Final Four Team? | The Boneyard

Final Four Team?

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We all remember that last year’s team with basically six players that came within a whisker of defeating Iowa and making it to the NCAA finals. With a loaded roster of 14 players for this season, the expectation of many of us was that this was going to be our season to win the 12th national crown. The results thus far have been disappointing with two losses against the team’s most formidable opponents.

Our vaunted depth has proven to be much less than anticipated. The Huskies started with 14 players, but 3 (Ducharme, Patterson, and Griffin) are out, 1 has had an injury ridden career (Fudd), and 2 (Samuels and Ziebel) are not currently part of the rotation. We are left then with 2 superb players (Bueckers and Strong), 1 5th year senior who has been inconsistent (Chen), 2 “centers” (Brady and El Afry) who have not performed up to expectations and were non-factors against USC, and 3 serviceable players (Arnold, Chelli, Shade).

The optimists say, wait until Fudd and Griffin get back. Unfortunately, Azzi has been injured and unable to play for much of her UConn career and can we really expect that we will finally see her healthy enough to play to her potential? Griffin has lost two years to injury and we can hope, but can we expect, that when she returns that she will be the player that she has been in the past? Here are two big question marks.

Second, the team does not have a reliable center and we can only hope that beating up a series of weak Big East teams will help rectify this problem. Yes, El Afry is only a first year player and Brady is a sophomore with not a great deal of experience, but I remember freshmen Tina Charles and Stephanie Dolson who had much stronger first years.

Third, our team’s defense against the three against both Notre Dame and Southern California has been abysmal. How many open threes have these two opponents hit against our Huskies? Far too many. While on the other hand, both of these teams have been effective in defending the three. Both games were lost because of the team’s inability to hit long range shots.

Although the Huskies had a chance to win both games, in both, our opponents were the better teams and their best player out played our best player due to ND and USC’s strong defensive work against Bueckers.

Can the situation be turned around? The games at Tennessee and at South Carolina in February will answer this question. And the answer is, of course, yes, BUT, the team’s defense and rebounding must improve, the Huskies will have to be able to score from long range, there has to be marked improvement of the inside game, and we need more than two reliable scorers. If, and it is a big if, both Fudd and Griffin return to full strength, then a final four and national championship become real possibilities, otherwise?
 
If they can't win big games then no, they aren't a FF four team. But as many have said, many times in fact, in multiple threads, there's a long way to go until March/April.

Edit: Actually I think if they gel a little bit better they've got a good shot; communicate better on the floor and really know what they want to do with the ball. Picking up the dribble too soon is a recipe for disaster. But they have to start winning these big games, and not shooting themselves in the foot w/slow starts.
 
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We all are hoping for great things with the return of Fudd & Griffin. However, it may take some time for them to get acclimated to playing in live game action. That said, they have 3 months until March to get their games back up to their potential..............I have faith.
 
I read the loss to USC rather differently than you do, I suspect. We came back from a devastating first half and almost won in the final seconds. That says final four team to me.
I tend to agree. We were down 18 and came back because we pressed and up tempoed, if there is such a word. A flawed or only average team would not be able to do that. I'm convinced we have to press every game. We have the guards for that and then there is Aubrey who was our best defender on the press. It gets us going and warms up people like Ash in a hurry. It's easier to spread the floor in a faster game, you get transition baskets and our players with a nose for the hoop like Sarah, Paige and Azzi, have one on one situations. Bobby Knight often said that the single most important thing in basketball is spacing. That's what we need and you get it more often with a pressing, high speed game.
 
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I think the addition of a healthy Azzi and a healthy Aubrey will give us a much different perspective. They bring lots of experience and skill, on both sides of the court. We certainly may decide to play smaller, but we’ll be faster.
 
