MOV - 5

 

[Jokerman619]

All the numbers in the world, is just numbers. You have to look at the heart of uconn women's basketball. Last year, they played against big odds. No players, and yet they made a run in March. These young ladies will figure this out, and I look forward to seeing them get a signature win. Just the beginning of many more. And I am looking for them to make a big run in March.

 

[Longtime fan]

COMMENTS:

I think we are all in agreement that having the past week off was a good thing for the UConn Huskies. The Cayman Islands was pretty rough going for the Huskies. UCLA was already in mid-season form while the Huskies were reeling from the loss of Azzi for the season and Caroline Ducharme being out of the line-up and uncertainty surrounding if and when she will return. Paige coming off a 500-plus day lay-off due to her own injuries was expected to put the team on her shoulders and pull off a couple of wins. Despite a 31-point effort in game one and a 19-point effort in game two...she almost pulled it off. However, UCLA proved to be too much for UConn (12 threes is hard to overcome) when you don't have the shooters to match it.

Next up is 7-0 Texas...but, let's not get ahead of ourselves here...they haven't really played anyone of consequence yet. Their opponent's RPI rankings are as follows: 63, 133, 181, 183, 190, 191 and 208. Texas' opponent's SOS is also unimpressive and their collective SOS rankings are as follows: 24, 32, 45, 77, 80, 152, and 191. Finally, the Massey ratings of their opponents are as follows: 77, 75, 147, 189, 231, 234 and 249.

Texas starts: Shaylee Gonzales 5'10" graduate guard; Rori Harmon, 5'6" junior guard; Madison Booker 6'1" freshman forward; Amina Muhammad 6'4" freshman forward and Taylor Jones 6'4"senior forward. Their starters average 56.3 points of the Longhorn's 88.9 points or 63.3 percent of the team's total game points.

The Longhorns bench accounts for 32. 6 points and 23.5 rebounds. Their bench has 6'0" Shay Holle who plays 24.3 minutes per game; 6'4" Kadikja Faye - 16.4 minutes per game; 6'2" Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda - 17.3 minutes; 6'1" Aaliyah Moore - 13.9 minutes; and 5'11" Gisella Maul - 13.6 minutes per game.

UConn's bench accounts for 20.5 points and 9.2 rebounds...this production would appear to be quite anemic compared to the bench production from Texas.

The obvious thing that jumps out to me is that Texas has quite a bit of size on their roster and there isn't even any mention of the 6'9" freshman (Abby Boutilcer) who hasn't played in any of their games yet.
They are not a particularly good 3-point shooting team, but they put a lot of points up on the board. Again this is probably because they haven't really played anybody who was that good yet. For all their size they only average 4.3 blocks per game. They average about 20 assists with only 11.3 turnovers per game. They force 25.5 turnovers per game and average 20 steals per game...indicating that they can put pressure on the ball and UConn will have to take care of the basketball.

Rory Harmon was named a pre-season All-American honorable mention...Rory is also the Big 12's pre-season Player of the Year. Last year she was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. She holds the school record for most assists per game at 7.4 and last year was ranked 4th in the country for assists per game. Rori was also named to the 2024 16-person list for the Wade Trophy for Player of the Year

Notables:

• HORNS ON D: Last season the Longhorns were 22-0 when they held an opponent to 59 points or less. In the 2023-24 season Texas ranks ninth in the NCAA in turnovers forced per game at 26.75.

• ASSIST-TO: The Longhorns rank first in the Big 12 and third in the NCAA this season in assists to turnover ratio. Texas is averaging 23.8 assists per game and 11.5 turnovers per game.

• ON THE BOARDS: The Longhorns are +18.3 in rebounding margin this season and have a 92-20 advantage in second-chance points.

• POUNDING THE PAINT: The Longhorns have had a significant post presence this season as they lead opponents 212-86 in paint points, including an 80-36 edge over UT Arlington last time out.

