final bracketology

[Vowelguy]

Bracketology with Charlie Creme

 

[UcMiami]

Bracketology with Charlie Creme

ISn't having two teams from the same conference meeting before the regional a hard no no?
He has Louisville and Syracuse as the 2-3 in Albany due to meet in S16.

 

[Gus Mahler]

ISn't having two teams from the same conference meeting before the regional a hard no no?
He has Louisville and Syracuse as the 2-3 in Albany due to meet in S16.

You're saying "before the regional." Did you mean before the FF?

 

[Gus Mahler]

Three Florida teams playing in Miami.

 

[Alydar]

There are situations where doubling up is unavoidable but in those situations they are not to meet until the E8, if at all possible. And I don't buy the "cost of travel" BS. The NCAA makes billions on NCAABB and they could charter planes and not cut into their revenue much at all. If they put a 2 or 3 with a 4 from the same conference they could stay within their own guidelines.

But then why should they start now?

 

[willtalk]

I get the biggest kick out of Cremes take on which of the bubble teams are in. The most interesting part was his take on UCF ranking of UCF at #15 in the RPI as being an anomaly. It actually is not an anomaly but just a clearly obvious example of why the RPI is highly flawed. The fact that he labels it an anomaly proves that he actually believes the RPI is a valid method and that alone leaves him open to criticism.

If you compare the RPI with all the other means of ranking teams it is consistently the one that differs the most from the rest. It is just that the present 15 ranking is off more than usual to the point of appearing obviously ridiculous. Yet he believes that the committee will follow their past pattern in respect to the RPI and overlook the obvious. This is the main reason why the NCAA WCBB committee needs to follow the mens committee in scraping it entirely for rating which teams are worthy and which are not. I know the Womens basketball has generally lagged behind the mens game, but there is no reason for it to continue to do so in all area's especially in bracketing. Especially when their are much better systems presently available for doing the same job.

Again I am not posting to question their picks ( although they certainly could be ), rather their methods. Of course their methods help to give meaning to the "Term". March Madness. Their continuing to use a obsolete and flawed system can only be labeled by rational individuals as "Mad".

 

[willingtonfan]

My biggest problem with this bracket is that Creme has had Louisville as the two seed in Albany for several weeks now. But we are ranked 2 and they 5 in both polls. That’s not right. That means Creme really thinks we are #4 or they are #7. And I’m guessing it’s the former. By all the principles of bracket seeding the top eight should be:

Greensboro 1 Baylor 2 Iowa
Albany 1 UConn 2 Oregon
Chicago 1 Notre Dame 2 Stanford
Portland 1 MS State 2 Louisville

No bracket principle is violated by this arrangement and it preserves the S curve. It also puts the top 3 one seeds in the geographically closest regional. Since the NCAA insists on having a Pacific time zone regional the #4 team should go there.

My five cents (the old two cents adjusted for inflation)

 

[Vowelguy]

ISn't having two teams from the same conference meeting before the regional a hard no no?
He has Louisville and Syracuse as the 2-3 in Albany due to meet in S16.

No. It is a try-to-avoid but not strictly verboten.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Have to remember Geography rules in the placement of the teams. However the committee can make exceptions. Placement of teams is based on their ranking (1-64). As teams are placed in a bracket, they're sent to the closest regional.

Hypothetically two teams are close to Chicago. Lets say teams are ranked 6th and 7th and the 5th ranked team has already been sent to Albany Team Ranked 6th goes to Chicago. Team Ranked 7th is sent to Greensboro and the 8th Ranked team would be sent to Portland. The committee can make exceptions to even out brackets and to avoid teams from the same conference meeting again.

 

[southie]

My biggest problem with this bracket is that Creme has had Louisville as the two seed in Albany for several weeks now. But we are ranked 2 and they 5 in both polls. That’s not right. That means Creme really thinks we are #4 or they are #7. And I’m guessing it’s the former. By all the principles of bracket seeding the top eight should be:

Greensboro 1 Baylor 2 Iowa
Albany 1 UConn 2 Oregon
Chicago 1 Notre Dame 2 Stanford
Portland 1 MS State 2 Louisville

No bracket principle is violated by this arrangement and it preserves the S curve. It also puts the top 3 one seeds in the geographically closest regional. Since the NCAA insists on having a Pacific time zone regional the #4 team should go there.

My five cents (the old two cents adjusted for inflation)

Neither the committee nor Crème use the polls as a factor, I don't believe.

