First Committee Top 16

[Wbbfan1]

Don't forget they use Geography to send teams. I suspect we will get Maryland in the Bridgeport region regardless of their seeding, unless they end up as a #1 seed and can't see that happening.

The committee has Arizona State at 16 and Oregon State at 8. If seedings hold, those would be our opponents in Bridgeport. I like our chances against them. A lot!

 

[cabbie191]

I think Winthrop will end up as the final 4 seed. They are much better than that 100+ point loss to Baylor would indicate.

C'mon ETT! Baylor is a legitimately strong contender in their own right. You don't need to puff them up by reminding us of how much they whooped that powerhouse known as the Winthrop Five.

Seriously, your quip has to make the Top Ten funny posts list this year.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Don't forget they use Geography to send teams. I suspect we will get Maryland in the Bridgeport region regardless of their seeding, unless they end up as a #1 seed and can't see that happening.

Last year, we got Mississippi State, Texas, and UCLA. None of them was from the Northeast or even Mid-Atlantic.

 

[Plebe]

The committee has Arizona State at 16 and Oregon State at 8. If seedings hold, those would be our opponents in Bridgeport. I like our chances against them. A lot!

If the committee can avoid it, they won't put two top-4 seeds from the same conference in the same regional.

 

[easttexastrash]

I have to say that after that game last night that I gained a new respect for MSU. I truly thought that SC would dominate them and I couldn't have been further from the truth. I don't know if they will drop in the polls after losing that game, but if they do it should only be one spot.

 

[Phil]

They dropped two spots in Massey, which isn't what you meant, but relevant.

 

[trb123]

Maryland and Stanford are reaping what they have sown.

 

[CocoHusky]

I have to say that after that game last night that I gained a new respect for MSU. I truly thought that SC would dominate them and I couldn't have been further from the truth. I don't know if they will drop in the polls after losing that game, but if they do it should only be one spot.

Sounds like Charlie Creme agrees with you.
"Mississippi State is just 1-1, but a road loss against a top-three opponent with a couple of officiating decisions going the other way in the final moments doesn't drop the Bulldogs."
Committee's message: Don't overlook strength of schedule

 

[cabbie191]

Sounds like Charlie Creme agrees with you.
"Mississippi State is just 1-1, but a road loss against a top-three opponent with a couple of officiating decisions going the other way in the final moments doesn't drop the Bulldogs."
Committee's message: Don't overlook strength of schedule

I often wonder to what extent selection committees for both football and basketball take into consideration "outside" factors beyond win/loss records and strength of schedule.

It's often been discussed whether in basketball a late season injury to a key player in either sport should impact the selection process - my recollection is that committees generally tend to just go on the records. As a partisan Wisconsin football fan, I think the school got skunked when their only regular season losses were with Michigan and Ohio State and those games were played with key players out with injuries.

On this instance, you have to wonder whether there will any discussion that MSU would quite possibly still be undefeated had the officiating been better.

 

[CocoHusky]

I often wonder to what extent selection committees for both football and basketball take into consideration "outside" factors beyond win/loss records and strength of schedule.

It's often been discussed whether in basketball a late season injury to a key player in either sport should impact the selection process - my recollection is that committees generally tend to just go on the records. As a partisan Wisconsin football fan, I think the school got skunked when their only regular season losses were with Michigan and Ohio State and those games were played with key players out with injuries.

On this instance, you have to wonder whether there will any discussion that MSU would quite possibly still be undefeated had the officiating been better.

The committee is human, which is both good and bad, meaning they probably take into account some things the shouldn't (revenge or Alumni affiliation) and skip others that they should (geography).
The one that gets the most traction/disagreement here from @vowelguy and others is also one I'm most curious about-TV ratings. I am surrounded at work by MD fans and they think the committee is going to screw then by sending out west to tangle with Washington who knocked them out last year.

 

[Plebe]

The committee is human, which is both good and bad, meaning they probably take into account some things the shouldn't (revenge or Alumni affiliation) and skip others that they should (geography).
The one that gets the most traction/disagreement here from @vowelguy and others is also one I'm most curious about-TV ratings. I am surrounded at work by MD fans and they think the committee is going to screw then by sending out west to tangle with Washington who knocked them out last year.

So your Terrapin coworkers aren't confident their team can beat Washington?

 

[CocoHusky]

So your Terrapin coworkers aren't confident their team can beat Washington?

Some are. All were sure they would beat UCONN. Last week I was handed a ticket to MD vs. Michigan and told that they weren't going to the game because it was going to be a blowout. I took the ticket (out of spite) when to the game and it was anything but. Comfroy is still taking flack for the UCONN loss and Brenda is being lobbied to get her out of the starting lineup.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

So we will have to defeat either Syracuse or LSU (7 and 8 seeds in its region), according to Charile Creme, then Arizona State, then Oregon State. That would be the line-up in order to get to the Final Four.

Looks good for another year in the FF!

 

[chuck.r]

My arm is tired from patting myself on the back about Maryland.
I will also note that in the bracketology threads there were many who claimed that MD was a lock for a #1.

