February Bracketology

[BRS24]

"What exactly is LSU? The answer still isn't clear. It's a rare season when we arrive at the first week of February and an unbeaten team from a major conference remains a mystery. The Tigers are good, of course. The question is just how good. LSU's weak nonconference schedule has been well chronicled, but the SEC's down year hasn't been discussed nearly as much. LSU's 10-0 league mark is impressive, but it doesn't carry the same weight as it might have in past seasons. And that's why games like Thursday, when the Tigers get pushed to the brink at home by Georgia, leave some doubt, especially with so little depth to the resume. LSU is a solid No. 2 seed, but doesn't it feel like we still need to see more? That's unusual just a little more than five weeks from Selection Sunday."

No changes from 1/31. Showing the 2 preseason weeks, the first week (11/8), and a few January dates for reference.

In looking at the first bracket on 11/8, 11 of the top 16 are still in. TN, L'ville, TX all flamed out after the first 1-2 brackets. Meanwhile, Utah and UCLA came in week 3 and still going strong. OK got some pre-season love, exited after week 2, and flirted with the top 16 in January.

 

[BRS24]

"Determining the final No. 1 seed in this projection might have been the most difficult decision in the history of women's Bracketology. Iowa, LSU and Stanford all were in the running. If we have learned anything from recent selection committees, they have liked quality wins and don't like suspect schedules. That's why Stanford, despite Sunday's loss at Washington, won out by a sliver. LSU's schedule, among the worst for all major conference teams, remains an anchor for the Tigers. Stanford and Iowa have played top-10 schedules, and the Cardinal are 5-1 against the NET top 25 -- tied with Indiana and North Carolina for the second-most such wins in the country, behind UConn. Stanford also is tied with the Huskies for the most top-50 NET wins (10). LSU's unbeaten record is not discounted nor is the Hawkeyes' recent hot streak, but Stanford still has the better overall resume."

Welcome back VA Tech and Texas. Iowa St and UCLA out. I've hidden some of the rows so the chart is not unwieldy, however will show the whole thing when we're done with this part of the dance. I'll also include the two reveals on the 9th and 23rd. Note that the first two rows are shaded (preseason), 11/8 was the first week of the season.

View attachment 83884

Twelve of the original 16 teams on No 8 are still in it.

 

[visitingcock]

Impressive presentation.

KUDOS! to you Sir or Ma'am.

 

[BRS24]

Clearly I'm challenged today with the whole copy pasta thing. Here's the bracketology referenced in post #2

 

[Bone Dog]

I think Charlie should have bumped LSU much further down, maybe to a 3 seed. that has them in the top 10 is clearly unreliable. It looks like he's moved us to either the 2 or the 3 overall seed, which is an improvement -- I'm guessing because he now allows for us to meet SC in the NC game.

 

[Bone Dog]

As always, I like to game out our path to the NC with each of Charlie's brackets. In this one, we'd likely play Albany - Alabama - Va Tech (or possibly Marquette or Arizona) - LSU (unless tOSU knocks them off). Then we face Indiana in the FF and SC in the NC

Stanford will likely play S. Utah - Creighton - Michigan (or maybe Baylor) - then Iowa (or perhaps UNC or Colorado) - then SC in the FF.

IU plays one of the "play in" teams Jackson or Morgan St - then ISU - FSU - ND - Utah - then us.

SC plays one of the "play in teams" Samford or Texas A&M - then Kansas - Texas - Duke and meets Stanford in the FF.

Could there be any upsets before the FF? Could Texas pull themselves together and beat SC? Maybe, if Taylor Jones is strong enough to play 30 mins, and if Gaston and Muhammad have career games. Could Utah upset IU? Definitely. Could ND? Maybe. Could Iowa beat Stanford in the Elite Eight? This is the most intriguing possibility, but would require one of the other shooters besides Clark to get hot, like Martin did against us, or Warnock or Marshall.

So maybe we play Utah in the FF, and then Iowa in the NC. That'd be a hoot!

 

[Cornell Lt]

As always, I like to game out our path to the NC with each of Charlie's brackets. In this one, we'd likely play Albany - Alabama - Va Tech (or possibly Marquette or Arizona) - LSU (unless tOSU knocks them off). Then we face Indiana in the FF and SC in the NC

Stanford will likely play S. Utah - Creighton - Michigan (or maybe Baylor) - then Iowa (or perhaps UNC or Colorado) - then SC in the FF.

IU plays one of the "play in" teams Jackson or Morgan St - then ISU - FSU - ND - Utah - then us.

SC plays one of the "play in teams" Samford or Texas A&M - then Kansas - Texas - Duke and meets Stanford in the FF.

Could there be any upsets before the FF? Could Texas pull themselves together and beat SC? Maybe, if Taylor Jones is strong enough to play 30 mins, and if Gaston and Muhammad have career games. Could Utah upset IU? Definitely. Could ND? Maybe. Could Iowa beat Stanford in the Elite Eight? This is the most intriguing possibility, but would require one of the other shooters besides Clark to get hot, like Martin did against us, or Warnock or Marshall.

So maybe we play Utah in the FF, and then Iowa in the NC. That'd be a hoot!

