Game Analysis - Game 18 - UConn vs Villanova

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Villanova is one of the stronger teams in an overall weak Big East Conference. Their RPI is 18; their SOS is 20, and their NET Ranking is 33. Villanova is currently in 2nd place behind UConn in the Big East Conference, with a 14-3 overall record. While they are small in the post, they do have a plethora of big guards. They average a respectable 75.2 points per game while holding their opponents to only 59.6 points per game. On the whole, they take pretty good care of the basketball, only averaging 13.1 turnovers per game. It will be interesting to see if UConn's highly vaunted defense will cause Villanova to speed up and/or get sloppy, leading to more turnovers than they are accustomed to.

Villanova, on the defensive side, forces their opponents into 17.0 turnovers per game. This feat is accomplished with some fairly good defense on their part, where they average 9.5 steals per game. UConn will need to take care of the basketball and keep its turnovers down. Villanova is a fairly good passing team, as they average nearly 20 assists (19.7) per game. Villanova's defensive rating is 57, allowing 83.9 points per 100 possessions (Warren/Nolan). For perspective, UConn's defensive rating is number 1, allowing 70.3 points per 100 possessions. I think our starters may see more minutes in this game as I think it will take UConn a little longer to put this game out of reach than usual. However, that being said, I do expect that somewhere late in the third quarter or the beginning of the 4th quarter, the outcome will become crystal clear. If UConn blows out Villanova early, then I think that it will be a statement game as to just how dangerous UConn truly is.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Denae Carter, 6'0" - Senior Forward - While Brynn has an inch on Denae, given Brynn's total statistical profile, I believe that Sarah Strong is a better match-up for Brynn, and Denae is a better match-up for Serah Williams. Denae is a stat stuffer, averaging 7.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game. Serah Williams is averaging 7.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .8 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. These players are almost identical statistically, with Denae performing only slightly better in all categories; however, UConn's team defense may make it more difficult for Denae to reach her numbers. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Brynn McCurry, 6'1" - Junior Forward - Brynn is Villanova's top post player. She averages 12.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, and .4 blocks per game. Sarah Strong is playing like a first-team All-American. She is averaging 18.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 3.7 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. She is averaging 1.6 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Jasmine Boscoe, 5'7" - Sophomore Guard - Jasmine is a handful and will be a tough match-up for Azzi. Her combined speed and her talent for leading her team as the floor general in addition to her ability to score the basketball, will present Azzi with one of her best challenges of the season. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Geno puts KK on Jasmine, as it is probably a better choice defensively for Geno. However, since her statistical profile more closely aligns with Azzi, I decided to do the statistical analysis as an Azzi vs Jasmine match-up. Jasmine averages 17.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. Jasmine also averages 30,9 minutes per game. Azzi is averaging 17.6 points, 2,5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and 3.1 three-pointers per game. Azzi is averaging 27.4 minutes per game. On a per minute basis, these players are statistically even...however, when you factor in the team defense and how it may impact each of these players, I believe the match-up tilts towards UConn SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Kelsey Joens, 5'10" - Junior Guard - Kelsey averages 7.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, .8 assists, .9 steals, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 7.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn's defense may cause there to be an even greater distinction statistically between these two players. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Dani Casseretti, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - Dani has recently been added to the starting five for the past two games as a result of Kennedy Henry being on the injured reserve list. In her two games as a starter, she has scored 5 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 three-pointer, and 9 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 three-pointer, respectively. Overall, she is averaging 4.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and .5 three-pointers per game. KK is averaging 6.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.8 steals, and .6 three-pointers per game. KK will more than likely make Dani's life on the court very difficult. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH - FIRST 4 PLAYERS IN:

Villanova;
RayAnne Allen, 6'1" - Senior Guard (anyone recognize the similarity in her name to a former member of UConn's men's team? Ray is averaging 9.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .5 steals, and 2.0 three-pointers per game.
Brooke Bender, 6'1" - Freshman Forward - 5.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, .8 steals, and 1.4 three-pointers
Kylee Watson, 6'4" - Graduate Forward - 4.0 points, 1.8 rebounds, .9 assists
MD Ntumbae, 5'9" - Freshman Guard - 2.1 points, 1.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 steals
Total: 20.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2.2 steals, and 3.4 three-pointers
UConn:
Blanca Quinones, 6'2" - Freshman Forward - 10.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.9 steals, .4 blocks, and 1.1 three-pointers
Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 6.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.5 steals, and .5 three-pointers
Allie Ziebell, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.2 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.0 steals, .4 blocks, and 1.4 three-pointers
Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - Redshirt Sophomore - 4.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, .9 assists
Total: 28.6 points, 10.8 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 4.4 steals, 3.0 three-pointers
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

REST OF THE BENCH:

Villanova:
Rachel Wirts, Annie Welde - 1.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, .3 assists, .2 steals, .1 three-pointers
UConn:
Kelis Fisher, Ayanna Patterson, Caroline Ducharme - 6.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, .6 steals, .6 blocks, and .3 three-pointers
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Denise Dillon will be entering her sixth season at her alma mater in 2025-26. In her first five years as the Wildcat head coach, Dillon led Villanova to a 114-51 overall record (.690) and a 63-26 BIG EAST mark (.707). During her first five years on the Main Line, she has guided Villanova to two NCAA Tournament appearances, one WNIT berth and two trips to the WBIT, including one championship game and a semifinal appearance. Her 22-year overall coaching record currently stands at 443-262 (.628) entering the 2025-26 season.

