Final Four Team? | The Boneyard

Final Four Team?

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We all remember that last year’s team with basically six players that came within a whisker of defeating Iowa and making it to the NCAA finals. With a loaded roster of 14 players for this season, the expectation of many of us was that this was going to be our season to win the 12th national crown. The results thus far have been disappointing with two losses against the team’s most formidable opponents.

Our vaunted depth has proven to be much less than anticipated. The Huskies started with 14 players, but 3 (Ducharme, Patterson, and Griffin) are out, 1 has had an injury ridden career (Fudd), and 2 (Samuels and Ziebel) are not currently part of the rotation. We are left then with 2 superb players (Bueckers and Strong), 1 5th year senior who has been inconsistent (Chen), 2 “centers” (Brady and El Afry) who have not performed up to expectations and were non-factors against USC, and 3 serviceable players (Arnold, Chelli, Shade).

The optimists say, wait until Fudd and Griffin get back. Unfortunately, Azzi has been injured and unable to play for much of her UConn career and can we really expect that we will finally see her healthy enough to play to her potential? Griffin has lost two years to injury and we can hope, but can we expect, that when she returns that she will be the player that she has been in the past? Here are two big question marks.

Second, the team does not have a reliable center and we can only hope that beating up a series of weak Big East teams will help rectify this problem. Yes, El Afry is only a first year player and Brady is a sophomore with not a great deal of experience, but I remember freshmen Tina Charles and Stephanie Dolson who had much stronger first years.

Third, our team’s defense against the three against both Notre Dame and Southern California has been abysmal. How many open threes have these two opponents hit against our Huskies? Far too many. While on the other hand, both of these teams have been effective in defending the three. Both games were lost because of the team’s inability to hit long range shots.

Although the Huskies had a chance to win both games, in both, our opponents were the better teams and their best player out played our best player due to ND and USC’s strong defensive work against Bueckers.

Can the situation be turned around? The games at Tennessee and at South Carolina in February will answer this question. And the answer is, of course, yes, BUT, the team’s defense and rebounding must improve, the Huskies will have to be able to score from long range, there has to be marked improvement of the inside game, and we need more than two reliable scorers. If, and it is a big if, both Fudd and Griffin return to full strength, then a final four and national championship become real possibilities, otherwise?
 
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If they can't win big games then no, they aren't a FF four team. But as many have said, many times in fact, in multiple threads, there's a long way to go until March/April.

Edit: Actually I think if they gel a little bit better they've got a good shot; communicate better on the floor and really know what they want to do with the ball. Picking up the dribble too soon is a recipe for disaster. But they have to start winning these big games, and not shooting themselves in the foot w/slow starts.
 
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I read the loss to USC rather differently than you do, I suspect. We came back from a devastating first half and almost won in the final seconds. That says final four team to me.
 
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We all are hoping for great things with the return of Fudd & Griffin. However, it may take some time for them to get acclimated to playing in live game action. That said, they have 3 months until March to get their games back up to their potential..............I have faith.
 
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I read the loss to USC rather differently than you do, I suspect. We came back from a devastating first half and almost won in the final seconds. That says final four team to me.
I tend to agree. We were down 18 and came back because we pressed and up tempoed, if there is such a word. A flawed or only average team would not be able to do that. I'm convinced we have to press every game. We have the guards for that and then there is Aubrey who was our best defender on the press. It gets us going and warms up people like Ash in a hurry. It's easier to spread the floor in a faster game, you get transition baskets and our players with a nose for the hoop like Sarah, Paige and Azzi, have one on one situations. Bobby Knight often said that the single most important thing in basketball is spacing. That's what we need and you get it more often with a pressing, high speed game.
 
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I think the addition of a healthy Azzi and a healthy Aubrey will give us a much different perspective. They bring lots of experience and skill, on both sides of the court. We certainly may decide to play smaller, but we’ll be faster.
 
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Getting to a final four was always going to be difficult
So Carolina Notre dame usc ucla Texas and maybe
LSU are all possible Nat Championship caliber teams whose talent is equal or greater than UConn
odds are UConn was going to have
To play one of those teams to get to a final four
With the games left on the schedule a 2 seed is not guaranteed
With a healthy Azzi and hopefully AG at 100 percent the team could look very different and hopefully significantly better
Wcbb has changed and you can no longer pencil in teams. You think will go to the final four.
The Nd and USC games were a barometer
Of what it will take to get to a final four
 
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I think the addition of a healthy Azzi and a healthy Aubrey will give us a much different perspective. They bring lots of experience and skill, on both sides of the court. We certainly may decide to play smaller, but we’ll be faster.
If Azzi and Aubrey can play healthy from January on, we will be a different team than what we’ve seen so far. The rotation has felt short for Nov-Dec with just KK and Jana coming off the bench in contested time. Now with Morgan getting major minutes, add in Azzi and Aubrey and the team looks a lot different. All those folks who want to see a high energy defense and maybe even a press, this is the personnel for it. Incoming!
 

