Game Analysis - Game 14 - UConn vs Providence | The Boneyard
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Game Analysis - Game 14 - UConn vs Providence

cferraro04

cferraro04

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GENERAL COMMENTS:

Last game of the year has arrived! I'm a little late getting this analysis together, a result of navigating the holidays while sick with the flu. Providence is interesting in that the coach has been tinkering with the starting line-up recently, adding Ashley Dinges and moving Aubrey Shields down to the reserves. They are 8 - 6 on the season. Having played low RPI teams except South Carolina, of course. They did lose to their in-state rival, Rhode Island, which has an RPI of 20. The only other low RPI team that they have faced was Howard, RPI 48, which also ended with a loss. They lost to Xavier, RPI 207, and Middle Tennessee, RPI 153. Notable win was the overtime victory against Georgetown, RPI 95. Providence's RPI = 177, their SOS = 176, and their NET Ranking is 157. UConn's RPI = 1 ; SoS = 8 ; Net Ranking = 1.

Providence is an offensively challenged basketball team, only averaging 56.2 points per game while holding its opponents to 60 points per game. This is not going to get the job done on Wednesday. They average 34.4 rebounds per game. They turn the ball over against poor competition 17 times per game. This is a big red flag for me. UConn's defense is going to wreak havoc on Providence and will cause them to turn the ball over 25 times or more. Their defense will not prevent UConn from flirting with 100 points.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Tenesia Brown, 6'2" - Graduate Forward - Tenesia is Providence's 2nd best offensive weapon, and based on Serah's defensive capabilities, that is going to be a problem for Providence. Tenesia averages 10.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, .9 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Serah Williams averages 7.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. I think this is going to be Serah's breakout game. Spurred on by her defense, I think Serah will have her way with Tenesia. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Ashley Dinges, 6'1" - Freshman Forward - This is going to be another huge mismatch on the day. To Ashley's credit, after being the number one player off the bench, she has recently moved into the starting line-up, where she has started the last five games. She is currently averaging 6.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .6 steals, and averages about 1 three-pointer per game. This will not be enough offensive firepower to challenge Sarah. Sarah's quick hands are going to be a problem for Ashley, just as they would have been if her starting predecessor, Aubrey Shields was starting in her place. In addition to having to deal with Sarah Strong defensively, she will be tasked with stopping the unstoppable. Sarah is averaging 18.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.5 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game. Serah also hits 1.4 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Sebou Gueve, 5'9" Graduate Guard - This could be dubbed as the battle of the graduates. However, it will not fare well for Sebou, and unfortunately, it will adversely affect Providence's prospects as well. Sebou is Providence's number one offensive player. She accounts for 25% of Providence's offense. Azzi is a good defender, and I suspect that Sebou is going to have an equally difficult time trying to score against Azzi and trying to stop the best player on the best team in women's college basketball. The question is going to be if Sebou is held below her averages, then where is Providence going to get its offense from? The simple answer is, I look up and down the Providence roster, and I don't see it coming from anywhere, especially given the team defense that Providence is going to face in this matchup. Sebou averages 14.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.9 steals, and 1 block per game. She is not a threat from three-point land; however, Azzi is. This will have the effect of pulling Sebou out to the perimeter to defend Azzi's lethal three-point shooting and will impact Sebou's ability to rebound the basketball. Azzi, on the other hand, is averaging 18.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.3 steals, and .5 blocks while shooting the three-ball at 50.6 percent and making 3.3 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Payton Dunbar, 5'11" - Sophomore Guard - Payton is averaging 10.0 points, 1.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and .7 blocks per game. She is Providence's best three-point shooter, averaging 1.86 three-pointers per game. I would look for Shade to try to run Payton off the three-point line, try to deny her three-point looks, and force her to pass or put the ball on the floor. Shade is currently averaging 7.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Ashlynn is currently averaging 1.2 three-pointers per game. This would be a great game to see Ashlynn come out of her offensive slump and knock down 3 or 4 three-pointers.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Orlagh Gromley, 5'6" - Sophomore Guard - Orlagh averages 7.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 2 steals per game. She shoots the three-ball at .6 per game. KK's defense is sure to force Orlagh to play off rhythm. KK averages 6.9 points, 2.5 rebunds 4.7 assists, and 2.3 steals per game. KK shoots the three-ball at .54 per game. Statistically, these players are almost identical; however, KK's tenacious defense is going to tip the scales.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

TOP 4 BENCH PLAYERS FOR EACH TEAM:

