Florida State and 3 Point Shooting | The Boneyard

Florida State and 3 Point Shooting

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meyers7

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Four games ago, Nebraska hit 4 threes. The next game, Chatanooga hit 4.
Two games ago, DePaul hit 13 threes. The next game, Notre Dame hit 13.
Last game, Colgate hit 9 threes. So I'm going with FSU hitting 9. :cool:

Or they will make 3....;)
As we watched the game last night we kept observing the one gal throwing up the ball from all over the place and often she was contested and yet the ball went in. Seven for ten. And look, for those who think UConn didn't play defense the numbers are clear, Colgate shot 35% for the game, they were 9-19 from deep (47%). Take the one gal out and they were 2-9, not that sharp. We'll see what happens Friday.
 

DobbsRover2

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In an unusual coincidence, last year's first 7 opponents hoisted 154 3pt attempts and made 56, an average of 36.4%, and that matches exactly the numbers for this year. The first seven teams in both years averaged 22 attempts, making 8. Last year's eighth opponent was DePaul, so you know they were jacking them, to the tune of 6 0f 27 for 22.2%, a game that at least got UConn's 3pt defense mark trending down toward its final 26.8%. From that DePaul game on, opponents averaged 18 3pt attempts per game, making 4.4 for an average 24.5%. So Husky fans need not get too despondent about the perimeter wars yet.

Each year is different, and the numbers can be very game-by-game as you play a third game against Rutgers two years ago when the attempted 0 3pters and follow it the next day with the ACCT championship game where Louisville tries 29. In general over the years the first two months in OOC play has teams taking more 3pt attempts against he Huskies and making more. There are probably many reasons for this, some of which focus on most of the other AAC teams not being big on 3pters, but also that UConn is always focusing on developing its interior defense early in the year, and as the season progresses it works on honing the perimeter techniques to shut down the more open looks, cut off passes, and push teams further back outside the comfort zone. But an adept and hot team like Dayton can still change things up and put a 9-19 tally against UConn in the Elite 8 game last year.

As stated in many raging posts last year, even fairly large large jumps in an opponent's 3pt shooting or FT shooting in a game rarely make much difference against the Huskies unless they take a humongous amount of them, and UConn does not give up many FTAs and when an opponent shoots more than 25 3pters, the rate is rarely above 33%, and usually much much lower. As in the run defense in football, it's the battle in the trenches for the 2pt shot where seasons are won and lost, and last year UConn was also tremendous there limiting teams to 32.7% for an overall figure of 30.9% on all shots. But to make sure you have the best dug trenches for the March-April games, you do have to do a lot of spade work and practice a lot on the interior defense to create that great product we see every spring in its many different forms and lineups. The work on the court of cleaning up the debris in more outer regions of space to prevent a stray rogue asteroid from destroying the UConn's Tourney season can proceed without cause for much alarm.

As noted in another post yesterday, UConn is the sad record holder for having given up the highest 3pt average to an opponent in an NC game at 57.1%. But the bombs amounted to only 15 points, and though UConn shot only 11.1% from the arc, it at least got some consolation by shooting 50.8% overall and leaving the Vol players pasted to the floor in a 71-52 beatdown that was described at the time as "the biggest letdown in women's college basketball championship games" (not for Husky fans) and of which Pat Summitt said, "I've done this 26 years and I never experienced anything like today." She would be saying the same thing two years later after a semifinal game in which her team would shoot a more modest 21.4% from the arc.
 

BigBird

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I come at this topic a little differently, though perhaps not completely so. If the opposing player or team is shooting multiple unguarded threes, then something is wrong defensively. But, if the opp is shooting a guarded three, then that plays into the Huskies' hands. Nobody can hit a defended three-shot with sufficient consistency to beat UConn. True, someone or some team can get insanely hot and become the tail of the normal distribution (or "outlier" if you prefer). An opponent might well try to be "that team" if they see no other reasonable chance to win. Who wouldn't? UConn is more athletic than most of the competition, and what I see on the game replay is that they are capable of defending the arc without completely sacrificing defense in the block. Said another way, UConn can (and I think does) play the percentages, realizing that as events revert to the mean, they won't be defeated by guarded threes. Unguarded? That could be another matter, as the made-shot percentage would be expected to rise. CD has said that if UConn makes its two pointers, they won't get beat by threes. How can this be? Simple - UConn will have more possessions due to steals and rebounding advantage. Nullify that, and things will get tighter.

I still see Orrange's three that wrecked UConn to start last season. But that tends to support my point. She shot an unguarded shot, and it WAS the outlier in terms of win-loss. UConn hasn't lost since!
 