Not anymore, in fact given the low placement, its difficult to imagine Maryland rising any higher than a #2 seed. A lot of quality teams in front of them to have to jump over for that last #1 (assuming UConn, Baylor, and SC/MissSt are locks for the other 3 #1's).

 

[Phil]

It is interesting to think about what will happen to South Carolina and Mississippi State.

I initially thought that when Charlie Creme picked them both as one seeds, he may have been thinking that one of them deserved a one seed but was unable to determine which one deserve the one seed and would wait until last night's game to see who won. That's still a possibility, but clearly which of the two is better is even more unclear than before the game. South Carolina won, but at their place; even Dawn Staley said they don't win this away or on a neutral court. It's hard to imagine moving a team up in your estimation on a loss, but I think many people expected Mississippi State to get exposed and lose by a considerable margin.

If you thought both teams deserved a one seed before the game last night, you be hard-pressed to come up with a result that would better match that belief. A game that came down literally to the final possession, which might have turned out differently had a foul called been called differently, or for last-second shot had gone in. So maybe those who argue they both deserve the one seed will argue they still both deserve a one seed.

The contrary argument is that teams who deserve one seeds ought to be managed to score more than 64 points in the game, so maybe they both deserve to become two seeds.

They are likely to match up in the conference tournament championship. If they don't, by definition one will have lost earlier and probably knocked themselves out of the top line. If they do meet in the conference championship, the winner will have a strong case for a one seed but the loser a much weaker case.

 

[Vowelguy]

I believe Cteme does his bracket based on performance to date, not projecting where teams will finish. The committee top 16 is the same. Thus md still has time to impress the committee, say by crushing Ohio st. And the other teams all are capable of losing multiple games. But yes it will be very hard for MD to climb up.

The acc champ has th inside track on the 4th #1 IMHO. A PAC team running the table would also be in contention.

 

[Vowelguy]

If the committee can avoid it, they won't put two top-4 seeds from the same conference in the same regional.

Current top 16 has 5 PAC teams, hence the doubling.

But this top 16 is a challenge to bracket. With 5 PAC and 4 acc, every region has to have at least 1 from those 2 conferences. Oh and Kentucky needs (I believe) to be in the KY region. Try those constraints and putting together a balanced bracket, while also trying to keep teams near home. It's not easy.

 

[Plebe]

Current top 16 has 5 PAC teams, hence the doubling.

But this top 16 is a challenge to bracket. With 5 PAC and 4 acc, every region has to have at least 1 from those 2 conferences. Oh and Kentucky needs (I believe) to be in the KY region. Try those constraints and putting together a balanced bracket, while also trying to keep teams near home. It's not easy.

Good point. For some reason I was thinking there were only 4 Pac-12 teams in the top 16, but of course ASU is the fifth.

It almost gives me a headache whenever I read all the criteria and constraints that the committee is supposed to juggle in making the brackets.

 

[Nuyoika]

Does anyone else feel like there is not as much drama this year as expected? Like do we feel like there will be any new comers to the FF this year? I suppose Miss St possibly. I am leaning towards the idea that the tourney this year won't produce as many surprises as last year. I don't think whoever the 4 #1 seeds are they all make it to the FF together but I also don't think anyone currently ranked out of the top 16 does any real damage either. If anything I see a possible Cinderella in the mid-majors that might get some press in the initial rounds but that's about it. I loved Washington, Syracuse, & Oregon St run last year. Especially Washington they had the most ridiculous path to the FF.

 

[Plebe]

Does anyone else feel like there is not as much drama this year as expected? Like do we feel like there will be any new comers to the FF this year? I suppose Miss St possibly. I am leaning towards the idea that the tourney this year won't produce as many surprises as last year. I don't think whoever the 4 #1 seeds are they all make it to the tourney but I also don't think anyone currently ranked out of the top 16 does any real damage either. If anything I see a possible Cinderella in the mid-majors that might get some press in the initial rounds but that's about it.

Where was the drama supposed to come from in January?

Last year, Notre Dame, South Carolina, and Baylor were all heavily favored to get to the Final Four. ND and SC each had lost to no one except UConn, and Baylor had lost only one game without Niya Johnson. And people thought that if there was going to be a spoiler to the #1 seeds, it would be Maryland.

 

[Nuyoika]

Where was the drama supposed to come from in January?

Last year, Notre Dame, South Carolina, and Baylor were all heavily favored to get to the Final Four. ND and SC each had lost to no one except UConn, and Baylor had lost only one game without Niya Johnson. And people thought that if there was going to be a spoiler to the #1 seeds, it would be Maryland.

I am still pissed at Brenda for that.... she completely DESTROYED my bracket... I suppose I am restless. Other than the PAC 12 I don't think there's any doubt who is winning each of the major conferences. I thought this year there would be more surprises. I have been pleased with some of the new comers to the top 25 but I just don't feel like this years Top 25 is as good or deep as last years if that makes any sense. I began the year thinking there's like 12 true teams who have the stuff to win it all. Each month I am less sure about that.

