Game Analysis - Game 5 - UConn vs Michigan

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Michigan is ranked #6, leapfrogging 8 spots after giving a "behind the woodshed" beating to overrated Notre Dame. Michigan currently has an RPI of 23 and an SOS of 15, while UConn has an RPI of 2 and an SOS of 3. Michigan's starting five enjoys a height advantage in four of the five starting positions. Michigan is a balanced basketball team with five players averaging double figures for the season. Michigan has been putting up huge numbers: 108 (exhibition game); 100 (Canisius); 84 (Harvard); 93 (Notre Dame); and 120 (Binghamton). However, putting up large numbers against such numbers against massively inferior competition is not impressive. Their win over Notre Dame was a surprise, but I don't think people realize just yet how overrated Notre Dame is. They are one-dimensional with only one star player, Hildalgo.

I really don't think Michigan has or will face any team this season quite like UConn. UConn is a very deep team with players who can play multiple positions. I have said since the beginning of the season that it is going to be very difficult for teams to keep UConn from scoring 90 points. There will be teams that hold UConn in the 80s and 90s, but I think that UConn will flirt with 90 points per game all season long. That being said, Michigan is putting up some big numbers. UConn must get its offense going while making life difficult on the defensive end for Michigan to get into its rhythm.

MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" Senior Forward vs Ashley Sofiknich, 6'3" Junior Forward - Ashley is one of two starting players for Michigan who is 6'3" (twin towers). Ashley averages 10.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, .7 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game. Serah has been ramping up her game lately as she becomes more familiar with UConn's offensive sets. Serah is the only starting player who has a size advantage over her opponent. She is averaging 8.8 points, 4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, .8 steals, and .8 blocks per game. If Serah can continue to build on her latest performances, then UConn will have a solid big in the starting lineup. ADVANTAGE - EVEN


Sarah Strong, 6'2" Sophomore Forward vs Te'yala Delfosse, 6'3" Sophomore Guard/Forward - Te'yala Delfosse is the second pillar of Michigan's "twin towers" starting lineup. She averages 10.2 points, 1.0 three-pointers, 5. rebounds, l.3 assists, and .8 steals. Te'yala has not faced anyone as multi-faceted as UConn's Sarah Strong. Sarah is UConn's most prolific player. Sarah averages a team 20.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists,, 3.2 steals and 2.5 blocks per game. She also averages 1.5 three-pointers per game. She is an absolute stat stuffer, a double-double threat every game and on occasions flirts with a triple-double. She is currently playing like the player of the year and I expect that to continue. It is the old UConn adage, "We have Sarah and you don't". ADVANTAGE - UCONN


Azzi Fudd, 5'11" Graduate Guard vs Alivia Olsen, 6'1" Sophomore Guard - Olivia is Michigan's most prolific player. At 6'1", she is a big guard who can score, shoot the three, rebound, and defend. Olivia averages a team-high 17.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. Olivia shoots the three-ball at about 38 percent. While Azzi gives up 2 inches to Olivia, her defense is capable of slowing down Olivia. Azzi matches Olivia's points per game at 17.8. She also averages 2.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.5 steals, and knocks down 3 three-pointers per game. Azzi shoots the three-ball at 46 percent. On paper, these two players look very similar, but I believe that Azzi has a slight edge. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN


KK Arnold, 5'9 Junior Guard vs Mila Holloway, 5'10" Sophomore Guard - Mila is a scoring guard averaging 14.2 points per game. She also averages 5.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 3.5 steals per game. Mila makes .7 three-pointers per game, shooting the 3-ball at 40 percent. KK can be a lockdown defender, and she will need to play tough defense if she is going to prevail in this matchup. KK averages 7.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. So far this season, KK has not been shooting the three-ball well.
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - MICHIGAN


Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" Junior Guard vs Syla Swords, 6'0" Sophomore Guard - Syla Swords is a solid basketball player. At 6'0", she gives Michigan good size at the guard spot. Syla averages 12.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn gives up two inches in this matchup, and it makes me wonder if Geno might start Blanca Quinones, who at 6'2" would negate Michigan's advantage at this spot. Ashlynn is in a bit of a slump and is averaging 6.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. Ashlynn averages .75 three-pointers per game. If Blanca doesn't get the start, I would look for an early substitution.
ADVANTAGE - MICHIGAN

BENCH:

Michigan's bench averages 35 points, 14.9 rebounds per game. UConn's bench averages 37.8 points and 17.8 rebounds. UConn faces tougher competition than does Michigan. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

The game is a home game for UConn. We have Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd, and they don't. UConn has played tougher competition. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 83
MICHIGAN - 72
MOV - 11

 

[Centerstream]

I'm interested to see who Blanca subs in for, Ashlynn or Serah. I would like to see a front line of Serah, Sarah and Blanca if we get off to a good game on offense. I really think that Serah's B1G experience will help us against Michigan even though that didn't seem to be the case against Ohio State. I was expecting more minutes from her but I guess we didn't need them with the way Blanca played.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thank you so much, sensei!

