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Per KenPom, Florida, along with Duke, are the only teams in the nation with top-ten efficiency ratings in both offense and defense, so it’s clear to see why Florida’s analytical balance makes them a high-end title contender.
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With the #1 rated offense in the nation, all five of Florida’s starters rank within the top-250 of KenPom’s Offensive Rating. The fast-paced Gators’ lacks many holes – they shoot well, limit turnovers, rebound hard…the one pedestrian aspect of their offense is their national median FTA/FGA ratio and 72 FT%, which shows that, collectively, they don’t get fouled a lot and when they do they just aight at free throw percentage – more on that later. Fun fact: outside of their two true bigs, the other seven guys in their rotation have attempted 50+ 3PAs and made 34+% of those attempts, so when they play small ball with Alex Condon at the 5 (about 22% of their rotations), they can play true five-out ball.
The defense does an excellent job forcing iso looks over smooth ball-movement and their perimeter defense is one of the best in the nation. Collectively, their interior defense isn’t as strong, but their best defenders are in their frontcourt. In terms of matchups, UConn has about a +6.5% differential in offensive rebounding vs Florida’s defensive rebounding rates, so UConn has a clear advantage in getting second-chance points opportunities. Florida’s defense is also not super aggressive in generating turnovers, so they likely will not particularly take advantage of UConn’s propensity to giving up turnovers.
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The numbers check out, but, more importantly, Florida’s roster – both in its talent and depth – is truly impressive. To quote Screen the Screener’s Gus Kearns, Florida’s got “two and a half of everything”.
Florida’s offensive punch is led by its starting backcourt, all of which were originally recruited as mid-major recruits: Clayton Jr. (Iona), Martin (FAU), Richard (Belmont).
First-Team All-American selection Walter Clayton Jr. is the perfect mix of production and efficiency. He’s more of an elite combo guard with point guard skills who possesses a dynamic mix of pure shooting, tough shot-making, and ball skills who is a quality ball-screen operator who wins with his craft, strength, creative handle, burst, and multi-level shotmaking. Not an elite defender, Clayton holds his own leveraging his physicality, quick hands, and adequate length to get stops and be disruptive both on and off the ball. At the NBA level, he might never be an All-Star, but he’ll have a long career. Diarra on Clayton Jr. all day.
With one of the best combos of strength and athleticism at the off-ball guard spot, Alijah Martin is a physical, hard-nosed two-way player who crashes the boards, moves well without the ball and can slash to the rim. As a perimeter threat and a straight line attacker, the “simplicity” of his offensive game actually pairs nicely with Solo Ball’s defensive strengths, as long as Ball’s defensive radar remains alert, especially considering Martin’s lack of length.
Will Richard is a smaller 3-guard who has a wide toolbox that lacks any soaring strengths, but also with few holes. A smart, high-IQ scorer on off-ball motion plays, Richard is also a decent scorer off-the-dribble even though he doesn’t have a great first step and isn’t the most capable finisher in traffic. Despite his 6’4-6’5 frame, Richard is rumored to have a 6’10+ wingspan, making him a versatile defender both on-ball and in space, however, there is a clear advantage if McNeeley can utilize his size.
Off the bench, Slovenian import Urban Klavzar is the team’s de facto backup point guard even though he profiles more as a floor spacer than a true point guard. Backing up the 2 and 3 is junior Denzel Aberdeen, who is a solid, versatile guard with good size, high IQ and disruptive defensive ability. He’d start for most teams in the tournament.
Florida’s four-man frontcourt can mix-and-match a bit, led by sophomore PF/C Alex Condon, who I think is one of the most underrated players in the nation. With an elite motor and ranked analytically by EvanMiya.com as Florida’s top-rated defender, the Australian is also super versatile offensively – he can shoot, pass, break down on the dribble, few players in the nation match his lunch pail grit with high-efficiency skill. He starts at the 4, but as I mentioned earlier, Condon gets small-ball minutes at the 5. Condon’s only weakness, a 61.4 FT%, so it’s not the worst idea to head to the
arcade for some Gator Panic?
Like Aberdeen, backup power forward Thomas Haugh would start for most teams in the NCAA Tournament and he plays close to starters minutes. Also a facsimile of Condon, Haugh nearly matches Condon’s skill level and versatility on both ends of the floor, but while Haugh is an excellent defender and rim protector, Haugh doesn’t possess the size and all-out toughness of Condon. I still really like him, though.
Most of Florida’s rotations feature the tag team of Rueben Chinyelu and Micah Handlogten at the 5. Chinyelu is a classic, low-post big who keeps it simple on offense and is an excellent low-post defender. Intense, physical and tough, Chinyelu has the versatility to defend both Reed and Johnson. More of a 3-and-D guy at Marshall, the massive Micah Handlogten, who redshirted for most of this year, keeps his offensive game more simple at Florida and he is also a lock-down rim protector. An average athlete for a 7’1 guy, Handlogten’s feet down low are a work-in-progress.
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