 

[Alydar]

If MD was being punished for their OOC schedule what about MSSt, a team who's OOC schedule include exactly 2 Massey top 50 teams?

 

[Plebe]

I am still pissed at Brenda for that.... she completely DESTROYED my bracket... I suppose I am restless. Other than the PAC 12 I don't think there's any doubt who is winning each of the major conferences. I thought this year there would be more surprises. I have been pleased with some of the new comers to the top 25 but I just don't feel like this years Top 25 is as good or deep as last years if that makes any sense. I began the year thinking there's like 12 true teams who have the stuff to win it all. Each month I am less sure about that.

I think that hegemony in the ACC is far from established at this point.

I think Mississippi State has been a pleasant surprise. I didn't even think they'd be a top-10 team, but they clearly are. Oregon State has also exceeded most people's expectations. So has Duke. And for teams that have "surprised" us by underperforming relative to expectations, we have the likes of Ohio State, Syracuse, and Tennessee.

 

[Nuyoika]

If MD was being punished for their OOC schedule what about MSSt, a team who's OOC schedule include exactly 2 Massey top 50 teams?

Is their overall SOS better than Marylands? It may be because they play in the SEC..."the toughest conference in America" and so on and so forth. You have to remember you can get away with scheduling cupcakes in OOC if your conference RPI is good. Just ask Mulkey she has the exact formula for this somewhere in a safe. You just gotta know which years to do it.

 

[Alydar]

Is their overall SOS better than Marylands? It may be because they play in the SEC..."the toughest conference in America" and so on and so forth. You have to remember you can get away with scheduling cupcakes in OOC if your conference RPI is good. Just ask Mulkey she has the exact formula for this somewhere in a safe. You just gotta know which years to do it.

I agree with you but when people start using words like punish it should be about things those being punished have some control over. Teams don't get to pick their conference. For all the teams they get into the dance the SEC never gets too many past the second round. And IMO when it comes to seeding the top 16 a team's record against each other a key factor should be how they did vs each other.

 

[CocoHusky]

I agree with you but when people start using words like punish it should be about things those being punished have some control over. Teams don't get to pick their conference. For all the teams they get into the dance the SEC never gets too many past the second round. And IMO when it comes to seeding the top 16 a team's record against each other a key factor should be how they did vs each other.

The punishment was specifically for the out of conference schedule. Teams have full control over their out of conference schedule. MD when out of their way to play a joke of a schedule including
UMass Lowell
Maryland Eastern Shore
Mount St. Mary's
Niagara
UMBC
Towson
Saint Peter's
Loyola (Md.)

 

[Vowelguy]

Before last night, Miss St was #4 in RPI. Maryland #18.

 

[Plebe]

If MD was being punished for their OOC schedule what about MSSt, a team who's OOC schedule include exactly 2 Massey top 50 teams?

Nonconference SOS: Maryland #152, Miss St #59
Overall SOS: Maryland #85, Miss St #22

MSU's OOC was not a lot to brag about but it was still better than Maryland's by a long country mile. Also, MSU plays in a much tougher conference than Maryland does.

 

[triaddukefan]

I think that hegemony in the ACC is far from established at this point.

I think Mississippi State has been a pleasant surprise. I didn't even think they'd be a top-10 team, but they clearly are. Oregon State has also exceeded most people's expectations. So has Duke. And for teams that have "surprised" us by underperforming relative to expectations, we have the likes of Ohio State, Syracuse, and Tennessee.

Along way to go in the regular season, but I thought Syracuse would be about 5th in the ACC. And you are correct... the race for the ACC is far from over. NC State has the tiebreaker over ND, FSU, and Duke.

 

[Alydar]

Nonconference SOS: Maryland #152, Miss St #59
Overall SOS: Maryland #85, Miss St #22

MSU's OOC was not a lot to brag about but it was still better than Maryland's by a long country mile. Also, MSU plays in a much tougher conference than Maryland does.

MD beat Ariz St on a neutral court and beat Louisville on the road. And they stayed within 10 against UConn. Miss St beat Texas at home and lost the only quality team they faced on the road. They both beat everyone else and IMO all those games are meaningless in determining who is the better team. Massey ranks MD 6th and Miss St 7th virtually tied by the numbers. They use an algorithm so there is no prejudice toward any conference. Now I am not saying how each should be seeded but making MSSt a one seed while making MD a three seed is way too big a gap.

SOS is not much of a measure of a team's strength. It's fine to break a tie between two teams but my eyes tell me that MD is a better team than even S Carolina, never mind Miss St. Don't let a close game between two SEC teams fool you. MD's offense would defeat Miss St's defense. Remember, most everyone thought they had a dominant defense last year, mostly based on the rest of the SEC not being able to score against them. But we all saw that paper tiger exposed in the S16.

Many are buying what ESPN said, that MD was downgraded because of their schedule. But remember that ESPN has a vested interest in seeing SEC teams in the spotlight and little interest in having teams whose games are on BTN or the PAC12 Network be in the spotlight.