First-round NCAA upsets, by year and by seed

[Plebe]

I posted this table in the game thread, but I've since updated it with this year's results and I also added a column showing the total number of first-round "upsets" (defined as a win by the lower-seeded team) per year.

This marks the 25th year of the 64-team women's NCAA tournament, so the percentages at the bottom are nice and even.

Data entries represent the winning percentage of the higher-seeded teams (e.g., "0.75" for the 5 vs. 12 would mean that three of the #5 seeds won their first-round game).

 

[Nuyoika]

I know this is a lot to ask but is this going to be progressive through each round of the tourney... and can you add a column that indicates conference as well?

 

[Plebe]

I know this is a lot to ask but is this going to be progressive through each round of the tourney... and can you add a column that indicates conference as well?

Ha yes it's a lot to ask

I'd like to do it for subsequent rounds; we'll see.

Not sure what you mean by "a column that indicates conference"? How would one indicate conference in just a single column?

 

[Nuyoika]

Ha yes it's a lot to ask

I'd like to do it for subsequent rounds; we'll see.

Not sure what you mean by "a column that indicates conference"? How would one indicate conference in just a single column?

After looking at your sheet again I realize my request was insane lol. That is a ton of work. I will work on a sheet tomorrow. I wanted to track how certain conferences do over the long haul and the talent in the top 16. I have just been lazy lol.

 

[Kaizen]

In 1998 which #16 seed beat #1 seed? Thanks.

 

[Plebe]

After looking at your sheet again I realize my request was insane lol. That is a ton of work. I will work on a sheet tomorrow. I wanted to track how certain conferences do over the long haul and the talent in the top 16. I have just been lazy lol.

Yeah that would have to be a separate spreadsheet entirely. I'd want to track two different variables: each conference's overall winning percentage in all tournament games and their performance vis-à-vis their seeding. Certainly doable but will take some work.

 

[Vowelguy]

In 1988 which #16 seed beat #1 seed? Thanks.

98
Harvard over Stanford

 

[LETTERL]

98
Harvard over Stanford

Yes...Harvard beat Stanford. Allison Feaster was fantastic.

I have always thought that game should have an asterisk next to it. Stanford was the #1 seed, for sure, and had an outstanding season...but if I recall correctly, two of their stars were injured and did not play in that historic upset.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I have always thought that game should have an asterisk next to it. Stanford was the #1 seed, for sure, and had an outstanding season...but if I recall correctly, two of their stars were injured and did not play in that historic upset.

That is correct.

 

[bballnut90]

Yes...Harvard beat Stanford. Allison Feaster was fantastic.

I have always thought that game should have an asterisk next to it. Stanford was the #1 seed, for sure, and had an outstanding season...but if I recall correctly, two of their stars were injured and did not play in that historic upset.

Agreed. Harvard was badly underseeded and Stanford was a 21-5 team that somehow nabbed a 1 seed. They were without their best player, Kristin Folkl, who helped turn their season around. With Folkl they went 19-1, without her they went 2-5.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Agreed. Harvard was badly underseeded and Stanford was a 21-5 team that somehow nabbed a 1 seed. They were without their best player, Kristin Folkl, who helped turn their season around. With Folkl they went 19-1, without her they went 2-5.

Yes, but IIRC both the unexpected losses happened late. One in the conference tourney (which purportedly they didn't completely divulge) and the other in practice after they were seeded.

Feaster was a beast. I just heard from a friend that she went on to an almost 20 year pro career, mostly overseas.

 

[Wally East]

The sharp drop from 4 vs 13 to 5 vs 12 shows what a big difference home court makes.

Great work!

 

[maccca3232]

Here are the win % by conference for this year's tourney.

 

[maccca3232]

Here are the win% by conference for this year's tourney updated to end of second round.