I think I disagree with some of your advantage calls.

• Delfosse and Sofilkanich are mainly a platoon from what I’ve seen. KBA is not likely to play them together much, I imagine for team speed considerations. This means the primary matchup for both of them is Serah and Jana. I’d call any permutation of that matchup Advantage UConn. And since either of them will occasionally be stuck trying to contain Sarah, that’s an even bigger Advantage UConn.
• But then who would be Sarah’s main matchup? My guess is either Olson or Swords, and either one would be a huge Advantage UConn. Dudley will sub for either of them and the advantage situation still won’t change.
• I’m going to guess Ash will start, though Blanca will get at least 20 mins. Whether it’s against Olson or Swords, I think this is Advantage UConn. Ash will give up a couple inches to either of them. But that hasn’t deterred her before. And Blanca is simply an X factor that will be difficult to manage for either of them.
• As for the guards, KBA usually starts both Holloway and Quarles-Daniels. That means with all the switching that is likely, the question is how they’ll matchup against KK and Kayleigh and Azzi and Allie. Judging from the ND game, KBA didn’t feel comfortable subbing either of her guards out even with a huge lead. What this says to me is that there is no answer for Azzi, and KK and Kayleigh are more than enough to win their matchups.
• Finally, I think there’s no way Michigan’s bench is equivalent to UConn’s bench.

Last thing I’d say is that Geno has no problem switching 1-5. But I doubt Michigan is prepared to do the same. This means there will be some pic-and-roll opportunities available. This is merely the consequences every opponent will face with our lineup.

 

[Gael]

I think I disagree with some of your advantage calls.

Is picking nits allowed on this site?

Bone Dog, I'll respectfully disagree with just one of your disagreements.

Of course this is a biased fan site, but even so, I find it hard to give Shade the advantage over either Olson or Swords, both of whom have made the Wooden Award Watch List and the Jersey Mike's Naismith Trophy Women's College Player of the Year Watch List as sophomores and both of whom have much better stats in virtually every category than Shade so far this season. Of course, Ash could get hot while Olson or Swords go cold in this game, but I don't think the empirical evidence thus far supports the probability of that outcome for this game's comparative analysis.

Blanca over Olson and Swords? I can see that with or without UConn bias, even though she hasn't statistically "proven" much with a mere n=2 games, because lots of UConn fans have evaluated her elite potential from many months of scrutinizing her Italian league videos and her scrimmages in addition to her impressive first two regular season games.

 

[Next 12]

I have said it before that size is not a problem with this team. We have size also and DEFENSE!!! Uconn will have no problem scoring enough points to win the game and the defense to contain Michigan. Naysayers can nay all they want as Uconn is in a class all it's own. With the pace Uconn plays at and the depth of our bench , I see a hard fought win. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!

 

[Bone Dog]

I find it hard to give Shade the advantage over either Olson or Swords, both of whom have made the Wooden Award Watch List and the Jersey Mike's Naismith Trophy Women's College Player of the Year Watch List as sophomores and both of whom have much better stats in virtually every category than Shade so far this season. Of course, Ash could get hot while Olson or Swords go cold in this game, but I don't think the empirical evidence thus far supports the probability of that outcome for this game's comparative analysis.

Fair enough. I wasn't intending to compare Ash straight up to either Olson or Swords in particular. Rather since I was thinking of the position as a platoon between Ash and Blanca, I saw this as a net advantage to UConn. Of course, my way of putting this is pretty sloppy and maybe conceptually incoherent. This is in part because there's been so much noise on the BY lately about Ash's slow start and whether she should be a starter. My solution is merely to treat the two players who might occupy the matchup against Olson and/or Swords together.

Now what would it look like for Ash to simply be matched up against Olson, for example? Just as a thought experiment, this is worthwhile, even if it would never work out exactly this way in a game. I think Ash would defend well, but might not score much. She would scrap for rebounds and probably take one or two away from Olivia. Could she hold Olivia under her current scoring average of 18pts/g? I believe this is theoretically possible, though in reality it wouldn't be Ash alone who is responsible for it just because of the nature of UConn's switching defense, and the likelihood that Blanca would share this responsibility. But Ash will likely do her part and then some.

