EvanMiya ratings for UConn Lineups and Players

[UConnJim]

Here are the EvanMiya ratings of various UConn lineups and the players offensive and defensive ratings. It's only 4 cupcake games and there have been a limited number of lineups, but there are some insights. (Rated by Adjusted Team Offensive Efficiency minus Adjusted Team Defensive Efficiency)

Best 4 Player Lineups:
1) Ball/Diarra/Karaban/Reed
2) Ball/Diarra/Karaban/McNeeley
3) Diarra/Karaban/McNeeley/Reed
4) Ball/Johnson/Karaban/McNeeley
5) Karaban/Mahaney/McNeeley/Reed

Best 3 Player Lineups:
1) Ball/Diarra/Karaban
2) Diarra/Karaban/Reed
3) Ball/Karaban/Reed
4) Karaban/McNeeley/Reed
5) Ball/McNeeley/Reed

Best 2 Player Lineups:
1) Diarra/Ross
2) Ball/Diarra
3) Reed/Diarra
4) Ross/Stewart
5) Ball/Reed

And, here are the player offensive and defensive ratings (he uses OBPR and DBPR)

Offensive OBPR:
1) Karaban 4.32
2) Ball 3.18
3) Diarra 3.10
4) Mahaney 2.78
5) McNeeley 2.31
6) Nowell 2.23
7) Stewart 2.17
8) Reed 1.72
9) Johnson 1.55
10) Abraham 0.79
11) Ross 0.78

Defensive DBPR:
1) Diarra 2.83
2) McNeeley 2.59
3) Karaban 2.33
4) Reed 2.16
5) Nowell 1.91
5) Ross 1.91
7) Johnson 1.62
8) Stewart 1.51
9) Abraham 1.00
10) Mahaney 0.72
10) Ball 0.72

 

[BuffaloHusky]

We will let Danny and the staff figure this out but my gut is that Reed is better off playing with Mahaney as he is the more effective screener and Johnson is better playing with Diarra because Diarra is better beating his man of the dribble and better at the lob game. On a similar note, the Diarra/Johnson combo is also incredibly fast and I'd like to see Ross in combination with two of them.

 

[bendm]

lol He ranks 2,3, and 4 player lineups but not 5???

 

[nomar]

Weird that Alex is in every top-4, and all but 1 top-3, but 0 top-2.

 

[UConnJim]

lol He ranks 2,3, and 4 player lineups but not 5???

There has been only one five player lineup rated for UConn so far this year so I didn't think it was valuable information. But, the starting 5 was ranked 6th in the Big East.

 

[Umami Zen]

We're a young team-talented-with two transfers from different D-1 programs. We're not a team like the last two years. We're different but really good. The next 10 games (or so) we're playing Top 25 teams. We'll know how good we can be by Jan 1. It won't be pretty-But we'll figure it out by BE season.

 

[Scrappy3]

Watching these other games it shows up
On defense
Huge difference between Diarra and Mahaney. Personally would start Diarra and nowell would back up.

 

[superjohn]

Here are the EvanMiya ratings of various UConn lineups and the players offensive and defensive ratings. It's only 4 cupcake games and there have been a limited number of lineups, but there are some insights. (Rated by Adjusted Team Offensive Efficiency minus Adjusted Team Defensive Efficiency)

Best 4 Player Lineups:
1) Ball/Diarra/Karaban/Reed
2) Ball/Diarra/Karaban/McNeeley
3) Diarra/Karaban/McNeeley/Reed
4) Ball/Johnson/Karaban/McNeeley
5) Karaban/Mahaney/McNeeley/Reed

Best 3 Player Lineups:
1) Ball/Diarra/Karaban
2) Diarra/Karaban/Reed
3) Ball/Karaban/Reed
4) Karaban/McNeeley/Reed
5) Ball/McNeeley/Reed

Best 2 Player Lineups:
1) Diarra/Ross
2) Ball/Diarra
3) Reed/Diarra
4) Ross/Stewart
5) Ball/Reed

