Final 8 Teams in Consideration for the Tournament

[Vowelguy]

Don’t count out Arkansas.

If you look at Arkansas resume without the SEC tournament, it wouldn't even be close. The SEC run was impressive, but how much do you wanna base on one good weekend. I think the committee values the previous 15 weeks too.

 

[PacoBlaze]

We have to remember that the Committee is going to pick as many P5 schools as possible that fall within their "guidelines".

The P5 leagues are where the NCAA gets their money from and that's the bottom line.

 

[shiverz45]

No way Arkansas gets in with a 6-10 conference record. Also they have the lowest RPI of the group. Indiana has the most impressive wins and they have a top 50 RPI. UCF has a top 15 RPI but has not beaten anyone other than Quinnipiac. I am amazed that they have an RPI that high. Tennessee if they get in with a 60 RPI it is because of name recognition only. Losing to Vandy and Alabama might have been the death blow. I know from watching the men selection shows, head to head does not really factor in that much so I will give Auburn the edge over Tennessee. I got UCF, Indiana, Ohio, and Auburn. However if the committee wants to put Tennessee in it would be at the expense of Auburn since they loss to Tennessee twice.

 

[Plebe]

We have to remember that the Committee is going to pick as many P5 schools as possible that fall within their "guidelines".

The P5 leagues are where the NCAA gets their money from and that's the bottom line.

This is a seductive conspiracy theory but it really isn't borne out by history.

Last year Buffalo and Creighton were among the last teams in.
In 2017 Northern Iowa was a surprising inclusion as one of the last teams in.
In 2016 St. Bonaventure and Princeton were among the last teams in.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

If you look at Arkansas resume without the SEC tournament, it wouldn't even be close. The SEC run was impressive, but how much do you wanna base on one good weekend. I think the committee values the previous 15 weeks too.

Yes—all true and i don’t disagree. However—the committee is CLEARLY thinking about them hence the “debatable 8”. If they didn’t have a chance-they wouldn’t be listed.

 

[ocoandasoc]

Here's a rundown on the seven teams -- W/L overall and conference, RPI, SOS, and Power Rating numbers and rank.

UCF 26-6 15-4 RPI .6314 (#15) SOS .5634 (#49) PR 79.22 (#15)

Ohio 27-5 14-4 RPI .6020 (#34) SOS .5290 (#90) PR: 77.90 (#21) Wins: Purdue, Buffalo

Indiana 20-12 9-11 RPI: .5818 (#47) SOS .5703 (#41) PR: 71.16 (#61) Wins: UCLA, SoDak, Iowa

Auburn 21-9 10-8 RPI: .5795 (#50) SOS .5454 (#71) PR: 72.69 (#48) Wins: Mizzou, LSU

TCU 20 -10 10 -9 RPI: .5740 (#57) SOS .5500 (#64) PR: 71.44 (#59) Wins: WV, Iowa St.

Tenn 19 -12 8-10 RPI .5735 (#59) SOS .5752 (#35) PR: 70.82 (#70) Wins: Texas, Missouri

Arkansas 20-14 9-11 RPI: .5685 (#67) SOS .5670 (#45) PR: 69.19 (#80) Wins: Tex A&M, TN, SC

No matter which criteria you use, UCF comes out in the top 4. (Except maybe "good wins.")

If it turns out to be UCF, Indiana, Auburn and Tenn, Creme and Lobo will have hit it right on the head. You have to wonder how closely ESPN and the NCAA Committee work together.

And is this the first time they've revealed officially the names of the teams on the bubble? With Tenn in the mix, are they just trying to build the ratings for the selection show?

Arkansas has no shot. They couldn't take them without taking Tenn and Auburn and that would be SEC overload for a lot of folks. You can make a pretty good case for any of the others. But the Committee will do what it always does at this point -- make a subjective decision and then figure out how to objectively justify it. (Wait... maybe they could justify taking Arkansas because they "peaked at the end of the season." (LOL, they lost 9 of their last 13 games!)

 

[FridaFriend]

I know that Princeton was one of the eight before they won the IVY. Would they put Penn into the mix, because they had the same conference record as Princeton, and go from 7 back to eight teams for the 4 remaining spots?

 

[Vowelguy]

I know that Princeton was one of the eight before they won the IVY. Would they put Penn into the mix, because they had the same conference record as Princeton, and go from 7 back to eight teams for the 4 remaining spots?

No. 4 of the 7 are in. 3 out.

 

[ocoandasoc]

I know that Princeton was one of the eight before they won the IVY. Would they put Penn into the mix, because they had the same conference record as Princeton, and go from 7 back to eight teams for the 4 remaining spots?

I wondered about that too, since Penn has a higher RPI than TCU, Tenn and Arkansas. But I think their SOS killed them.

 

[Plebe]

And is this the first time they've revealed officially the names of the teams on the bubble? With Tenn in the mix, are they just trying to build the ratings for the selection show?

Arkansas has no shot. They couldn't take them without taking Tenn and Auburn

They did the "debatable 8" reveal last year as well.