If it were just a matter of Blanca guarding Olson or Swords, I have no doubt she would prevail over either one. Maybe both at once (lol). That's how highly I estimate Blanca's athleticism and drive. The same goes for Sarah. And this maybe is the larger point -- Olson and Swords are going to have to contend with Sarah and Blanca for some part of this game. KBA has no one else who can reasonably be expected to defend either of them. How do we think they will fare in this role? My guess is they will do their best but fall short. Sarah is likely to score 20+ points and maybe get 8-10 rebounds. Blanca will end up with similar numbers. Olson and Swords average 18 and 12 pts respectively, and 4 and 5 rebounds. Will they combine for 30 points against UConn? If they do, it will be a very good sign for their team. To be fair, I should probably include Dudley's numbers here since I'm also treating UConn as a platoon. That's 5 pts and 3 rebounds. My suspicion is Sarah Blanca and Azzi will combine for ~60 pts.

KK Kayleigh and Ash average a combined 22 pts and 9 rebounds. I could compare that to Michigan's Holloway and Quarles-Daniels, who average a combined 19 pts and 9 rebounds. Advantage UConn, but it's closer than some of the other comparisons.

 

[kidfrom360]

I really think this could be a great coming out game for Serah Williams. She is familar with this team, as they played last year in the Big 10, where Wisconsin actually won by 7 points at Michigan, with a roster that was a fraction of the talent of Uconn (No offense to Wisconsin). Serah had 22 points and 7 rebounds. Granted Michigan loss about 20% of their scoring, but picked up a couple new additions that are contributing this season. So, really think Serah could dominate this game, but will be interested to see how the team plays them. Go Huskies!

 

[JoePgh]

I haven't watched a Michigan game yet -- I hope to watch the Michigan - ND game before Friday's game. But what is the quality of Michigan's ball handling? Do they have anyone (or more than one) who can dribble in tight spaces under pressure, or make outlet passes under pressure? If this is an area of potential weakness, it could be fatal and leave the Wolverines wandering in the snow. I expect that UConn will be able to produce 15 to 20 opponent turnovers against most teams, and perhaps against Michigan.

 

[Bone Dog]

Do they have anyone (or more than one) who can dribble in tight spaces under pressure, or make outlet passes under pressure? I

Yes. They have several. 4 of the 5 starters are excellent ball handlers, and at least one player coming off the bench too.

 

[Dogdude]

All I would add is that using the scoring-biased evaluation of Ash's and KK's matchups is maybe a little flawed. neither pretend to be great scorers (though when Ash gets hot, things change). The value of both is in their defense primarily, and Ash's hustle in crashing boards and KK's steals. The scoring comes from anywhere between 3-5 other players, so it's a less critical measurement of their impact. While I won't say that they have the advantage, more that they're even at their positions.

 

[Mallow]

Thank you so much, sensei!

I think I disagree with some of your advantage calls.

• Delfosse and Sofilkanich are mainly a platoon from what I’ve seen. KBA is not likely to play them together much, I imagine for team speed considerations. This means the primary matchup for both of them is Serah and Jana. I’d call any permutation of that matchup Advantage UConn. And since either of them will occasionally be stuck trying to contain Sarah, that’s an even bigger Advantage UConn.
• But then who would be Sarah’s main matchup? My guess is either Olson or Swords, and either one would be a huge Advantage UConn. Dudley will sub for either of them and the advantage situation still won’t change.
• I’m going to guess Ash will start, though Blanca will get at least 20 mins. Whether it’s against Olson or Swords, I think this is Advantage UConn. Ash will give up a couple inches to either of them. But that hasn’t deterred her before. And Blanca is simply an X factor that will be difficult to manage for either of them.
• As for the guards, KBA usually starts both Holloway and Quarles-Daniels. That means with all the switching that is likely, the question is how they’ll matchup against KK and Kayleigh and Azzi and Allie. Judging from the ND game, KBA didn’t feel comfortable subbing either of her guards out even with a huge lead. What this says to me is that there is no answer for Azzi, and KK and Kayleigh are more than enough to win their matchups.
• Finally, I think there’s no way Michigan’s bench is equivalent to UConn’s bench.

Last thing I’d say is that Geno has no problem switching 1-5. But I doubt Michigan is prepared to do the same. This means there will be some pic-and-roll opportunities available. This is merely the consequences every opponent will face with our lineup.

The last time Serah played Michigan she had over 20 pts and 7 or so rebounds in 35+ mins

 

[cferraro04]

Thank you so much, sensei!

I think I disagree with some of your advantage calls.