I've gone on record as saying Indiana is an opponent I would hope to avoid. They are almost a spitting image of UConn except they have bench depth. Will find out in the next couple of weeks if my thoughts on Indiana are legit.

 

[Next 12]

Uconn is Uconn. Wherever we are bracketed , we will cope and be ready. The only game that counts is the last one and by then Uconn will have Caroline and Azzi back with enough games under their belts to be competitive. That will give Uconn 8 players and that should be enough as they are battle tested as no-one has ever been. GO HUSKIES!!!!

 

[Bone Dog]

I've gone on record as saying Indiana is an opponent I would hope to avoid. They are almost a spitting image of UConn except they have bench depth. Will find out in the next couple of weeks if my thoughts on Indiana are legit.

I think you'r probably right about that. I respect Teri Moren immensely. She's built an impressive program, and taken her time doing it. That said, there was a lot of talk last year about how we wouldn't get past them in the tournament, and then we blew them out. All of this success is new to them -- it's one thing to approach the regular season "one game at a time." But it's a lot harder in the tournament. I think cracks will show in the later rounds of the tournament.

 

[Gus Mahler]

I've gone on record as saying Indiana is an opponent I would hope to avoid. They are almost a spitting image of UConn except they have bench depth. Will find out in the next couple of weeks if my thoughts on Indiana are legit.

Seems to me your thoughts are legit now. They're a good team, with emphasis on team. They've got Grace Berger back now, and MacKenzie (sp?) Holmes is definitely legit. She's fun to watch. She plays a game like the centers of yesteryear. She's both efficient and reliable. I predict a WBCA All-American.

 

[Rowdy831]

USC will be #1 overall and UCONN will be #2. After that it will come down how well LSU plays USC and how they finish their schedule and who comes out on top between Indiana and Iowa. Stanford is out there but right now they are on the outside of the 1 seed looking in and will need Iowa or Indiana to lose to someone other than each other. I think LSU holds on to a 1 if they play SC close and don't lose to anyone else.

 

[Bone Dog]

USC will be #1 overall and UCONN will be #2. After that it will come down how well LSU plays USC and how they finish their schedule and who comes out on top between Indiana and Iowa. Stanford is out there but right now they are on the outside of the 1 seed looking in and will need Iowa or Indiana to lose to someone other than each other. I think LSU holds on to a 1 if they play SC close and don't lose to anyone else.

It’s odd to think of Stanford as being “on the outside looking in.” But what you say seems like it ought to be right. They kind of need to prove they’re as good as we usually see that they are. This seems unusual for them. The pg position has been their only weakness for two years now.

Last year they had several good role players who could run a pg by committee. This took the pressure off Haley Jones and they could be a dominating team, at least until the final four. The situation this year seems similar. Jump and Demetre are excellent shooting guards, but not great at pg. Lepolo may be growing into the position, but it’s a challenge, and until she takes full control their margin for error is small.

The program culture Tara has built is so strong that they’ve been able to overcome this and it’s been really impressive. It is surprising she hasn’t been able to recruit more point guards in the last few years. She has recruited a seemingly endless line of talented bigs and this has practically been a signature of the program.

SC, Stanford, UConn are the perennial powers because they build programs with strong team culture. The teams aren’t perfect at every position, but the whole tends to be so much more than the parts that they overcome obstacles. We haven’t seen a fourth program yet. IU may be a candidate judging from Teri Moren’s successes over the last few years. But it’s hard to find another one.

Can we imagine a final four this year that doesn’t include Stanford? Yes, it’s conceivable, but I’m having a hard time wrapping my mind around it. What an interesting year this is turning out to be.

 

[01Neaggrad02]

Things to think about moving forward.... #1 South Carolina and #3 LSU will play each other at least once, and then potentially a second time. There is a chance they will see each other in the SEC Championship.... if they do not that means one of them lost prior to the Championship game. So these teams which are ahead of us could potentially have one, two or more losses between now and when the seeding is announced. IF UCONN can go undefeated the remainder of the time they SHOULD be the second #1 seed behind South Carolina barring South Carolina falling completely apart. Personally I would love to see Stanford come in with the 4th #1 seed so they would potentially play SC in the final four... and hopefully we would play the winner

Of course I also think Iowa should be in SC bracket as their #2

 

[BRS24]

Y'all - tournament committee first reveal at halftime of Stanford-Arizona game tonight, 10:30 pm-ish. Waaaaay past my bedtime, so I'll amuse myself updating the chart tomorrow morning over a cuppa tea. I'm not anticipating anything drastic, as I'd bet it's was done before last night's game, but who knows. Six league games left, potential 3 BE tourney games before anything is settled.

 

[HuskyNan]

It’s February 9th. It’s speculation and good fuel for the talking heads, nothing more

 

[shiverz45]

I've gone on record as saying Indiana is an opponent I would hope to avoid. They are almost a spitting image of UConn except they have bench depth. Will find out in the next couple of weeks if my thoughts on Indiana are legit.

I would love to catch Indiana in the tournament. They are the only loss SC senior class has not revenged.

