Game Analysis - Game 24 - UConn vs Tennessee

[Zarathustra]

I decided to check in on the LADY VOL NATIONAL BLOG.
A rather balanced set of comments. The Pre-Game Pressers
with H.C. Kim Caldwell and Jewel Spear were enthusiastic and
refreshing. From my calculations their (TENN fans) prognostications
were trending with TENN winning by 3.5 to 4.5 points. (One
outlier of TENN by +15.). I saw that the MASSY RATING was
76 - 72: UCONN. The big things that I took away from the
Pressers was that TENN dug themselves a big hole against
Missouri (early foul trouble by guards "Kaiya" and "Samara")
and that the Lady Vols CAME BACK strong, and they toughed
it out to win in the fourth.
So, all the BONEYARDER'S Comments are ON TARGET: We need
to start strong, limit turnovers, and play an "EVERYBODY EATS" (team basketball)
game for 40 minutes. Defense and rebounding with a
breakout game or two!!, GO HUSKIES!!!
P.S. When the Lady Vols fans picked UCONN to win, the winning
margin of victory is about + 8 for UCONN, only one big
outlier score of - 16, i.e. UCONN 88 -62. Interesting stuff.

 

[Cornell Lt]

Who else on the team has played against Tennessee?

No one on the current UConn roster has played this version of Tennessee. The revolving line change substitution pattern, the full court press and jacking up 30+ threes will be new to UConn.

 

[oldude]

No one on the current UConn roster has played this version of Tennessee. The revolving line change substitution pattern, the full court press and jacking up 30+ threes will be new to UConn.

Not only haven’t they played this version of TN, but the Lady Vol roster has no less than 11 transfers. So in effect, this is an almost entirely different TN team.

 

[Bone Dog]

No one on the current UConn roster has played this version of Tennessee. The revolving line change substitution pattern, the full court press and jacking up 30+ threes will be new to UConn.

I wonder if it will feel a bit like the Jackson St game from last season. They were a tall, athletic team that had dominated a weak conference with an aggressive defense, a deep rotation, and an undisciplined, playground-style offense. Paige engineered a decisive thumping, and we led by 27 midway through the 4th quarter, though they closed the gap to 22 on the strength of three 3 pointers by T. Boler. As a whole, that game followed the pattern folks have been recommending for this one: we opened up a 22-8 lead after the 1st q, and led 49-28 at halftime.

Paige, of course, was tremendous on that day with 28 pts 11 rebounds 7 assists and 3 steals for a double-double. But Ash was also awesome with 26 pts 6 rebounds 2 steals and hit 5-11 from 3, and Aaliyah had 20 pts and Nika added 7 pts and 7 assists. And though Ice didn't score, she contributed 5 rebounds 4 assists and 2 blocks in 22 mins. In other words, it was classic UConn basketball -- tough defense, lots of steals and even more assists (23 assists on 34 made baskets).

As you suggested elsewhere, playing UConn basketball is the best way forward.

Of course, the SEC is a much tougher conference than the SWAC. But several here have suggested that a lot of Tennessee's wins and stats come from a weak OOC schedule. Against the stronger SEC competition, they have not produced the same numbers. In their last 4 games, they've averaged 71.25 pts on 38% shooting, and 30% from 3, and their turnover advantage largely evaporated. It's hard to find a good contrast for UConn since our toughest competition came before the conference schedule began. We also struggled to shoot 3s against ND and USC, but we shot well against the other ranked opponents. A lot depends on whether our performance in conference games will carry over better than Tennessee's performance in their OOC games did.

 

[PacoSwede]

Awesome game! Practically a ‘statement’ 3rd quarter from Nika, and then Azzi slammed the door shut in the 4th.

connolly and gauer on their podcast today were uneasy about tonight because something (undefined) is missing on the team. my thought is that nika muhl in the past provided what they were talking about. is that right?

 

[oldude]

connolly and gauer on their podcast today were uneasy about tonight because something (undefined) is missing on the team. my thought is that nika muhl in the past provided what they were talking about. is that right?

No, it’s not Nika. It’s someone in the post who can bang, rebound and score, like Aaliyah. UConn has the best group of guards and wings in the country. But the Huskies will need solid defense and rebounding from Jana, Ice and Aubrey tonight.

 

[Bone Dog]

No, it’s not Nika. It’s someone in the post who can bang, rebound and score, like Aaliyah. UConn has the best group of guards and wings in the country. But the Huskies will need solid defense and rebounding from Jana, Ice and Aubrey tonight.

I'm not overly impressed by Tennessee's two bigs, Spearman and Hollingshead. They are pretty good on offense, maybe better than Ice and Jana. Hollingshead in particular played well against Aaliyah 2 years ago. But I think Ice is a better defender than either of them, and Jana may not outplay them, but they won't dominate her. And we have someone who can bang with their bigs in Sarah, but can't really be guarded by them. Who will take up this slack? Puckett? Darby? Latham?

I think Tennessee's strength comes from their trio of big guards, Cooper, Whitehorn, Spear, and the little guards like Spencer and Boyd give them good minutes too. And they have a decent trio of 6'2 players: Pucket, Darby and Latham. They can score and rebound, though they aren't as speedy as the rest of the lineup.

