Gambling with the Basketball Gods: A Husky Fan's Test

[DobbsRover2]

Okay, so you stand before the Basketball Gods and they have decided to test your mojo-ability to help your team win the NC this year. In fact, if you fail the test you will almost guarantee a bad outcome for your team, barring a magical act by the players in those last 6 games. So you know you can't screw up here.

The BGs have told you this: "The NCAA has kept records of individual leaders during each tournament in 11 different stat categories for at least 27 years, and in some cases the full 33 years. All of these leaders must have played in at least two Tournament games, because we preside over the women's game and don't like one-and-dones. One category we consider stupid and ignore, because the NCAA will anoint a 3-point FG% leader even if she only took 2 shots, so it is worthless. We are also a little unhappy with the minimal attempts for the FG% and FT% categories so we used our divine powers to clean them up. Also know that the NCAA record keepers sometimes do foolish things like mistake a Volunteer for a Husky even after they have been told many times that it is not so, but we have corrected their foolish deeds."

"Here is the task before you, lowly Husky fan. You must select 4 of the remaining 10 categories from which your team will produce a leader this year. Know that your team has always had at least one individual tournament leader when it has won the BIG ONE. Now, since we are the cruelest of the cruel, if any of your choices are from any of five statistical categories in which the historic leaders have not come from a BIG ONE winner at least 1/4 of the time, we will insure evil things happen to your team in the Tournament this year. Sure with good coaching and inspired play they might overcome our evildoing, but you will have to live with the terrible knowledge that you have let your team down, and the lower forms of life on the Boneyard will vilify you. Also know that if one of your choices is not the category which hosts a BIG ONE winner more than half the time, or if one of your choices is the category that has a leader from the BIG ONE winner less than 1/10 of the time, we will be extra wrathful. "

"The choices lowly Husky fan, in the order presented by the NCAA, are:
1. Points per game average
2. Total Points
3. FG%
4. Total 3-point FGs
5. FT%
6. Rebound average
7. Total rebounds
8. Total assists
9. Total steals
10. Total blocks

"Choose wisely and remember, things may not always be as they seem that they should be."

 

[rvwsleep]

If I understand the question correctly, I am to pick the 4 categories that the BIG ONE winner most frequently lead in or at least finish close to the top of that category. Is that correct ?
If so then
2.
7.
8.
10.

 

[RadyLady]

I am not lowly. I am a Husky fan, and I love my team AND

I do not mess with the mojo gods....it just ain't good. (plus I ain't good with this stuff)

 

[DobbsRover2]

If I understand the question correctly, I am to pick the 4 categories that the BIG ONE winner most frequently lead in or at least finish close to the top of that category. Is that correct ?
If so then
2.
7.
8.
10.

You have interpreted the divine statements of the Basketball Gods correctly, that it is indeed those categories that have most frequently hosted a member of a BIG ONE winner that you must select. However, although you have escaped the worst of the BG's wrath with your brave attempt, there is still a need for you to go back to sleep for a year as you have not completely divined the secrets of the BIG ONE.

 

[Sonny44]

Ok, I like to embarass myself.
1,2,6,7.

 

[Buzzyboy]

How about 2,4,7,8,9,10?

 

[rvwsleep]

You have interpreted the divine statements of the Basketball Gods correctly, that it is indeed those categories that have most frequently hosted a member of a BIG ONE winner that you must select. However, although you have escaped the worst of the BG's wrath with your brave attempt, there is still a need for you to go back to sleep for a year as you have not completely divined the secrets of the BIG ONE.

That's OK. Sleeping is what I do best.

 

[rvwsleep]

I just hope this is not tied into the free throw question again.

 

[Wally East]

2, 3, 7, 8

 

[DobbsRover2]

How about 2,4,7,8,9,10?

BB, if anyone can get the Huskies an NC by pure force of mojo, it may be you, but you chose 6 instead of 4, and one is a little below the threshold. Any guess for the BGs about which one is a buzzykill?

 

[DobbsRover2]

Ok, I like to embarass myself.
1,2,6,7.

Sonny, you got two in the right place, so that's halfway for the Huskies.

 

[DobbsRover2]

2, 3, 7, 8

Wally, you have done half well for the Huskies.

 

[rjuconn]

8,2,10,7

Winner?!?

 

[ChicagoGG]

I am not lowly. I am a Husky fan, and I love my team AND

I do not mess with the mojo gods....it just ain't good. (plus I ain't good with this stuff)

++1

 

[DobbsRover2]

8,2,10,7

Winner?!?

Three out of four, RJ, and the miss was close, the 20% dish that seems like it should be right, but for some reason only one Husky has ever done it, so that puts a big crimp on the category.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I am not lowly. I am a Husky fan, and I love my team AND

I do not mess with the mojo gods....it just ain't good. (plus I ain't good with this stuff)

Oh c'mon Rady, admitting that you are humble, lowly and dooooomed is the essence of team mojo, or predicting that the team will win by 10 when you really think it will be more like 30, and never being optimistic until the NC's in the bag.