There's no rule that teams from the same conference have to be selected "in order," and in fact it often doesn't work out that way. Ohio State finished 5th in the Big Ten but they are not in contention. Michigan State finished tied for 6th and they're safely in. Indiana, another bubble team, finished tied for 10th. The conference regular season only accounts for about half the resume, and unbalanced conference schedules further skew the picture.

 

[FridaFriend]

My point was not really that Penn should replace Princeton, but they already had a spot for the IVY league winner. Princeton has now filled that spot instead of Penn, shouldn't the next team in line replace Princeton in the eight or was Princeton the last on the list of eight?

Also, Creme's latest brackets don't include Missouri State; he still shows Drake as the winner of the MVC. Doesn't this take a spot away or is Creme's bracket just off?

 

[biobioprof]

My point was not really that Penn should replace Princeton, but they already had a spot for the IVY league winner. Princeton has now filled that spot instead of Penn, shouldn't the next team in line replace Princeton in the eight or was Princeton the last on the list of eight?

Also, Creme's latest brackets don't include Missouri State; he still shows Drake as the winner of the MVC. Doesn't this take a spot away or is Creme's bracket just off?

I see both Drake and Missouri State with the latter as MVC in his latest.

 

[shiverz45]

Here's a rundown on the seven teams -- W/L overall and conference, RPI, SOS, and Power Rating numbers and rank.

UCF 26-6 15-4 RPI .6314 (#15) SOS .5634 (#49) PR 79.22 (#15)

Ohio 27-5 14-4 RPI .6020 (#34) SOS .5290 (#90) PR: 77.90 (#21) Wins: Purdue, Buffalo

Indiana 20-12 9-11 RPI: .5818 (#47) SOS .5703 (#41) PR: 71.16 (#61) Wins: UCLA, SoDak, Iowa

Auburn 21-9 10-8 RPI: .5795 (#50) SOS .5454 (#71) PR: 72.69 (#48) Wins: Mizzou, LSU

TCU 20 -10 10 -9 RPI: .5740 (#57) SOS .5500 (#64) PR: 71.44 (#59) Wins: WV, Iowa St.

Tenn 19 -12 8-10 RPI .5735 (#59) SOS .5752 (#35) PR: 70.82 (#70) Wins: Texas, Missouri

Arkansas 20-14 9-11 RPI: .5685 (#67) SOS .5670 (#45) PR: 69.19 (#80) Wins: Tex A&M, TN, SC

No matter which criteria you use, UCF comes out in the top 4. (Except maybe "good wins.")

If it turns out to be UCF, Indiana, Auburn and Tenn, Creme and Lobo will have hit it right on the head. You have to wonder how closely ESPN and the NCAA Committee work together.

And is this the first time they've revealed officially the names of the teams on the bubble? With Tenn in the mix, are they just trying to build the ratings for the selection show?

Arkansas has no shot. They couldn't take them without taking Tenn and Auburn and that would be SEC overload for a lot of folks. You can make a pretty good case for any of the others. But the Committee will do what it always does at this point -- make a subjective decision and then figure out how to objectively justify it. (Wait... maybe they could justify taking Arkansas because they "peaked at the end of the season." (LOL, they lost 9 of their last 13 games!)

Here's a rundown on the seven teams -- W/L overall and conference, RPI, SOS, and Power Rating numbers and rank.

UCF 26-6 15-4 RPI .6314 (#15) SOS .5634 (#49) PR 79.22 (#15)

Ohio 27-5 14-4 RPI .6020 (#34) SOS .5290 (#90) PR: 77.90 (#21) Wins: Purdue, Buffalo

Indiana 20-12 9-11 RPI: .5818 (#47) SOS .5703 (#41) PR: 71.16 (#61) Wins: UCLA, SoDak, Iowa

Auburn 21-9 10-8 RPI: .5795 (#50) SOS .5454 (#71) PR: 72.69 (#48) Wins: Mizzou, LSU

TCU 20 -10 10 -9 RPI: .5740 (#57) SOS .5500 (#64) PR: 71.44 (#59) Wins: WV, Iowa St.

Tenn 19 -12 8-10 RPI .5735 (#59) SOS .5752 (#35) PR: 70.82 (#70) Wins: Texas, Missouri

Arkansas 20-14 9-11 RPI: .5685 (#67) SOS .5670 (#45) PR: 69.19 (#80) Wins: Tex A&M, TN, SC

No matter which criteria you use, UCF comes out in the top 4. (Except maybe "good wins.")

If it turns out to be UCF, Indiana, Auburn and Tenn, Creme and Lobo will have hit it right on the head. You have to wonder how closely ESPN and the NCAA Committee work together.

And is this the first time they've revealed officially the names of the teams on the bubble? With Tenn in the mix, are they just trying to build the ratings for the selection show?

Arkansas has no shot. They couldn't take them without taking Tenn and Auburn and that would be SEC overload for a lot of folks. You can make a pretty good case for any of the others. But the Committee will do what it always does at this point -- make a subjective decision and then figure out how to objectively justify it. (Wait... maybe they could justify taking Arkansas because they "peaked at the end of the season." (LOL, they lost 9 of their last 13 games!)

Auburn also has a win over North Carolina.

