Game Analysis - Game 28 - UConn v. Villanova - II | The Boneyard

Game Analysis - Game 28 - UConn v. Villanova - II

cferraro04

cferraro04

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GENERAL COMMENTS:

This is the second time the Huskies will be facing the Wildcats this year. The first meeting ended with a 49-point UConn victory, 99-50. Sarah Strong was unstoppable (as she usually is) that day with 24 points and 9 rebounds in 27 minutes of play. UConn out-rebounded Villanova 46 to 34. UConn was able to turn over Villanova 26 times with 16 steals. UConn did not shoot the three-ball well that day, only hitting on 6 threes while Villanova knocked down 7 threes.

Because of the weak schedule in the Big East, UConn has been slipping slightly in the RPI and SOS rankings. UConn's RPI is 3, and its SOS is 21. Villanova's RPI is 24, and its SOS is 62. UConn's NET Ranking is 1, and Villanova's NET Ranking is a respectable 37. Villanova is 2nd in the Big East behind UConn. Their in conference record is 14-3, and they are 21-5 overall. Villanova is on a 6-game winning streak. UConn remains undefeated at 27-0. They are on a 43-game winning streak, which ties it for the 7th-longest winning streak in NCAA Division I history. They already own the longest win streak at 111 games and the second-longest win streak at 90 games. They also have a 63-game winning streak in conference games, and they have a 126-game regular-season winning streak. UConn is the number one-ranked team in the country, and if they win against Villanova, they will clinch their 13th straight outright conference regular-season title.

Villanova plays a 4-guard offense starting 1 freshman, 1 sophomore, 2 juniors, and 1 senior. Villanova averages 73 points per game while holding their opponents to 61.0 points per game. They hit 8.8 three-pointers per game. Villanova averages 35.7 rebounds per game. Villanova averages 13.2 turnovers per game, and they force 17.6 turnovers per game on their opponents. They average 9.8 steals per game.

I expect that UConn will once again dominate the undersized, less talented, less experienced Villanova squad. The only question I have is, will Blanca play?

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward v. Brynn McCurry, 6'1" - Junior Forward - Brynn averages 11.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.0 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Serah is 7.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .7 steals, and 1.5 blocks. In game one, Serah had 7 points and 5 rebounds, 1 block in 16 minutes of play, while Brynn had 11 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 blocks, 2 steals, and made 1 three-pointer in 28 minutes of play. ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward v. Denae Carter, 6'0" - Senior - Guard - Denae averages 7.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. Sarah is averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 3.4 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 1.5 three-pointers per game. Last time these two teams met, Sarah had 24 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 5 blocks, 3 steals, and 1 three-pointer. Denae had 3 points, 4 rebounds, 1 block before fouling out after only 11 minutes of play. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard v. Kennedy Henry, 6'0" - Freshman Guard - Kennedy is averaging 9.5 points, 1.4 three-pointers, 4.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.5 steals, and 1 block per game. Azzi is averaging 17.8 points, 3.0 three-pointers, 2.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.4 steals, and .4 blocks per game. In the first match-up, Azzi had 14 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 2 three-pointers in 28 minutes of play. Kennedy had 12 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 3 three-pointers in 33 minutes of play. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard v. Kelsey Joens, 5'10" - Junior Guard - Kelsey averages 5.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, .8 assists, .7 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 7.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.4 three-pointers per game. In their first match-up, Kelsey had 0 points, 1 rebound, and two assists in 20 minutes of play. Ashlynn had 2 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1 steal. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Jasmine Boscoe, 5'7" Sophomore Guard - Jasmine averages 18.1 points, 1.7 three-pointers, 3.7 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. KK averages 7.2 points, .5 three-pointers, 2.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 2.8 steals per game. In the first match-up, KK ate Boscoe for lunch. KK had 13 points, 0 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, and 1 three-pointer, while Boscoe had 8 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists, and she was 0-3 from three-point land. Can KK do it again...I don't know...it is possible. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

BENCH:

