Game Analysis - Game 16 - UConn vs St. John's

[cferraro04]

Y'know, when I saw that Lavelle averages 3.1 rebounds a game, I figured she probably played 15-20 minutes a game. Nope, she plays 27 minutes, and as their forward, averages 3 rebounds a game, less than any other starter. Maybe they play a lot of zone and her primary job is to keep the opponents' bigs off the glass.

Unless Lavelle is always matched up with the other team's big, her being undersized in the post could also be a reason.

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks again, sensei! I’m always interested in the speedy teams as they can be challenging. And SJU seems to be another quick team, as SH would have been were Jada Eads healthy.

I am surprised that none of SJU’s starters averages 1 stl/game.

JRRRJ, in another thread, posted a link to an incredible stat page. I found it to be an invaluable tool. As per our discussion on why St. John's starters all average less than 1 steal per game, I had stated that I was unable to find out where ST. John's was ranked in steals per game because I was sure that 6.5 steals per game would put them at the bottom of the NCAA Division I teams, and wah-lah, sure enough, a short 2 minute purusal of the site produced the results I was looking for. St. John's is ranked 315th in steals per game. UConn is ranked 6th in steals per game.​

 

[Ironman23]

Just one request (& sorry to add to your potential workload): when citing pregame stats could you also include the minutes/game in which they were achieved?

And when you get time, could you make me a sandwich?

 

[diggerfoot]

Let me take this as my first opportunity to thank you and your analyses. You were getting criticized for how you “shortchanged” Shade, and now Arnold. Here is my defense of the OP.

1. While stats fail to reveal the whole picture, to do so would require huge investments in time. @cferraro04 would have to watch the games of multiple opponents multiple times for multiple players. I take your stats based limitations as informative, but with a grain of salt. Anyone who takes exception should provide a deeper, qualitative analysis rather than fault your methodology. And asking you to do more …. my own position is to not ask volunteers to do more when they already are doing more than I am willing to do.

2. While some of your stats allude to defense, they cannot possibly incorporate the contributory effect of our supreme team defense. This depresses the stats of opponents beyond what their individual players achieve. We are a team whose whole is greater than the parts. A stats based analysis cannot reflect that, so even when you might be proven “wrong” about doling out advantages it may be due to the whole and not a comparison of the parts.

3. Conversely, in most games at least one opponent player rises to the occasion. There are times when an opposing player as outperformed UConn’s superstars, but I would never expect you to predict an advantage for them. Rather, based on the usual occurrence that at least one opposing player will shine, it is reasonable to sign an opposing advantage to where it might happen, even though odds are it won’t for any particular match up.

So all this is to offer my support to you for your time and effort on this service, even when I think you might be “wrong” about an advantage, even when the results seem to indicate you are “wrong.” Thank you.

 

[ctfjr]

I predict Wagner is going to have a very bad night - at least to the 4th quarter when the bench is playing.

 

[jaundicedeye]

[Rather, based on the usual occurrence that at least one opposing player will shine, it is reasonable to sign an opposing advantage to where it might happen, even though odds are it won’t for any particular match up.]

Diggerfoot, no offense but I am having difficulty understanding how it is reasonable to assign an advantage when the "odds" are against it.

Also, many thanks to Sensei for his comprehensive and interesting analyses for all of the games. They obviously reflect a lot of time and effort.

 

[Centerstream]

Availability report
St. John's
OUT
#3 Ariel Little
#4 Skye Owen

UConn
OUT
#8 Jana El Alfy
#23 Morgan Cheli
#25 Ice Brady
QUESTIONABLE
#34 Ayanna Patterson

 

[victor64]

I must admit I laughed out loud when I read somebody criticizing your effort. We already know what UConn has. We want a brief summary of what to expect from the other team, which I only recently learned, you do very well. Know matter how hard you try....

 

[ERWUC65]

Let me take this as my first opportunity to thank you and your analyses. You were getting criticized for how you “shortchanged” Shade, and now Arnold. Here is my defense of the OP.

1. While stats fail to reveal the whole picture, to do so would require huge investments in time. @cferraro04 would have to watch the games of multiple opponents multiple times for multiple players. I take your stats based limitations as informative, but with a grain of salt. Anyone who takes exception should provide a deeper, qualitative analysis rather than fault your methodology. And asking you to do more …. my own position is to not ask volunteers to do more when they already are doing more than I am willing to do.

