Game Analysis - Game 11 - UConn vs Marquette | The Boneyard
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Game Analysis - Game 11 - UConn vs Marquette

cferraro04

cferraro04

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GENERAL COMMENTS:

I hope everyone got it out of their system regarding my alleged anti-Shade bias. Good thing I got thick skin, or I would be a little gun-shy after last week's analysis. Hey, I'm just kidding with y'all...I get it, this form of analysis is somewhat less than ideal, but it does provide another look at each game prior to the game being played, and it provides an additional forum for folks to discuss the possible match-ups in the upcoming game. With that said, let's dive into it. Marquette is not a top-tier team; quite the contrary. Marquette is currently 7-3. They have an RPI of 88 and a SoS of 139. UConn is currently ranked at 2 in RPI and 11 in SoS. Marquette has a really bad loss on their record, where it lost to Minnesota 90 to 47. We have one common foe, DePaul, so far this season. They beat DePaul 85 to 64 (a 21-point win). UConn beat DePaul 102-35 (a 67-point win).

Marquette will go with a 4-guard line-up. Marquette has started the same 5 all season long: Skylar Forbes, 6'3", Junior Forward; Halle Vice, 6'1", Junior Guard; Lee Voelker, 6'1", Graduate Guard; Olivia Porter, 5'8", Senior Guard; Jaidynn Mason, 5'6", Senior Guard. They will bring Jordan Moulemans, a 6'0" Junior Guard who will play significant minutes. I don't see that Marquette has enough firepower to stay with the Huskies.

However, they do have some players who can knock down the three-pointers, namely Skylar Forbes, who shoots 2.3 threes per game, Lee Volker, who hits on 1.9 three-pointers per game, and Jordan Moulemans, who shoots threes at 1.7 per game. As a team, they average 8.9 threes per game. However, UConn is averaging 9.3 three-pointers per game and Azzi Fudd is shooting a sizzling .531 from three. Do you know who is shooting threes at an even better clip albeit she doesn't shoot as many per game as Azzi does? Why, it is none other than Blanca who is shooting threes at a .588 clip. Marquette averages 73.5 points per game while UConn averages 89.8 points per game.

Marquette is not a good rebounding team, only averaging 34.6 rebounds per game. Look for UConn to get a lot of 2nd chance points in the paint. UConn will cause Marquette to cough up the basketball, as they average 23.6 turnovers and 14.9 steals per game.

PLAYER MATCHUPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Skylar Forbes, 6'3" - Junior Forward - Skylar is their best offensive weapon; for this reason, I don't expect that Serah will be defending her by herself. She will get weak-side help under the basket, and she will get help on the perimeter, as Skylar likes to shoot threes. Skylar averages 15.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game. She also hits 2.3 three-pointers per game. Serah averages 7.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. I believe Geno will split time at this position with Blanca, and he will be bringing Blanca in for close to 20 minutes this game. If I lump Blanca's production in with the production off the bench, and I decide the advantage based on a head-to-head match-up for the 5 position, and despite the team defense, it is still... ADVANTAGE - MARGQUETTE

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Halle Vice, 6'1" - Junior Guard - Halle is Marquette's second-best scoring option. She plays like a forward, so I do not know why she is designated as a Guard. She averages 13.2 points per game, 8.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks, and hits .7 threes per game. Sarah is stuffing the stat sheets. She is averaging 17.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 3.4 steals, 2.0 blocks, and shoots the three-ball at 1.1 per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Lee Voelker, 6'1" Graduate Guard - This match-up features a pair of graduate students. Lee is a similar player to Azzi, but she is a little taller and not as effective offensively and defensively as Azzi. Lee averages 11.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2 three-pointers per game. Azzi is averaging 18.1 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.1 steals, and 3.4 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Olivia Porter, 5'8" - Senior Guard - Olivia averages 6.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and hits .8 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 8.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.6 steals, and hits 1.5 three-pointers per game. For those of you who think that I have an anti-Shade bias, suffice it to know that on paper, without taking into account Ashlynn's defense is the stronger player. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnorld, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Jaidynn Mason, 5'6" - Senior Guard - Well, will you look at that! KK has a height advantage. Jaidynn averages 9.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.8 steals, and hits .8 three-pointers per game. KK is currently averaging 7.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.6 steals per game. On paper, we have two players who appear somewhat equal; however, Jaidynn has not faced a defender like KK, nor has she faced a team defense like she will see from the Huskies on Wednesday evening.
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

Marquette will bring 17.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 2.5 three-pointers off the bench. UConn will bring 35.2 points, 15.8 rebounds, and 3 threes off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Too much experience, championship pedigree, and talent on the UConn bench. They will get the job done. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

This game will be played in Hartford. Ashlynn and Blanca are beginning to round into shape. Serah Williams should have an easy day in the paint. I think everyone plays in this game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN- 102
MARQUETTE - 51
MOV - 51
 
Thanks again, sensei. Excellent analysis.