I am assuming that Blanca plays
UConn brings 36.4 points, 15.9 rebounds, 9.1 assists, 5.3 steals, 1.7 blocks, and 3.2 three-pointers off the bench.
Villanova brings 23.4 points, 12.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2.9 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 4.3 three-pointers off the bench
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

This game will be played at Finneran Pavilion... However, while they may get the benefit of playing at home (maybe worth about 4 points), they will still be playing the number one team in the country with the number one defense in the country. A UConn team that will be hungry to clinch the conference title outright. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Denise Dillon will be entering her sixth season at her alma mater in 2025-26. In her first five years as the Wildcat head coach, Dillon led Villanova to a 114-51 overall record (.690) and a 63-26 BIG EAST mark (.707). During her first five years on the Main Line, she has guided Villanova to two NCAA Tournament appearances, one WNIT berth, and two trips to the WBIT, including one championship game and a semifinal appearance. Her 22-year overall coaching record currently stands at 443-262 (.628) entering the 2025-26 season.

Last year, Dillon and the Wildcats tallied their fourth consecutive 20-win season with a 21-15 overall record and an 11-7 BIG EAST Conference mark. The Wildcats earned a bid to the WBIT, where they advanced to the semifinals for the second straight season. A season before, Villanova advanced to the championship game of the inaugural WBIT. Under Dillon’s tutelage last year, freshman guard Jasmine Bascoe was named first team All-BIG EAST, in addition to earning a spot on the league’s All-Rookie Team.

The 2022-23 season was a magical one for Dillon and the Wildcats. Villanova went 30-7 overall and 17-3 in BIG EAST play and advanced to the Sweet 16 for the second time in school history. The 30 wins set a school record for single-season victories. The Wildcats finished in second place in the BIG EAST regular season standings and played in the conference championship game for the second straight season.

Under Dillon’s direction in 2021-22, Villanova tallied a 24-8 record, including a 15-4 BIG EAST Conference mark, which was good enough for a second-place finish in the final league standings. For their efforts, the Wildcats earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, where they defeated BYU in the first round before falling to Michigan in round two. Villanova also went 3-1 in Philadelphia Big 5 play to capture the City Series championship.

For her efforts in 2021-22, Dillon was named both the BIG EAST and Philadelphia Big 5 Coach of the Year. This marks the fifth time that Dillon has been named a conference coach of the year. During her Drexel career, she was a four-time CAA Coach of the Year.

Dillon came to Villanova from Drexel University, where she built the Dragons into a perennial contender, making a name for herself in the Philadelphia sports scene and the women's basketball coaching ranks, while bringing her team national attention for its consistent success and high level of play. She led the Dragons to 10 postseason appearances, including winning the WNIT championship in 2013. During her 17-year Drexel career, Dillon compiled a 329-204 (.617) record.

From 2016-20, Dillon's Drexel teams boasted a 96-35 record (.732) and advanced to national postseason play each season. In all, the Dragons won 20 or more games seven times under Dillon's watch, claimed four CAA titles, and played in five conference championship games. Dillon was named the CAA Coach of the Year in 2005, 2009, 2018, and 2020.

The traits that have allowed Dillon to excel during her coaching career were honed during her time as a Villanova student-athlete. She played for head coach Harry Perretta and was part of the Wildcats teams that went 68-43 (.613) during her collegiate career. Dillon accumulated 1,355 points and 677 rebounds while developing into an All-BIG EAST honoree and a three-time All-Big 5 selection. She remains one of the all-time greats in the Villanova program and is enshrined in the Big 5 Hall of Fame (2004), the Villanova Varsity Club Hall of Fame (2012), the Delaware County Athletes Hall of Fame (2012), and the Cardinal O'Hara High School Hall of Fame (2018).

Dillon is a very good coach, but she is going up against a legend who has a very strong coaching staff.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 89
VILLANOVA - 47
MOV - 42
 
Excellent analysis Sensei! Thank goodness you’re back!

Nothing to disagree about here. I don’t assume Blanca will play. If she does, I expect some rust. On the other hand, I suspect a resurgent KK will once again dominate Bascoe. Jasmine is an excellent player and so it may not be possible to keep her down forever.