 

[rvwsleep]

Three out of four, RJ, and the miss was close, the 20% dish that seems like it should be right, but for some reason only one Husky has ever done it, so that puts a big crimp on the category.

I'm awake.
2,7,8,9

 

[DobbsRover2]

I'm awake.
2,7,8,9

First two and last are very awake, but there's one dish that needs to be sent back.

 

[meyers7]

I'll pick my own.

Margin of victory
Defensive FG%
Assist/TO ratio
Rebound differential

 

[DobbsRover2]

The story here is that the accumulation of brute total numbers is what usually makes a Tournament leader on an NC winner, which at for the last 21 years has played 6 games and whose players have had more time to pick up points and rebounds and all than all but one other team. Averages such as PPG, FG%, and FT% (plus that minimal standard 3-pt FG% stat) are rarely led by a NC winner member because some player whose team got knocked out in the second round averaged 28.0 ppg and 52% FG%.

UConn players have been leaders 29 times (with a total of 30 player instances since KML and Hartley had a tie last year) in 11 categories (Sales was legitimately tops in 3-pt FG% in 1996), with 21 of them coming in UConn NC years. Taurasi has led 5 times, Maya Moore 4, and Sue Bird 3, and Bascom, Wolters, Charles, and KML getting 2 among multiple winners. The NCAA also credits Abby Conklin's tops in that ignored here 3-pt FG% in 1997 as being for UConn rather than UTenn, and Conklin's mark is the only time in 27 years that an NC winner has led that category, as Sales did it one year too late.

The breakdown:

1. Points per game average - 4 times in 33, and 12%. DT in 2003 is the only UConn NC winner, though Bascom did it in 1991. Again players who are the focus of their team's scoring for 2 games before bowing out often win here.

2. Total Points: 18 in 33 times, and 55%. DT in 2003, Maya in 2009 and 2010, and KML in 2013 all were leaders for NC winners, and Bascom was tops in 1991. Play six games and pile up the points, and in the last 10 years the leader has come from an NC winner except in 2008 and 2014 (Sims). From 1982-1985 at a time when the winner played only played 5 games, there were no leaders from the NC team.

3. FG%: 4 in 33 years, and 12%. Tina was the leader in 2009, and Kara was tops in non-NC years 1994 and 1997 years, a freshman-then-senior feat matched by ND's Skylar Diggins in steals in 2010 and 2013. Oddly, the leaders were NC winners in the first two years 1982 and 1983, but not again until MD's Langhorne in 2006 and then Charles in 2009. Play six games and you usually have one off game; play two and maybe not.

4. Total 3-point FGs: 11 times in 27 years, and 41%. Big one for UConn. Bird in 2000 and 2002, DT in 2003 and 2004, Montgomery in 2009 and Moore in 2010, and both KML and Hartley in 2014. 8 Huskies in 7 NCs, and no category is more fruitful in bringing in the NCs for them.

5. FT%: 2 in 33 years, or 6%. Only Bird has led for the Huskies when she hit 20 of 20 in 2002, and the only other NC winner was UTenn's Sidney Spencer in 2007 who hit 17 of 17. But you can win this category by going 6 for 6, so NC winners are scarce here and you basically have to be perfect for 6 games.

6. Rebound average. 4 times in 33 years, or 12%. No Huskies here. Rebounds are important but no NC winner has led her in two decades since Charlotte Smith did it for UNC. No Charles or Griner? Again, play two games and pick up two dozen rebounds and you're hard to beat for an NC winner.

7. Total rebounds: 15 times in 33 years, and 46%. Tamika Williams in 2002 and Charles in 2009 did it as NC winners, and Cash in 2001 and Maya in 2011 also were tops. UTenn has often topped this category, and brute number of games is the key here. Was a little surprised that Cash outdid Riley in 2001.

8. Total assists. 6 times in 30 years, and 20%. Only Husky to lead this category was DT in 2002 (yes, more than Bird). No NC winner has led in this category since MD's Tolliver in 2006. Blame it on Huskies sharing the assist duties and the fact that Diggins won it from 2011 to 2013, and you know that means 0 for 3 there.

9. Total steals. 7 times in 27 years, and 26%. Only UConn leader was that pesky MoJeff in 2014. Surprisingly high relevance here in a category that started being recorded in 1988. Three UTenn winners are the main factor here.

10. Total blocks. 8 times in 27 years. Lobo led the category twice in 1994 and then in 1995 as an NC winner, Schuie stuffed a title in 2000 and was followed in 2002 by Ashja Jones. But Jones' tops was the last one before Griner did it in 2012. Charles was up against Fowles, C. Paris, and Griner, and last year BYU's Hamson was a little better than the members of UConn's block party like Dolson, Stewart, Stokes, and MoJeff.

Best performance by an NC winner was Sheryl Swoopes in 1993 for Texas Tech as she was four-most in PPG, Points, Rebound Average, and Rebound Total.

So it's 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, and may the mojo roll on even if we are all doooooomed.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I'll pick my own.