• Delfosse and Sofilkanich are mainly a platoon from what I’ve seen. KBA is not likely to play them together much, I imagine for team speed considerations. This means the primary matchup for both of them is Serah and Jana. I’d call any permutation of that matchup Advantage UConn. And since either of them will occasionally be stuck trying to contain Sarah, that’s an even bigger Advantage UConn.
• But then who would be Sarah’s main matchup? My guess is either Olson or Swords, and either one would be a huge Advantage UConn. Dudley will sub for either of them and the advantage situation still won’t change.
• I’m going to guess Ash will start, though Blanca will get at least 20 mins. Whether it’s against Olson or Swords, I think this is Advantage UConn. Ash will give up a couple inches to either of them. But that hasn’t deterred her before. And Blanca is simply an X factor that will be difficult to manage for either of them.
• As for the guards, KBA usually starts both Holloway and Quarles-Daniels. That means with all the switching that is likely, the question is how they’ll matchup against KK and Kayleigh and Azzi and Allie. Judging from the ND game, KBA didn’t feel comfortable subbing either of her guards out even with a huge lead. What this says to me is that there is no answer for Azzi, and KK and Kayleigh are more than enough to win their matchups.
• Finally, I think there’s no way Michigan’s bench is equivalent to UConn’s bench.

Last thing I’d say is that Geno has no problem switching 1-5. But I doubt Michigan is prepared to do the same. This means there will be some pic-and-roll opportunities available. This is merely the consequences every opponent will face with our lineup.

Bone Dog, thank you for your response. My reasoning for the match-ups was as follows: KBA has started Olson, Holloway, Swords, and Sofilkanich in every game this season. I see no reason she won't do the same against UCONN. The fifth starting position has been as follows: Quarles-Daniels - 2 starts; Crockett - 2 starts, and Kendall - 1 start. When I put myself in KBA's shoes, I am thinking what will be my best matchups against the UConn juggernaut? For obvious reasons, Williams will draw one of the 6'3" players. I don't see why Geno won't continue to start KK and Ashlynn at the guard positions. What may change is how long he leaves them in there before subbing in Blanca and Kayleigh. In either case, KK and Ashlynn will draw one of the starting guards each. Which ones they get is dependent on who KBA thinks is best suited to guard Azzi. Olsen, who is also a consistent starter, is the perfect match-up for Azzi as their stat lines are almost identical. That leaves KK and Ashlynn to be defended by Holloway and Swords. This allows KBA to decide who fills the last starting position, which would have to be chosen from the remaining pool of players. In my opinion, the best choice still on the table is Te'laya Delfosse, who at 6'3" has the best chance of defending against Sarah. KBA probably figures it won't matter who she puts against Sarah Strong...Sarah is going to be almost impossible to contain. So with a big on Sarah, at least she has a chance of slowing her down. KBA has a matchup problem with UConn players in that UConn is faster, more talented, and suffocating on defense. At the end of the day, my reasoning may be "all wet," which is why they pay Geno and KBA the big bucks, and I am whacking away at a keyboard. But, if it were up to me, that is how I would match up the Michigan players.

 

[Cuango]

Honestly, I’m a little concerned about this game. I don’t think there’s any doubt we are the favorite but this Michigan team is pretty special in it’s own right. They are big, skilled, they turn the opposing team over at a high rate, they are very good rebounders, and they are well coached. It is clear that we are going to have to play well, take care of the ball, and avoid foul trouble to win this game. Honestly, how many games will we play this season where that is the case?

I have to say as well that imho some here are putting a bit too much expectation on Blanca. I hope I’m wrong of course, but she’s really only played two games so far. Yes, she’s obviously a great talent and I’m ecstatic she is a Husky, but people here are expecting her to match Sarah’s output in this game! I think that could be pushing it a bit. Obviously, I hope she does match S.S. but I can’t say I expect it. I’m glad we are at home at least. I think if this game were six weeks from now I would be way less concerned. Here’s hoping Geno has them ready to play! (as usual) Go Huskies!!

 

[Ozimoto]

I hear you, but Michigan will also have to play well, take care of the ball, and avoid foul trouble to win this game. I don't think they can hedge and double team the ball against UConn like they did against Notre Dame. Guess we'll see Friday night.

 

[Bone Dog]

This allows KBA to decide who fills the last starting position, which would have to be chosen from the remaining pool of players. In my opinion, the best choice still on the table is Te'laya Delfosse, who at 6'3" has the best chance of defending against Sarah.

I hear you. I just think KBA hasn’t used a lineup like that in either of the games I’ve watched, with DelFosse and Solfikanich on the floor together for long. My guess is because it makes their lineup slow and that may matter more than height. Also, if such a unit hasn’t gotten much playing time so far, I doubt KBA would use them in their biggest game so far, since their chemistry would be undeveloped. Also, the win against ND depended on a crisp speedy defense. That’s the primary identify of the team so far. I don’t see KBA going away from that now.

