Final BE OOC thread 25/26

[RuffRuff]

If your worst prognostication came true, I’d still bet a big east teams lucks into an elite 8. It’s just statistically improbable

Has a BE team not named Nova or UConn made a FF since Ville? Creighton made the elite 8 in 23. Anyone else? Outside of two teams it’s not like the BE has been rolling in Elite 8s over the past 11 years. One of those teams is in a full rebuild after a legendary coach. The other is us.

Elite 8 and winning 3 does take a really solid team. Now that league has actually fallen off, not sure what is driving the confidence. Maybe Pitino can claw one out.

 

[navery12]

Has a BE team not named Nova or UConn made a FF since Ville? Creighton made the elite 8 in 23. Anyone else? Outside of two teams it’s not like the BE has been rolling in Elite 8s over the past 11 years. One of those teams is in a full rebuild after a legendary coach. The other is us.

Elite 8 and winning 3 does take a really solid team. Now that league has actually fallen off, not sure what is driving the confidence. Maybe Pitino can claw one out.

Just Xavier to the Ellie Eight in 2017

 

[KingAG]

Has a BE team not named Nova or UConn made a FF since Ville? Creighton made the elite 8 in 23. Anyone else? Outside of two teams it’s not like the BE has been rolling in Elite 8s over the past 11 years. One of those teams is in a full rebuild after a legendary coach. The other is us.

Elite 8 and winning 3 does take a really solid team. Now that league has actually fallen off, not sure what is driving the confidence. Maybe Pitino can claw one out.

Since 2017 4 different BE teams have made an elite 8. And Marquette in 2023 was final 4 caliber team before Kolek got hurt. The BE was a missed calll away from having 2 teams in the final four a couple seasons ago.

I’m not the one you’ll find arguing that the BE is good this year. I just think it’s absurdly arrogant to pretend you can predict that none of the other 10 BE teams can win 3 games in the tournament over the next 10 seasons. When history has suggested that they will.

You would have also not predicted in 2016 that UConn would win back to back national championships in the next 10 years. You would not have predicted Nova who was in the midst of a dynasty would fall off. 10 years is a long time.

 

[RuffRuff]

Since 2017 4 different BE teams have made an elite 8. And Marquette in 2023 was final 4 caliber team before Kolek got hurt. The BE was a missed calll away from having 2 teams in the final four a couple seasons ago.

I’m not the one you’ll find arguing that the BE is good this year. I just think it’s absurdly arrogant to pretend you can predict that none of the other 10 BE teams can win 3 games in the tournament over the next 10 seasons. When history has suggested that they will.

You would have also not predicted in 2016 that UConn would win back to back national championships in the next 10 years. You would not have predicted Nova who was in the midst of a dynasty would fall off. 10 years is a long time.

Xavier has bottomed out and lost a great coach, Marquette is going deeply in the wrong direction. Creighton isn't long on McDermott and without a ton of foundational players currently on the roster (McAndrew is one).

What I'm saying is that due to metrics/analytics and portal/NIL, the sport is becoming MUCH more predictable, and it's showing that high KP teams are getting stronger, separating further from the have nots. I'm not sure any of this is being arrogant as much as reading the data & trends analytically, while also looking at the macro economics of how things are moving.

 

[shizzle787]

St. John’s wins.

Final overall: 87-34 (22-28).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Xavier has bottomed out and lost a great coach, Marquette is going deeply in the wrong direction. Creighton isn't long on McDermott and without a ton of foundational players currently on the roster (McAndrew is one).

What I'm saying is that due to metrics/analytics and portal/NIL, the sport is becoming MUCH more predictable, and it's showing that high KP teams are getting stronger, separating further from the have nots. I'm not sure any of this is being arrogant as much as reading the data & trends analytically, while also looking at the macro economics of how things are moving.

Xavier was a single possession from beating a top 20 team. The program has not bottomed out.

 

[RuffRuff]

Xavier was a single possession from beating a top 20 team. The program has not bottomed out.

They lost by 40 at home to Creighton two games ago. 102 in KP. That is a significant low for a proud program.

 

[uconngb]

View attachment 114924

He will be wrong THIS March…..book it

I hope then he will STFU

 

[RuffRuff]

He will be wrong THIS March…..book it

I hope then he will STFU

Lets put a bet down. I'll give you this one - no mid major will beat a seed 4 or better.

 

[FightOnCT]

Way too early to say that non-UConn Big East teams won’t make a run in the tourney. Even as is, I and I bet a lot of people on this board wrote off Nova’s roster. I can see them at least making it to the second weekend even if I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

[KingAG]

Xavier has bottomed out and lost a great coach, Marquette is going deeply in the wrong direction. Creighton isn't long on McDermott and without a ton of foundational players currently on the roster (McAndrew is one).