Last year, Dillon and the Wildcats tallied their fourth consecutive 20-win season with a 21-15 overall record and an 11-7 BIG EAST Conference mark. The Wildcats earned a bid to the WBIT where they advanced to the semifinals for the second straight season. A season before, Villanova advanced to the championship game of the inaugural WBIT. Under Dillon’s tutelage last year, freshman guard Jasmine Bascoe was named first team All-BIG EAST, in addition to earning a spot on the league’s All-Rookie Team.

The 2022-23 season was a magical one for Dillon and the Wildcats. Villanova went 30-7 overall and 17-3 in BIG EAST play and advanced to the Sweet 16 for the second time in school history. The 30 wins set a school record for single season victories. The Wildcats finished in second place in the BIG EAST regular season standings and played in the conference championship game for the second straight season.

INTANGIBLES:
This game will be played in front of the UConn student body at Gampel Pavilion. The Huskies will look to continue their undefeated season. They are too big, too talented, too accomplished, and too experienced for the Wildcats. Defense will make the difference, the number 1 defense vs the number 57th defense. Too much offense and too much defense for Villanova to overcome. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 86
VILLANOVA - 61
MOV - 25

 

[victor64]

Just like the Geno coaching matchup, UConn has an automatic advantage over anybody you match up with Strong. I immediately feel sorry for whoever has to guard her.

It will never, ever happen but Dillon would be an effective replacement for Geno. I think she is that good. The only thing I wonder about is that some of her recent good players (Olsen and Webber) have transferred. I wonder if it is her or because Villanova can't compete with NIL.

From your study, has Villanova played any zone this year?

Again, thank you for the effort.

 

[Centerstream]

Another great analysis in the OP.
After watching a few Nova games this season, I think the Huskies HAVE to control Bascoe and Allen. In the words of Nova legend Harry Perretta, "if UConn wasn't in the BE, Bascoe would be the POY." Plus I believe she was selected to the BE Preseason First Team.
Off the bench, Allen usually provides instant scoring, normally open 3s from the corners.
I'm sure that the coaching staff is aware of my observations and will adjust accordingly. Also, how we do against Bascoe will be a preview to how we may do against Hidalgo on Monday, to a lesser degree tho.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks for this, Sensei. You've done it again! Excellent work.

One thing I might change is that I suspect Jasmine Bascoe is not likely to be Azzi's defensive responsibility. She is totally KK's sort of challenge, both speed-wise and height-wise. Villanova's offense (and defense) almost entirely runs through Jasmine. If we dominate, it will largely be because of what KK (and Kayleigh) are able to do about her.

I get the temptation to line up Jasmine's scoring stats alongside Azzi's. But I don't see the assignments working out that way on the court. If Kennedy Henry is out, I suspect Casseratti at 6'0" is much more likely to be who Azzi mainly guards, and who guards her. She can challenge Azzi's shot better with her long arms. It's a loss to 'Nova if Henry can't play.

This leaves the question of whether KK will get the advantage over Jasmine. Last season, KK and Kaitlyn combined to contain her very effectively, especially in the first game. These were both substantial beatdowns for 'Nova. But the fact is that Jasmine is undeniably an electrifying talent and she will score some and get some steals and assists.

 

[and one]

This would be a good game for UConn to win but be challenged for at least a half or more. With only ND and UT left in the regular season that might present problems, it would be good for the team to get some playing time in a close game. Making shots when you're up 30 is easier than when you are up or down two.

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks for this, Sensei. You've done it again! Excellent work.

One thing I might change is that I suspect Jasmine Bascoe is not likely to be Azzi's defensive responsibility. She is totally KK's sort of challenge, both speed-wise and height-wise. Villanova's offense (and defense) almost entirely runs through Jasmine. If we dominate, it will largely be because of what KK (and Kayleigh) are able to do about her.

I get the temptation to line up Jasmine's scoring stats alongside Azzi's. But I don't see the assignments working out that way on the court. If Kennedy Henry is out, I suspect Casseratti at 6'0" is much more likely to be who Azzi mainly guards, and who guards her. She can challenge Azzi's shot better with her long arms. It's a loss to 'Nova if Henry can't play.

This leaves the question of whether KK will get the advantage over Jasmine. Last season, KK and Kaitlyn combined to contain her very effectively, especially in the first game. These were both substantial beatdowns for 'Nova. But the fact is that Jasmine is undeniably an electrifying talent and she will score some and get some steals and assists.

In last season's home and away series with Villanova, we did not have Kayleigh, but it will be interesting to see how that duo does this season. I believe if KK gets the assignment, and I am inclined to agree with you that Geno will probably go that way, then a match-up would have to include both KK and Kayleigh vs Jasmine and Rayanne. Even with the defensive prowess of both KK and Kayleigh, I don't see the match-up at that position favoring UConn. Kayleigh and KK combine for: 13.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 4.3 steals, 0.1 blocks, and 1.1 three-pointers while Jasmine and Rayanne combine for 26.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 2.1 steals, .3 blocks, and 4.0 three-pointers. I can't make the advantage of 2 additional steals and 1 extra assist translate into a UConn advantage.