Game Analysis - Game 23 - UConn vs Butler

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Let's not look past Butler to Knoxville. We will be visiting the Orange soon enough. We have to play this game first. The first thing that strikes me and is completely nonessential but worth mentioning. I am quite sure that Butler is the first team to have three players named Lily. Two of them are in the starting line-up and they are both 5'11" freshman guards...I think we are going to have to refer to them as "bookends". Butler is certainly no offensive powerhouse averaging 64 points per game. Their opponents average 60.7 points. They do get to the foul line twice as much as the Huskies do. Their three-point shooting is less than stellar only averaging 6.6 threes per game. They are 12 and 11 with an RPI of 172 and a SoS of 144. Geno will have the opportunity to play everyone. Maybe this will be a breakout game for Aubrey... I think Geno will play his starters for about 20 to 24 minutes. Playing in front of the home crowd at the XL...with it probably being the last time for Paige and the possibility of it being the last time for Aubrey and Azzi although, I expect to see both Azzi and Aubrey back next season.

RPI / SoS:

Butlers' RPI - 171
Butlers' Opponents RPI - 4, 13, 13, 24, 43, 75, 83, 95. 115. 115, 132, 166, 183, 223, 268, 316, 318, 321, 326, 337, 344

UConn's RPI - 5
UConn's Opponent RPI - 7, 8, 13, 15, 30, 43, 51, 51, 53, 54, 75, 75, 94, 102, 107, 113, 115, 122,131,183,231,268

Butlers' SoS - 144
Butlers' Opponents RPI - 4, 11, 19, 19, 23, 35, 49, 49, 54, 59, 59, 72, 107, 119, 125, 159, 164, 204, 223, 228, 260, 310, 352

UConn's SoS - 6
UConn's Opponents SoS - 7, 9, 9, 17, 19, 23, 23, 28, 32, 33, 49, 51, 58, 59, 98, 125, 157, 159, 193, 240, 348

PLAYER MATCH-UPS:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - RS-Freshman - Center vs Sidney Jaynes, 6'3" - Senior - Forward - Sydney averages: 7.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists. This could be a double-double game for Jana who is averaging 5'5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1 steal per game. In front of the home crowd, Jana will show why Geno was so excited about her. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Kilyn McGruff, 6'0" - Senior - Guard - Caroline Strande's absence makes Butler who was already an offensively challenged team even more impotent. While Kilyn is now Butler's most productive player she will be no match for Sarah Strong. Kilyn averages 11.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.39 three-pointers. Sarah is having an All-American season so far. She is averaging 17.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.4 steals, 1.2 blocks, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" - RS Senior - Guard vs Lily Carmody, 5'11" - Freshman - Guard - Lily is averaging 7.5 points, 3 rebounds 1.8 assists, 1.9 steals, and 1.4 three-pointers per game. Paige is in the conversation for POY and she is averaging 19.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.0 steals and two three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate - Guard vs Lily Zeinstra, 5'11" - Freshman - Guard - I can see it now...Geno yells, "Azzi, get Lily" and Azzi retorts, "which one". Oh well...back to being serious, Lily Z averages 6.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.1 three-pointers per game. Azzi who looks to be having the time of her life out there on the court, is averaging 11.2 points, 1.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1 steal, and 1.9 three-points per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Karsyn Norman, 5'6" - Sophmore - Guard - Karsyn has started in the last 7 games. She averages 3.4 points, 1.4 rebounds, and .52 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn had a great game against DePaul. It would be great to see her build off that game in this one. Kaitlyn is averaging 6.7 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.0 steals, and hits the three-ball at a .7 per game clip. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn's bench players will see significant time in this one. UConn will bring 28.1 points, and 15.9 rebounds off the bench. Butler will bring 19.9 points and 9.8 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

UConn plays its last regular season game at the XL Center in front of the home crowd. Players want to work out any last-minute kinks with Tennessee and South Carolina right around the corner. UConn is just too big, too athletic, and too talented.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

The UConn coaching staff will not be out-coached in this one. They will make sure UConn takes care of business in this one.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

FUN PREDICTIONS:

Paige - 15 points
Sarah - 16 points
Azzi - 15 points
Ashlynn - 9 points
Aubrey - 8 points
Jana - 6 points
KK - 6 points
Allie - 6 points
Kaitlyn - 5 points
Morgan- 4 points
Ice - 4 points
Qadence - 4 points

Total points - 98

SCORE:

UCONN - 98
BUTLER - 49
MOV - 49

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei.

It’s surprising to see Butler’s roster presented like this. I haven’t been able to watch a single game of theirs. And they have had some surprising results, like beating Creighton, Georgetown and Providence. Or taking DePaul to OT. So it’s hard to get a read on them.

I’m particularly interested in Jaynes and how Jana will do against her. I expect you’re right to think that the statistical edge Jaynes has will not materialize in this game. But thinking of a common opponent, she did pretty well against Ariel Jenkins in their game against Georgetown, about as well as Jana and Ice did against her.

The loss of Strande to injury seems to have scrambled this roster a bit and freshmen have gotten more minutes as a result, and sometimes play well, and other times do not.

I’m also expecting a 40+ point blowout, and I’d like to see Jana get some good minutes. It would also be good if Morgan and Allie could get extra minutes.

 

[BIGMAC]

I believe this is Aubrey's last year and there are 3 more home games 2 at Gampel and 1 at the XL center.

 

[JellyBean]

Thanks, as always for the awesome analysis and score prediction. It should be a nice game.

 

[Huskee11]

UConn has four more home games, 2 at XL and 2 at Gampel.

XL - 2/2 versus Butler and 2/27 versus Creighton.

Gampel - 2/12 versus Saint John's and 3/2 versus Marquette (senior day).

There will also undoubtedly be two NCAA games at Gampel.

Losing Strande for the season was a big blow to Butler. Last time out, Seton Hall held them to 11 points in the first half. It will probably be a similar result Sunday, and there will be plenty of time for the reserves to play.

Since Paige is likely to only play about 24 minutes it would be nice to see her get out of the blocks early like she did against Villanova (14 points in the first quarter). Would also like to see 20+ productive minutes for Aubrey, some good post play from our centers, and for Morgan to shoot when she is open.

 

[Topsail]

Thanks again, Sensei.

It’s surprising to see Butler’s roster presented like this. I haven’t been able to watch a single game of theirs. And they have had some surprising results, like beating Creighton, Georgetown and Providence. Or taking DePaul to OT. So it’s hard to get a read on them.

I’m particularly interested in Jaynes and how Jana will do against her. I expect you’re right to think that the statistical edge Jaynes has will not materialize in this game. But thinking of a common opponent, she did pretty well against Ariel Jenkins in their game against Georgetown, about as well as Jana and Ice did against her.

The loss of Strande to injury seems to have scrambled this roster a bit and freshmen have gotten more minutes as a result, and sometimes play well, and other times do not.

I’m also expecting a 40+ point blowout, and I’d like to see Jana get some good minutes. It would also be good if Morgan and Allie could get extra minutes.

Butler lost to Creighton twice