And, here are the player offensive and defensive ratings (he uses OBPR and DBPR)

Offensive OBPR:
1) Karaban 4.32
2) Ball 3.18
3) Diarra 3.10
4) Mahaney 2.78
5) McNeeley 2.31
6) Nowell 2.23
7) Stewart 2.17
8) Reed 1.72
9) Johnson 1.55
10) Abraham 0.79
11) Ross 0.78

Defensive DBPR:
1) Diarra 2.83
2) McNeeley 2.59
3) Karaban 2.33
4) Reed 2.16
5) Nowell 1.91
5) Ross 1.91
7) Johnson 1.62
8) Stewart 1.51
9) Abraham 1.00
10) Mahaney 0.72
10) Ball 0.72

Does he not realize 5 players play for each side in basketball?

 

[superjohn]

We're a young team-talented-with two transfers from different D-1 programs. We're not a team like the last two years. We're different but really good. The next 10 games (or so) we're playing Top 25 teams. We'll know how good we can be by Jan 1. It won't be pretty-But we'll figure it out by BE season.

We're not a young team. Our top 7 players are a junior who is a back to back national champion, a sophomore who is a national champion, a freshman, a junior, a senior back to back champion, a 5th year senior back to back champion, and a junior.

 

[alphasigko]

And the best 5-player lineup is?

 

[Umami Zen]

We're not a young team. Our top 7 players are a junior who is a back to back national champion, a sophomore who is a national champion, a freshman, a junior, a senior back to back champion, a 5th year senior back to back champion, and a junior.

Perhaps I should have used the word "inexperienced". We have four new starters-our juniors except for AK are new to our Program-our sophs had very little PT last year-our freshmen are new to CBB. Talent is abundant. Never the issue. IMO-Blending together as a team will take some time vs quality opponents. I believe they'll get there.

 

[caw]

I don't pay for his stuff but his free stuff says the top 5 man lineup is Ball/Diarra/Karaban/Reed/Ross.

It also says UConn's best game was it's last one from an Off and Def standpoint.

 

[UConnJim]

I don't pay for his stuff but his free stuff says the top 5 man lineup is Ball/Diarra/Karaban/Reed/Ross.

It also says UConn's best game was it's last one from an Off and Def standpoint.

There is only one 5 man lineup with enough possessions (30+) to draw any conclusions and that is the starting lineup. The lineup you posted has only 10 possessions as a group.

 

[jibsey]

McNeeley will shoot from the outside better than he has. That’s coming.

 

[Tenspro2002]

You have to wonder how predictive this stuff is at this point in the year, with a tiny sample against bad teams.

I wonder what it would have said at this point in 2022 or 2023.

 

[RuffRuff]

You have to wonder how predictive this stuff is at this point in the year, with a tiny sample against bad teams.

I wonder what it would have said at this point in 2022 or 2023.

I’d say moderately.

With Liam, I’m expecting more freshman learning curve against real teams than him turning into a sniper. This next round of games is likely to be an adjustment versus a blossoming.

 

[husky429]

I wonder what value something like a 2- or 3-man lineup stat has in a game played with 5 people. I don't know anything about it, but I'm trying to think like a coach. What am I supposed to do with this information?

 

[WhereistheDove?]

McNeeley will shoot from the outside better than he has. That’s coming.

He is currently shooting 39% on 4.5 attempts a game. I’d love if he improved, but that would be truly prolific shooting for a freshman. Pretty much exactly what Karaban did as a freshman.

 

[RuffRuff]

He is currently shooting 39% on 4.5 attempts a game. I’d love if he improved, but that would be truly prolific shooting for a freshman. Pretty much exactly what Karaban did as a freshman.

If he can shoot 39% against good competition that’s great. Anything over that is gravy.

 

[UConnJim]

You have to wonder how predictive this stuff is at this point in the year, with a tiny sample against bad teams.

I wonder what it would have said at this point in 2022 or 2023.

I don't have the early season data, but I compared the top 5 UConn players the past 2 years vs the top 5 UConn this year so far. It really shows how special last year's team was.