The other guard to watch is Kennedy Henry, and this time around, I expect Azzi to outshine her by a much larger margin just on the basis of recent performances. Azzi is on the rise.

Nice write up of Denise Dillon. She is an excellent coach and will have her team ready to defend their home court. I expect a tough game and competitive, even if we blow them out in the end.
 
Bone Dog said:
Excellent analysis Sensei! Thank goodness you’re back!

Nothing to disagree about here. I don’t assume Blanca will play. If she does, I expect some rust. On the other hand, I suspect a resurgent KK will once again dominate Bascoe. Jasmine is an excellent player and so it may not be possible to keep her down forever.

The other guard to watch is Kennedy Henry, and this time around, I expect Azzi to outshine her by a much larger margin just on the basis of recent performances. Azzi is on the rise.

Nice write up of Denise Dillon. She is an excellent coach and will have her team ready to defend their home court. I expect a tough game and competitive, even if we blow them out in the end.
Expand ...
I agree on Kennedy Henry. She was quite the force for
Villanova against Creighton in that last game.
 
Henry was their best player when the teams met earlier this season, even tough her stat line wasn't great - 12 points (4-11), 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 TO in 33 minutes, a minus 35. She is long. Carter was in foul trouble and only played 11 minutes before fouling out. Bascoe never got anything going. Villanova committed 18 fouls and turned it over 26 times.

Look for UConn to again try and take Bascoe out of the game with KK, K9, and others, and to try and get Villanova to play fast. Even with Carter, UConn has a big height advantage as Watson at 6'4" hardly plays. This would be a good time for the post players to assert themselves.

I look at this as a bounce back game and I suspect the team does as well. There is some extra motivation here - a reset from the below average performance against Marquette, and to make another statement to the team they are likely to meet in the Big East Final.

Hopefully it is over early and the bench plays the fourth quarter. And also hopefully, Sarah is at or near 100%.
 
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This game and the remaining 5 games are conditioning and team cohesiveness games. I also believe it is an attitude building course in that WE are UCONN and WE ARE NO.1!! Villanova is a good team but not up against Uconn as our defense is NO 1 in the country and our scoring is NO 2 in the country. Too much to handle. 12 more games to win and then NO 13. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!
 
If Blanca plays, her game condition will be important for the next couple of games. If she has little or no rust and her conditioning is good, I expect we might see less of Serah and Jana. I think Geno has both under the microscope and hasn't been too happy with either's performance lately. However he did say some positive stuff about Jana after the Marquette game, so who knows.
However, I'm hoping both get time on the court and actually have positive efforts and good games.
 
I think in game one, we will see Blanca trying to get her sea legs under her. Her conditioning will probably be a little off. And we may see Geno limit her minutes, as he has in the past with other players.

I admit I have been somewhat mystified regarding Jana's play. We often see a sophomore leap in many players. I remember something Geno said years ago, when Tina Charles was on the team. He remarked that bigs take a little longer to develop...that could be the case with Jana, basically just needs more time. I am also wondering if there is something called a Sophomore Slump. And players can fall into either the "Sophomore leap" or the 'Sophomore Slump." Such things as injuries, consistent playing time, and new players added to the team, off-season conditioning (Charde Houston and Wilnett Crockett come to mind).

With regards to Serah Williams...She needed time to adjust to the UConn system. I think she has been playing better of late. Her moves around the basket are pretty awesome. During her years at Wisconsin, she was pretty much the 1st or 2nd option, and she was the defensive player of the year. Her insertion into the starting line-up at UConn was an accomplishment in and of itself. It is kind of like trying to hop on a galloping horse...it is a difficult thing to do. You can tell she is more comfortable playing in the UConn sets now. I am extremely optimistic about having Serah out there for the postseason. And, I can't tell how much I love that Geno can bring Heckle, Ziebell, El Alfy, and Blanca off the bench.
 