What I'm saying is that due to metrics/analytics and portal/NIL, the sport is becoming MUCH more predictable, and it's showing that high KP teams are getting stronger, separating further from the have nots. I'm not sure any of this is being arrogant as much as reading the data & trends analytically, while also looking at the macro economics of how things are moving.

You keep citing “trends” and “data” when we are 2 tournaments removed from the most Cinderella final 4 ever. And one tournament away from an 11 seed making the final 4. The tournament will continue to have upsets and improbable runs. Simply because it’s single elimination. The variance destroys any confident predictability. You just simply can not confidently right off every team from the 4th or 5th best conference in America from making an elite 8 for the next decade. There is no “data” that would back that up or predict that.

For data:

Since 2022 the average final four seed is a 4.

The average seed in elite 8’s is a 4.

And those numbers are severely bumped by last seasons chalk.

Notable Seeds we’ve seen in the elite 8 since 2022:

10 Miami(2022)
8UNC(2022)
15 St Peters(2022)
5 Houston(2022)

5 SD State(2023)
6 Creighton!(2023)
9 FAU(2023)
5 Miami(2023)

6 Clemson(2024)
11 NC State(2024)

Last year was the anomaly as of right now. Not the rule. The tournament has been extremely volatile in the recent past. And most of these aren’t historical Cinderellas. There high major low seeded teams. The exact BE teams you’re writing off.

 

[shizzle787]

Way too early to say that non-UConn Big East teams won’t make a run in the tourney. Even as is, I and I bet a lot of people on this board wrote off Nova’s roster. I can see them at least making it to the second weekend even if I wouldn’t bet on it.

Not only that but St. John's is talented. If they put it together and get a #6 seed, an Elite 8 run with the right matchups is very realistic.

 

[shizzle787]

Lets put a bet down. I'll give you this one - no mid major will beat a seed 4 or better.

I'll take that bet.

 

[FightOnCT]

Xavier has bottomed out and lost a great coach, Marquette is going deeply in the wrong direction. Creighton isn't long on McDermott and without a ton of foundational players currently on the roster (McAndrew is one).

What I'm saying is that due to metrics/analytics and portal/NIL, the sport is becoming MUCH more predictable, and it's showing that high KP teams are getting stronger, separating further from the have nots. I'm not sure any of this is being arrogant as much as reading the data & trends analytically, while also looking at the macro economics of how things are moving.

I’m not necessarily happy about the state of our conference now or long-term, but these programs aren’t as hopeless and you’re making them out to be. Creighton has a succession plan in place already, Huss is a good coach.

Marquette and Georgetown are primarily held back by coaching imo, the schools have money and MU in particular has great NIL. Shaka is the one who’s voluntarily handicapping the program by swearing off the portal and selecting recruits only desirable by CAA programs. GU even has improved player-wise, I just don’t think Cooley is gonna make it work.

 

[RuffRuff]

You keep citing “trends” and “data” when we are 2 tournaments removed from the most Cinderella final 4 ever. And one tournament away from an 11 seed making the final 4. The tournament will continue to have upsets and improbable runs. Simply because it’s single elimination. The variance destroys any confident predictability. You just simply can not confidently right off every team from the 4th or 5th best conference in America from making an elite 8 for the next decade. There is no “data” that would back that up or predict that.

For data:

Since 2022 the average final four seed is a 4.

The average seed in elite 8’s is a 4.

And those numbers are severely bumped by last seasons chalk.

Notable Seeds we’ve seen in the elite 8 since 2022:

10 Miami(2022)
8UNC(2022)
15 St Peters(2022)
5 Houston(2022)

5 SD State(2023)
6 Creighton!(2023)
9 FAU(2023)
5 Miami(2023)

6 Clemson(2024)
11 NC State(2024)

Last year was the anomaly as of right now. Not the rule. The tournament has been extremely volatile in the recent past. And most of these aren’t historical Cinderellas. There high major low seeded teams. The exact BE teams you’re writing off.

Portal and NIL have settled

 

[JwittersPAC]

I’m not necessarily happy about the state of our conference now or long-term, but these programs aren’t as hopeless and you’re making them out to be. Creighton has a succession plan in place already, Huss is a good coach.

Marquette and Georgetown are primarily held back by coaching imo, the schools have money and MU in particular has great NIL. Shaka is the one who’s voluntarily handicapping the program by swearing off the portal and selecting recruits only desirable by CAA programs. GU even has improved player-wise, I just don’t think Cooley is gonna make it work.

Please stop with Georgetown. Georgetown averages less than 6,000 for home attendance. Just because Georgetown was a national powerhouse 40 years ago means nothing today. Creighton and Marquette have a much better chance to succeed since they actually have fans that care about the program.

 

[REB1094]

You keep citing “trends” and “data” when we are 2 tournaments removed from the most Cinderella final 4 ever. And one tournament away from an 11 seed making the final 4. The tournament will continue to have upsets and improbable runs. Simply because it’s single elimination. The variance destroys any confident predictability. You just simply can not confidently right off every team from the 4th or 5th best conference in America from making an elite 8 for the next decade. There is no “data” that would back that up or predict that.