I share @YKCornelius ’s opinion of Skylar Forbes. She would get playing time on any P4 team. Last season, she outplayed Ice and Jana just on the strength of her mobility and outside shooting. Sarah is able to defend her effectively, I think. But Skylar will get some points and hit some 3s in any event. And I don’t think Geno wants to wear out Sarah unnecessarily, especially when Serah and Blanca are available.

I suspect you’re right about the rebounding battle — that is not really Marquette’s strength. Also, they don’t get a lot of assists, so passing is also not a strength. What they do have is pretty good team speed, in Skylar and Vice but especially Mason who is a little speedster. And though they start four guards, as you point out, they are big guards. This is where their rebounding comes from.

I’m expecting a >40 point blowout.
 
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Good assessment but I always have an issue comparing Serah since she usually only plays about half the game. If you factor in Blanca and others, may be a different result.
 
cferraro04 said:
Do you think that Serah Williams will be matched up with Skylar, or do you think that it falls to Sarah Strong? I struggled with that one.
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Sensei, for purposes of analyzing match-ups I think it's probably a coin-flip - I probably would stay with Serah like you did. Serah will certainly be jumping center with Skylar at the tip-off. After that, I'm pretty confident Skylar will be all over the place.

I expect Marquette to run a bunch of high ball screens utilizing Skylar, so a lot of the coverage up top will depend on how UConn prepares to switch.

I imagine after watching film, Sarah, Serah and Blanca are salivating about the possibility of guarding Skylar, and jockeying for the assignment to do so.
 
YKCornelius said:
Sensei, for purposes of analyzing match-ups I think it's probably a coin-flip - I probably would stay with Serah like you did. Serah will certainly be jumping center with Skylar at the tip-off. After that, I'm pretty confident Skylar will be all over the place.

I expect Marquette to run a bunch of high ball screens utilizing Skylar, so a lot of the coverage up top will depend on how UConn prepares to switch.

I imagine after watching film, Sarah, Serah and Blanca are salivating about the possibility of guarding Skylar, and jockeying for the assignment to do so.
Expand ...
You never know. It might just be that Azzi, KK, Ash et al are also lining up for that challenge...
 
It may be impossible to quantify this, but the comparison of point guards should not be limited to points scored, rebounds, assists, etc. The pg is the field general. That matters at least as much as the countable items.
 
Sifaka said:
It may be impossible to quantify this, but the comparison of point guards should not be limited to points scored, rebounds, assists, etc. The pg is the field general. That matters at least as much as the countable items.
Expand ...
.In the context of the style of analysis presented here, the issue of what impact the point guard or specific players have on the game might be effectively compared in the Intangible portion of the study. I often wonder what to include in that section.
 
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Gosh, I really hope the game is closer than a 51 point blowout. Marquette was picked 2nd in the preseason coaches poll. Massey has Creighton with 4 losses, Marquette and Villanova with 5 each and good ole Seton Hall with 6. The sad state of affairs is we desperately need one of these teams to show something/anything just to give our league some respectability.

I am hoping for only a 30 point win….
 
I am pretty sure that in the two games against Marquette last season, Sarah didn't guard Forbes at the start of the game. Of course we had different starters...in the first game Jana started and in the 2nd game, Aubrey started as it was Senior Day. So my point is that Serah will most likely start the game guarding her, not Sarah. This might be a good chance to sub in Jana for Serah and see how she does as long as Forbes isn't chucking up 3s. If Blanca comes in for Serah, I hope she can control her fouls.
 
Sifaka said:
It may be impossible to quantify this, but the comparison of point guards should not be limited to points scored, rebounds, assists, etc. The pg is the field general. That matters at least as much as the countable items.
Expand ...
Sifaka, I don't disagree that the point guard is the field general. But unless one is very knowledgable about the opposing team (in the same manner most of us fancy ourselves to be regarding the Huskies), that aspect of the comparison becomes futile.