If you look at video of Jana right before she got hurt, she was very mobile, actually very quick for a big and she could shoot all over. The injury robbed her of that and she hasn't gotten it back. You can't say the big we thought we were getting isn't in there, she had it and just needs to get back. This is more about injury recovery than sophomore leap in my opinion.
 
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This could be the best game of the season, and the most revealing, before the BE tournament begins. The Michigan game was close, but too early to reveal what either team is capable of once everyone is in mid-season form. The Tennessee game was an interesting challenge but without Blanca available, and in my view marred by ineffective reffing of overly aggressive play.

Villanova will play tough but not so slappy-grabby-pushy-shovey as Tennessee did. This should give us a much clearer picture of what each team can do. And, for the record, I expect the play in the NCAA tournament will be much better reffed. Just as teams need to get into tournament form, so do the refs. Plus, with the heightened scrutiny and better camera work, coaches will be wary of wracking up too many fouls and will caution their stars to avoid overly aggressive play.
 
cferraro04 said:
I think in game one, we will see Blanca trying to get her sea legs under her. Her conditioning will probably be a little off. And we may see Geno limit her minutes, as he has in the past with other players.

I admit I have been somewhat mystified regarding Jana's play. We often see a sophomore leap in many players. I remember something Geno said years ago, when Tina Charles was on the team. He remarked that bigs take a little longer to develop...that could be the case with Jana, basically just needs more time. I am also wondering if there is something called a Sophomore Slump. And players can fall into either the "Sophomore leap" or the 'Sophomore Slump." Such things as injuries, consistent playing time, and new players added to the team, off-season conditioning (Charde Houston and Wilnett Crockett come to mind).

With regards to Serah Williams...She needed time to adjust to the UConn system. I think she has been playing better of late. Her moves around the basket are pretty awesome. During her years at Wisconsin, she was pretty much the 1st or 2nd option, and she was the defensive player of the year. Her insertion into the starting line-up at UConn was an accomplishment in and of itself. It is kind of like trying to hop on a galloping horse...it is a difficult thing to do. You can tell she is more comfortable playing in the UConn sets now. I am extremely optimistic about having Serah out there for the postseason. And, I can't tell how much I love that Geno can bring Heckle, Ziebell, El Alfy, and Blanca off the bench.
cferraro04 said:
I think in game one, we will see Blanca trying to get her sea legs under her. Her conditioning will probably be a little off. And we may see Geno limit her minutes, as he has in the past with other players.

I admit I have been somewhat mystified regarding Jana's play. We often see a sophomore leap in many players. I remember something Geno said years ago, when Tina Charles was on the team. He remarked that bigs take a little longer to develop...that could be the case with Jana, basically just needs more time. I am also wondering if there is something called a Sophomore Slump. And players can fall into either the "Sophomore leap" or the 'Sophomore Slump." Such things as injuries, consistent playing time, and new players added to the team, off-season conditioning (Charde Houston and Wilnett Crockett come to mind).

With regards to Serah Williams...She needed time to adjust to the UConn system. I think she has been playing better of late. Her moves around the basket are pretty awesome. During her years at Wisconsin, she was pretty much the 1st or 2nd option, and she was the defensive player of the year. Her insertion into the starting line-up at UConn was an accomplishment in and of itself. It is kind of like trying to hop on a galloping horse...it is a difficult thing to do. You can tell she is more comfortable playing in the UConn sets now. I am extremely optimistic about having Serah out there for the postseason. And, I can't tell how much I love that Geno can bring Heckle, Ziebell, El Alfy, and Blanca off the bench.
Expand ...
Jana is better than she was last year. But, no, there has been no big leap and I'm not sure there ever will be one.
Expand ...
 
Just want to see BQ play tonite. No real chance to repeat without her healthy and gaming. The small lineup with her at the 4 works, with Zabell or Shade does not. They will need Williams and Jana to REBOUND. Since Brady is officially out for the year they will both be needed. Shade has got to start making shots.
 
Live Stats &1:
&1 Live Stats for yet-to-be-played games are available via this schedule.
  • The link is removed for played games.
  • The schedule links are useful as to when pre-published links don’t work (as the case was for MI and Utah) as the game is in-progress.
 
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