JoePgh

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UConn has been messing around with a zone defense, and I'm not sure quite why. Against Colgate, Geno tried it for 5 minutes, saw a lot of unguarded 3's go up and in, and switched back to man. After that, there were (as I recall) no more unguarded 3-point attempts, and Colgate's whole offense stalled.

I can understand why Geno played zone against Ohio State, since penetration by their two guards was basically the majority of OSU's offense. Against all the teams after that, I don't really see what UConn gains with a zone -- and it certainly makes it harder to guard the 3-point line. I know that the Syracuse men manage to do that (it's how Boeheim made his career), but most zones including UConn's tend to leave the 3-point line pretty open.

Notre Dame and DePaul ran an effective enough offense that they could get their 3-point shooters free even against a man-to-man defense, but they have some of the best offensive schemes in the land outside of Storrs.
 
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FSU is up next on 6 PM Friday at Mohegan Sun. Game is televised on ESPN2

FSU has made 32 3's out of 97 attempts for a 33% shooting percentage and an average of 4 per game. They did make 7-13 against Sam Houston. FSU Stats: http://www.seminoles.com/ViewContent.dbml?&DB_OEM_ID=32900&CONTENT_ID=1523466

Wonder how many 3's FSU will attempt and make in this game.

The Angels of Basketball have bestowed upon UConn's opponents a supernatural ability to fling the ball in the air and have it swish the halo of the net. As long as the Angels have some perverse interest in tantalizing the Huskies (just for the Heaven of it), 3's will fall like rain upon the parched earth of opponents' offensive games. OR UConn can figure out how to control their own destiny by actually defending the perimeter . . .
 

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There is a zone commonly played against good perimeter shooting teams called the 3-2, and maybe if opponents are like Sacramento State or have four guards popping from the outside you might even go to some kind of 4-1 with quick step-backs as needed. Excluding all the other game factors however, shooting a three against UConn seems to be a decidedly better option according to the brute mathematics of getting 3 points on a very low percentage shot to getting just 2 points for a only slightly better percentage shot. That's why a high 31% of the opponents shots were 3s, while even for other top teams like ND and USCar it was a lesser 28% and 24% respectively.

But there are also big disadvantages for teams that settle into arc attacks against UConn. The big advantage for UConn is not only far less PFs called against them (#2 in nation last year), but that opponents become far more predictable as the season progresses while trying to set up 3-point shots that can be very dangerous as MoJeff gets into her predator mode that began on the first game after Christmas last year and ended with her getting 100 steals on the year, many of which ended up with an easy layup. And since the opponents always end up hitting between 26% and 28% over the course of the year even if they get a little frisky in the early season, UConn can be pretty content.
 

DobbsRover2

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And something stolen from VolNation, which occasionally has good nuggets (blasphemy on both, I know)

If you read anything about Geno's philosophy (blasphemy I know), he mentions that he starts off only teaching offense the first four weeks of the year because he doesn't want his defense to get too good too quickly in a way that stifles offensive development in practice.

Another reason why UConn's defense seems to get much better as the season progresses: Geno has the team practicing it more and he starts scolding players who aren't getting into late-season defense mode quickly enough. Holly makes statements early in the season that she doesn't give a fig about offense and she just wants her team to concentrate on defense; with Geno it's the opposite as he puts more focus on getting the offense flowing.
 
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They can go 15 for 20 from behind the arc, many of which will be one footed and off balance, or over the outstretched hands of Stewie, combined with the behind the back while falling out of bounds as the shot clock expires variety and they'll still lose by double digits.
 

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In the olden days a zone D was used by teams that were incapable of playing a solid man D, the latter being considered as the stronger, more effective defense. Also, it was more difficult for the offense to run up points from a distance because there was no 3. I always enjoyed playing against a zone because a move or two (no shot clock) usually opened up a mid-range jumper. Ahhh, the good 'ol days.
 
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A big reason for the number of 3pt made baskets against UConn is due to the fact that they are so aggressive. UConn presses, traps, puts pressure on the ball, and gets in passing lanes. While this leads a number of easy turnovers and pts off turnovers it also leads to open jump shots in the form of gambling and missing on the defensive end.
 
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A big reason for the number of 3pt made baskets against UConn is due to the fact that they are so aggressive. UConn presses, traps, puts pressure on the ball, and gets in passing lanes. While this leads a number of easy turnovers and pts off turnovers it also leads to open jump shots in the form of gambling and missing on the defensive end.