 

[tomcat]

I too am concerned about this game. By rights, UConn should win, but no matter how one-dimensional ND turned out to be, Michigan did a beat-down on them. If UConn shows up out of sorts at all, it could be a tough slog to get a win. I'm certainly hoping that is not the case -- my wife and I are flying up from Florida to take in the tournament. so we're really hoping for two exceptional games. Blanca could be a big difference-maker in this one. We already know that very few (if any) teams have an answer for Sarah, but it may also be the case that Michigan has no answer for a very talented Blanca who is starting to figure out how to play college ball.

 

[YKCornelius]

Cferraro04, thanks as always for putting this analysis together. It generates great discussion, and also tends to flush out many Boneyarders' worries/concerns - especially for good opponents.

In a nutshell, I am more aligned with Bone Dog in the assignment of "advantages". Since we know UConn will be playing a variety of defenses, switching from man to zone as well as from big to small, I tend to analyze this game in the context of positions not individuals. When it comes to positions, I think UConn has the advantage across the board.

That said, even if I am going to attempt analyzing by individuals, I find myself thinking that none of the current Wolverines would start on this UConn team. Swords and Olson would be in the same boat as K9, Blanca, Jana, and Allie - coming in off the bench.

I am not worried about Friday's game in the least. I think a large MOV is likely. Where the Huskies are at this point in the season - and it is not even Thanksgiving yet - is impressive. To steal a phrase from the box office: Wicked Good!

 

[Stagnant]

Whether they are matched up here or not. I am looking forward to Strong versus Olson. A big test for both players.

 

[JoePgh]

I have now watched a replay of the Michigan - Notre Dame game. My first observation about that game is that it was not nearly as lopsided as the final score might suggest. The fact that Michigan won the fourth quarter 28-12 (and thereby changed a 23-point margin after three quarters to a 39-point difference in the final score) distorts the reality of the game.

For Notre Dame, the big problem was that Hannah Hidalgo was 0-for-8 from 3-point range, which meant that Michigan only had to guard her penetration and not her outside shot. With no other major offensive weapons, that sealed Notre Dame's fate.

BUT ... the turnover margin was only 19-18 (Michigan actually had one more turnover than the Irish), and the points off turnovers only favored Michigan by 22-18. Notre Dame actually had one more steal than Michigan. and Hidalgo only had 3 of ND's 12 steals.

The point is that for the now #6 team in the country to turn the ball over 19 times against a team that they were beating by 39 points is NOT a good sign for them. UConn may generate 25 to 30 turnovers by Michigan on Friday evening, based on that evidence.

Based on my "eye test" from watching the replay, it appears to me that Quarles-Daniels is the only really proficient ball handler in their starting lineup. Olson and Swords are really forwards, not ball-handling guards. Olson is strong but not quick; Swords appears to be quicker than Olson but not very strong at all. I don't see them really being able to handle Sarah or Blanca at either end of the floor (but then who can?). And Olson and Swords are the heart of Michigan's offensive production.

I think it might be a rational decision for Michigan to deploy a zone defense against UConn. That gives them more protection against penetration, but it should allow Azzi and Sarah (not to mention Ashlynn, Allie, and Caroline) to fire almost at will from the 3-point line. If all of UConn's 3-point shooters are having a cold night (like Hidalgo did), then the game might be close, but if it then comes down to taking care of the ball, controlling the boards, and scoring in the paint, then I think UConn will have advantages in all of those areas.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Thanks Cferraro04!
I enjoy your analysis each game!

 

[Basingstoke]

Is picking nits allowed on this site?

Bone Dog, I'll respectfully disagree with just one of your disagreements.

Of course this is a biased fan site, but even so, I find it hard to give Shade the advantage over either Olson or Swords, both of whom have made the Wooden Award Watch List and the Jersey Mike's Naismith Trophy Women's College Player of the Year Watch List as sophomores and both of whom have much better stats in virtually every category than Shade so far this season. Of course, Ash could get hot while Olson or Swords go cold in this game, but I don't think the empirical evidence thus far supports the probability of that outcome for this game's comparative analysis.

Blanca over Olson and Swords? I can see that with or without UConn bias, even though she hasn't statistically "proven" much with a mere n=2 games, because lots of UConn fans have evaluated her elite potential from many months of scrutinizing her Italian league videos and her scrimmages in addition to her impressive first two regular season games.

Who knows about whether Ash will outshine Olson or Swords, but I will just offer 2 words: Iowa State...