Game 3 - NCAA Tournament - UConn vs Oklahoma | The Boneyard

Game 3 - NCAA Tournament - UConn vs Oklahoma

cferraro04

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GAME ANALYSIS:

Game three is upon us - Sweet 16. Oklahoma is a tough opponent. I think this game will be played in the eighties. They average 85.4 points per game; UConn averages 81.7 points per game. They hit 8.5 threes per game; UConn hits 8.7 three-pointers per game. They are a good passing team, averaging 21.9 assists per game. Their defense is solid as they average 8.9 steals per game and force 16.5 turnovers on their opponents. Oklahoma's RPI is 14, and its SoS is 24. UConn's RPI is 3, and their SoS is 7. Oklahoma is led by Raegan Beers, who averages 17.5 points and 9.43 rebounds per game—per game falling just short of averaging a double-double. I think this game will be close, with UConn winning based on their size, talent, and athleticism. Oklahoma is somewhat turnover-prone, as they average 18.7 turnovers per game. UConn's press will more than likely cause them to turn the ball over at a pace with their average. Oklahoma starting five have pretty good size, averaging the following: 6'2", 6'1", 6'0", 5'11", 5'9".

PLAYER MATCH-UPS

Jana El-Alfy - 6'5" R-FR - Center vs Reagan Beers - 6'4" Junior - Forward
- Reagan is their most productive player in the post. I would expect that Jana will get some help from her teammates. Reagan averages 17.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.1 assists. She will be a handful in the paint. Jana El-Alfy averaged 5.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.0 assists. It will be important to limit Beers' touches, even though Beers will get hers.
ADANTAGE - OKLAHOMA

Sarah Strong - 6'2", Freshman, Forward vs Sahara Williams - 6'0" Sophomore - Forward
- Sahara averages 10.6 points, 1.1 three-pointers per game, 4.8 rebounds per game, 2.3 assist, and 1 steal per game. Sarah is averaging 16.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game. Sarah can also hit the three as well. She averages 1.33 threes per game. Sarah's size, talent, and athleticism will carry the day. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0: R-Senior - Guard vs Payton Verhulst - 6'1" Senior - Guard
- Payton is Oklahoma's 2nd option. She has a very solid stat line. Payton averages 14.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.4 steals, and .8 blocks. Payton also hits 2.3 three-pointers per game. Paige is averaging 19.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.1 steals, and .7 blocks. Paige hits 1.76 threes per game. I find this to be an interesting matchup.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd - 5'11" - Graduate - Guard vs Skylar Vann - 5'11" - Senior Guard / Forward
- Skylar averages 10 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 three-pointers per game. Azzi is averaging 13.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and Azzi hits 2.4 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen - 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Reyna Scott 5'9" Junior Guard:
Reyna is averaging 5.4 points, 1.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and .8 assists per game. Reyna also hits 1.1 three points per game. Kaitlyn is averaging 6.9 points, 1.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.1 assists per game. She also hits .81 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:


Oklahoma brings 30.1 points and 18.4 rebounds per game off the bench. UConn's bench produces 32.5 points and 14.6 rebounds. While statistically, it may look like a stalemate because KK and Shade can change a game when they come off the bench, I am going to go with:
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:


Both teams score in the 80s, both teams have decent defenses, and UConn has Paige, Strong, and Azzi. Oklahoma has Raegan, Payton, and Sahara. UConn has a slight height advantage over Oklahoma. The game is being played at a neutral site. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

COACHING:


No reflection on Oklahoma's coach, but Geno's staff is the best in the game. They are second to no one.

ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 82
OKLAHOMA - 75
MOV - 7
 
Last edited:
Of historical note: Sarah Strong and KK Arnold won GOLD
in the FIBA 3X3 WOMEN'S WORLD CUP U18 with
their teammate Sahara Williams (5' 11' sophomore with
the Oklahoma Sooners). The three players were all on
the 2022 USA winning U18! team in Hungry. Then, in 2023,
Sarah again teamed up with Sahara in a repeat Gold
Medal performance in the U18 FIBA 3X3 Championship.
What happed in 2024? Sarah won GOLD (again) with
Jasmine Davidson, Saniya Hall, and Adrianna Robertson.
Way to go Sarah! It should be an interesting matchup
today of the former TEAMMATES! GO KK, GO SARAH.!!
Oh, who was the women's tournament's 2024 MVP?? == Sarah Strong!
I expect to see Sarah again in future FIBA 3X3 contests (2025?)
 
before the BYers get started with our game, just want to mention that in all the years I have been watching WBB, the UNC/Duke game may have been the worst game I have ever seen. 48-37 I believe, what an embarrassment. SC really lucked out, because they really didn't look that great against Maryland. OUR NC to lose.
 
Excellent analysis, Sensei! Thanks again. One little typo: Beers is 6’4”, and big even for that size.

I have a similar expectation for the result: no blowout, though an MoV in the 10-15 pt range is conceivable. I wonder if they’ll score 70 or if UConn can hold them to something in the 60s. And an upset is also possible, especially if Sarah gets into foul trouble. What will hold the game close is if UConn’s perimeter shooters go cold. If Azzi Sarah Paige and Ash hit their 3s it will be a long day for OU. But their big guards could disrupt this aspect of our game.

Reagan is a dominant post player, an excellent scorer with a reliable midrange shooting game on top of everything else. She is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. Jana and Ice will not out play her, though they might be able to keep her from scoring more than 20. Their main contribution may be merely to protect Sarah from foul trouble. But Reagan is capable of scoring 30 and that will be a sign of a disaster.

OU has an excellent guard corps and they play ‘big’ and are very quick. They also can hit their 3s. A lot may depend on what our ‘little’ guards can do to their game. Can KK and Ash wreak their usual havoc on defense? Can Kaitlyn score 10 or more?

And an extra possibility: can Aubrey make a significant contribution? She would be difficult for OU’s guards to match up with and Sahara Williams might find her particularly difficult to cope with. And a second, perhaps less likely possibility: can Caroline give some solid minutes? She would also be a difficult matchup for them, if she’s up to it. If Aubrey can give 15 minutes of dynamic play, it could be a difference maker and take a lot of pressure off Sarah.

Their main weakness is turnovers, which tends to cancel out the virtues of their passing game, often having more TOs than assists. In their worst losses, they’ve given up more than 20 TOs. I have a feeling this will be one of those games. The first loss to SC was like this, and I think SC is the closest comparison within the SEC to UConn’s defense.

The rosy possibility is 1) that Paige Sarah and Azzi hit their 3s which opens up the paint for back cuts and 2) that we force a lot of TOs and get a bunch of steals. This strikes me as the most likely result, but by no means the only possibility. Will Paige dominate? Will Azzi and Sarah get hot from 3? Will Geno be able to play the small lineup for long stretches? If not, will Jana and Ice be able to give a solid 25+ mins between them? Will the ‘Havoc Twins’ work their awful magic on OU?

The reason I’m optimistic is that Geno has more paths to victory in this game than Jenny Baranczyk does.
 
Early on attack the paint. If we can get Beers in foul trouble, it will be a cake walk to the elite 8.
 
This is going to be a tough tough tough game. Oklahoma is really good, especially in paint. They rebound SIGNIFICANTLY better than UConn, so, UConn needs to be hitting their shots as there will not be any second chance points This, I think, will be key to this game.

If there is an upset in UConn's future, this is it. That being said, Geno knows what he is up against. UConn by 8-10 MOV. May come down to 4th quarter.
 
If there is any point of agreement about the UConn team this year (and previous years also) it is that we lack a skilled true big and that could be the flaw that foils the teams quest for another NC. This evening we get to see if that flaw can be overcome. If it can and we win it will be good practice for the likely round two against Betts.
 
before the BYers get started with our game, just want to mention that in all the years I have been watching WBB, the UNC/Duke game may have been the worst game I have ever seen. 48-37 I believe, what an embarrassment. SC really lucked out, because they really didn't look that great against Maryland. OUR NC to lose.
Not necessarily, UCLA and ND will be tough to beat.
 
before the BYers get started with our game, just want to mention that in all the years I have been watching WBB, the UNC/Duke game may have been the worst game I have ever seen. 48-37 I believe, what an embarrassment. SC really lucked out, because they really didn't look that great against Maryland. OUR NC to lose.
Amen brother!
 
