Evaluating Recruiting Classes: how can we find the right balance between quality and quantity?

[Fightin Choke]

Back when vowelguy was treating us to his composite ratings and calculating his index of recruiting class ratings, there was always spirited debate of how to determine the correct balance between quality and quantity in his (proprietary) formula. Posters complained that large classes of lower quality recruits outscored smaller classes of elite recruits, and that didn't seem to pass the eye test. Well, Blue Star has been evaluating recruiting classes the past few years and below I list their top 15 classes of 2016 along with their site's ranking of each player:

1. Maryland: 10, 15, 23, 25, 33, 67

2. Louisville: 12, 24, 30, 57, 74

3. Texas: 1, 17, 36

4. Oregon: 70, 75, 78, 177, 182

5. Baylor: 2, 13, 54

6. Vanderbilt: 9, 50, 117, 157

7. USC: 18, 45, 101, 134

8. UConn: 3, 44, 111

9. TCU: 11, 86, 122, 189

10. Notre Dame: 6, 8

11. UNC: 47, 87, 114, 128, 136, 208, 227

12. Michigan: 29, 102, 113, 126

13. Stanford: 42, 43, 85, foreign

14. Nebraska: 21, 94, 124, 175, 220

15. Wisconsin: 52, 133, 142, 215, 250, 296, 400

Blue Star Recruiting rankings link

Oregon is their 4th best recruiting class, despite the fact that Oregon has no top 50 recruits. Wouldn't you rather have Baylor's class of 3 than Oregon's class of 5? Isn't Notre Dame's class of only 2 recruits better than TCU's class of 4? How is Wisconsin's class even top 20? I wonder where vowelguy and his formula are now? I miss your contributions, VG. Please come back. You are missed!

 

[rvwsleep]

You are correct. Whatever weighting system they are using, it is woefully inadequate. I believe the solution is weighing the the top of the class (either individually or in small groups. i.e. 1-5, 1-10) with a value that is larger than the one that is currently being used.
As far as the present class rankings go, think of it this way.
If Oregon had 3 consecutive #4 classes identical to this years (70, 75, 78, 177, 182), they would have 15 players and probably a top 20-30 team.
If Baylor had 3 consecutive #5 classes identical to this years (2, 13, 54), they would have 9 players and would be fighting for a National Championship.
P.S. I miss VG's lists also.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

There are very few programs who can be selective enough to leave scholarships on the table. And, stuff happens. Muffet has to be feverishly figuring out the loss of her rookie guard who apparently figured large in her plans for the year. I'm sure every coach goes through the analysis now and then of: Do I offer this kid, she's marginal, knowing the wrong call does the program and the kid a disservice. Hard choices. Me, if I'm a coach whose program isn't in the top 10, I'm taking everyone I can get and hoping things shake out good.

 

[BroadwayVa]

There are very few programs who can be selective enough to leave scholarships on the table. And, stuff happens. Muffet has to be feverishly figuring out the loss of her rookie guard who apparently figured large in her plans for the year. I'm sure every coach goes through the analysis now and then of: Do I offer this kid, she's marginal, knowing the wrong call does the program and the kid a disservice. Hard choices. Me, if I'm a coach whose program isn't in the top 10, I'm taking everyone I can get and hoping things shake out good.

If I'm a top 10 coach, (bad premise to start with) who hasn't won the NC or been in the Final 4 in a few year--I'd be looking for another job.
I certainly would NOT take anyone who walked through my doors. If I am a Geno type coach (stupid premise he wouldn't be in this position) but if I am, I'd look for quality using my own intelligence not polls to rate the players. Quantity hardly ever denote quality--but there are times, 2000,2001, 20o2
Do not think this as argumentative --just difference of opinion. RockyMTblue2, I respect your opinion.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

RockyMTblue2, I respect your opinion.

