Game 5 - NCAA Tournament - UConn vs UCLA

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Here we are in our 24th final four. When I think of the achievement, it almost seems absurd. Considering how difficult it is to navigate through the NCAA tournament to the final four and to have done it 24 times in Geno's and Chris's tenure as coaches for UConn, it is just unfathomable. No matter how UConn makes out in the semifinals against UCLA, we as fans, have much to be proud of regarding this current team. We have weathered some pretty crappy stretches where we have had to play with a depleted team due to injuries. But now we have a full complement of players. This allows our coaching staff to have a few luxuries that, over the past few years, they have not had heretofore.

I am very happy that the Huskies are going to the final four, as we get to see Paige Bueckers play at least one more game, hopefully two. Paige has had a great career at UConn, and she has been a joy to watch. However, it is about to get very real as now we have to face a team with a bonified Center in 6'7" Lauren Betts. To make matters worse, UCLA will have the twin towers with Lauren at 6'7" and Angela Dugalic at 6'4". UConn's Achilles heel has been at the number 5 position. Our post players, Jana El-Alfy and Ice Brad, have not been able to impress at that position this season. Jana and Brady combined average 8.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 1 block. They will not be able to contain Lauren in a heads-up matchup. UConn will have to depend on team defense to deny Lauren the ball; they will need to be smart on how to bring the double team, or Lauren will simply pass out to UCLA's capable three-point shooters. UConn needs to wait until Lauren makes her move, then quickly bring the double team and try to get a block from the backside or a strip. If UConn can keep Lauren at her averages and not allow her to go off for 35-40 points, they will have a good chance of getting to the final game. UConn must not foul and put UCLA on the line. UCLA makes 12 free throws per game. UCLA is somewhat turnover-prone, as they commit 17 turnovers per game.


PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" Redshirt Freshman - Center vs Lauren Betts, 6'7" Junior - Center - Lauren can be a handful in the post. She averaged 20 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1 steal, and 3 blocks per game. Jana averaged 5.1 points, 5.1 assists, 1 assist, .5 steals, and .6 blocks. I think the strategy here is to try and limit Lauren's touches, to keep her at or below her averages, to try to get some fouls called on her, and hopefully to get some offensive production out of Jana, Ice, and Aubrey. ADVANTAGE - UCLA

Sarah Strong, 6'2" Freshman - Forward vs Angela Dugalic, 6'4" Graduate - Forward - Angela averages 7.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.4 steals, .8 blocks, and 1 three-pointer per game. While Sarah will be giving up 2 inches and 4 years of experience to Angela, I do not think that those things will adversely affect our calm and collective, stoic-like, stat-stuffing Freshman warrior. Sarah averaged 16.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 1.4 three-pointers per game. I think Geno will build off the USC strategy and go to Sarah early, as this will take some of the pressure off our guards. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" Redshirt Senior - Guard vs Kiki Rice, 5'11" Junior - Guard - Kiki averages 12.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.5 steals, .4 blocks, and 1 three pointer per game. Paige has been nothing short of spectacular in this tournament so far. Paige has had three 30-plus consecutive games with one 40-pointer. She has been aggressively looking for her shot and playing fantastic defense. Paige averages 20.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.1 steals, .8 blocks, and 2 three-pointers per game. I expect that Paige will put the team on her back if she has to, especially since a loss means the end of her collegiate career.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" Graduate - Guard vs Gabriela Jacquez, 6'0" Junior - Guard - Gabriela is a big guard who averages 9.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, .6 blocks, and 1 three-pointer per game. Hopefully, Azzi won't make us wait until the fourth quarter for her to score. We know that she can be an offensive nightmare if she is hitting her threes, but she has been inconsistent so far this season. Azzi averages 13.1 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.34 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" Graduate - Guard vs Londynn Jones, 5'4" Junior - Guard - Londynn averages 8.7 points, 1.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1 steal, and 2 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn is having a great post-season. Kaitlyn averages 7.1 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and .76 three-pointers per game. While Londynn averages more points and shoots the three-point shot better than Kaitlyn, and Kaitlyn is a better playmaker and rebounder than Londynn, I see this matchup as being: ADVANTAGE - EVEN

BENCH:

In the USC game, UConn's bench only accounted for 2 points. UConn bench players average 27.8 points and 15.1 rebounds per game. UCLA bench players average 25.3 points and 16.4 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

INTANGIBLES:

No home-court advantage for either team. UCLA is strong in the post, and UConn has the better guard play. UConn's defense can be a game-changer. UConn players think they are on a mission to get Paige Bueckers a national championship. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

UCLA's coach Cori Close has been named the 2025 Werner Ladder's Naismith Women's College Coach of the Year. However, Geno has been coach of the year numerous times, and he has Chris Daley, and they don't. Overall, the UConn coaching staff is made for this time of the year.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 84
UCLA - 77
MOV - 7

 

[BostonCanuck]

Agree with everything except for the intangibles category. UConn's brutal travel schedule and the significantly shorter time between games gives UCLA a net advantage in this category. Still calling it for UConn though by four to six points.

