Fanta on the impact of the portal on college basketball

[CL82]

 

[Austin316]

John is great at taking what a lot of people are saying is a negative into a positive. The fact of the matter is it’s a reality and the show goes on folks.

 

[auror]

We have to start looking at college basketball like European soccer. It used to be that the best clubs had the first pick of the best coming of age prospects. But now they're also going to frequently have the first picks of the overachievers from the lower clubs (and also the polished veterans of the lower clubs). The transfer portal and the transfer window are even basically the same phrase. There's going to be a more clear divide between the Haves and Have Nots divide than ever before.

BUT, the difference between the two had been shrinking over the last couple decades thanks to better coaching throughout the levels... YouTube/social media is a great equalizer for coaches everywhere willing to learn, better analytics available to all, and technology making it easier to scout in general.

The Haves have always existed, so fans of lower clubs (aka mid and lower majors) have always rooted a little differently. They try to win their league. They try to qualify for the tournament. Everything else is gravy. Usually the lower clubs that make runs are full of upperclassmen who often graduated soon thereafter anyways, so poaching isn't even really that drastic a change, it might just happen literally 1 year earlier.

So the funnel to the top is wider, but the floor is closing up towards the top anyways. Not much is going to change, and there are plenty of ways to have fun as a fan of any level of team. There's still the tournament and automatic qualifiers. Anything can happen.

 

[UKemba15]

We have to start looking at college basketball like European soccer. It used to be that the best clubs had the first pick of the best coming of age prospects. But now they're also going to frequently have the first picks of the overachievers from the lower clubs (and also the polished veterans of the lower clubs). The transfer portal and the transfer window are even basically the same phrase. There's going to be a more clear divide between the Haves and Have Nots divide than ever before.

BUT, the difference between the two had been shrinking over the last couple decades thanks to better coaching throughout the levels... YouTube/social media is a great equalizer for coaches everywhere willing to learn, better analytics available to all, and technology making it easier to scout in general.

The Haves have always existed, so fans of lower clubs (aka mid and lower majors) have always rooted a little differently. They try to win their league. They try to qualify for the tournament. Everything else is gravy. Usually the lower clubs that make runs are full of upperclassmen who often graduated soon thereafter anyways, so poaching isn't even really that drastic a change, it might just happen literally 1 year earlier.

So the funnel to the top is wider, but the floor is closing up towards the top anyways. Not much is going to change, and there are plenty of ways to have fun as a fan of any level of team. There's still the tournament and automatic qualifiers. Anything can happen.

“Ties and no playoffs? Again, my job just got a lot easier.”

 

[Chief00]

There are a lot of new variables in the environment (OTE, no transfer wait year, a year’s worth of extra eligibility growing the player population, war instability overseas making that option more difficult, etc). It will take some time to sort it out, but signing and keeping talent is an immediate must.

 

[HCCForever]

Take a hike Mike.

 

[HuskyHawk]

There are a lot of new variables in the environment (OTE, no transfer wait year, a year’s worth of extra eligibility growing the player population, war instability overseas making that option more difficult, etc). It will take some time to sort it out, but signing and keeping talent is an immediate must.

Agreed. Let's assess this in a couple years when everything else is normal. That also means HS kids, HS coaches, college coaches adjusting at the recruitment phase. It wouldn't surprise me if some players who might have gone to a top program to sit, choose instead to go where there is playing time early, knowing they can transfer out.

 

[BIIIG]

Two biggest things I see to keep an eye on how they play out over the next few years are (I know they are stretches but im intrigued by if they are possible, and if they are possible, if they pan out for any schools).

1. Who figures this out. In the age of the one-and-done player it seemed like Caliparri figured it out quick. Not to say he was first, but he may have been the most noticeable with players like Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, and John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins, before schools like Duke and Kansas started to throw their hat into the ring and landing these players as well. It will be interesting to see if one school/coach figures out this transfer portal situation before the others and has a 5 year window of hanging with the blue bloods they ordinarily wouldn't be able to like Memphis did in the late 2000s.

2. Pipelines. Rather than recruiting freshman to ride the bench, play 10 minutes a game in minimal opportunities it will be interesting to see if schools develop relationships with one another, where guys they would have been recruited are groomed at mid-majors. This is definitely a stretch, but imagine if UConn and UMass had a sort of pipeline relationship where instead of riding the bench at UConn, Diggins went to UMass with the notion that he'd be able to transfer up to UConn after his sophomore year. Its a win for Diggins, he gets to play from the jump and grows as a player, its a win for UMass, they get a player that ordinarily wouldn't commit to a school like UMass as a top 100 recruit, and its a win for UConn they got a leg up on a junior transfer with playing experience, who has been learning the UConn style of play for two years. Obviously with coahces bouncing around and teams playing for themselves rather than bigger schools there would definitely be conflicts of interest, but I do wonder if we see something along these lines start to form between schools with the transfer portal present.

 

[CL82]

Two biggest things I see to keep an eye on how they play out over the next few years are (I know they are stretches but im intrigued by if they are possible, and if they are possible, if they pan out for any schools).