For data:

Since 2022 the average final four seed is a 4.

The average seed in elite 8’s is a 4.

And those numbers are severely bumped by last seasons chalk.

Notable Seeds we’ve seen in the elite 8 since 2022:

10 Miami(2022)
8UNC(2022)
15 St Peters(2022)
5 Houston(2022)

5 SD State(2023)
6 Creighton!(2023)
9 FAU(2023)
5 Miami(2023)

6 Clemson(2024)
11 NC State(2024)

Last year was the anomaly as of right now. Not the rule. The tournament has been extremely volatile in the recent past. And most of these aren’t historical Cinderellas. There high major low seeded teams. The exact BE teams you’re writing off.

This is a really good point. In the last decade or so the “Cinderella” teams in the Final Four aren’t mid majors. Minus Loyola in 2018 and FAU/SDSU in 2023, it’s all lower seeded power teams

I would expect this to be the trend moving forward. Mid majors weren’t really making the final four even before portal/NIL madness, so they definitely won’t be doing it after

The mid major magic will be in the first round and maybe we’ll see some of them make the second weekend. But since we did it from the AAC in 2014, mid majors haven’t really been able to make it to the final weekend. Maybe we’ll see a really veteran and well coached team do it every 5-6 years or so. But it’s not like it was this common thing that is now taken away from us because of the portal

 

[HooperScooper]

Please stop with Georgetown. Georgetown averages less than 6,000 for home attendance. Just because Georgetown was a national powerhouse 40 years ago means nothing today. Creighton and Marquette have a much better chance to succeed since they actually have fans that care about the program.

St. John's was having attendance issues before last season. You win and people start to care again.

 

[RuffRuff]

Please stop with Georgetown. Georgetown averages less than 6,000 for home attendance. Just because Georgetown was a national powerhouse 40 years ago means nothing today. Creighton and Marquette have a much better chance to succeed since they actually have fans that care about the program.

I keep thinking if Cooley could actually win, he might be able to resuscitate that fan base. It may take a lot to excite them given their hay day's were with some iconic players.

Too many posters here have absolutely no realistic sense of national brand recognition and they lean on their own personal nostalgia as why this conference can be great again. When the reality is that it's kind of a dusty group of teams. Money matters, but PC was offering more than Arkansas to Toure. Kids want experience too.

This is a really good point. In the last decade or so the “Cinderella” teams in the Final Four aren’t mid majors. Minus Loyola in 2018 and FAU/SDSU in 2023, it’s all lower seeded power teams

I would expect this to be the trend moving forward. Mid majors weren’t really making the final four even before portal/NIL madness, so they definitely won’t be doing it after

The mid major magic will be in the first round and maybe we’ll see some of them make the second weekend. But since we did it from the AAC in 2014, mid majors haven’t really been able to make it to the final weekend. Maybe we’ll see a really veteran and well coached team do it every 5-6 years or so. But it’s not like it was this common thing that is now taken away from us because of the portal

We really need to stop looking at any trend analysis prior to NIL & Portal maturity. I don't get why anyone completely ignores this referring to times prior to. The sport has changed more in the last 3 years than it did in the prior 25.

 

[RuffRuff]

St. John's was having attendance issues before last season. You win and people start to care again.

Lot of Pitino factor going on there.

 

[superjohn]

I keep thinking if Cooley could actually win, he might be able to resuscitate that fan base. It may take a lot to excite them given their hay day's were with some iconic players.

Too many posters here have absolutely no realistic sense of national brand recognition and they lean on their own personal nostalgia as why this conference can be great again. When the reality is that it's kind of a dusty group of teams. Money matters, but PC was offering more than Arkansas to Toure. Kids want experience too.

We really need to stop looking at any trend analysis prior to NIL & Portal maturity. I don't get why anyone completely ignores this referring to times prior to. The sport has changed more in the last 3 years than it did in the prior 25.

 

[alexd]

I almost expect to lose to Seton Hall. We aren't going 20-0 or 19-1 so we will have to lose to somebody.

It's still crazy to think back to the three seasons starting in 1993/94 when we went 16-2, 16-2 & 17-1 in conference. 😳

 

[RuffRuff]

View attachment 114979

 

[gtcam]

Portal and NIL have settled

In a one and done tournament anything can happen
Best of 3, 5 or 7 yes, I agree that the more talented team would/should win those but single elimination? Not a sure thing at all.

 

[RuffRuff]

In a one and done tournament anything can happen
Best of 3, 5 or 7 yes, I agree that the more talented team would/should win those but single elimination? Not a sure thing at all.

Yes & no. Less likely these little guys which are now diluted, can stick with the big guys, which are better, for a full 40.

And there are so many analytics used to give these better teams the advantage. Maybe I'm wrong. I expect another chalky tourney this year.