 

[Topdawg]

Transition offense will be crucial. If we make our plays before Betts runs the length of the court, we will have an advantage.

The role of our forwards is to tire Betts by making her work hard to get her points. Slow her down without fouling!

 

[uconnfan68]

Slightly disagree on whether we have a full complement of players. Missing 2 outright, and 2 questionables. I’d feel much better with all 4 healthy and able.

 

[VaConnFan11]

Transition offense will be crucial. If we make our plays before Betts runs the length of the court, we will have an advantage.

The role of our forwards is to tire Betts by making her work hard to get her points. Slow her down without fouling!

Fouling her is not bad strategy as long as its not an "and one" situation. She is not a good FT shooter (61%).

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei!!!

I don't know how to figure most of these advantages and I'm as nervous as a cat. It's reassuring to read your take on things.

Will Paige take over the game, or will UCLA's defense be able to prevent her? Will Sarah and Azzi and Kaitlyn and Ash be able score enough on their own to force UCLA to back off Paige? Will Aubrey be up to giving Geno a few dazzling minutes?

I can hardly wait to see how it will all play out.

 

[Cornell Lt]

In my mind one of the biggest question marks is how will the officials call the play down low in the paint. If Betts is allowed to travel (shuffle her feet) as she does frequently then UConn may be in trouble. UConn can not stop her one on one in the half court. I'm looking for Sarah and whoever else Betts is guarding to beat her down the court consistently and hopefully get her tired and in foul trouble.

 

[Henry]

Dugalic seems to be the least likely to score, so does Sarah cheat off her to double Betts when Jana or Ice is playing center? I'm not sure we can play Betts 1v1.

 

[Kat]

Jana vs Betts is going to be more like Jana & Sarah vs Betts, or Sarah & Ice vs Betts, maybe Sarah and Aubrey vs Betts. Double-teaming her is something UCLA is used to, they know how to create opportunities around it, but I think that Geno will mix up the coverage quite a bit.

 

[Next 12]

Just another obstacle in our way to S Carolina and the NC .UCLA has ONE advantage over Uconn and that is BETTS.Neutralize her in any manner and Uconn, overall is the better team with 3 high level scorers and a defense that is second to none. Uconn's bench has scoring and defense that is first team. My assessment is a tight game in the first half and then Uconn opens up the game the way they always do GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!!

 

[ctfjr]

Jana needs to really step up here. Betts is the real deal. We won't be able to completely shut her down but at least we have to control her inside game.
That said because of the inevitable doubles down low there has to be good D on their best 3pt shooters, who ever shows up hot on Friday from long range. I don't see a 'real' 3pt shooter threat but someone could get hot, especially if left alone.

 

[Skeets]

What happens all too often is some kid comes out of the woodwork and has a career day torching UConn. Any kid who makes 2 or 3 buckets has to be stopped immediately. Can't let that go on for the whole game. Got to stop the hot hand, whoever she might be.

 

[fireford]

UCLA relishing the underdog role:

No. 1 UCLA finds motivation as Final 4 underdog

UCLA is an underdog against UConn in the Final Four, but the No. 1 Bruins say they are used to being overlooked this season.

www.espn.com

 

[Rowdy831]

If UConn gives a lot of help on Betts then they could get beat. Betts alone won't beat UConn but if you allow one of the role players to score 14-15 points then it is problematic. Jana is stronger than Betts, weighs more than Betts so she can lean on her all game and almost as tall. Make Betts catch the ball in front of you and don't let her push you down under the basket.

UConn has plenty of speed and plenty of offense and will win this game unless they simply can't shoot the ball Friday night. I think Paige will offset anything Betts can do so if our others are better than their others then UConn wins.

 

[browns]

I think UCLA has a better bench with the 6'4" Barker and the 6'3" Gardiner

 

[Urshurak]

Honestly, this one is a toss up with UConn having the edge.

If lid on basket and another slow start, could be problematic. Post has been a question mark all year. Mostly non-existent. We need a breakout game by Azzi. That happens, UConn could win comfortably. Someone not named Paige or Sarah has got to have a big game for UConn to win this one.

 

[YKCornelius]

Looking at UCLA replays since the end of January (dang that's a lot of video!) I think the keys to victory for UConn on the defensive side, I believe, lies apart from Betts. I believe simply having Jana and Ice body up on her for the entire game will be good enough and ultimately wear Betts down. Don't worry about her scoring once she gets the ball down low - and do not double team her - but rather focus on covering the three point shooters on the arc - specifically Gardiner and Jones. In fact, I would emphasize not letting Gardiner have anything easy from the arc.