 

[Gabbyfan]

just looking at the number 1 and 2 seeds, Charlie Creme has the fairest match ups. If they all win the elite 8 would all be good games and there is a potential final four pairing of Uconn vs Notre Dame and Baylor Vs Miss
state. Wow!

 

[southie]

Have to remember Geography rules in the placement of the teams. However the committee can make exceptions. Placement of teams is based on their ranking (1-64). As teams are placed in a bracket, they're sent to the closest regional.

Hypothetically two teams are close to Chicago. Lets say teams are ranked 6th and 7th and the 5th ranked team has already been sent to Albany Team Ranked 6th goes to Chicago. Team Ranked 7th is sent to Greensboro and the 8th Ranked team would be sent to Portland. The committee can make exceptions to even out brackets and to avoid teams from the same conference meeting again.

It's a huge factor in the women's bracket every season. Mainly for that reason, here are my predictions:

Chicago: Notre Dame / Iowa
Greensboro: Baylor / Stanford (would have put MSU here as #2, but I think committee will place S. Carolina here to get fans in the seats)
Albany: UConn / Miss. State
Portland: Louisville / Oregon

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I think one could flip the #1 seeds with the #2 seeds, and no one would complain. The top eight are interchangeable not just in seeds, but in odds for the Final Four.

One positive, if his brackets are correct, would be that UT doesn't make it past the first round: loses to Florida State.

 

[Orangutan]

My biggest problem with this bracket is that Creme has had Louisville as the two seed in Albany for several weeks now. But we are ranked 2 and they 5 in both polls. That’s not right. That means Creme really thinks we are #4 or they are #7. And I’m guessing it’s the former.

I believe Creme is working off the assumption that UConn is #3 and Louisville is #5. It's a slight deviation from a strict s-curve approach to seeding but it preserves #6 Oregon in Portland.

I think Louisville gets the 4th 1-seed, but it doesn't change that much. In that scenario, #4 Louisville gets paired with #6 Oregon in Portland and #5 Miss St. is paired with #3 UConn in Albany.

 

[Vowelguy]

I believe Creme is working off the assumption that UConn is #3 and Louisville is #5. It's a slight deviation from a strict s-curve approach to seeding but it preserves #6 Oregon in Portland.

I think Louisville gets the 4th 1-seed, but it doesn't change that much. In that scenario, #4 Louisville gets paired with #6 Oregon in Portland and #5 Miss St. is paired with #3 UConn in Albany.

Agreed.

 

[southie]

For those who watched the ESPN analysts discuss yesterday's men's bracket, nobody seemed to understand the committee's decision to send the highest #2 seed Michigan State to the same regional as overall #1 seed Duke in D.C.; meanwhile, #2 seed Michigan (which MSU beat 3 times) was sent out West (CA) and paired with the last #1 seed Gonzaga.

So, it just proves that even in the men's tourney, where there is less dependency on geography in order to sell tickets, the committee uses such unexplainable logic.

 

[Plebe]

I believe Creme is working off the assumption that UConn is #3 and Louisville is #5. It's a slight deviation from a strict s-curve approach to seeding but it preserves #6 Oregon in Portland.

I think Louisville gets the 4th 1-seed, but it doesn't change that much. In that scenario, #4 Louisville gets paired with #6 Oregon in Portland and #5 Miss St. is paired with #3 UConn in Albany.

I actually have Louisville as #3 overall and UConn as #4. Again, I cannot believe that losing to another #1 seed is going to drop Louisville behind anyone else other than the team that beat them.

When you consider that the committee had Louisville #2 and UConn #4 on March 4, if anything Louisville's resume has only *improved* vis-a-vis UConn's since then. Louisville beat a top-10 team in the ACC tournament, whereas UConn only beat a bubble team in UCF.

It's possible that Creme is right and I'm wrong, but it would be inconsistent with how the committee has functioned in the past. To me the trickier question is the ordering of spots 5-7 among Oregon, Stanford and Mississippi State. Since March 4, Stanford has improved its resume *a lot* by beating Cal and Oregon, while MSU and Oregon only improved their resumes slightly (beating Missouri and UCLA).

 

[Orangutan]

I actually have Louisville as #3 overall and UConn as #4. Again, I cannot believe that losing to another #1 seed is going to drop Louisville behind anyone else other than the team that beat them.

When you consider that the committee had Louisville #2 and UConn #4 on March 4, if anything Louisville's resume has only *improved* vis-a-vis UConn's since then. Louisville beat a top-10 team in the ACC tournament, whereas UConn only beat a bubble team in UCF.