Providence - Princess Moody, 5'8" - Freshman Guard - 2.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists
.....................Aubrey Shields, 6'1" - Sophomore Guard/Forward - 2.2 points, 2.4 rebounds
.....................Sophie Hall, 6'1" - Junior Guard - 2.8 points, 1.3 rebounds
.....................Natani Kaysla - 6'2" - Graduate Forward - 3.5 points, 7.0 rebounds,

UConn - Blanca Quinones - 6'2" - Freshman Forward - 10.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 threes per game
...............Kayliegh Heckel - 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 6.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.4 steals per game
...............Allie Ziebell - 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.0 points, 1.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, ,8 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game
...............Jana El-Alfy - 6'5" - R-Sophomore Center - 4.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and .8 assists per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

REST OF THE BENCH:

Providence - 4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .7 steals, and 1 block per game
UConn - 8.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1 steal, and .3 blocks per game
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

The only advantageous intangible for Providence is that they get to play a home game in front of their fans. Other than that, all other intangibles point to UConn. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UConn - 105
Providence - 44
MOV - 61
 
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Always fun to read. Also, your anti Ash Shade bias continues to show LOL (Kidding).

MOV of 61? Me likey. Hard to predict though because Geno may go deep in to the bench for extended minutes. Against starters, our end of bench typically struggles, but we will see. But a lot of the MOV's on the "guess the score" thread is in the 40+ range...
 
Eric...always great to hear from you. Hope you are having a great holiday season, and I hope you have a joyous New Year. I know my MOV is on the high side, and I know Geno's propensity for playing the bench in blow-outs doesn't support the high MOV. But, with so many prognosticators projecting scores close in proximity, I decided to go contrary in the hopes I could get lucky and snag some big points in the prognosticators' race, lol :).
 
Excellent analysis, sensei! Thanks again. I see that the bench analysis is even more detailed. Well done.

As for Providence, it looks like a very different team from last season. Only Hall and Shields seem to have returned and they weren't even starters then, and aren't now either apparently. Gone are Olson Efosa Sheppard Archibald Farrell Bandoma and Scarlett. I'll miss those guys.

This makes your analysis even more useful, since this is a team of strangers after having been so familiar for years.
 
Yoi otoshi o mukae kudasai


My daughter told me the other phrase, Akemashite omedetō gozaimasu, is only used from New Year's Day on.
 
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Thinking there is a silent, stealth factor operating here: Holiday junk intake. Seriously.
 
Bone Dog said:
Yoi otoshi o mukae kudasai


My daughter told me the other phrase, Akemashite omedetō gozaimasu, is only used from New Year's Day on.
Expand ...
Yes, she is correct.

あなたとご家族にも同じことが言えます。
Anata to gokazoku ni mo onaji koto ga iemasu.
 
Providence Freshman Princess Moody gets my vote for the name of the year.

I cannot imagine the fun her parents and friends have with her when she gets out of sorts. Not to mention coaches. The moody princess.

They are, as Sensei says, offensively challenged. They have a lot of trouble putting the ball in the basket. 39/26/65% for Providence while UConn is at 52/41/73%. They average only 4.5 threes per game. Their high in points for the season is 75, and they have only been at 70 or more three times.

Only one opponent scored as many as 68 against them until South Carolina scored 96. Surprisingly, after turning it over 25 times against Georgetown, Providence only turned it over 11 times against South Carolina. But in that game they were 22 of 63 from the field including 3 of 17 from three. Again, offensively challenged.

The game plan is simple - press like crazy to speed them up, force turnovers and rushed shots, create lots of possessions. It will probably end up looking a lot like the Butler game.
 
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With the UConn bench getting significant minutes, perhaps a second analysis in in order, i.e. UConn's first 5 off the bench against the Providence starters or whoever Providence likely to be on the floor.
 
Thank you for the analysis. I'm really intrigued with the Azzi match up. If Gueve is unable to operate against Azzi's defense then how is Providence going to get even 44 points. They could end up in the mid 30s if they don't get some wing and a pray 3 pointers.

I did watch a lot of their game with SC and they hung in there for most of the first half but UConn plays at a whole different speed then SC.

I'm not sure Geno will let them score over 100. I predict he goes into practice mode at some point to limit the scoring.
 
DEpup said:
Thank you for the analysis. I'm really intrigued with the Azzi match up. If Gueve is unable to operate against Azzi's defense then how is Providence going to get even 44 points. They could end up in the mid 30s if they don't get some wing and a pray 3 pointers.

I did watch a lot of their game with SC and they hung in there for most of the first half but UConn plays at a whole different speed then SC.

