Freshmen vs Transfers

[HuskyWarrior611]

I’m just starting this thread because I feel like this topic takes a lot of threads off track. So this could help keep it contained in one place.

There’s a discussion going on in the Ahmad thread that Rutgers would’ve preferred to have Cam Spencer over the #1 and #2 freshman in the country for 2024. Do people think transfer experience really matters THAT much??

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

I'm taking Spencer for 1 year as a 5th year guy over 1 year of Nick Smith or Dariq Whitehead.

@superjohn so by your logic, you would’ve took 1 year of a transfer PG over possibly 1 year with Stephon Castle?

 

[navery12]

You need both to win, but yes transfer experience matters a ton. I like the balance we have now with bringing in top freshman and top transfers to fill holes every year. We don't win a championship without Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban last year. But we also don't win a championship without Tristen Newton, Joey Calcaterra, Nahiem Alleyne and Hassan Diarra. I don't like it as an either or, there's value in both

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

You need both to win, but yes transfer experience matters a ton. I like the balance we have now with bringing in top freshman and top transfers to fill holes every year. We don't win a championship without Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban last year. But we also don't win a championship without Tristen Newton, Joey Calcaterra, Nahiem Alleyne and Hassan Diarra. I don't like it as an either or, there's value in both

I like transfers when they fill in holes on the team.

The thing I liked most about last year is that none of the transfers necessarily played over young talent. They played different roles that we needed. Which allowed guys like Karaban and Clingan to blossom with the freedom they had compared to if we brought guys in if we thought they weren’t ready.

My issue is when we bring in transfers over a talented freshman we have coming in. Because then that’s mitigating the potential impact they can make and growth.

 

[superjohn]

@superjohn so by your logic, you would’ve took 1 year of a transfer PG over possibly 1 year with Stephon Castle?

Umm, no.

 

[yungdowork]

Personally, I think good freshmen elevate the program more significantly in terms of long-term program health. Good recruiting classes raise the perception of the school, and in turn can get you better freshmen and transfers in subsequent years.

If you're only looking through the lens of a single season, I think a lot of upperclassmen transfers would be more productive than top recruits. But it's a lot harder to build a program with guys who are only going to be around for 1-2 years (which is also the problem with a lot of the very top recruits).

 

[navery12]

I like transfers when they fill in holes on the team.

The thing I liked most about last year is that none of the transfers necessarily played over young talent. They played different roles that we needed. Which allowed guys like Karaban and Clingan to blossom with the freedom they had compared to if we brought guys in if we thought they weren’t ready.

My issue is when we bring in transfers over a talented freshman we have coming in. Because then that’s mitigating the potential impact they can make and growth.

I don't disagree, don't think anyone here wants a team full of transfers. So where do you land on Cam Spencer over Ross and Stewart?

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Umm, no.

How is that different from the original statement?

 

[Jaydumo20]

What I think is going unsaid is the subconscious bias, from a pure fan perspective, that many prefer to have a 'pure' recruit over a one/2yr year transfer. I think it clouds our collective judgement a bit. I know I see Castle differently than Spencer, since Castle chose us from the start.
But doubt that any BYer would ever admit to having any biases whatsoever (wink)

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Ugh

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

I don't disagree, don't think anyone here wants a team full of transfers. So where do you land on Cam Spencer over Ross and Stewart?

I would’ve been okay with us rolling with Ross and Stewart. I’m a big Ross fan as everyone knows and thought he could’ve been the shooter we’re looking for while also being a high level defender.

My worry is, what if one of them comes out and does play like a Karaban, Bouknight, etc.? Are we going to keep rolling with Cam because he’s older and stunt their growth? How do we handle that situation? Because talent wise they are better. We just don’t know how productive they can be yet.

It seems like there’s now a cap on how good those guys can be this year.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Ugh

Made a whole new thread so if you didn’t like the conversation you don’t have to be a part of it. Lol

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Made a whole new thread so if you didn’t like the conversation you don’t have to be a part of it. Lol

It’s just a whole bunch of circles. It’s a pointless discussion.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

The thing I don’t get about the logic behind a 1 year transfer over a 1 year recruit is, that means we wouldn’t want Castle and we’d rather have the transfer.

Can anyone explain what the difference is there?

 

[jibsey]

I would’ve been okay with us rolling with Ross and Stewart. I’m a big Ross fan as everyone knows and thought he could’ve been the shooter we’re looking for while also being a high level defender.

My worry is, what if one of them comes out and does play like a Karaban, Bouknight, etc.? Are we going to keep rolling with Cam because he’s older and stunt their growth? How do we handle that situation? Because talent wise they are better. We just don’t know how productive they can be yet.

It seems like there’s now a cap on how good those guys can be this year.