• NO. 1 RECRUITING CLASS: On Nov. 8 the Longhorns signed what ESPN.Com has ranked as the No. 1 recruiting class in the country. The Horns are the only school in the country with two top-10 signees.

• GONZALES CAREER SCORING: Shaylee Gonzales knows how to put the ball in the basket. Gonzales has scored 2,047 career points, which ranks fifth among all active women's DI college basketball players.

I believe that Texas has not faced a team like UConn and that UConn's ball pressure is going to force Texas into turning the ball over more than they are used to. But, it also appears that the Longhorns can bring significant ball pressure of their own...so, this could be a very good defensive game with the score being in the seventies.

MATCH-UPS:

Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" Sr. vs Taylor Jones 6'4" Sr. - Aaliyah is playing somewhat below her offensive capabilities. She is currently averaging 14.3 points a game...I believe Aaliyah is closer to a 20-point-per-game player. She is also averaging 6.7 rebounds per game and I also believe that this is below her capabilities...I believe that Aaliyah is actually a 9-rebound per-game player. The question in this game is will Aaliyah return to form or will Taylor Jones continue being the scoring machine she was earlier in this season? Statistically, this match-up is a tie...but, Aaliyah is a strong player who can body up her opponent...I am going with a slight... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Caroline Ducharrme 6'2" Jr. vs Amina Muhammad 6'4" So. - I am not even sure if Caroline is going to play...if she doesn't that creates a terrible mismatch at this position unless Ice Brady can raise her quality of play. It isn't feasible to expect Amari to step in and be a starter nor is it palpable to expect Ashlynn Shade, Q, or KK to be able to step up to defend a 6'4" player like Amina. The only other option is to move Aubrey over to defend Amina which would pave the way for either Ashlynn or KK to start on Madison. So, with this uncertainty in mind if the match-up between Caroline and Amina were to happen Caroline has proven that she can defend a taller player and she has proven that she can be that other scorer that UConn needs...unfortunately, that hasn't been the case this season. Caroline's numbers are way down. Amina is a solid 10-point and 7-rebound player. ADVANTAGE - TEXAS If Aubrey gets the Assignment then: ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Gr. vs Madison Booker 6'1" Fr. - Again this is a match-up that may not happen as it depends on what happens with Caroline Ducharme. Aubrey's and Madison's statistical comparison is very close with Aubrey having a slight advantage. However, with the kind of defense that Aubrey will bring to Madison, I suspect that Madison will not have a good day. ADVANTAGE - UCONN If the assignment becomes a team effort of Ashlynn, KK, and Q I still think it will continue to be ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers 6'0" RS Jr. vs Shaylee Gonzales 5'10" Gr. - Shaylee has scored over 2000 points in her career but she will be playing against a bonified candidate for player of the year in Paige Beuckers. I expect that Paige will be too much for Shaylee in most areas. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5'11" Sr. vs Rori Harmon 5'6" Jr. - This match-up could prove to be the most exciting match-up of the game. Both are defensive stoppers, both can distribute the basketball and both can score if they have to. Rory is closer to mid-season form than Nika ADVANTAGE - TEXAS

BENCH:

As I listed above the UConn bench is somewhat anemic and does not produce anywhere near what the Texas bench produces Texas has 32.6 points; and 23.5 rebounds; UConn has 20.5 points and 9.2 rebounds coming off the bench. Additionally, Texas brings 6'4", 6'4", 6'2", 6'1" 6'1", 6'0", and 5'11" while, UConn brings 6'6", 6'3", 5'11", 5'10", 5'9", 5'9". ADVANTAGE - TEXAS

INTANGIBLES:

This game is being played in Austin, TX. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty with the UConn roster... ADVANTAGE - TEXAS

COACHING:

The one consistency on this team is the coaching...Geno et al. are more experienced and are more accomplished... ADVANTAGE UCONN


SCORE:

UConn - 76
Texas - 67

MOV - 9

I don't think the coaching advantage automatically goes to UCONN. That Texas coach has been around and his success is legendary. No one has the NC's that UCONN does, but we haven't had one of those in a long , long time.