I'm not sure Geno will let them score over 100. I predict he goes into practice mode at some point to limit the scoring.
Expand ...
DEpup, you are on to something there. If Providence players Sebou and Payton don't hit their averages...then where is Providence going to get their offense from? That is the big question, and you may be right in pointing out that I may have been generous in predicting 44 points from Providence's offense...they may indeed only score in the mid 30s. I am counting on Geno's generosity and holiday spirit, which means he calls the dogs off early and puts the end of the bench in to get some minutes.
 
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In terms of the matchups, we have a player ON THE BENCH for whom Providence (or the entire Big East, for that matter) has no answer.

1767141240257.png
 
MilfordHusky said:
In terms of the matchups, we have a player ON THE BENCH for whom Providence (or the entire Big East, for that matter) has no answer.

View attachment 115271
Expand ...
Aren't we fortunate? I think Blanca is going to be the "Freshman of the Year" for women's college basketball. I wonder whether it is possible for the same player in the same year to win both the "Freshman of the Year" and the "Sixth Player of the Year" awards?
 
cferraro04 said:
DEpup, you are on to something there. If Providence players Sebou and Payton don't hit their averages...then where is Providence going to get their offense from? That is the big question, and you may be right in pointing out that I may have been generous in predicting 44 points from Providence's offense...they may indeed only score in the mid 30s. I am counting on Geno's generosity and holiday spirit, which means he calls the dogs off early and puts the end of the bench in to get some minutes.
Expand ...
It will probably end up being some wing and a pray 3 pointers that put them over 40. Somehow teams that play UConn just throw them up out of desperation and they end up getting 3 or 4 over their average which gets them into the 40s or low 50s.
 
Providence's only hope is that no player gets hurt during the game.Not being critical, just being factual. GO HUSKIES!!!!!
 
Next 12 said:
Providence's only hope is that no player gets hurt during the game.Not being critical, just being factual. GO HUSKIES!!!!!
Expand ...
Your post seems to be a bit cryptic...I am not sure what you mean...could you clarify?
 
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cferraro04 said:
Aren't we fortunate? I think Blanca is going to be the "Freshman of the Year" for women's college basketball. I wonder whether it is possible for the same player in the same year to win both the "Freshman of the Year" and the "Sixth Player of the Year" awards?
Expand ...
Is there a “Sixth Player of the Year” award?
 
I am surprised that you annoint Azzi as the best player on the best team. At best that is a mild stretch as good as Azzi is. The rest of women's college basketball has another Huskie as the leading candidate for NPOY which would automatically mean that this other player would likely also be the best on the UCONN team, no?
 
GAME ANALYSIS UPDATE:

Given the fact that KK will not be available for today's game. I have updated the PLAYER MATCHUP portion of the game analysis. I will be substituting Kayleigh Heckel in at point guard because I believe she is the logical choice for Geno. Kelis Fisher is certainly a possibility, but I think it is too soon to throw her into the starting line-up. I have highlighted the changes in Red below.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Last game of the year has arrived! I'm a little late getting this analysis together, a result of navigating the holidays while sick with the flu. Providence is interesting in that the coach has been tinkering with the starting line-up recently, adding Ashley Dinges and moving Aubrey Shields down to the reserves. They are 8 - 6 on the season. Having played low RPI teams except South Carolina, of course. They did lose to their in-state rival, Rhode Island, which has an RPI of 20. The only other low RPI team that they have faced was Howard, RPI 48, which also ended with a loss. They lost to Xavier, RPI 207, and Middle Tennessee, RPI 153. Notable win was the overtime victory against Georgetown, RPI 95. Providence's RPI = 177, their SOS = 176, and their NET Ranking is 157. UConn's RPI = 1 ; SoS = 8 ; Net Ranking = 1.