2022/2023
11) Jackson
15) Clingan
18) Newton
56) Hawkins
72) Sanogo

2023/2024
2) Clingan
6) Newton
7) Spencer
15) Castle
20) Karaban

2024/2024 (minimum 100 possessions)
18) Karaban
44) Diarra
94) McNeeley
215) Ball
248) Reed (was 2070 at Michigan last year)

Change since last year:
Karaban 18 (vs 20 last year)
Diarra 44 (vs 43)
Ball 215 (vs 1089)
Reed 248 (vs 2070)
Stewart 280 (vs 911)
Mahaney 318 (vs 159)
Johnson 375 (vs 616)

 

[RuffRuff]

I don't have the early season data, but I compared the top 5 UConn players the past 2 years vs the top 5 UConn this year so far. It really shows how special last year's team was.

2022/2023
11) Jackson
15) Clingan
18) Newton
56) Hawkins
72) Sanogo

2023/2024
2) Clingan
6) Newton
7) Spencer
15) Castle
20) Karaban

2024/2024 (minimum 100 possessions)
18) Karaban
44) Diarra
94) McNeeley
215) Ball
248) Reed (was 2070 at Michigan last year)

Change since last year:
Karaban 18 (vs 20 last year)
Diarra 44 (vs 43)
Ball 215 (vs 1089)
Reed 248 (vs 2070)
Stewart 280 (vs 911)
Mahaney 318 (vs 159)
Johnson 375 (vs 616)

Nice grab.

Really think if we are going to evolve to a NC contender this year, Solo becoming a dynamic all around player is pivotal. Need a few core pieces to turn into rocks that we feel really good about being on the floor in clutch possessions. For a guy that’s shooting as well as him so far it’s telling that he’s still sub 200 overall.

AK, Diarra, McNeeley (with time) and Reed will likely be that. Need Solo to leap into the top 50-75 range minimum to be that constant in the back court. 19 of his 33 shots to date have been threes. While he’s shooting those well, would love to see his mentality shift to being more of a playmaker than waiting for/hunting 3s and to go get things than wait for them to come to him, ala an Ajax or Steph. He has the physicality for it that’s for sure, just needs to find some inner dawg.

 

[Inyatkin]

2023/2024
2) Clingan
6) Newton
7) Spencer
15) Castle
20) Karaban

I know, old news, but five guys among the top 20 players in the country is absurd

 

[auror]

You have to wonder how predictive this stuff is at this point in the year, with a tiny sample against bad teams.

I wonder what it would have said at this point in 2022 or 2023.

Not very predictive. If we had played a tougher schedule, maybe a bit more. But way too much garbage time included in the on/offs at this point (unless he filters it out, which I don't think, and then the sample size is very small).

 

[auror]

I don't have the early season data, but I compared the top 5 UConn players the past 2 years vs the top 5 UConn this year so far. It really shows how special last year's team was.

2022/2023
11) Jackson
15) Clingan
18) Newton
56) Hawkins
72) Sanogo

2023/2024
2) Clingan
6) Newton
7) Spencer
15) Castle
20) Karaban

2024/2024 (minimum 100 possessions)
18) Karaban
44) Diarra
94) McNeeley
215) Ball
248) Reed (was 2070 at Michigan last year)

Change since last year:
Karaban 18 (vs 20 last year)
Diarra 44 (vs 43)
Ball 215 (vs 1089)
Reed 248 (vs 2070)
Stewart 280 (vs 911)
Mahaney 318 (vs 159)
Johnson 375 (vs 616)

He must have tweaked his algorithm, because I distinctly remember Clingan finishing #2 in 2022-2023 behind Edey (and then again same result in 2024).

 

[RuffRuff]

I know, old news, but five guys among the top 20 players in the country is absurd

Part of why they were so good is because they played with each other. Super talented but also sum of parts. Having 25% of the top 20 players in the country is ridiculous. Not sure how long this metric has been around but would be curious to what the second best result is in its existence, and if anywhere close.