Getting to a final four was always going to be difficult
So Carolina Notre dame usc ucla Texas and maybe
LSU are all possible Nat Championship caliber teams whose talent is equal or greater than UConn
odds are UConn was going to have
To play one of those teams to get to a final four
With the games left on the schedule a 2 seed is not guaranteed
With a healthy Azzi and hopefully AG at 100 percent the team could look very different and hopefully significantly better
Wcbb has changed and you can no longer pencil in teams. You think will go to the final four.
The Nd and USC games were a barometer
Of what it will take to get to a final four
 
It's doubtful right now the way they played against ND and USC..a lot of posters have brought up how things will change with a healthy AG and Azzi..maybe but how much can you expect from Aubrey after not playing for 2 years.she wasn't a great offensive player to begin with but a good rebounder and defender..Azzi how can they rely on her when just a little bump on her knee brings her out for a few games..not her fault since she's had bad knee's since high school...what people don't seem to understand is that other teams will be getting better too
USC with their great freshman class and what about ND when Watson,Karlan and most importantly Wesbeld get back..they may destroy everyone
For Uconn to have a chance Paige has to play like the best player in the country..she can't have 3 rebounds and 2 assists like she had against USC and ND..poster's complain she's always being held or bumped well look what Uconn did to Watkins the other night or what CC had to deal with all last year..the elite ones battle through it
People say those 2 teams won't shoot like that again..well ND leads the nation in 3 point shooting
All is not lost though..Uconn is one of the top 6 or 7 teams in the nation..an encouraging sign was that USC only rebounded Uconn by 1 of course that was mostly because of Sara..as good as she is now what will she look like at the end of the year..she could possibly surpass HH and JuJu as the best player in the nation and carry Uconn to #12
 
I think the addition of a healthy Azzi and a healthy Aubrey will give us a much different perspective. They bring lots of experience and skill, on both sides of the court. We certainly may decide to play smaller, but we’ll be faster.
If Azzi and Aubrey can play healthy from January on, we will be a different team than what we’ve seen so far. The rotation has felt short for Nov-Dec with just KK and Jana coming off the bench in contested time. Now with Morgan getting major minutes, add in Azzi and Aubrey and the team looks a lot different. All those folks who want to see a high energy defense and maybe even a press, this is the personnel for it. Incoming!
 
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Fact, we are not close to being the team most of us hoped we would be right out of the gate. We were delusional in our early assessment of our players and team, we are not yet that group of players. I believe that we are on the way, we do have 4 first year players now getting minutes, give them time to get used to BB under the greatest coach in WCBB. Things are and will continue to fall in place. We will get better. We will compete for the ultimate title. How far will we go? Trust in Geno and Paige.
 
I read the loss to USC rather differently than you do, I suspect. We came back from a devastating first half and almost won in the final seconds. That says final four team to me.
But when the game was on the line they stopped doing what got them back in the game. Why??
 
They are absolutely a potential Final Four team. UConn always has the best roster, if not the best player so talent isn't holding them back as much as developing the post players. Ice has not played the way I thought she might and Jana hasn't really been given the keys yet so I don't know what to think of her.

What I do know is they are not starting their best 5 players and they rely heavily on Paige and Sarah to offset the weaknesses of the other players. To win they will need a good post player and two othe players that are consistently good to go with the stars. Good news is they play in a very weak conference so they will have time to develop what they need to be a power.
 
I'm not worried. I think they have all the tools as they are currently constituted, and injury returns only help. Getting the posts dialed in will make a big difference. Think back to the Celtic teams with Bird and McHale; Parish didn't need to score much, only to defend lights out, same with the Russell teams. Just make four to six layups a game, rebound and defend, and the other team can't hang on the guards. In my own mind, which fortunately no one listens to, one key is to get the third or fourth scoring option a couple of early baskets to get the opposition realizing doubling one player is a mistake. We're really close to doing that consistently, and in a month, we'll be well able to go to the final four, seeding will be irrelevant.
 