2. While some of your stats allude to defense, they cannot possibly incorporate the contributory effect of our supreme team defense. This depresses the stats of opponents beyond what their individual players achieve. We are a team whose whole is greater than the parts. A stats based analysis cannot reflect that, so even when you might be proven “wrong” about doling out advantages it may be due to the whole and not a comparison of the parts.

3. Conversely, in most games at least one opponent player rises to the occasion. There are times when an opposing player as outperformed UConn’s superstars, but I would never expect you to predict an advantage for them. Rather, based on the usual occurrence that at least one opposing player will shine, it is reasonable to sign an opposing advantage to where it might happen, even though odds are it won’t for any particular match up.

So all this is to offer my support to you for your time and effort on this service, even when I think you might be “wrong” about an advantage, even when the results seem to indicate you are “wrong.” Thank you.

After spending considerable time sifting thru all the rethoric I see you finally ended up stating that you think he is "wrong".

 

[diggerfoot]

After spending considerable time sifting thru all the rethoric I see you finally ended up stating that you think he is "wrong".

Do you not know what putting a word in quotes means?

 

[cferraro04]

Availability report
St. John's
OUT
#3 Ariel Little
#4 Skye Owen

UConn
OUT
#8 Jana El Alfy
#23 Morgan Cheli
#25 Ice Brady
QUESTIONABLE
#34 Ayanna Patterson

I was really hoping that Jana would use this game to build upon her recent improvements. If ST. John's starters do not get into foul trouble I think we can expect them to get a lot of minutes in the 30-plus minute range.

 

[diggerfoot]

[Rather, based on the usual occurrence that at least one opposing player will shine, it is reasonable to sign an opposing advantage to where it might happen, even though odds are it won’t for any particular match up.]

Diggerfoot, no offense but I am having difficulty understanding how it is reasonable to assign an advantage when the "odds" are against it.

Also, many thanks to Sensei for his comprehensive and interesting analyses for all of the games. They obviously reflect a lot of time and effort.

Fair question. One could just give a blanket advantage to all UConn players for most opponents, but that’s not very interesting. And usually there is one player that has a great night, which could prove an analysis “wrong” (please note use of quotes for the word). So why not make a sporting stab at which player(s) that might be? I personally find that more interesting than reading Advantage: UConn for everything.

 

[Centerstream]

I was really hoping that Jana would use this game to build upon her recent improvements. If ST. John's starters do not get into foul trouble I think we can expect them to get a lot of minutes in the 30-plus minute range.

I'm with you.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Live Stats &1:

• 1/7/2026: St. Johns at UConn

&1 Live Stats for yet-to-be-played games are available via this schedule.

• The link is removed for played games.
• The schedule links are useful as to when pre-published links don’t work (as the case was for MI and Utah) as the game is in-progress.

 

[DEpup]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

UConn is rolling along 15 and 0. It is hard to believe that the regular season is already half over. We will be facing The Red Storm in Hartford on Wednesday. St John's is a guard-heavy team. Their biggest players are 6'2", with Kylie Lavelle being the only starter at 6'2". The Johnnies will start 6'2", 6'0", 5'11", 5'10", 5'10"...2 undersized forwards and 3 guards. They average 33.9 rebounds per game. They are a quick team, but they are prone to turnovers, averaging 16.4 per game against what I would term as not impressive opponents. The Johnnies' RPI is 99, and their SOS is 275. Their NET Ranking is 99. When you compare that to UConn's RPI of 1, their SOS of 7, and their NET Ranking of 1, it is clear that these two teams are worlds apart.

St. John's has not faced anything like the oppressive defense that UConn is sure to bring. The Red Storm averages 67.8 points per game while holding their opponents to 59.9 points per game. They are not a very good three-point shooting team, averaging only 5.3 three-pointers per game. To their credit, they have been able to hold their opponents to only 4.9 three-pointers per game. They also average 6.5 steals and 5.2 blocks per game.