It’s hard for a lot of us who have only seen highlights showing them making every shot guess as to just how good they can be. Hurley knows with quite a bit of certainty I bet and we will all be clued in by December.

 

[Ratso]

top 20 transfer

 

[Palatine]

Yes.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

It’s hard for a lot of us who have only seen highlights showing them making every shot guess as to just how good they can be. Hurley knows with quite a bit of certainty I bet and we will all be clued in by December.

Eh, Hurley has been surprised before. Coaches aren’t perfect. Otherwise they would never miss on guys. And this goes for all coaches lol

 

[REB1094]

It's good to have both

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

The thing I don’t get about the logic behind a 1 year transfer over a 1 year recruit is, that means we wouldn’t want Castle and we’d rather have the transfer.

Can anyone explain what the difference is there?

There are some flaws in your framing that make things 'difficult' for you.

First you refer to "logic" as though that's the governing element in the choice of a transfer over a recruit or vice versa. It's more reasoning than logic, which means it may be more imprecise or not fully accurate. In the case of Castle, you seem to have exposed the imperfections of trying to look at things through a single filter.

I suggest that you dispense with trying to figure things out in so restricted a way.

It is worth mention that in the case of some transfers, it is fully know that it's a one-year player, due to eligibility limits. With respect to a highly-touted freshman, it is not the exact same degree of certainty that it's a one-year player. It might be the ambition or desire or plan of the player and/or coaching staff, but that is not required to happen, so there's no guarantee.

Free yourself of assumptions that are not necessarily true, and you will be less perplexed. And if you don't want to do that, then at least accept that others are under no obligation to view things the way you do.

 

[Ricker]

My desire for players is based on whether I think they move the needle to contend for championships whether they are freshman or transfers. Bouknight, Akok, Jackson, Sanogo, Hawkins, Floyd, Johnson, Clingan, Karaban, and all 5 of our new guys have seemed like worthy freshman investments to me. I really don't have the same view of our 2024 prospects. Admittedly, I have only gone in and out of games watching our top prospects, but, sign me up for a heavier dose of transfers for next year's team. I liked Carlton who showed well with Houston, and Ngongba seems like a player of that ilk. I think adding any actual 2024 impact player will need to come from the portal or a 2025 reclass.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

I’m just starting this thread because I feel like this topic takes a lot of threads off track. So this could help keep it contained in one place.

There’s a discussion going on in the Ahmad thread that Rutgers would’ve preferred to have Cam Spencer over the #1 and #2 freshman in the country for 2024. Do people think transfer experience really matters THAT much??

Yes. I don’t know how you can watch college basketball or the NCAA tournament and conclude otherwise.

You beat this drum for freshmen really hard and the two kids from Arkansas are good examples. They are lottery picks and might go on to great NBA careers but in the tourney give me the 22 year old kid who might not have the same pro career all day. It’s not a hard and fast rule but it’s borderline strange that someone who watches college basketball doesn’t see the logic. There’s abundant empirical evidence supporting it.

To me it’s the same as watching some kid beat up on 16 year olds in an AAU game and proclaiming them better than guys that’ve been getting it done on the college level (which also happens quite a bit around here.)

 

[InTheRed]

I would’ve been okay with us rolling with Ross and Stewart. I’m a big Ross fan as everyone knows and thought he could’ve been the shooter we’re looking for while also being a high level defender.

My worry is, what if one of them comes out and does play like a Karaban, Bouknight, etc.? Are we going to keep rolling with Cam because he’s older and stunt their growth? How do we handle that situation? Because talent wise they are better. We just don’t know how productive they can be yet.

It seems like there’s now a cap on how good those guys can be this year.

If we were in a mode of building for a tournament run in a couple years, spencer would not be a good choice over the freshman. He is here to guarantee a strong shooter this year because we are positioned to make another big run this year.

And if he isnt performing, those kids will get their chance to prove themselves.

 

[Huskyforlife]

I think most people would rather have Ace Bailey than Cam Spencer. But most people don’t have a top ten roster that desperately needed a proven shooter. If you were starting a team, you’d take Bailey. Context matters.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Yes. I don’t know how you can watch college basketball or the NCAA tournament and conclude otherwise.

You beat this drum for freshmen really hard and the two kids from Arkansas are good examples. They are lottery picks and might go on to great NBA careers but in the tourney give me the 22 year old kid who might not have the same pro career all day. It’s not a hard and fast rule but it’s borderline strange that someone who watches college basketball doesn’t see the logic. There’s abundant empirical evidence supporting it.

To me it’s the same as watching some kid beat up on 16 year olds in an AAU game and proclaiming them better than guys that’ve been getting it done on the college level (which also happens quite a bit around here.)

I don’t think Arkansas is the example you think it is.

They upset 1 seeded Kansas and had a pretty good run until they ran into the National Champions.

Even though to be fair! The more experienced guys were a big reason for that.