Final Bracket Guesses

[Vowelguy]

Here's mine

 

[Vowelguy]

Based on this from the committee's top 16 two weeks ago:

 

[triaddukefan]

They betta not slot High Point with UConn

 

[Vowelguy]

Completely unintentional but my bracket includes a possible Paige v Caitlin sweet 16 matchup!
That would get some attention

 

[Plebe]

I did this way too quickly but here's my best slapdash shot at it:

At-large bubble teams:
Next-to-last four in: North Carolina, South Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
Last four in: Washington State, UCF, Ole Miss, Wake Forest
First four out: BYU, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, DePaul
Next four out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Bucknell, Houston

 

[Urshurak]

Here's mine

View attachment 65770

Wow! MIne is almost the same with the top 5 seeds except I swapped Iowa and Gonzaga. Looking at it again, I think you're right though.

 

[UcMiami]

Sorry, don't care about Ole Miss wins last week - at 4-10 in the SEC with a nowhere OOC I can't see them getting in. Just really bad optics. Feel the same about Wake at 8-10

 

[Plebe]

Sorry, don't care about Ole Miss wins last week - at 4-10 in the SEC with a nowhere OOC I can't see them getting in. Just really bad optics. Feel the same about Wake at 8-10

They have a funky resume for sure. Four strong quality wins but the losses to LSU, Florida and Missouri hurt them a bit.

A lot will come down to how much the committee values a strong finish (cough, DePaul).

Which of the teams I've put on the wrong side of the bubble do you think gets in over Ole Miss?

 

[Lorcan]

That’s the problem, isn’t it? It’s a weird year for conference comparison, understanding how NET will be used, combine with what I see as a weaker bubble than normal.

 

[UcMiami]

They have a funky resume for sure. Four strong quality wins but the losses to LSU, Florida and Missouri hurt them a bit.

A lot will come down to how much the committee values a strong finish (cough, DePaul).

Which of the teams I've put on the wrong side of the bubble do you think gets in over Ole Miss?

I would put any of your first 4 out in over either Ole Miss and Wake

 

[ConnecticutBB]

Do most of the boneyard believe ND will not get in?

 

[Plebe]

Do most of the boneyard believe ND will not get in?

I put them in my first four out, but it's pretty close to a toss-up. Very difficult to differentiate the resumes of those last 8-10 teams fighting for those last 3-4 spots. For ND I'm about 55-45 they're out, but I wouldn't be surprised if they're in.

In my bracket above I meant to switch Arizona and UCLA (I predict the committee will make UCLA a 2 seed, on the strength of their win over AZ in the P12 tournament).

 

[BobbyJ]

I did this way too quickly but here's my best slapdash shot at it:


View attachment 65799


At-large bubble teams:
Next-to-last four in: North Carolina, South Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
Last four in: Washington State, UCF, Ole Miss, Wake Forest
First four out: BYU, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, DePaul
Next four out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Bucknell, Houston

You know you’ll be hearing from @triaddukefan if he sees this don’t you???

 

[Plebe]

You know you’ll be hearing from @triaddukefan if he sees this don’t you???

About which team, High Point or NC A&T?

 

[Vowelguy]

You know you’ll be hearing from @triaddukefan if he sees this don’t you???

He did include Wake in his field, though ....

 

[BobbyJ]

About which team, High Point or NC A&T?

High Point. He loves his Panthers.

 

[Plebe]

He did include Wake in his field, though ....

I feel like those last two spots come down to 5 teams: Ole Miss, Wake, BYU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma.

 

[triaddukefan]

My Surgeon says no strenuous activities for 2-3 weeks after surgery......but if they put HPU as a #16 seed..... Imma have to go against doctor's orders

I can see the local news now..... Local irate HPU fan hospitalized after attempting to throw a washing machine and a dryer onto the backyard of his residence.

 

[Vowelguy]

My Surgeon says no strenuous activities for 2-3 weeks after surgery......but if they put HPU as a #16 seed..... Imma have to go against doctor's orders

I can see the local news now..... Local irate HPU fan hospitalized after attempting to throw a washing machine and a dryer onto the backyard of his residence.

Hope you are well! And that HPU doesnt get paired with UConn, so we can all root for them.

 

[Plebe]

My Surgeon says no strenuous activities for 2-3 weeks after surgery......but if they put HPU as a #16 seed..... Imma have to go against doctor's orders

I can see the local news now..... Local irate HPU fan hospitalized after attempting to throw a washing machine and a dryer onto the backyard of his residence.

Better start looking up YouTube videos on best techniques for throwing heavy home appliances. Not seeing how High Point ends up better than a 16 based on NET and resume.

Edit to add: for my bracketology I compiled this list of the latest NET rankings of the 20 lowest-ranked automatic qualifiers (likely seeded in the 12-16 range). Of course, seeding won't necessarily reflect this order, but it's interesting to see:

63 Belmont
71 UC Davis
75 Lehigh
79 Bradley

80 Wright St
84 Idaho St
90 Central Michigan
99 Wyoming

100 Stony Brook
103 Marist
105 VCU
106 Drexel

107 MTSU
111 Jackson St
114 Mt. St. Mary’s
115 Troy

123 NC A&T
146 Mercer
180 High Point
216 Utah Valley

 

[Lorcan]

Gotta love how Lehigh only played five different teams all season, and ends up with a NET of 75. It helps to play Bucknell five times, I guess.

 

[Plebe]

Gotta love how Lehigh only played five different teams all season, and ends up with a NET of 75. It helps to play Bucknell five times, I guess.

I don't think number of opponents is an inherent advantage or disadvantage in the NET. All depends on how you perform against whatever limited sample size you have.

What helps is they beat Bucknell once and went 9-1 against everyone else they played, including a top 100 road win at Boston U.

Even more intriguing to me is how Bucknell ended up #37 even after losing to Lehigh.

 

[Lorcan]

I don't think number of opponents is an inherent advantage or disadvantage in the NET. All depends on how you perform against whatever limited sample size you have.

What helps is they beat Bucknell once and went 9-1 against everyone else they played, including a top 100 road win at Boston U.

Even more intriguing to me is how Bucknell ended up #37 even after losing to Lehigh.

To be sure. The numbers really seem to like Bucknell, but does a mid with a 37 NET warrant consideration with the resume that Bucknell has? It’s interesting when I’ve seen us all consider South Dakota State with a 46 NET to be safely in.
It’s got to be hard for the committee to judge some of these teams this year. For instance, do you penalize Bucknell for playing a Patriot League only slate this year because of the pandemic?

 

[Vowelguy]

To be sure. The numbers really seem to like Bucknell, but does a mid with a 37 NET warrant consideration with the resume that Bucknell has? It’s interesting when I’ve seen us all consider South Dakota State with a 46 NET to be safely in.
It’s got to be hard for the committee to judge some of these teams this year. For instance, do you penalize Bucknell for playing a Patriot League only slate this year because of the pandemic?

Bucknell has no chance.

 

[Vowelguy]

Here's mine

View attachment 65770

Report card:

A top 5: ALL CORRECT
B top 5: I got 4 of out 5
C top 5: 0 of 5
D top 5: 0 of 5

Of the top 25, the only seed lines I missed were TAMU (2 not 1), NCSt (1 not 2), and GaT (5 instead of Mich).