But your comment gives birth to an interesting idea:

We know that the coaching staff rotates amongst themselves on who develops and presents the scout for each opponent. (FWIW, CD has it for the Marquette game.) Perhaps some of the Boneyarders can volunteer their WBB intellect, draw straws, and produce a similar analysis of the not-so-apparent aspects of each of UConn's opponents in order to compliment cferraro04's game analysis.

That would, at least, take the target off of Sensei's back each game.....
 
cferraro04 said:
GENERAL COMMENTS:

I hope everyone got it out of their system regarding my alleged anti-Shade bias. Good thing I got thick skin, or I would be a little gun-shy after last week's analysis. Hey, I'm just kidding with y'all...I get it, this form of analysis is somewhat less than ideal, but it does provide another look at each game prior to the game being played, and it provides an additional forum for folks to discuss the possible match-ups in the upcoming game. With that said, let's dive into it. Marquette is not a top-tier team; quite the contrary. Marquette is currently 7-3. They have an RPI of 88 and a SoS of 139. UConn is currently ranked at 2 in RPI and 11 in SoS. Marquette has a really bad loss on their record, where it lost to Minnesota 90 to 47. We have one common foe, DePaul, so far this season. They beat DePaul 85 to 64 (a 21-point win). UConn beat DePaul 102-35 (a 67-point win).

Marquette will go with a 4-guard line-up. Marquette has started the same 5 all season long: Skylar Forbes, 6'3", Junior Forward; Halle Vice, 6'1", Junior Guard; Lee Voelker, 6'1", Graduate Guard; Olivia Porter, 5'8", Senior Guard; Jaidynn Mason, 5'6", Senior Guard. They will bring Jordan Moulemans, a 6'0" Junior Guard who will play significant minutes. I don't see that Marquette has enough firepower to stay with the Huskies.

However, they do have some players who can knock down the three-pointers, namely Skylar Forbes, who shoots 2.3 threes per game, Lee Volker, who hits on 1.9 three-pointers per game, and Jordan Moulemans, who shoots threes at 1.7 per game. As a team, they average 8.9 threes per game. However, UConn is averaging 9.3 three-pointers per game and Azzi Fudd is shooting a sizzling .531 from three. Do you know who is shooting threes at an even better clip albeit she doesn't shoot as many per game as Azzi does? Why, it is none other than Blanca who is shooting threes at a .588 clip. Marquette averages 73.5 points per game while UConn averages 89.8 points per game.

Marquette is not a good rebounding team, only averaging 34.6 rebounds per game. Look for UConn to get a lot of 2nd chance points in the paint. UConn will cause Marquette to cough up the basketball, as they average 23.6 turnovers and 14.9 steals per game.

PLAYER MATCHUPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Skylar Forbes, 6'3" - Junior Forward - Skylar is their best offensive weapon; for this reason, I don't expect that Serah will be defending her by herself. She will get weak-side help under the basket, and she will get help on the perimeter, as Skylar likes to shoot threes. Skylar averages 15.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game. She also hits 2.3 three-pointers per game. Serah averages 7.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. I believe Geno will split time at this position with Blanca, and he will be bringing Blanca in for close to 20 minutes this game. If I lump Blanca's production in with the production off the bench, and I decide the advantage based on a head-to-head match-up for the 5 position, and despite the team defense, it is still... ADVANTAGE - MARGQUETTE

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Halle Vice, 6'1" - Junior Guard - Halle is Marquette's second-best scoring option. She plays like a forward, so I do not know why she is designated as a Guard. She averages 13.2 points per game, 8.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks, and hits .7 threes per game. Sarah is stuffing the stat sheets. She is averaging 17.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 3.4 steals, 2.0 blocks, and shoots the three-ball at 1.1 per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Lee Voelker, 6'1" Graduate Guard - This match-up features a pair of graduate students. Lee is a similar player to Azzi, but she is a little taller and not as effective offensively and defensively as Azzi. Lee averages 11.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2 three-pointers per game. Azzi is averaging 18.1 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.1 steals, and 3.4 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Olivia Porter, 5'8" - Senior Guard - Olivia averages 6.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and hits .8 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 8.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.6 steals, and hits 1.5 three-pointers per game. For those of you who think that I have an anti-Shade bias, suffice it to know that on paper, without taking into account Ashlynn's defense is the stronger player. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnorld, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Jaidynn Mason, 5'6" - Senior Guard - Well, will you look at that! KK has a height advantage. Jaidynn averages 9.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.8 steals, and hits .8 three-pointers per game. KK is currently averaging 7.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.6 steals per game. On paper, we have two players who appear somewhat equal; however, Jaidynn has not faced a defender like KK, nor has she faced a team defense like she will see from the Huskies on Wednesday evening.
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

