Excellent lineup analysis | The Boneyard

Excellent lineup analysis

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Alex is not doing much statistically. Once he gets going then the results should improve.
 

fleudslipcon

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I didn't see anything about AO and AD not performing well together in that article. The only two points the article made is that JC is experimenting with different lineups and that the best lineup in the last three games was the line up of SN, RB, JL, TO and AO. The author indicates these were the players on the floor at the end of those games. I'm not sure he was accurate.

He did point out that the data can be skewed because end of game situations are different than the rest of the game and he is correct. He pointed out that Harvard took a lot of shots that was not part of their normal offense in trying to make up the deficit at the end of the game.

And that makes sense. Furthermore JC has the team tighten up on defense during this interval. He almost plays the entire game to win it in the last five minutes which why he is a stickler on players foul numbers. It can be exacerbating to the fan watching teams catching up to UConn and UConn never putting them away, but that is offset by his having the best combo of players on the floor at the end of each game. This is not to under emphasize that he is experiment with lineups and development of plays which also impacts the point spread.

As the team develops over the season, they learn how to play defense better. They cover players better without fouling, learn to switch better and know where their players are on the floor and what their players do in various situations. Currently there are many plays in which UConn players are losing rebounds because two UConn players are doing the same thing, or they lose loose balls by two Uconn players going after the ball.
 

Waquoit

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I know I will sound like a Luddite, but I'm not ready to buy into sabremetrics in hoop to any large degree. KenPom is the gold standard for this stuff and he consistantly underrated the National Champs last year. Even after they won 11 straight beating 7 ranked teams, didn't he have them ranked around 9th?
 

Chin Diesel

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In Don Amore's article/blog he has a key quote from JC as we examine lineup combinations going forward.

Roscoe Smith, who regained a starting job last game, is getting a lot of work at the 4 position, Calhoun said. He brings the quickness of a 3 to that spot. "We play a lot of quick 4's," Calhoun said

http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn...in-the-mix-20111215,0,4897197.story?track=rss

For those with short memories, RS did a great job rebounding in traffic, getting in passing lanes and closing out on the perimeter. He played over 20 mpg in the BET and the NCAA tourney. And, as long as his defense stays solid he's gonna keep getting 25 mpg the rest of the season. Neither Olander or Oriakhi are capable of playing the perimeter or passing lanes as well as RS.
 
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I know I will sound like a Luddite, but I'm not ready to buy into sabremetrics in hoop to any large degree. KenPom is the gold standard for this stuff and he consistantly underrated the National Champs last year. Even after they won 11 straight beating 7 ranked teams, didn't he have them ranked around 9th?

I believe that you are correct. UConn, after winning it all was ranked 10 in his final poll. The one "statistic" that UConn scored high in with KenPom was "luck". I guess that that was his statistical equalizer.
His site is no longer free, and I find that a bit galling. Last I saw, UConn was ranked 22 on the site.
 
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Kevin Duffy does a nice job. He is an up and coming writer
 
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I believe that you are correct. UConn, after winning it all was ranked 10 in his final poll. The one "statistic" that UConn scored high in with KenPom was "luck". I guess that that was his statistical equalizer.
His site is no longer free, and I find that a bit galling. Last I saw, UConn was ranked 22 on the site.

Actually has us 23 and Cal, STL, and Bama ahead of us. How can Wisconsin be #1 with 2 losses (one at home)? I like it that we get no respect.
 
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Lineup combinations/numbers are interesting, but I think momentum plays too big of a role in college basketball for them to be a tell-all. I think if you watch a team enough, the right lineups are more of a gut feel in comparison to these studies.

Assuming we stay healthy, I do like that this UConn team is a little less deep than year's past because with all due respect to previous teams, I think this team has less "weak links" in our rotation. The worst logical lineup JC puts out there now isn't that far off skill-wise from our best, and that sense of balance makes lineups less important than years' past.
 
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Predicting whether a basketball team will do well in March based on stats from the season is like predicting which cake in a baking contest will taste the best based on the ingredient list: sure, you can quickly conclude the cake with 50 eggs, the one with 2 cups of soy sauce, and the one with Bisquick in it won't nail the blue ribbon, but, beyond that, you're divining, not predicting.
 
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With Boatright
Minutes: 83
Points for: 149
Points against: 129
Assist/TO: 29/21
3-pointers: 13-for-27
Without Boatright
Minutes: 42
Points for: 71
Points against: 62
Assist/TO: 16/21
3-pointers: 10-for-20
In addition, the Huskies are hoisting up far more 3-pointers when he's out of the game. That's probably an indication of Boatright's ability to penetrate, draw help and dish. UConn doesn't have to settle for long jumpers when he's on the floor.

Am I somehow misreading these stats... or does this guy not know how to read (not even a matter of analysis, it's simply a matter of reading comprehension) the stats that he posts himself? We are shooting 13 for 27 3-pointers with Boatright on the floor, and 10 for 20 with him off the floor. So, how are we shooting MORE 3 pointers with him off the floor? Regardless, our 3 point percentages are very close to the same regardless of whether he is on or off the floor... 48% with him on the floor and 50% with him off the floor. Don't really think that 2% difference has anything to do with Boatright... but that last section of his article that I quoted is pretty much completely off base. I don't see 3 point shooting as an issue of discussion regarding "differences with/without Boatright on the floor".. aside from the fact that we are taking a bit more and still making roughly the same percentage (a good thing, I think).

Am I just really tired and completely misunderstanding or analyzing the stats... or is this part of the article as outrageously wrong as it appears to be? Kind of funny actually... you'd think someone at CTPost would catch that before publishing. I honestly wonder how much proofreading/editing is even done, if any, on some news articles sometimes.
 
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27 attempts in 83 minutes, versus 20 attempts in 42 minutes.
 
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Ahhh... clearly I should go to bed. So we are taking more 3 point shots per minute with him off the floor. Makes sense. I'm tired, forgive me lol. Time to get some sleep. Can't wait for Sunday!
 
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