 

[biobioprof]

Auburn also has a win over North Carolina.

Are the listed wins teams that are expected to be in? If so, Tenn should get credit for Auburn and Clemson. And TCU doesn’t get to count West Virginia. And beating LSU should not count.

 

[bballnut90]

Here's a rundown on the seven teams -- W/L overall and conference, RPI, SOS, and Power Rating numbers and rank.

UCF 26-6 15-4 RPI .6314 (#15) SOS .5634 (#49) PR 79.22 (#15)

Ohio 27-5 14-4 RPI .6020 (#34) SOS .5290 (#90) PR: 77.90 (#21) Wins: Purdue, Buffalo

Indiana 20-12 9-11 RPI: .5818 (#47) SOS .5703 (#41) PR: 71.16 (#61) Wins: UCLA, SoDak, Iowa

Auburn 21-9 10-8 RPI: .5795 (#50) SOS .5454 (#71) PR: 72.69 (#48) Wins: Mizzou, LSU

TCU 20 -10 10 -9 RPI: .5740 (#57) SOS .5500 (#64) PR: 71.44 (#59) Wins: WV, Iowa St.

Tenn 19 -12 8-10 RPI .5735 (#59) SOS .5752 (#35) PR: 70.82 (#70) Wins: Texas, Missouri

Arkansas 20-14 9-11 RPI: .5685 (#67) SOS .5670 (#45) PR: 69.19 (#80) Wins: Tex A&M, TN, SC

No matter which criteria you use, UCF comes out in the top 4. (Except maybe "good wins.")

If it turns out to be UCF, Indiana, Auburn and Tenn, Creme and Lobo will have hit it right on the head. You have to wonder how closely ESPN and the NCAA Committee work together.

And is this the first time they've revealed officially the names of the teams on the bubble? With Tenn in the mix, are they just trying to build the ratings for the selection show?

Arkansas has no shot. They couldn't take them without taking Tenn and Auburn and that would be SEC overload for a lot of folks. You can make a pretty good case for any of the others. But the Committee will do what it always does at this point -- make a subjective decision and then figure out how to objectively justify it. (Wait... maybe they could justify taking Arkansas because they "peaked at the end of the season." (LOL, they lost 9 of their last 13 games!)

Sort of an interesting dilemma...
For safe teams I'd guess:

Indiana has really good wins...I think they should be safe. Ohio looks pretty solid too and has no bad losses, so I think they get in.

Auburn has a stronger resume than Tennessee or Arkansas. Their wins over UNC and Mizzou are equivalent or better than Tennessee's, and their losses are to Tennessee, while Tennessee has losses to Vandy/Alabama. I think they're safe.

For the last spot, it really comes down to what the committee values:

TCU has a couple of good wins (K-State/Iowa State) coupled with a bad loss to Ok St.

UCF has a very high RPI but I honestly have no idea how that worked out so well for them...nothing about their resume screams tournament team IMO.

Tennessee has the worst losses but also 5 wins over top 50 RPI teams. Name recognition could help and will be used as an excuse by many if they make the cut.

Arkansas has a lower RPI and seems like the least likely to get in of the 3, but has a case since they finished the year picking up two massive wins against top 20 RPI teams in the final weekend.



I'd pick TCU or UCF over the bottom 2 SEC teams, but we'll see what happens. Honestly

 

[PacoBlaze]

This is a seductive conspiracy theory but it really isn't borne out by history.

Last year Buffalo and Creighton were among the last teams in.
In 2017 Northern Iowa was a surprising inclusion as one of the last teams in.
In 2016 St. Bonaventure and Princeton were among the last teams in.

I am confused because I don't know every team that has been picked for an at-large bid in the past Tournaments but if you are saying only 1 or 2 of the 32 at-large bids were for non P5 schools, well that sort of supports my opinion.

 

[Plebe]

I am confused because I don't know every team that has been picked for an at-large bid in the past Tournaments but if you are saying only 1 or 2 of the 32 at-large bids were for non P5 schools, well that sort of supports my opinion.

That's not what I'm saying at all.

Your statement was: "We have to remember that the Committee is going to pick as many P5 schools as possible that fall within their 'guidelines'." So I'm merely pointing out that non-P5 teams have often barely squeaked into the field as bubble teams (i.e., it would have been easy for the committee to leave them out if they were conspiring to do so). There have been plenty of other non-P5 teams who made it in as locks.

 

[ed4ourgirls]

. . . UCF has a top 15 RPI but has not beaten anyone other than Quinnipiac. I am amazed that they have an RPI that high. . . .

They played UConn three times. That will plump up anybody's RPI and SOS.

 

[Plebe]

They played UConn three times. That will plump up anybody's RPI and SOS.

It wasn't just that. Their RPI was already high even before they played UConn for the first time.

UCF just really found the sweet spot in the RPI. They played no games against the bottom 75 teams of the RPI, and only 6 games outside the top 200. But they played a ton of "winnable" games in the 40-200 range, and they lost only one of those games. They went 11-2 against the #39 nonconference SOS, and their nonconference RPI was #14, one spot better than their overall RPI.