1. Who figures this out. In the age of the one-and-done player it seemed like Caliparri figured it out quick. Not to say he was first, but he may have been the most noticeable with players like Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, and John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins, before schools like Duke and Kansas started to throw their hat into the ring and landing these players as well. It will be interesting to see if one school/coach figures out this transfer portal situation before the others and has a 5 year window of hanging with the blue bloods they ordinarily wouldn't be able to like Memphis did in the late 2000s.

2. Pipelines. Rather than recruiting freshman to ride the bench, play 10 minutes a game in minimal opportunities it will be interesting to see if schools develop relationships with one another, where guys they would have been recruited are groomed at mid-majors. This is definitely a stretch, but imagine if UConn and UMass had a sort of pipeline relationship where instead of riding the bench at UConn, Diggins went to UMass with the notion that he'd be able to transfer up to UConn after his sophomore year. Its a win for Diggins, he gets to play from the jump and grows as a player, its a win for UMass, they get a player that ordinarily wouldn't commit to a school like UMass as a top 100 recruit, and its a win for UConn they got a leg up on a junior transfer with playing experience, who has been learning the UConn style of play for two years. Obviously with coahces bouncing around and teams playing for themselves rather than bigger schools there would definitely be conflicts of interest, but I do wonder if we see something along these lines start to form between schools with the transfer portal present.

Yeah, somehow, I’m guessing that UMass doesn’t wanna be our minor-league franchise.

 

[superjohn]

I'm not really worried about parity and the rich getting richer at the expense of the smaller teams. Some players who perform really well will switch to top teams but other big time recruits will move down to smaller programs where they can star but a lot of kids will get lost in the shuffle. They're looking for greener grass and they'll be left with a patch of dirt.

Having over 30% of D1 players transferring is not good for the overall longterm health of the game.

 

[auror]

Yeah, somehow, I’m guessing that UMass doesn’t wanna be our minor-league franchise.

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if something like this does happen. It's kinda what happens already with prep schools. The kids have the real say, opinions, and you have to develop relationships with them, but the coaches will recommend certain programs based on relationships with our coaches. So what if we just have a good relationship with a mid-major coach? We recommend to a prep school to send some guys we like but aren't UConn level yet (say an Avery Brown type) to a certain mid major. Then if/when that player plays well, we get the first recommendation. And we keep in touch with said player throughout (to whatever degree tampering rules allow).

Like what if Kimani were the head coach of UMass? He'd love to keep his breakout stars, but they're leaving no matter what. So where should they go? Well Dan Hurley is great...

 

[HuskyHawk]

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if something like this does happen. It's kinda what happens already with prep schools. The kids have the real say, opinions, and you have to develop relationships with them, but the coaches will recommend certain programs based on relationships with our coaches. So what if we just have a good relationship with a mid-major coach? We recommend to a prep school to send some guys we like but aren't UConn level yet (say an Avery Brown type) to a certain mid major. Then if/when that player plays well, we get the first recommendation. And we keep in touch with said player throughout (to whatever degree tampering rules allow).

Like what if Kimani were the head coach of UMass? He'd love to keep his breakout stars, but they're leaving no matter what. So where should they go? Well Dan Hurley is great...

Yeah, I didn't go this far in my comment, but hypothetically, some schools could develop a track record of making guys ranked 150+ into high level P5 starters. Tristen Newton for example. Just like Prep Schools do. That could become a recruiting tool for them.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

'take a hike mike?'
moar like 'take a lap, dude'


signed 'not a fan.'
oops, forgot the zinger part:
hey, johnny bag o donuts, my bud rocky, not too much diff in age than u, is cash's official assistant gm. mebbe iffn u spend the next 20 years chasing every available broadcast assignment for west idaho hs lacross games, u might get the call for weekend backup sports anchor at ch 8. u already got the half zip pullover thing down.
mebbe.

 

[freshler40]

Two biggest things I see to keep an eye on how they play out over the next few years are (I know they are stretches but im intrigued by if they are possible, and if they are possible, if they pan out for any schools).

1. Who figures this out. In the age of the one-and-done player it seemed like Caliparri figured it out quick. Not to say he was first, but he may have been the most noticeable with players like Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, and John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins, before schools like Duke and Kansas started to throw their hat into the ring and landing these players as well. It will be interesting to see if one school/coach figures out this transfer portal situation before the others and has a 5 year window of hanging with the blue bloods they ordinarily wouldn't be able to like Memphis did in the late 2000s.

2. Pipelines. Rather than recruiting freshman to ride the bench, play 10 minutes a game in minimal opportunities it will be interesting to see if schools develop relationships with one another, where guys they would have been recruited are groomed at mid-majors. This is definitely a stretch, but imagine if UConn and UMass had a sort of pipeline relationship where instead of riding the bench at UConn, Diggins went to UMass with the notion that he'd be able to transfer up to UConn after his sophomore year. Its a win for Diggins, he gets to play from the jump and grows as a player, its a win for UMass, they get a player that ordinarily wouldn't commit to a school like UMass as a top 100 recruit, and its a win for UConn they got a leg up on a junior transfer with playing experience, who has been learning the UConn style of play for two years. Obviously with coahces bouncing around and teams playing for themselves rather than bigger schools there would definitely be conflicts of interest, but I do wonder if we see something along these lines start to form between schools with the transfer portal present.

This smells of anti-trust rules that the NCAA has gotten a pass from.