It's possible that Creme is right and I'm wrong, but it would be inconsistent with how the committee has functioned in the past. To me the trickier question is the ordering of spots 5-7 among Oregon, Stanford and Mississippi State. Since March 4, Stanford has improved its resume *a lot* by beating Cal and Oregon, while MSU and Oregon only improved their resumes slightly (beating Missouri and UCLA).

Yeah, if I were doing the rankings, I'd have Louisville #3. I'm sort of hedging between what I (an ACC fanboy) think and what Creme thinks for my expectation of what the committee will do.

Louisville being #3 actually makes the s-curve work if I am right and Oregon is #6.

I think Miss St. at #5, Oregon at #6, and Stanford at #7 follows pretty naturally from the seeding reveal. Oregon drops with their loss but Stanford's win isn't enough to jump them over Miss St. since the Bulldogs were already ahead and beat everyone in front of them since then.

The order of Oregon and Stanford is close. Stanford has a slight advantage in RPI and SOS plus a huge win over Baylor. Oregon has two more top-50 wins. Stanford's loss to RPI #88 Utah also sticks out like a sore thumb on their team sheet. The fact that Stanford's win over Oregon was close and Oregon's win over Stanford was a blowout may also be a factor.

 

[Plebe]

Yeah, if I were doing the rankings, I'd have Louisville #3. I'm sort of hedging between what I (an ACC fanboy) think and what Creme thinks for my expectation of what the committee will do.

Louisville being #3 actually makes the s-curve work if I am right and Oregon is #6.

I think Miss St. at #5, Oregon at #6, and Stanford at #7 follows pretty naturally from the seeding reveal. Oregon drops with their loss but Stanford's win isn't enough to jump them over Miss St. since the Bulldogs were already ahead and beat everyone in front of them since then.

The order of Oregon and Stanford is close. Stanford has a slight advantage in RPI and SOS plus a huge win over Baylor. Oregon has two more top-50 wins. Stanford's loss to RPI #88 Utah also sticks out like a sore thumb on their team sheet.

The thing is, whether Louisville and UConn are 3 and 4 or vice-versa will have no impact on their placement since UConn is in Albany either way and Louisville is left with Portland. It could, however, potentially impact which #2 seed ends up in Albany for balancing purposes.

The committee could certainly put MSU at #5, or they could use the rationale that Oregon's most recent loss was to a team that is better than any team MSU has beaten all season. If Oregon's resume on March 4 was good enough to be ahead of MSU's, I don't know that enough has happened since then to alter that order.

I think that: (a) Oregon is still ahead of Stanford, and (b) MSU is either ahead of both Oregon and Stanford or is behind both of them.

 

[IWearShoes]

The more I think about it, the more likely it seems to me that Louisville may end up as the 1 in Portland and Miss St as the 2 in Albany. Those two teams are just not separated by much to me, kinda interchangeable.

That seeding would avoid two possible rematches in the Regional finals. I'll be interested to see what they decide.

 

[Urshurak]

I have a nagging feeling in my gut that when the brackets are released tonight, we are all going to come back here and say "What in the fizzy just happened?"

 

[Orangutan]

I think that: (a) Oregon is still ahead of Stanford, and (b) MSU is either ahead of both Oregon and Stanford or is behind both of them.

I can't see MSU dropping after they handled their business in the SEC tourney (albeit against weak matchups).

 

[PacoBlaze]

I believe if the Committee let's Tennessee in the Tournament based partly/mostly on Pat's Legacy (which I believe is what they will do), then UConn should be the 2nd #1 seed because, well, we are UCONN and we have been to the last 11 FFs.

 

[IWearShoes]

I believe if the Committee let's Tennessee in the Tournament based partly/mostly on Pat's Legacy (which I believe is what they will do), then UConn should be the 2nd #1 seed because, well, we are UCONN and we have been to the last 11 FFs.

If UT gets in (I think they will, but won't mind being wrong) I don't think Pat's legacy has anything to do with it. I think they simply have better wins than most of the teams on the bubble with them.

 

[CocoHusky]

One of the things I like best about the bracket this year (if Charlie's predictions holds up) is that UCONN is going to have to be playing well starting with the second game of the tournament. The second game could be against NC a team that has beat ND this year. The third game could likely be against Missouri-who has beaten Mississippi state. Or the third game could be against Oregon State who has beaten Oregon this season. The regional final could be against Louisville.