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So, as Connecticut fans, we all know that the men's program was unfavorably seeded at 7 (along with the rest of the AAC), and it's pretty clear to me that they've proven that with their play through the tournament. What I found really interesting, however, was that Massey (one of the ranking algorithms) agrees.
When I ran UConn through the tournament just now, here are the odds I got (heads up, this factors in at least the first three tournament wins, but I bet that's a fairly minor impact over all):
Against Saint Josephs: 70%
Against Villanova: 54%
Against Iowa State: 54%
Against Michigan State: 36%
Massey disagreed with seeding, general consensus, and commentators in having UConn as the favorite against Villanova and Iowa State, rather than the distinct underdog. Obviously, four games isn't significant, but I think this could be one of the omens about more sophisticated statistical analysis (I mean, obviously almost anything is better than RPI) taking a more significant role in determining seeding.
For those who are curious, Massey gives us a surmountable 25% chance of taking down Florida in the final four.
On the women's side, Massey gave us 100% odds in the first three rounds (including against BYU), 99% against Texas A&M, 96% against Stanford, and 77% against Notre Dame.
When I ran UConn through the tournament just now, here are the odds I got (heads up, this factors in at least the first three tournament wins, but I bet that's a fairly minor impact over all):
Against Saint Josephs: 70%
Against Villanova: 54%
Against Iowa State: 54%
Against Michigan State: 36%
Massey disagreed with seeding, general consensus, and commentators in having UConn as the favorite against Villanova and Iowa State, rather than the distinct underdog. Obviously, four games isn't significant, but I think this could be one of the omens about more sophisticated statistical analysis (I mean, obviously almost anything is better than RPI) taking a more significant role in determining seeding.
For those who are curious, Massey gives us a surmountable 25% chance of taking down Florida in the final four.
On the women's side, Massey gave us 100% odds in the first three rounds (including against BYU), 99% against Texas A&M, 96% against Stanford, and 77% against Notre Dame.