We hear a lot of talk about the hockey-style lineup changes, but the second line is not nearly as potent offensively as the usual starters -- Spearman Cooper Spear Spencer Whitehorn. This is also the group that does the bulk of the scoring and can get 70 pts/g. I think the question is only half about how our starters line up against them. And I think Paige Azzi Sarah Kaitlyn and Jana match up quite well against them.

If we can dominate against the second lineup -- I mean if KK Ash Morgan Aubrey Ice can outplay Puckett Darby Boyd Hollingshead Latham -- that might force Caldwell to play the starters longer than they're used to. Their dominance depends in large part on the starters being able to run as hard in the 4th quarter as they did in the 1st. Take that away and you might just choke off their late rallies. I hope that Morgan and Aubrey do good work against the second unit. I have no doubt KK Ice and Ash will.

I also hope we have better mix and match lineups than they do. Caldwell has experimented with mixed lineups, starting Puckett instead of Spearman for example. And Cooper Spence and Spear have on occasion played with the second lineup. But Geno may have done much more of this mixing of lineups. Over the last month we've seen him play KK and Ash and Ice, and even Morgan and Allie, with one or more of the Big Three quite often. That extra experience is likely to come in quite handy tonight. Being able to rest Paige Azzi and Sarah early, letting Aubrey or Morgan fill in here and there for Sarah or Ice, these moves could be difference makers. Lineups with chemistry play much better than last second patchworks.

At the first hockey-style line substitution, if Geno brings in KK and Ash for Azzi and Kaitlyn, it might be quite a surprise. KK and Ash have at least as much intensity as any of the Tennessee guards on defense. There will be no fall off in that department. When their first unit returns, bring in Azzi and put Aubrey on Cooper and rest Paige and Sarah, and great things might happen. No hockey style changes, but the effect could be astonishing.

But my final crystal ball prediction is: if we can get a few stops to open the game, Paige Azzi and Sarah will take it from there.

 

[DEFCONN1]

I’m confident but nervous about this game. i can’t help but think back to our loss our tournament loss to Ohio State who pressed us into 25 turnovers. If we beat the Vols press , we win, and we now have Paige for this game and they don’t !

 

[Zarathustra]

I’m confident but nervous about this game. i can’t help but think back to our loss our tournament loss to Ohio State who pressed us into 25 turnovers. If we beat the Vols press , we win, and we now have Paige for this game and they don’t !

In the pre game Presser H.C. Kim Caldwell noted that the MISSOURI
press was a problem for the Lady Vols... despite the fact that she
had emphasized how to attack the Missouri press in three (?)
practices prior to the game! Does anyone on the BONEYARD
believe that the UCONN press is not as effective as the one
used by the MISSOURI TIGRERS?????? GO Raging HUSKIE DEFENSE!
"DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS" (if we score more points that
those other guys!).

 

[YKCornelius]

My primary concern is about how UConn shooters will react/adjust to Tennessee being aggressive and overly physical early on. I expect every jump shot to be contested aggressively in the opening five minutes - to include fouling when the shooter is going up or in the process of releasing the ball.

Fouling on jump shots at the onset of each half in order for the shooter to be uncertain about her shot for the rest of the half (or game) is a viable tactic for any team that can rotate 10-11 players on the floor. Simply put, I expect the Lady Vols to come out as physical as possible, with hands on the opponent they are guarding at all times. If the refs call it tight from the tip, then Tennessee can back off after the first five minutes of each half. If the refs "let them play" then the Lady Vols can continue - or even ramp up - the aggressive tactics.

Bottom line: In addition to the hostile crowd and the full court pressure, the Huskies must be mentally tough to overcome Tennessee's overly aggressive defensive tactics. If the Huskies come out mentally tough, they will win. Go UConn!

 

[Skeets]

No, it’s not Nika. It’s someone in the post who can bang, rebound and score, like Aaliyah. UConn has the best group of guards and wings in the country. But the Huskies will need solid defense and rebounding from Jana, Ice and Aubrey tonight.

OD, I agree. There's no Nika, but KK is really fast, Ash makes herself a PITA, and Aubrey is a very good defender who can rebound. What's missing is Aaliyah. I'm a little concerned because Aaliyah was a big part of breaking the press. UConn would park her in the middle of the backcourt and throw a high pass to her and she would hit whoever was open running down court. You may recall against the Ohio State Aaliyah was on the bench in foul trouble and UConn was having all kinds of trouble breaking the press without her.

I might add that UConn does too much help defense and winds up giving up an open 3. Any halfway decent coach of a 3-point shooting team will pick up on this and exploit it.

 

[Stagnant]

 

[PacoSwede]

i think in post #65 the podcasters were referring to some intangible factor missing from the team ... post play is very specific. it's obvious.

they might have felt the failure to replace nika's attitude (this isn't about her defensive -- or offensive --contribution, but her emotional one) was making them a bit leery. ... is that clearer?

 

[Stagnant]

Rebounding will be incredibly tough without ice. Especially since we are only comfortable playing Jana for around 15 minutes. Hopefully Aubrey is ready to go.

 

[Stagnant]

Ice is out. She’s week-to-week.