Here's the rationale: UCLA has played 16 games since the start of February, going 14-2 including all three games against USC who gave the Bruins their only two losses of the season. The formula for 15 of those 16 games was the same: get the ball into Betts and when the defense collapses, Betts dishes it out to the perimeter for a three point shot. Pretty simple and very effective. (The formula for the other game - when Betts did not play - was different. More conventional. See below.)

Often when the ball went out to London Jones and Timea Gardiner they either launched a shot from the arc or sent the ball back into Betts for a "rinse and repeat". Again, very simple and very effective.

Gardiner, despite being 6-3, rarely shot the ball inside the arc during the game. To be exact, over the final 16 games, she shot the ball inside the arc only 17 times - and on 8 occasions she didn't attempt any two-point field goals during the game. Furthermore, if you set aside the game Betts was on the bench and the Bruins offense was more conventional which resulted in Gardiner shooting inside the arc an unusual FOUR times, then it is safe to say Gardiner averaged less than one inside-the-arc FG attempt per game. The icing on the cake is of the 13 times she shot inside the arc, she only made five (38.5%). Contrast those numbers against her three-point shooting over the same final 16 games, where Gardiner shot 30 for 72 (41.6%).

For Jones over the same 16 games, the numbers are a little less diametrical but point to similar conclusions, as two out of three shots from her are outside the arc as well. Specifically, Jones launched 93 three pointers (making 33 for a 35.5 percentage) and only 46 two point field goals (making 22 for a 47.8%).

Conclusion: Following Geno's contention over the years that the teams will continue to do what got them to the Final Four, I expect UCLA to continue the inside-outside game they have almost exclusively used since the start of February. Hence, I will be curious to see if the Huskies' defensive game plan focuses on neutralizing the Bruins' inside-outside style, and if so, will they focus on the three-point shooters. I think there is much merit in doing so.

 

[AnonChoice]

Agree with everything except for the intangibles category. UConn's brutal travel schedule and the significantly shorter time between games gives UCLA a net advantage in this category. Still calling it for UConn though by four to six points.

Totally unjust disparity in travel conditions for the teams.... not remotely fair, and I don't know how the NCAA gets away with that. Nobody in the powers-that-be saw the unfairness there??? Location for the Spokane regional was just nuts, given that it was literally as far away as possible from the FF site -- which was not true, of course, for the Birmingham regionals.

 

[AnonChoice]

What happens all too often is some kid comes out of the woodwork and has a career day torching UConn. Any kid who makes 2 or 3 buckets has to be stopped immediately. Can't let that go on for the whole game. Got to stop the hot hand, whoever she might be.

Right.... how often have we heard, during a game, that such-and-such a player on the other team "has only hit two three-pointers all year, and has four of them tonight."

 

[SLY63]

I think it will come down to 3 point shooting.

On offense, our shooters need to make 3's (Paige, Azzi in particular, Shade and Strong)

On defense, I would use the Zack Eddy (sp) defense the men played in the finals last year. Use Jana, Ice and Aubrey to body Betts 1:1 all game, but don't get beat by giving the shooters open 3's. Let Betts have 25-30 but limit the others hitting 3's.

 

[The deacon]

Just another obstacle in our way to S Carolina and the NC .UCLA has ONE advantage over Uconn and that is BETTS.Neutralize her in any manner and Uconn, overall is the better team with 3 high level scorers and a defense that is second to none. Uconn's bench has scoring and defense that is first team. My assessment is a tight game in the first half and then Uconn opens up the game the way they always do GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!!

Agreeed all around, except your statement that UConn has three 'high level scorers'... Paige, Sarah and ? There are multiple others who could score in double-figures, but none should be considered high-level, except perhaps here on the Boneyard.

 

[YKCornelius]

Ok, Deacon, let’s hear YOUR definition of “high -level scorer”.

 

[Bjbod]

1) Cori Close is weak
2) Lauren Betts is tall....period.

 

[Next 12]

Just another obstacle in our way to S Carolina and the NC .UCLA has ONE advantage over Uconn and that is BETTS.Neutralize her in any manner and Uconn, overall is the better team with 3 high level scorers and a defense that is second to none. Uconn's bench has scoring and defense that is first team. My assessment is a tight game in the first half and then Uconn opens up the game the way they always do GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!!

I'm watching the game and Uconn is up by 20 points at the half. For so many fans that had doubts about this game , I say shame on you for lack of faith in your team. I have ALWAYS had FAITH in this team. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!