Margin of victory
Defensive FG%
Assist/TO ratio
Rebound differential

Those team ones of course are much more relevant than individual ones, but the NCAA doesn't provide a list of year-by-year leaders for teams in the Tournament. I'm guessing that UConn would do even better as a team, but again the "average" categories would still be populated by teams that went two-and-done.

 

[rvwsleep]

The story here is that the accumulation of brute total numbers is what usually makes a Tournament leader on an NC winner, which at for the last 21 years has played 6 games and whose players have had more time to pick up points and rebounds and all than all but one other team. Averages such as PPG, FG%, and FT% (plus that minimal standard 3-pt FG% stat) are rarely led by a NC winner member because some player whose team got knocked out in the second round averaged 28.0 ppg and 52% FG%.

UConn players have been leaders 29 times (with a total of 30 player instances since KML and Hartley had a tie last year) in 11 categories (Sales was legitimately tops in 3-pt FG% in 1996), with 21 of them coming in UConn NC years. Taurasi has led 5 times, Maya Moore 4, and Sue Bird 3, and Bascom, Wolters, Charles, and KML getting 2 among multiple winners. The NCAA also credits Abby Conklin's tops in that ignored here 3-pt FG% in 1997 as being for UConn rather than UTenn, and Conklin's mark is the only time in 27 years that an NC winner has led that category, as Sales did it one year too late.

The breakdown:

1. Points per game average - 4 times in 33, and 12%. DT in 2003 is the only UConn NC winner, though Bascom did it in 1991. Again players who are the focus of their team's scoring for 2 games before bowing out often win here.

2. Total Points: 18 in 33 times, and 55%. DT in 2003, Maya in 2009 and 2010, and KML in 2013 all were leaders for NC winners, and Bascom was tops in 1991. Play six games and pile up the points, and in the last 10 years the leader has come from an NC winner except in 2008 and 2014 (Sims). From 1982-1985 at a time when the winner played only played 5 games, there were no leaders from the NC team.

3. FG%: 4 in 33 years, and 12%. Tina was the leader in 2009, and Kara was tops in non-NC years 1994 and 1997 years, a freshman-then-senior feat matched by ND's Skylar Diggins in steals in 2010 and 2013. Oddly, the leaders were NC winners in the first two years 1982 and 1983, but not again until MD's Langhorne in 2006 and then Charles in 2009. Play six games and you usually have one off game; play two and maybe not.

4. Total 3-point FGs: 11 times in 27 years, and 41%. Big one for UConn. Bird in 2000 and 2002, DT in 2003 and 2004, Montgomery in 2009 and Moore in 2010, and both KML and Hartley in 2014. 8 Huskies in 7 NCs, and no category is more fruitful in bringing in the NCs for them.

5. FT%: 2 in 33 years, or 6%. Only Bird has led for the Huskies when she hit 20 of 20 in 2002, and the only other NC winner was UTenn's Sidney Spencer in 2007 who hit 17 of 17. But you can win this category by going 6 for 6, so NC winners are scarce here and you basically have to be perfect for 6 games.

6. Rebound average. 4 times in 33 years, or 12%. No Huskies here. Rebounds are important but no NC winner has led her in two decades since Charlotte Smith did it for UNC. No Charles or Griner? Again, play two games and pick up two dozen rebounds and you're hard to beat for an NC winner.

7. Total rebounds: 15 times in 33 years, and 46%. Tamika Williams in 2002 and Charles in 2009 did it as NC winners, and Cash in 2001 and Maya in 2011 also were tops. UTenn has often topped this category, and brute number of games is the key here. Was a little surprised that Cash outdid Riley in 2001.

8. Total assists. 6 times in 30 years, and 20%. Only Husky to lead this category was DT in 2002 (yes, more than Bird). No NC winner has led in this category since MD's Tolliver in 2006. Blame it on Huskies sharing the assist duties and the fact that Diggins won it from 2011 to 2013, and you know that means 0 for 3 there.

9. Total steals. 7 times in 27 years, and 26%. Only UConn leader was that pesky MoJeff in 2014. Surprisingly high relevance here in a category that started being recorded in 1988. Three UTenn winners are the main factor here.

10. Total blocks. 8 times in 27 years. Lobo led the category twice in 1994 and then in 1995 as an NC winner, Schuie stuffed a title in 2000 and was followed in 2002 by Ashja Jones. But Jones' tops was the last one before Griner did it in 2012. Charles was up against Fowles, C. Paris, and Griner, and last year BYU's Hamson was a little better than the members of UConn's block party like Dolson, Stewart, Stokes, and MoJeff.

Best performance by an NC winner was Sheryl Swoopes in 1993 for Texas Tech as she was four-most in PPG, Points, Rebound Average, and Rebound Total.

So it's 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, and may the mojo roll on even if we are all doooooomed.

I thought you could only pick 4 ? So 2,4,7 and 10 no ?

 

[DobbsRover2]

I thought you could only pick 4 ? So 2,4,7 and 10 no ?

Oh I could have said you had to be a perfect 5 for 5, but you only needed to get 4 of 5 to avert the wrath of the Basketball Gods, who are slightly more cruel than me.