Providence is an offensively challenged basketball team, only averaging 56.2 points per game while holding its opponents to 60 points per game. This is not going to get the job done on Wednesday. They average 34.4 rebounds per game. They turn the ball over against poor competition 17 times per game. This is a big red flag for me. UConn's defense is going to wreak havoc on Providence and will cause them to turn the ball over 25 times or more. Their defense will not prevent UConn from flirting with 100 points.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Tenesia Brown, 6'2" - Graduate Forward - Tenesia is Providence's 2nd best offensive weapon, and based on Serah's defensive capabilities, that is going to be a problem for Providence. Tenesia averages 10.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, .9 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Serah Williams averages 7.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. I think this is going to be Serah's breakout game. Spurred on by her defense, I think Serah will have her way with Tenesia. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Ashley Dinges, 6'1" - Freshman Forward - This is going to be another huge mismatch on the day. To Ashley's credit, after being the number one player off the bench, she has recently moved into the starting line-up, where she has started the last five games. She is currently averaging 6.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .6 steals, and averages about 1 three-pointer per game. This will not be enough offensive firepower to challenge Sarah. Sarah's quick hands are going to be a problem for Ashley, just as they would have been if her starting predecessor, Aubrey Shields was starting in her place. In addition to having to deal with Sarah Strong defensively, she will be tasked with stopping the unstoppable. Sarah is averaging 18.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.5 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game. Serah also hits 1.4 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Sebou Gueve, 5'9" Graduate Guard - This could be dubbed as the battle of the graduates. However, it will not fare well for Sebou, and unfortunately, it will adversely affect Providence's prospects as well. Sebou is Providence's number one offensive player. She accounts for 25% of Providence's offense. Azzi is a good defender, and I suspect that Sebou is going to have an equally difficult time trying to score against Azzi and trying to stop the best player on the best team in women's college basketball. The question is going to be if Sebou is held below her averages, then where is Providence going to get its offense from? The simple answer is, I look up and down the Providence roster, and I don't see it coming from anywhere, especially given the team defense that Providence is going to face in this matchup. Sebou averages 14.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.9 steals, and 1 block per game. She is not a threat from three-point land; however, Azzi is. This will have the effect of pulling Sebou out to the perimeter to defend Azzi's lethal three-point shooting and will impact Sebou's ability to rebound the basketball. Azzi, on the other hand, is averaging 18.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.3 steals, and .5 blocks while shooting the three-ball at 50.6 percent and making 3.3 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Payton Dunbar, 5'11" - Sophomore Guard - Payton is averaging 10.0 points, 1.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and .7 blocks per game. She is Providence's best three-point shooter, averaging 1.86 three-pointers per game. I would look for Shade to try to run Payton off the three-point line, try to deny her three-point looks, and force her to pass or put the ball on the floor. Shade is currently averaging 7.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Ashlynn is currently averaging 1.2 three-pointers per game. This would be a great game to see Ashlynn come out of her offensive slump and knock down 3 or 4 three-pointers.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kayleigh Heckle, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard vs Orlagh Gromley, 5'6" - Sophomore Guard - Orlagh averages 7.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 2 steals per game. She shoots the three-ball at .6 per game. KK's defense is sure to force Orlagh to play off rhythm. KK averages 6.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Kayleigh shoots the three-ball at .4 per game. Statistically, Orlagh's numbers are slightly better in all categories; however, Kayleigh is still somewhat of an unknown quantity, given that she has not played with the starting five for extended periods and will be receiving more minutes than usual as a starter. Finally, we do not know if Geno will have Kelis and Kayleigh split time at the point guard position. Therefore, based on a lack of data points...
ADVANTAGE - PROVIDENCE

TOP 4 BENCH PLAYERS FOR EACH TEAM:

Providence - Princess Moody, 5'8" - Freshman Guard - 2.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists
.....................Aubrey Shields, 6'1" - Sophomore Guard/Forward - 2.2 points, 2.4 rebounds
.....................Sophie Hall, 6'1" - Junior Guard - 2.8 points, 1.3 rebounds
.....................Natani Kaysla - 6'2" - Graduate Forward - 3.5 points, 7.0 rebounds,

UConn - Blanca Quinones - 6'2" - Freshman Forward - 10.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 threes per game
...............Kelis Fisher - 5'9" - Freshman Guard - 3.5 points, 1.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, and .3 steals.
...............Allie Ziebell - 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.0 points, 1.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, ,8 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game
...............Jana El-Alfy - 6'5" - R-Sophomore Center - 4.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and .8 assists per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

REST OF THE BENCH:

Providence - 4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .7 steals, and 1 block per game
UConn - 1.0 point. Gandy Malou-Mamel is the only player left on the bench as UConn will suit 10 players for this game. They will be without the services of KK Arnold, Ayanna Patterson, Caroline Ducharme, Morgan Cheli, and Ice Brady.
ADVANTAGE - PROVIDENCE

COACHING:

ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

The only advantageous intangible for Providence is that they get to play a home game in front of their fans. Other than that, all other intangibles point to UConn. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UConn - 105
Providence - 44
MOV - 61
 
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Anyone know if this will be Kayleigh's first collegiate start, assuming she is the starter? If so, might be some jitters???
 
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