Do I bite? I'm just an old teddy bear. Geno has been pretty direct in some interviews about how too many coaches in WCBB are just very comfy collecting their paychecks and doing the same old, same old. So Holly should look for some other job that will pay her $450,000 a year after the end of the current campaign? Ditto Brenda- more $ I suspect. Then, there's Muffet - same dilemma. How many years has Jeff had?

No, I did not really mean take anyone, but for the none-top 10, what do you have to lose to take that last kid into the class, particularly since the rating services and your own eyes (for 2-3 games maybe) are not infallible.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Do I bite? I'm just an old teddy bear. Geno has been pretty direct in some interviews about how too many coaches in WCBB are just very comfy collecting their paychecks and doing the same old, same old. So Holly should look for some other job that will pay her $450,000 a year after the end of the current campaign? Ditto Brenda- more $ I suspect. Then, there's Muffet - same dilemma. How many years has Jeff had?

No, I did not really mean take anyone, but for the none-top 10, what do you have to lose to take that last kid into the class, particularly since the rating services and your own eyes (for 2-3 games maybe) are not infallible.

Ouch!! Fangs are damaging. I have been less than generous with your comments and down right nasty with my Tenn comments. So I wanted you to not take my comment in that vane.

If available and "vetted for talent, energy, coachability, potential" I would take anyone in the top 150. I took your comment to mean anyone who walked in --you'd take and sort out the chaff from the grain later. Apparently that was not what was said. Geno with his 2016 team has proven your point (except for quantity).

Obviously, Geno has not taken loads of really good players--Kiah is just one of them.

 

[UcMiami]

It is a fools game to rank classes in any meaningful way for a number of reasons:
1. The ranking of players is always a crap shoot on a national level - there are wide variations between services, with US players that fall through the cracks because of exposure, and foreign players whose ranking are meaningless if they get ranked at all. So you are starting with bad input, and as they say garbage in garbage out

2. There are always surprises in the way players develop - Stef is a nice example, and Butler at least in terms of her freshman year should probably have been ranked top ten, but she developed a lot in her senior HS year after rankings were pretty well established.

3. The quality especially at the top is not linear - Parker, Moore, or Griner were transcendent players far superior to a simple #1 ranking and in some years the quality from 1-10 could be pretty similar, while other years the top 2 or 3 players are exceptional and the rest are average. Stewart and Moriah as a 1-2 punch is an example of that.

4. Team needs are also a huge factor and for example this 2016 class for Baylor is interesting - they got two very highly rated centers in 2015 and now have the highest ranked center (#2) in 2016 which probably has less value to them than it would have to most other teams out there - they might have been better off getting a highly ranked PG or forward/wing in terms of balancing their roster. And a team with only 7 players returning next year needs a volume class just to cover practices and the inevitable illnesses/injures so getting 5 moderate players has more value to them than a team with 10 returning players - that team wants a smaller higher quality class.

This is a fun debate for fans, but it really has little use for coaches. It ends up being like the SOS and RPI standings - the only important thing is what happens on the court and the only important ranking is the result of the last game of the year.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Ouch!! Fangs are damaging. I have been less than generous with your comments and down right nasty with my Tenn comments. So I wanted you to not take my comment in that vane.

If available and "vetted for talent, energy, coachability, potential" I would take anyone in the top 150. I took your comment to mean anyone who walked in --you'd take and sort out the chaff from the grain later. Apparently that was not what was said. Geno with his 2016 team has proven your point (except for quantity).

Obviously, Geno has not taken loads of really good players--Kiah is just one of them.

Life is too short to hold a grudge over a post or two or twenty! We're all just following a game we love.

 

[Boreifs]

Ranking recruiting classes is Fantasy Basketball without having to put up any money. It is almost totally worthless in the real world.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Life is too short to hold a grudge over a post or two or twenty! We're all just following a game we love.

That to me is no longer cliche--oh the days grow short as you pass December. I may not always show it but I try to be more sensible and less vitriolic--doesn't always work.