Nice post. Largely agree with just a few comments on the stuff I quoted above: regarding #3 - I think you'd have to add Meme Jackson as a success story - a starter at SG/PG this season, she was only ranked 49 by HG and seems to be playing really well.
You mentioned Tenn underperforming over the past 10 years but Holly has only been the HC for 6-7 years. I realize Pat's disease may well have affected her towards the end, but did you mean to say that she was underachieving and not developing talent her last 3 seasons?
If you look at the number of top 5-6 recruits in the past 5 cycles it looks something like this:
UCONN and Texas both with 6
Tenn 3
ND and Baylor 2
L'ville, Oregon, MSU, aTm, MD, FSU, SC, UCLA and OSU all with 1 player each.
In a way that sort of disproves the comment by UCONN fans that UCONN doesn't get ALL the best players. Well... we may not get all of them, but we have more than any other program not named Texas. For ND I included transfer in Shephard and deducted transfer out Boley. For Tenn I included Russell who was a RS from the class before Nared, who was also top 5-6 along with Westbrook.
Jackson is a lot better than she was last year, but if she's a top success story for Holly, that's a bad sign. In Holly's defense, I thought she did a fantastic job with Isabelle Harrison before the ACL.
I'd consider 2012 as Holly's team more than Pat's based on how involved Holly was vs. Pat. Holly would lead huddles and seemed to be in charge. Pat definitely wasn't fully there that year.
I actually thought Tennessee and Pat did a great job in 2010 and 2011. Going into the tournament, they were expected to make the Final Four but were upset by a Griner led Baylor team and a Notre Dame team who ended Maya Moore's career. Both games were competitive and Tennessee battled. No shame in either loss. Both years they were #1 seeds and went 32-3 and 34-3....quite a bit different than modern day where Tennessee has lost 4 of their last 6 games and is trying to avoid their third consecutive double digit loss season. Players like Stricklen and Johnson were standouts both seasons and made big improvements under Pat. I thought Cain did too--she was exceptional in 2010 before getting injured. Brewer made big strides too before the weird candle stick injury. Bjorklund never developed into the player I hoped she'd become, and Baugh's injuries really held her back. In 2009 it's fair to say they underachieved, but her roster was literally all freshmen, a sophomore and a RS senior. They graduated 5 starters and lost 2 projected starters (McMahan and Baugh) in the offseason. It was an ugly season. I was impressed with how much better Tennessee was in 2010 and 2011 with essentially the same roster. So to answer that question, no I don't think Pat was underachieving her last 3 years of coaching.
Any way the recruiting rankings are analyzed, I think UCONN comes out solidly ahead of any other program. There are almost always 2 number 1 recruits on the team along with several other top players.
Possibly the biggest factor that hasn't been pointed out is that UCONN's top recruits all have a clear path for playing time at UCONN. There's almost always a perfect void for them to fill in either their freshman or sophomore seasons, and in turn they become double figure scorers by their sophomore season. If you look at the last several top 5 kids, you have:
Dangerfield who slid into Chong's role as a sophomore, became a double figure scorer
Collier who slid into Tuck's role as a sophomore, became a 20ppg scorer
KLS who slid into KML's role as a 3pt shooter, not sure if she was over 10 as a frosh but averaged 20ppg as a sophomore
Jefferson who took over PG duties as a sophomore, double digit scorer
Tuck who took replaced Dolson in the front court...different role than Dolson, but became a double digit scorer as a RS soph
Nurse who took over Hartley's role as the combo guard...averaged close to 10ppg her first 2 years.
Next year Walker likely slides into a starting role and will be averaging double digits. In 2019-20, C. Williams likely steps into the starting lineup with the graduation of KLS, and ONO starts in the front court with the graduation Stevens/Collier. It's great planning by Geno and a great way to maximize the effectiveness of his players. Geno recruits some players who will likely never be starters or major contributors (ex. Irwin/Bent) but will be good teammates and hard workers to help push the top players. I'm guessing these players are great for keeping intensity high and the overall vibe positive. I'd much rather have that environment on the bench than having top 10 players po'd that they aren't getting playing time.
On the flip side, at Texas, sure they're loaded up with top 5 kids, but it's not balanced. You have the #4 overall recruit as a third string PG and the #3 overall recruit who can't break the rotation. Patterson has Sutton (2016 #6 PG) and the reigning Big 12 POY(McCarty) ahead of her.
Boothe has been a bust so far and seems to have her own battles, but she also is competing against RS Jr White (2014 #7) and Holmes (2016 #2) for playing time. Next year she'll be battling with those 2, plus Collier and Prince. At least 2 top 10 kids will not make the rotation. They have more top 10 players than anyone, but I don't think having Patterson/Boothe on the team is necessarily a great asset if both are on the bench and potentially not pleased with playing time.
Baylor and SC have also overloaded their frontcourt at times with good players, and Tennessee did too when they had Harrison/Graves/Russell all competing. Interestingly, SC and Tennessee both looked better once they lost their top center, Coates and Harrison. It allowed better spacing offensively for SC and Davis became much more effective in their new system. Same thing at Tennessee but it was Graves who shined in Harrison's absence. Actually, same at Baylor too...Davis was a much more effective player without a physical big like Brown playing. The only programs that seem to usually recruit well without overloading certain positions are Notre Dame, Connecticut and Stanford. You almost never see these programs overload their roster with top 10 kids. UCONN can overload their roster with players in the 10-50 range, but those players usually find a role or end up transferring out.
And last comment--Michigan State technically has 2 players if you count Taya Reimer (and Sidney Cooks).
