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People want to talk about a path to the tournament for this team. While I think it unlikely we get an at large bid as of today, the path for me starts with these first 3 conference games. @USF, and then home to UCF and SMU. This team is fragile as we have seen for the last 2 years, and then in spurts this year. It was so evident in the 2nd half against Nova. This team needs to get off to a fast start to have any chance. They need to build some confidence. And they need to defend their home court. Think about how much different people would feel if we had beaten Arizona at home.
As a matter of fact, it took me by surprise to see that UConn has not started 3-0 in conference play SINCE the 2003-2004 championship season.
Lets start with @USF. First true road game of the season, but at least it shouldn't be in a hostile environment. There may even be a good handful of UConn fans there. USF is much improved this year with a record of 9-2, with a home game against Fairleigh Dickinson tomorrow. They have certainly been better than expected, including an OT loss to Georgetown on a neutral court where they led by 3 in the waning seconds. They actually are ranked #90th in the NET, two spots above us. #171 in KenPom. That being said, their OOC schedule is ranked 350 out of 352 teams. Outside of Georgetown who isn't great this year anyway, they have played NO ONE. I know we have played our share of cupcakes as well, but consider out SOS is 196. I expect this game to be closer than we want because of our layoff, but I think the lack of competition will hurt USF, and we walk away with a much needed win to start conference play. With the way the NET works, beating a Top 100 team on the road will help the profile.
Next is UCF. Picked to win the league. Currently #46 in the NET, #40 in the KenPom. Another team that didn't play a great OOC schedule (ranked 282 in the country) and has a bad loss at home to Florida Atlantic on their resume. Aubrey Dawkins has played better lately, but they again like to grind you out and make you beat their half court defense. If we can get the game to speed up a bit, it takes Taco Fall out of the game. He is only averaging 23 minutes a game this year. This game is a toss up, but these are the types of games at home we have to win in our league this year to make a run. We have had success against UCF, even the last two years when we have struggled. I hope this continues.
Finally, SMU at home. #130 in the NET. #83 in KenPom. Hard team to figure out. They went 8-4 OOC, while playing another weak OOC schedule (#320). But their best player, Jarrey Foster, missed a good chunk of time recovering from an ACL injury, and they have looked better since his return, including a road win at Georgetown. They have a very balanced attack, and have a good big in Ethan Chargois. Again, a team you have to beat at home to have any chance.
As a matter of fact, it took me by surprise to see that UConn has not started 3-0 in conference play SINCE the 2003-2004 championship season.
Lets start with @USF. First true road game of the season, but at least it shouldn't be in a hostile environment. There may even be a good handful of UConn fans there. USF is much improved this year with a record of 9-2, with a home game against Fairleigh Dickinson tomorrow. They have certainly been better than expected, including an OT loss to Georgetown on a neutral court where they led by 3 in the waning seconds. They actually are ranked #90th in the NET, two spots above us. #171 in KenPom. That being said, their OOC schedule is ranked 350 out of 352 teams. Outside of Georgetown who isn't great this year anyway, they have played NO ONE. I know we have played our share of cupcakes as well, but consider out SOS is 196. I expect this game to be closer than we want because of our layoff, but I think the lack of competition will hurt USF, and we walk away with a much needed win to start conference play. With the way the NET works, beating a Top 100 team on the road will help the profile.
Next is UCF. Picked to win the league. Currently #46 in the NET, #40 in the KenPom. Another team that didn't play a great OOC schedule (ranked 282 in the country) and has a bad loss at home to Florida Atlantic on their resume. Aubrey Dawkins has played better lately, but they again like to grind you out and make you beat their half court defense. If we can get the game to speed up a bit, it takes Taco Fall out of the game. He is only averaging 23 minutes a game this year. This game is a toss up, but these are the types of games at home we have to win in our league this year to make a run. We have had success against UCF, even the last two years when we have struggled. I hope this continues.
Finally, SMU at home. #130 in the NET. #83 in KenPom. Hard team to figure out. They went 8-4 OOC, while playing another weak OOC schedule (#320). But their best player, Jarrey Foster, missed a good chunk of time recovering from an ACL injury, and they have looked better since his return, including a road win at Georgetown. They have a very balanced attack, and have a good big in Ethan Chargois. Again, a team you have to beat at home to have any chance.