I believe we are a final four team for sure but it does matter who is in our bracket. But as someone said earlier, with a healthy Azzi and Aubrey, we can beat anyone in a tournament setting. The women just need to grow mentally throughout the rest of the season because I think they are too nice and need to be mean and tough. Knock someone down, hit first basically, but I liked the formula Geno used the second half against USC, it can work but to play short, they need to be even more mentally tough, Audrey brings some of that. If they are not tentative and everyone is on their game, who’s gonna beat them? Imagine, Paige, Azzi, Shade, Morgan, Chen, KK, Aubrey and Sarah all doing what they do best and active defensively. Jana giving a few tough minutes for big rebounds because that’s all we need from her. I don’t think there is any team that can compete with that. Notre Dame and UCLA will be the toughest competition but if we play to our potential, I think we win. USC and South Carolina can be a problem if we are tentative and off. I was more discouraged before the USC game.
 
Last year I thought we could lose in the round of 32. And Syracuse tried very very hard to make it happen. But we made it to the FF and lost in the final seconds. And arguably we had a very tough path. We played Syracuse, Duke, USC -- only to meet Iowa in the FF.

Last year in the regular season we lost to:

  • NC State (92-81)
  • UCLA (78-67)
  • Texas (80-68)
  • Notre Dame (82-67)
  • South Carolina (83-65)

Our two losses this year have been to ND (79-68) and USC (72-70). I do not anticipate us getting three more losses this year and looking at the box scores/stats, it appears to me that we are playing even to or possibly slightly better than last year.

Let's compare sort of equivalent games from December. Last year in the Texas (#10) game, for example, we were only down 14 at the half but then lost by 12 (but we shot 44% from 3pt!). Compare this to the USC (#7) game we just played where we shot 29% from the arc but only lost by 2. We committed fewer PFs and TOs against USC this year versus Texas last year.

Last year against Texas we shot better % across the board (FG/3PT/FT) and also held Texas to lower % (compared to USC). In the Texas game, UConn committed 2 more PFs than Texas vs USC, where they committed 2 LESS. Looking at TOs, against Texas we committed 21 (they had 9). Against USC this year we committed 13 (they committed 18).

2023 Texas - Edwards (22 points), Paige (13 points), Nika/KK (9 points)
2024 USC - Paige (22 points), Sarah (22 points), Shade (9 points)

We had only one player against Texas who scored 0 points (Aubrey). Against USC we had two players with 0 points (Azzi and Ice).

.... I was going somewhere with all this data but then I got lost in the weeds.

TL;DR we should at least make the E8 and I think it will be considered a disappointing season if we don't make at the FF.
 
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I think Geno should play the psychology game with our bigs like he did to Tina in her junior year. He said, along the line, “we are not a good team because we don’t have a center.” And I hope Ice and Jana would take it personally like Tina did. We know Paige and Sarah have been terrific, but we’ll need our two bigs play much better BOTH ends in the paint if we want to go deep in March/April.
 
I believe we are a final four team for sure but it does matter who is in our bracket. But as someone said earlier, with a healthy Azzi and Aubrey, we can beat anyone in a tournament setting. The women just need to grow mentally throughout the rest of the season because I think they are too nice and need to be mean and tough. Knock someone down, hit first basically, but I liked the formula Geno used the second half against USC, it can work but to play short, they need to be even more mentally tough, Audrey brings some of that. If they are not tentative and everyone is on their game, who’s gonna beat them? Imagine, Paige, Azzi, Shade, Morgan, Chen, KK, Aubrey and Sarah all doing what they do best and active defensively. Jana giving a few tough minutes for big rebounds because that’s all we need from her. I don’t think there is any team that can compete with that. Notre Dame and UCLA will be the toughest competition but if we play to our potential, I think we win. USC and South Carolina can be a problem if we are tentative and off. I was more discouraged before the USC game.
When both teams are healthy Uconn falls short of ND not even that close., Azzi and Aubrey come back while ND gets back 3 bigs in Watson, Westbeld and Karlan..Westbeld as she showed last tear can play all over and they have one orf the best defenders in wcbb in Citron{ask Paige) a 3rd team AA in Miles ,a 1st team AA and probably POY in HH,and an all ACC player in King..the best roster when healthy in the nation
That being said I think Uconn could beat UCLA ...USC,SC,Texas,and LSU is 50/50 so it definitely matters who is in their bracket
 