My memory might be betraying me, but five or so years ago I seem to recall them playing a much more conservative defense than they do today. It's interesting, because both styles of defense are very effective in UConn's hands, yet they feel entirely different in 'character'.

When did they start to transition from set piece defense to cowboy defense? :D Was it when Stewie's class arrived, or was it Nurse's class?
 
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If they take 60 of there shots as three pointers and shoot 40% that gives them 72 points. Add 10 foul shots and they have 82 points. Not only is that unlikely, it's not enough points to beat UCONN. No worries. :D
 
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In the last few games,it has been one player especially that has shot other-worldly so i would use a box and one with the box on the hot shooter.Seriously though it will be interesting to see what defensive structure that uconn uses in various situations during the game.If uconn plays zone fsu is a terrific offensive rebounding team and they get more opportunities to showcase this skill vs.a zone defense.If m2m defense is employed it will be interesting to see who Geno trusts on defense to keep fsu contained.Is it game time yet?
 
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In the olden days a zone D was used by teams that were incapable of playing a solid man D, the latter being considered as the stronger, more effective defense. Also, it was more difficult for the offense to run up points from a distance because there was no 3. I always enjoyed playing against a zone because a move or two (no shot clock) usually opened up a mid-range jumper. Ahhh, the good 'ol days.

Ah: a really good point. This should tell you, in part, why Gabby is sitting more than usual--that open spot in the zone. She is reluctant to take that mid-range jumper. If she can't drive to the hoop, she'll usually pass. She needs to shoot.
 

DobbsRover2

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My memory might be betraying me, but five or so years ago I seem to recall them playing a much more conservative defense than they do today. It's interesting, because both styles of defense are very effective in UConn's hands, yet they feel entirely different in 'character'.

When did they start to transition from set piece defense to cowboy defense? :D Was it when Stewie's class arrived, or was it Nurse's class?
It's probably been a gradual transition, and I would have guessed that MoJeff's bad-girl larcenous tendencies might have something to do with it. One UConn team stat that may be a little bit of an indicator is the sudden huge rise in steals in recent years, and it points to a bunch of other players as being the culprits in beginning the pull of UConn away from its staid conservative defensive approach in the previous decade, which in turn followed the Wild West days from 1994-95 through 2001-02 when 8 of the top 12 UConn team steals marks were set, and by a huge amount the top 3 in the seasons spanning the fall of 1997 to spring of 2000. The other four top 12 listings come from the last four completed seasons, starting one year before MoJeff, Stewie, and Tuck arrived.

The 2011-12 group is rated #4 in steals in UConn history, and it coincided with the arrival of Kiah Stokes to join Stef Dolson in organizing Swat parties, and I'm guessing that freed up the inherent kleptos Tiff Hayes, Kelly Faris, and Bria Hartley to start taking more chances to get high-return steals and develop more of a break-out offense to go with a more risk-accepting type of defense. The arrival of the MoJeff-Stewie-Tuck group the next season kept the stolen moments strategy going, and MoJeff has especially become a master of seizing the opportunities, but Stewie is octopus-women in the paint and Kia Nurse not only pilfers but is always ready to play wide receiver for a feed after a teammate's steal. The last two years Gabby has also been involved when she is on the court.

Steals are just one indicator of UConn's recent cowboy mentality, but it does seem to point to that idea because opponents are not just handing the ball over to the Huskies, and there needs to be measures taken to force them to give the ball to its proper owners.
 
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Uconn is a 25.5 point favorite tonight against Florida State
 

Kibitzer

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FSU has made 32 3's out of 97 attempts for a 33% shooting percentage and an average of 4 per game.

Wonder how many 3's FSU will attempt and make in this game.

Based solely on past performance, expect FSU to shoot about 12 and nail about 4. I have no access to the FSU game plan, which may be based on success of ND, DePaul or Colgate. FSU also has different shooters.
 
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So another game is in the books. FSU shot 38% from the field with 3/9 from distance. And they only scored 49 points. 21-7 assists, 17-7 steals, 9-1 blocks, 4 players in double figures. Dare I say what else do you want to get out of the team? Take a break for exams.
 

DobbsRover2

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So another game is in the books. FSU shot 38% from the field with 3/9 from distance. And they only scored 49 points. 21-7 assists, 17-7 steals, 9-1 blocks, 4 players in double figures. Dare I say what else do you want to get out of the team? Take a break for exams.
Typical UConn game, and most of those stats are hugely different from a typical FSU game, as UConn just imposes its will. The Huskies have passed the test for the first 8 games, and I'm sure they will do pretty well in the next exams before we all get together again 10 days hence to celebrate the solstice with the turtles.
 
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