UConn may have some difficulty at the beginning of the game adjusting to St. John's speed, but I don't think it will last long before UConn adjusts and begins what is sure to be another lop-sided victory.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Kylie Lavelle, 6'2" Senior Forward - Kylie is undersized for a big and will have a difficult time containing Serah, who seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the UConn offensive sets. I would expect that Serah will expand upon her recent improvements that we have been observing over the past few games. Kylie averages 6.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .9 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Serah is averaging 7.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 steals, and 1.4 blocks. While both players are close in statistical comparisons with Serah having slightly better numbers it must be noted that Serah has faced much better competition and that she has had a very successful career at Wisconsin before coming to CT where she was honored for her defensive play in the Big 10 Conference. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Serah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Sa'Mya Wyatt, 5'11" - Sophomore Forward - Sa'mya is also undersized for the 4 position, and against Sarah Strong, that will probably not help her much in this match-up. Sa'mya averages 10.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .4 steals, and .5 blocks. Serah Strong is leading UConn in just about every category. She averages 18.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 3.5 steals, and 1. 6 blocks. She also averages 1.7 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Brooke Moore, 6'0" - Junior Guard - Brooke is The Johnnies' best offensive player, and she is a great rebounding guard. She averages 14.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .8 steals, 1.4 blocks. Brooke also averages .8 three-pointers per game. Azzi is not a bad offensive player herself (sarcasm meter on 10). She is averaging 17.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Azzi is also averaging 3.3 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Beautiful Waheed, 5'10" - Junior Guard - Good thing we don't give points for most creative name because Beautiful Waheed would win that category hands down. Statisically however, we have an interesting match-up here. Beautiful averages 7.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. She averages 1 three-pointer per game. Ashlynn is averaging 7.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.7 steals, and is averaging 1.2 three-pointers per game. One could conclude, just judging based on game statistics, that these two players are almost interchangeable...with nearly identical statistics. However, given the fact that Ashlynn has done it while facing much stiffer competition, I believe the balance shifts in her direction. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Shaunlana Wagner, 5'10" - Graduate Guard - Shauntana is a pass-first guard and is the engine that moves the Johnnies. Shaulana averages 7.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, .7 steals per game. The questions are how effective she be and what are the chances that she will maintain her season's averages when she has a pest like KK draped over her for the entire game? KK is averaging 6.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. Given that KK is playing with a protective mask to protect her broken nose, I am going to give Shaulana the benefit of the doubt. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

FIRST 3 PLAYERS OFF THE BENCH:

St. John's
Janeya Grant, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 1 rebound, .6 assists, and 1.3 three-pointers per game
Daniela Abies, 6'0" - Junior Forward - 5.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.1 steals per game
Jallah Donald, 5'7" - Senior Guard - 4.7 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and .75 three-pointers per game
UCONN
Blanca Quinones, 6'2" - Freshman Forward - 10 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game
Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals per game
Allie Ziebell, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.6 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

REST OF THE BENCH:

St. John's - 10.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.2 steals, .6 blocks, and 1.1 three-pointers per game
UConn - 11.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, .8 steals, .8 blocks, and .2 three-pointers per game
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Coach Tartamella is in his 14th season at the helm of the Johnnies. He is 239-173 (.581). He is the winningest coach in the Johnnies history, leading the Red Storm to 4 NCAA tournament bids. He has had 9 top 5 finishes in the Big East Conference and won the Big East tournament in 2016.

INTANGIBLES:

UConn will be playing at its home away from home in Hartford. Too much size, talent, and experience for the Johnnies.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 92
ST JOHN's - 41
MOV - 51

KK even? She schooled her match up....

 

[jaundicedeye]

Fair question. One could just give a blanket advantage to all UConn players for most opponents, but that’s not very interesting. And usually there is one player that has a great night, which could prove an analysis “wrong” (please note use of quotes for the word). So why not make a sporting stab at which player(s) that might be? I personally find that more interesting than reading Advantage: UConn for everything.

Sensei's post for each game is called an analysis but for the sake of mixing it up on positional advantages perhaps a little whimsy or what the hell, why not? to make things interesting is a good thing. OK. Why not.

 

[Bone Dog]

I like the player matchups organized as a stat comparison. Yes, the way the team concept works at UConn means that most teams will be overmatched almost everywhere. But a few opposing players will surprise and rise to the challenge, and it's interesting to think about this. Even more importantly, some teams will make progress as teams and close the gap. If/when this happens, it will be good to have noticed which opponents live up to their stats and which don't.

 

[Centerstream]

Our next opponent, Creighton, is playing at Marquette tonight at 8PM on truTV.
Good chance to perform an analysis of what we might face on Sunday?