I am still worried about the refs. Against Iowa Oklahoma shot 27 free throws (made 19) to Iowas 7. If they call it like that Jana, Ice, et al could be in foul trouble early.
 
I am guessing that Jana won't be on the floor unless she can avoid fouling Beers on Oklahoma's early possessions. Odds are the Sooners are going to attack her as often as they can. Then Sarah will have this matchup in the small lineup, which I think she can handle.
BTW Beers will then have to chase Sarah everywhere on defense.
 
before the BYers get started with our game, just want to mention that in all the years I have been watching WBB, the UNC/Duke game may have been the worst game I have ever seen. 48-37 I believe, what an embarrassment. SC really lucked out, because they really didn't look that great against Maryland. OUR NC to lose.
Every single Duke/UNC game this season has been terrible. The first one was laughably bad. This latest one probably set back women’s basketball 30 years/j. Head bang
 
I am old school and I like being that way. I have said so many times that Uconn's Scoring, Defense and TOTAL team cohesiveness is all Uconn needs to win this game.When Ashlynn is on her scoring Uconn has FOUR solid scorers and I think Uconn is the best defense team in the tournament.No cakewalk, But a win. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!
 
I am old school and I like being that way. I have said so many times that Uconn's Scoring, Defense and TOTAL team cohesiveness is all Uconn needs to win this game.When Ashlynn is on her scoring Uconn has FOUR solid scorers and I think Uconn is the best defense team in the tournament.No cakewalk, But a win. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!
Old School all the way Next 12. Lets face it we have a number of players who can and have stepped up and continue to do so. Ash, Chen, and down the line are Huskies who have taken the challenge and risen to the task. The Huskies are one of a very few teams who have an abundance of fire power. Some teams have a bench surprise player a good #6 UConn has 6 such players. The question then becomes will one or more of them step up when needed? I like our chances very much, just like Next 12. Enjoy the games Next 12, Mr. Old School.
 
Excellent analysis!

Team defense wins games at this time of year and I haven’t seen another team playing better defense than UConn right now. The added factor of a healthy deep bench plus a group that would run through a wall to get Paige a national championship means something and I have faith that they will move past Oklahoma today.
 
I am old school and I like being that way. I have said so many times that Uconn's Scoring, Defense and TOTAL team cohesiveness is all Uconn needs to win this game.When Ashlynn is on her scoring Uconn has FOUR solid scorers and I think Uconn is the best defense team in the tournament.No cakewalk, But a win. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!
I guess the biggest reason a lot of us BYers are Old School is because we're just plain old. :D
 
Dee Kantner is one of the refs! Angelica Suffern & Maggie Tieman are the other officials.
 
PLAYER MATCH-UPS

Jana El-Alfy - 6'5" R-FR - Center vs Reagan Beers - 6'4" Junior - Forward
- Reagan is their most productive player in the post. I would expect that Jana will get some help from her teammates. Reagan averages 17.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.1 assists. She will be a handful in the paint. Jana El-Alfy averaged 5.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.0 assists. It will be important to limit Beers' touches, even though Beers will get hers.
ADANTAGE - OKLAHOMA
I went back to this analysis (nicely done, btw), and it's interesting that also thought that it would be Jana/Ice vs Reagan, however I have to give Sarah the hat tip for doing most of the work.

In 29 minutes, Beers had 10 pts (3-11), 10 rebounds, 4 fouls.
Sarah - 30 min, 11 pts (4-13), 11 rebounds, 5 fouls (and 5 assists and 1 block)
Jana - 12 min 0 pts, 9 rebounds, 3 fouls
Ice - 12 min 0 pts
 

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