The team needs Azzi and Aubrey. Still stunned of Geno's coments of saying he needs more post scoring calling out JEA as one of them in which he only gave her 6 minutes. How is she going to score if you only play her 6 minutes? With that said, imo JEA and Ice are not an answer to have to rely on scoring this year. Let's be real. They would be going against other potential-all-americans, and/or pros and/or 4th and 5th year seniors etc. To believe you can dump the ball down low to them and say "Here you can score now," vs the above mentioned talent is not realistic. You can't win by trying to stick to a formula that "you must have low post scoring," when two of the players you want to score aren't good enough vs the other elite competetion. Please note other players on other teams get better too (offensively and defensively). Not just UCONN players.

For one thing is that they have to stop getting blitzed in the 1st half. One more consistent scorer in Azzi and one more prime defender in Aubrey should help in these cases.
 
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I think Geno should play the psychology game with our bigs like he did to Tina in her junior year. He said, along the line, “we are not a good team because we don’t have a center.” And I hope Ice and Jana would take it personally like Tina did. We know Paige and Sarah have been terrific, but we’ll need our two bigs play much better BOTH ends in the paint if we want to go deep in March/April.
Tina Charles was a good center her frosh year. If you recall as a freshman Tina matched Sylvia Fowles in their reg season head-to-head. In Tina's frosh year she was Honorable Mention All_Amercian. In her soph year she was 3rd Team All-Amercan. This is not close vs Ice and Jana.
 
Thinking forward to the FF is a bit much for me right now, as I'm hoping that Geno and staff use the BE games to tinker and tool with lineups, defenses, and give some of the younger, less experienced players some situations where they can improve and get a lot of repetitions. Yes, success against lesser (shorter?) teams isn't a panacea, however it provides real game time scenarios. The other reason to not get caught up in FF projections is to look at last year's rankings and bracketology, from preseason to the final. And yes, rankings and bracketology in the early season are less eye tests, and a bit more of bias, IMHO.

AP Rankings showed South Caroline being the most consistent from preseason to final ranking. Iowa was next, and UConn and NCSU seemed to be mirroring each other until week 17. I added USC and Texas, as they were the other #1 seeds in the tourney.
1734982863703.jpeg


Pre-season Bracketology showed 3 of the 4 teams in the top 16. NCSU came out of nowhere after beating UConn early in the season. SC started at a 2 seed and finished at a 1 and won it all. UConn started at a 1 and ended a 3, and after 11/28, dropped out of the top 16 until 1/2.
1734982003106.jpeg

Bottom line, there will be a lot of movement in the top 16, as parity is now a normal thing.
 
If this team gets Azzi and Aubrey back in at least solid form this could easily be a FF squad. Without them it would require at least one other player stepping up and putting up good numbers.

There is a lot of teeth gnashing about Jana and Ice. Hope springs eternal but prior to the start of the season most believed Jana would be a major force. Post players generally take more time to develop. She looks to me almost like Betts during her first year at Stanford. The tools appear to be there but she's not quite ready to be a major contributor. It will likely get better.

I hate the injury bug almost as much as the UConn fans because I don't like to see anyone get hurt and most of those ladies on the bench have experienced multiple setbacks during the last few years that have impacted the overall team performance.

Geno is still Geno and he will have this team ready. Will it be enough? There is more talent all around the sport now which is largely a good thing but it makes the FF less of a certainty for almost anyone.
 
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but I liked the formula Geno used the second half against USC, it can work but to play short, they need to be even more mentally tough, Audrey brings some of that.
Geno had UConn play short, if you will, because his 2 bigs were doing nothing; no offense or defense. For UConn to have a chance to win it all, one of them has to improve. Both need to just catch, pivot and shoot without hesitation. I think Jana has much more potential (and height), so I’m more optimistic with her. On defense, both need to resist any temptation to block a shot- just raise hands straight in air and concentrate on boxing out and getting rebound.
 
