Excited about the future after a loss

[pj]

Those 24 and 25 win numbers sound like a stretch. I'd be thrilled with 20 or 21 wins.

It's a 31 game schedule, followed by the AAC tourney and NCAA or NIT. So far they've won 75%, which if kept up would translate to 23-8 or 24-7 plus the post-season. I don't see the remaining schedule as dramatically tougher than what we've been through. 20 or 21 wins would be a major disappointment.

 

[intlzncster]

It's a 31 game schedule, followed by the AAC tourney and NCAA or NIT. So far they've won 75%, which if kept up would translate to 23-8 or 24-7 plus the post-season. I don't see the remaining schedule as dramatically tougher than what we've been through. 20 or 21 wins would be a major disappointment.

Conference play is notoriously fickle for most teams.

 

[spudzj6]

It's a 31 game schedule, followed by the AAC tourney and NCAA or NIT. So far they've won 75%, which if kept up would translate to 23-8 or 24-7 plus the post-season. I don't see the remaining schedule as dramatically tougher than what we've been through. 20 or 21 wins would be a major disappointment.

Major disappointment in our eyes and probably the players, but not the coaching staff. It's a process, and Hurley is working through it. Honestly, I see us as a true bubble team, and the loss to arizona will actually hurt down the road. The AAC will be tougher than anyone expected. Houston/Cincy will be tougher than the Arizona team we just lost to. We seem to have UCF's number, but they are not a sleeper team. Theres a stretch in Feb with @ Memphis/Houston/@ SMU/Cincy...will be our toughest four game stretch of the season - not only with the level of competition, but travel (note: there is a week between Houston and @ SMU). My guess is 19-10/20-9...true bubble team/outside looking in. Losing to anyone not named Houston/Cincy/UCF will be a killer.

Again, if we can say we are in the second weekend of the tourney next year, and spending the majority of our time in the top 25 for the foreseeable future, this year's "disappointing" record will be all part of the process - changing the culture is more important than winning this year for long term success.

 

[tzznandrew]

It's a 31 game schedule, followed by the AAC tourney and NCAA or NIT. So far they've won 75%, which if kept up would translate to 23-8 or 24-7 plus the post-season. I don't see the remaining schedule as dramatically tougher than what we've been through. 20 or 21 wins would be a major disappointment.

I think that's not quite true. 5 of our 6 wins are against sub-200 schools. There are only 6 more of those. That gets them to 12-2 if you account every one a win. Say every 150+ is an easy win. That gets them to 13-2. Every other game will be a dogfight, and you have them winning 10-11 of the 15 games against Top 125 (ish) competition. I'd like to believe that, but I think 7-8 is more reasonable.

KenPom

Games Played
19 Syracuse
41 Iowa
47 Arizona
236 Cornell
261 Morehead St.
277 UMass Lowell
278 UMKC
339 New Hampshire

Games to Come

17 Florida State
18 Villanova
36 Cincy
36 Cincy
40 Houston
43 UCF
43 UCF
75 Temple
75 Temple
82 WSU
82 WSU
87 SMU
87 SMU
123 Memphis
128 Tulsa
190 Tulane
227 USF
245 Drexel
255 ECU
255 ECU
302 Manhattan
312 Lafayette

 

[pj]

Reasonable analyses. But, if we win all games to Kenpom 75 and below, and lose all above except the win against Syracuse, then we're 22-9 heading into the AAC tourney. I like our chances to win a few games in the AAC tourney, we'll improve more than other teams as the kids get used to each other and to Hurley's coaching.