MooseJaw

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Fact, we are not close to being the team most of us hoped we would be right out of the gate. We were delusional in our early assessment of our players and team, we are not yet that group of players. I believe that we are on the way, we do have 4 first year players now getting minutes, give them time to get used to BB under the greatest coach in WCBB. Things are and will continue to fall in place. We will get better. We will compete for the ultimate title. How far will we go? Trust in Geno and Paige.
 
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I read the loss to USC rather differently than you do, I suspect. We came back from a devastating first half and almost won in the final seconds. That says final four team to me.
But when the game was on the line they stopped doing what got them back in the game. Why??
 
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They are absolutely a potential Final Four team. UConn always has the best roster, if not the best player so talent isn't holding them back as much as developing the post players. Ice has not played the way I thought she might and Jana hasn't really been given the keys yet so I don't know what to think of her.

What I do know is they are not starting their best 5 players and they rely heavily on Paige and Sarah to offset the weaknesses of the other players. To win they will need a good post player and two othe players that are consistently good to go with the stars. Good news is they play in a very weak conference so they will have time to develop what they need to be a power.
 
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I'm not worried. I think they have all the tools as they are currently constituted, and injury returns only help. Getting the posts dialed in will make a big difference. Think back to the Celtic teams with Bird and McHale; Parish didn't need to score much, only to defend lights out, same with the Russell teams. Just make four to six layups a game, rebound and defend, and the other team can't hang on the guards. In my own mind, which fortunately no one listens to, one key is to get the third or fourth scoring option a couple of early baskets to get the opposition realizing doubling one player is a mistake. We're really close to doing that consistently, and in a month, we'll be well able to go to the final four, seeding will be irrelevant.
 
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I believe we are a final four team for sure but it does matter who is in our bracket. But as someone said earlier, with a healthy Azzi and Aubrey, we can beat anyone in a tournament setting. The women just need to grow mentally throughout the rest of the season because I think they are too nice and need to be mean and tough. Knock someone down, hit first basically, but I liked the formula Geno used the second half against USC, it can work but to play short, they need to be even more mentally tough, Audrey brings some of that. If they are not tentative and everyone is on their game, who’s gonna beat them? Imagine, Paige, Azzi, Shade, Morgan, Chen, KK, Aubrey and Sarah all doing what they do best and active defensively. Jana giving a few tough minutes for big rebounds because that’s all we need from her. I don’t think there is any team that can compete with that. Notre Dame and UCLA will be the toughest competition but if we play to our potential, I think we win. USC and South Carolina can be a problem if we are tentative and off. I was more discouraged before the USC game.
 
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Last year I thought we could lose in the round of 32. And Syracuse tried very very hard to make it happen. But we made it to the FF and lost in the final seconds. And arguably we had a very tough path. We played Syracuse, Duke, USC -- only to meet Iowa in the FF.

Last year in the regular season we lost to:

  • NC State (92-81)
  • UCLA (78-67)
  • Texas (80-68)
  • Notre Dame (82-67)
  • South Carolina (83-65)

Our two losses this year have been to ND (79-68) and USC (72-70). I do not anticipate us getting three more losses this year and looking at the box scores/stats, it appears to me that we are playing even to or possibly slightly better than last year.

Let's compare sort of equivalent games from December. Last year in the Texas (#10) game, for example, we were only down 14 at the half but then lost by 12 (but we shot 44% from 3pt!). Compare this to the USC (#7) game we just played where we shot 29% from the arc but only lost by 2. We committed fewer PFs and TOs against USC this year versus Texas last year.

Last year against Texas we shot better % across the board (FG/3PT/FT) and also held Texas to lower % (compared to USC). In the Texas game, UConn committed 2 more PFs than Texas vs USC, where they committed 2 LESS. Looking at TOs, against Texas we committed 21 (they had 9). Against USC this year we committed 13 (they committed 18).

2023 Texas - Edwards (22 points), Paige (13 points), Nika/KK (9 points)
2024 USC - Paige (22 points), Sarah (22 points), Shade (9 points)

We had only one player against Texas who scored 0 points (Aubrey). Against USC we had two players with 0 points (Azzi and Ice).

.... I was going somewhere with all this data but then I got lost in the weeds.

TL;DR we should at least make the E8 and I think it will be considered a disappointing season if we don't make at the FF.
 

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