Tina Charles was a good center her frosh year. If you recall as a freshman Tina matched Sylvia Fowles in their reg season head-to-head. In Tina's frosh year she was Honorable Mention All_Amercian. In her soph year she was 3rd Team All-Amercan. This is not close vs Ice and Jana.
I didn’t say Tina wasn’t a good center, nor did I try to compare Ice and Jana to Tina’s first two years. I just mentioned what Geno said to Tina in her junior year made her a much better player for the rest of her time at Uconn. Any competitive great players take it to heart when their coaches call them out. I guess what I was trying to say is Geno and CD should find the buttons on our two bigs and press them HARD. The question is could Jana and Ice want to be pressed and what would they do about it.

I know this year is only Jana’s first year playing and Ice’s second year, and I also know that it takes longer for the bigs to develop than the guards, but still, I expect to see more from those two, especially Ice. She had done so well in last year’s BE tournament.
 
They are absolutely a potential Final Four team. UConn always has the best roster, if not the best player so talent isn't holding them back as much as developing the post players. Ice has not played the way I thought she might and Jana hasn't really been given the keys yet so I don't know what to think of her.

What I do know is they are not starting their best 5 players and they rely heavily on Paige and Sarah to offset the weaknesses of the other players. To win they will need a good post player and two othe players that are consistently good to go with the stars. Good news is they play in a very weak conference so they will have time to develop what they need to be a power.
Saying “UConn always has the best roster”
Is inaccurate
Hanna Hildago and Juju Watkins were clearly the best players on the floor
Also would take the opposite view that a weak conference helps the team develop
 
It's a fair question. As the roster stands now, no we are not. Having said that, getting Azzi back will help. Then Aubrey in January. We will be a different team come March. Every team in the nation will be improving, just like we will, but one potential thing that sets us apart is that we add some terrific pieces - one offensive, one defensive - in the next month.

Keep in mind that against ND, we had no Azzi. Ash started, played 21 minutes, scored 0 points and went 0-5. A lot of things hurt us, but that was among the worst in our attempted comeback... ND killed is in Q4 when we got close...

Keep in mind that people will "ooh and aah" as we roll thru the big east slaughtering a very weak conference, and we faced the hardest portion of our schedule already. We will know a lot more about this team IF Azzi and Aubrey come back 100% and can contribute in the way fans know they are capable of. IF they can and do, I like our chances. If not, then I say we bow out in the elite 8...
 
It's a fair question. As the roster stands now, no we are not. Having said that, getting Azzi back will help. Then Aubrey in January. We will be a different team come March. Every team in the nation will be improving, just like we will, but one potential thing that sets us apart is that we add some terrific pieces - one offensive, one defensive - in the next month.

Keep in mind that against ND, we had no Azzi. Ash started, played 21 minutes, scored 0 points and went 0-5. A lot of things hurt us, but that was among the worst in our attempted comeback... ND killed is in Q4 when we got close...

Keep in mind that people will "ooh and aah" as we roll thru the big east slaughtering a very weak conference, and we faced the hardest portion of our schedule already. We will know a lot more about this team IF Azzi and Aubrey come back 100% and can contribute in the way fans know they are capable of. IF they can and do, I like our chances. If not, then I say we bow out in the elite 8...
I agree that what we do in the big east won’t necessarily impress me at all. I would like to see the team become more cohesive and gain some mental toughness. Also see if Ice and Jana can gain some knowledge or confidence about what this team needs from them. In the limited time against USC I liked what I saw from Jana. Maybe Geno knew that we needed more offensively and she wouldn’t provide that in our comeback attempt. I do think she can be a reliable rebounder for us down the road. I also think Ice may join the party also but I’m not sure it will be this year. I think they both can and will help us in a big tourney win, but I think the USC lineup should be our primary lineup going forward
 
I am usually the first to hammer our 3 point defense, but in the USC postgame press conference Geno made an interesting comment. HE said something to the effect, "Our strategy was to focus on their (USC/ND) stars and make their role players take 3's and beat us. And when they make the (open) shots, we are in trouble".

It sounds like it might be more of a failure of strategy (by the coaching staff), rather than failure of execution (by the team).
 
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