Marquette will bring 17.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 2.5 three-pointers off the bench. UConn will bring 35.2 points, 15.8 rebounds, and 3 threes off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Too much experience, championship pedigree, and talent on the UConn bench. They will get the job done. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

This game will be played in Hartford. Ashlynn and Blanca are beginning to round into shape. Serah Williams should have an easy day in the paint. I think everyone plays in this game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN- 102
MARQUETTE - 51
MOV - 51
Expand ...
I appreciate your analyses every game. I am curious how you would match the players after Geno’s first substitution, which usually places Kaleigh and Blanca in, with Serah and KK or more infrequently Ash out, since I think the team has generally looked most fluid with the 2nd lineup in. Also I would imagine Sarah Strong would guard Forbes if it was a 1 v 1 situation.
 
I respect what you're doing with this analysis. Quite an endeavor!
What I personally would like with this thread is a focus on aspects of the matchup rather than individual matchups. Things like offensive rebounding, rebounding, outside shooting, pressure defense, size inside, efficiency, passing, etc.
Keep up the good work
 
darkstar1 said:
I appreciate your analyses every game. I am curious how you would match the players after Geno’s first substitution, which usually places Kaleigh and Blanca in, with Serah and KK or more infrequently Ash out, since I think the team has generally looked most fluid with the 2nd lineup in. Also I would imagine Sarah Strong would guard Forbes if it was a 1 v 1 situation.
Expand ...
After Geno brings in Blanca and Kaleigh (although I wouldn't be surprised if he brought in Jana). I would guess that either Jana or Blanca will get the Forbes assignment. And if Ashlynn goes to the bench, then Kaliegh will get the Olivia Porter assignment. If KK goes to the bench, then Kaliegh would get the Jaidynn Mason assignment. In all these cases where we are talking about substitutions, our players are going to have to watch their fouls because both Forbes and Mason know how to draw fouls. Moving Sarah Strong over to defend against Forbes and putting Blanca on Vice is not a bad strategy either.
 
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In general, this Marquette team has UNDER PERFORMED thus far this year. Considering their whole lineup returned, they have few BAD LOSSES. Losing to Minn isn’t so bad BUT they lost 90-47. A 43 point blowout. They also lost to Gonzaga at home. The other loss is to iSU so that was expected. Massey has Marquette with 5 losses in the Big East which isn’t a great record….
 
As I look at the shot selection of the top three Marquette scorers through their first ten games, I find myself thinking that the scout on Marquette is not complicated.

Lee Voelker does not like to go inside, but prefers to shoot behind the arc or mid-range jumpers from both sides and straight on. Halle Vice is practically the mirror opposite - although she is not adverse to launching a three, the large majority of her scoring comes from inside the circle. The wildcard is Skylar Forbes who launches shots from everywhere: inside the arc, outside the arc, and near the rim. Skyler doesn't have a preferred side - appears to be equally effective everywhere.

From my perspective, the game within the game will be whether UConn makes a concerted effort to shutdown Skyler Forbes, which I hope they try to do.
 
I know this is the BY but I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many pregame theories and matchup analyses for a 35-40 point blowout. Has to be a record. I just hope Auriemma is able to sleep the night before this one.
 
ANY team in the Big East that plays against Uconn will lose with most of the games by 40 or more points. there is no debate about this player or that player on the other teams that count in the final score. I believe with all my heart that there is not a team in the BE that can beat Uconn. In my opinion any discussion is pointless and immaterial. Uconn will go undefeated in conference. These games are just warm-ups til the NC. Then all the speculations will have some meaning. Til then I will watch Uconn on it's march to perfection and greatly appreciate Uconn's Brilliant play. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!
 
For what it’s worth, Marquette did hang tough against an improved Iowa State team. UConn’s ferocious D, offensive mismatches, and coaching advantage could make the game a laugher early but I believe Marquette will find a way to keep the mov under 50.
 
Marquette will out score us in the 4th quarter. And the final score will flatter them. That’s my guess.

I like that you put Forbes with the advantage. Even if Serah was all big 10; Forbes has been the better player so far this season as Serah has tried to navigate her way and learn the uconn system.
 
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FanSince17 said:
What I personally would like with this thread is a focus on aspects of the matchup rather than individual matchups. Things like offensive rebounding, rebounding, outside shooting, pressure defense, size inside, efficiency, passing, etc.
Expand ...
That’s the stuff you’re supposed to contribute to the thread. You can’t expect sensei to do everything.
 
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