 

[BRS24]

Cross posting from the Feb first reveal thread

First NCAA Committee Reveal

If they beat SC on Sunday they will become the overall #1 but I would be shocked if that were to happen. In my mind LSU is a solid team that's coached by one of the greats in the sport but they are not one of the 4 best yet. I think LSU might have two chances to jump UCONN for a #1 seed -...

the-boneyard.com

 

[CL82]

Yes, please.

 

[BRS24]

"The chaos of the ACC race (six teams separated by two games) extends beyond the conference. Seven ACC teams among the top 24 teams on the S-curve -- three on the 3-seed line and three on the 6-seed line -- created myriad bracketing complications. Adjustments had to be made to keep those teams from potentially meeting in the second round of the NCAA tournament. The rules of bracketing allow teams to be moved one seed line to avoid such matchups and to maintain bracketing integrity or accommodate more viable travel. It's not ideal. Keeping the true seeds of teams is a goal of the committee, but sometimes seed adjustments are necessary. That's what happened this week thanks to the logjam of ACC teams. NC State was shifted from a No. 6 seed to a No. 7 seed, and Florida State from No. 6 seed to a No. 5 seed to keep the second round from looking like the ACC tournament quarterfinals."

Maryland and Duke swap seeds, welcome back Oklahoma, UNC drops to 5 seed.

Ten of the original beginning season teams still in the top 16. Next few weeks should be interesting.

 

[triaddukefan]

"The chaos of the ACC race (six teams separated by two games) extends beyond the conference. Seven ACC teams among the top 24 teams on the S-curve -- three on the 3-seed line and three on the 6-seed line -- created myriad bracketing complications. Adjustments had to be made to keep those teams from potentially meeting in the second round of the NCAA tournament. The rules of bracketing allow teams to be moved one seed line to avoid such matchups and to maintain bracketing integrity or accommodate more viable travel. It's not ideal. Keeping the true seeds of teams is a goal of the committee, but sometimes seed adjustments are necessary. That's what happened this week thanks to the logjam of ACC teams. NC State was shifted from a No. 6 seed to a No. 7 seed, and Florida State from No. 6 seed to a No. 5 seed to keep the second round from looking like the ACC tournament quarterfinals."

Maryland and Duke swap seeds, welcome back Oklahoma, UNC drops to 5 seed.
View attachment 84187

Ten of the original beginning season teams still in the top 16. Next few weeks should be interesting.

No nights off in the ACC

 

[BRS24]

Oregon is out of the field. Seven consecutive losses dropped the Ducks to 14-13, yet they continue to carry a No. 24 NET ranking. It's the most contradictory profile we've seen in the Bracketology era -- essentially a .500 record with a key metric in the 20s. Both the previously utilized RPI and the current NET rankings have occasional anomalies, but nothing quite as extreme. A pair of Rutgers squads is the closest any team's résumé has looked. In 2010, the Scarlet Knights were 18-14 with an RPI of 24 and strength of schedule of 4. That team suffered a three-game losing streak in February but managed a No. 9 seed. The following year, Rutgers was a 7-seed with an 18-12 record and an RPI of 23. Like 2010 Rutgers, Oregon could get to 18-14 with two wins to cap the regular season and two more in the Pac-12 tournament -- and it would likely get them in the NCAA tournament. A split or worse and the Ducks won't hear their name on Selection Sunday.

Welcome back UCLA, adios Colorado. TX up, MI down seeds. Seeds ping-ponging up and down this time of year seems to be the norm. Ten of the original top 16 seeds (regular season brackets) still in it. Unlike TX which has reappeared over last 5 brackets, TN and L'ville long gone.

 

[jdote33]

This recent bracket is probably the most favorable I've seen for UConn. I do think Kansas is sneaky good but I would be shocked if UConn didn't atleast make the final 4 if it ended up this way. No disrespect to Iowa though, I just think UConn matches up well with them.

 

[visitingcock]

"Oregon is out of the field. Seven consecutive losses dropped the Ducks to 14-13, yet they continue to carry a No. 24 NET ranking. It's the most contradictory profile we've seen in the Bracketology era -- essentially a .500 record with a key metric in the 20s. Both the previously utilized RPI and the current NET rankings have occasional anomalies, but nothing quite as extreme."

Apparently, there is a flaw in NET that over values "good losses." Oregon has played a lot of Quad One opponents, 15. However, their record is only 3-12 against those 15 schools. Plus, they have a Quad 2 loss.

There are only 23 teams, thus far, that have Quad One wins that equal or exceed losses. there are about 8 teams that need one or two more wins to get to that level. Oregon's losses exceed their Quad one wins by TEN. I hope NET finds the problem with the algorithm and corrects it for next year.

 

[Bone Dog]

This recent bracket is probably the most favorable I've seen for UConn. I do think Kansas is sneaky good but I would be shocked if UConn didn't atleast make the final 4 if it ended up this way. No disrespect to Iowa though, I just think UConn matches up well with them.

I agree. We've already beaten the main competition in this version of our path to the FF. Also, if I read this one correctly, we'd have a clearer path to the NC game, too, not having to face SC in the FF.

 

[CL82]

I will still take it!