We're a little over halfway through the season and so some of the lineup data has begun to settle a bit. Still not very predictive at this point, but it's descriptive (what happened so far but not necessarily what will happen in the future... keep that in mind please when interpreting the data).
Anyone want to guess what our best 5 man lineup has been so far this season (garbage time and sub 200 competition filtered out, minimum of 20 possessions played)?
If you guessed Cole, Jackson, Martin, Polley, Whaley, you're right! A pretty dominant +59.7 net rating (per 100 pos). This lineup played mostly in the Providence game and then in the Marquette game next as well (so game with Sanogo out and minutes restriction). The same lineup with Sanogo in for Whaley is close behind (+52.1) and has been our best offensive lineup. It was mostly used in Mich St, Seton Hall, and home Butler games (with a few poss here and there in other games).
The current starting lineup (so Sanogo in for Polley, +43.7) is next, but it has way more possessions used (4x more), so when you factor in some regression from the top 2 lineups, it's probably fair to say that it has been our best lineup statistically as well as best in Hurley's eye test. It's also been our best "luck-adjusted" lineup, but only rates as the 68th best lineup from the top 150 teams (with cupcakes in for that one). Filtering out lineups with less than 100 possession makes it the 26th best lineup (16th when considering t100 games only).
Our best defensive lineup has been Cole, Gaffney, Jackson, Polley, and Akok at 0.71 ppp, (with the starting lineup right there too at 0.73). This was used primarily against Providence and Marquette, but was kinda bad on offense, so despite being dominant on defense is in the middle of the pack for our lineups overall.
Our most used bad lineup has been Cole, Jackson, Martin, Akok, and Sanogo. If you said, hey, that's basically the starting lineup but with Akok in for Whaley, you're right! It's been used throughout the year when Sanogo was healthy, and especially in Mich St game when Whaley was out. It's been mediocre on both offense and defense (+2.6 net rating), mostly because we've shot 14% from 3 with the lineup and taken the least amount of 3's of any lineup, despite 4 shooters on the court. This is a heavy Sanogo dump-in lineup: he's got over 40% usage with this lineup. However, his efficiency has been better with this lineup and his turnovers low, so his shot selection is not the reason the lineup has been bad. None of Cole, Martin, or Jackson have made a 3 in the 62 possessions of this lineup (and obviously not Sanogo). Only Akok made a couple. Martin also specifically has had trouble finishing in this lineup compared to the rest of his minutes.
Our absolute worst lineup has been Cole, Hawkins, Martin, Polley, and Sanogo. And it's been the worst BY FAR. It's our only lineup (with >20 poss) where we've been outscored, and this lineup has a -75 net rating, which is not just bad, but atrocious. We've scored 0.57 ppp (abominable) and our opponents have scored 1.32 ppp (abominable). This lineup was primarily used last game against Butler and a bit against Mich St and Seton Hall among others. Over 23 possessions, despite having who we thought coming in might be our 4 best shooters, the lineup has made 0 3's and opponents have made 67% of their 3s against. Hawkins is the highest usage volume player in this lineup, but didn't make a single shot or get to the line at all during this lineup's minutes. Cole also didn't make a single shot in this lineup. Sanogo shot half his normal %. Somehow, this is the lineup where we've had the highest % of our attempts at the rim, but we've converted terribly (Martin has actually been fine in this lineup, but Hawkins/Cole/Sanogo yuck yuck yuck near the rim). Defensively we forced a good amount of turnovers and a mostly normal shot distributions. Opponents just bombed away successfully, we fouled a bit more often, and this was our worst defensive rebounding lineup (which makes sense with Polley at the 4 and no Jackson).
Anyone want to guess what our best 5 man lineup has been so far this season (garbage time and sub 200 competition filtered out, minimum of 20 possessions played)?
If you guessed Cole, Jackson, Martin, Polley, Whaley, you're right! A pretty dominant +59.7 net rating (per 100 pos). This lineup played mostly in the Providence game and then in the Marquette game next as well (so game with Sanogo out and minutes restriction). The same lineup with Sanogo in for Whaley is close behind (+52.1) and has been our best offensive lineup. It was mostly used in Mich St, Seton Hall, and home Butler games (with a few poss here and there in other games).
The current starting lineup (so Sanogo in for Polley, +43.7) is next, but it has way more possessions used (4x more), so when you factor in some regression from the top 2 lineups, it's probably fair to say that it has been our best lineup statistically as well as best in Hurley's eye test. It's also been our best "luck-adjusted" lineup, but only rates as the 68th best lineup from the top 150 teams (with cupcakes in for that one). Filtering out lineups with less than 100 possession makes it the 26th best lineup (16th when considering t100 games only).
Our best defensive lineup has been Cole, Gaffney, Jackson, Polley, and Akok at 0.71 ppp, (with the starting lineup right there too at 0.73). This was used primarily against Providence and Marquette, but was kinda bad on offense, so despite being dominant on defense is in the middle of the pack for our lineups overall.
Our most used bad lineup has been Cole, Jackson, Martin, Akok, and Sanogo. If you said, hey, that's basically the starting lineup but with Akok in for Whaley, you're right! It's been used throughout the year when Sanogo was healthy, and especially in Mich St game when Whaley was out. It's been mediocre on both offense and defense (+2.6 net rating), mostly because we've shot 14% from 3 with the lineup and taken the least amount of 3's of any lineup, despite 4 shooters on the court. This is a heavy Sanogo dump-in lineup: he's got over 40% usage with this lineup. However, his efficiency has been better with this lineup and his turnovers low, so his shot selection is not the reason the lineup has been bad. None of Cole, Martin, or Jackson have made a 3 in the 62 possessions of this lineup (and obviously not Sanogo). Only Akok made a couple. Martin also specifically has had trouble finishing in this lineup compared to the rest of his minutes.
Our absolute worst lineup has been Cole, Hawkins, Martin, Polley, and Sanogo. And it's been the worst BY FAR. It's our only lineup (with >20 poss) where we've been outscored, and this lineup has a -75 net rating, which is not just bad, but atrocious. We've scored 0.57 ppp (abominable) and our opponents have scored 1.32 ppp (abominable). This lineup was primarily used last game against Butler and a bit against Mich St and Seton Hall among others. Over 23 possessions, despite having who we thought coming in might be our 4 best shooters, the lineup has made 0 3's and opponents have made 67% of their 3s against. Hawkins is the highest usage volume player in this lineup, but didn't make a single shot or get to the line at all during this lineup's minutes. Cole also didn't make a single shot in this lineup. Sanogo shot half his normal %. Somehow, this is the lineup where we've had the highest % of our attempts at the rim, but we've converted terribly (Martin has actually been fine in this lineup, but Hawkins/Cole/Sanogo yuck yuck yuck near the rim). Defensively we forced a good amount of turnovers and a mostly normal shot distributions. Opponents just bombed away successfully, we fouled a bit more often, and this was our worst defensive rebounding lineup (which makes sense with Polley at the 4 and no Jackson).
