ESPNW top 25

[bballnut90]

A couple of understated issues with the top teams: I'll skip all UConn's ?'s because they have been rehashed elsewhere extensively.

Both Oregon and Baylor are replacing their pg's. I don't know anything about Moore except that she played for USC. And I remember that Sadie Edwards started for USC. And just because Mulky hit a jackpot with Jackson is no reason to assume Cooper will do the same. Cooper is talented but she comes with baggage as this is school #3.

Baylor may have a wealth of size depth but that depth's experience in big games is limited to one player. This isn't a Dolson/Stewart/Stokes situation, at least not at this point. And Cox will be facing different defenders this season as she will surely draw several defenders that guarded Brown last season.

Neither team is coming into this season stronger than last.

The way I see it UConn starts the year a step or 2 behind both Oregon and Baylor but UConn has more upside going into the season, and a better history.

Moore had very good numbers at USC so I imagine she'll slide in well at Oregon. Oregon should be stronger though. They return pretty much everyone but Cazorla, so that's a full offseason to improve, plus they'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder this year.


And Baylor also has Smith who has experience in big games. She was outstanding in the championship game a year ago and likely draws a ton of attention offensively like Brown did. Would not be surprised if she leads the team in scoring this year.

 

[triaddukefan]

I don't think so. Notre Dame basically lost its entire team from a year ago. Keep in mind, they had 4 seniors who were all highly ranked recruits and 4 year contributors, plus Jackie Young who was highly ranked and a big contributor all 3 years. None of the players they have returning were top notch recruits like the ones they lost, and none of them were good enough to make a significant impact off the bench. Transfers will help and Peoples/Brunelle will too, but this is going to be a massive drop off for Notre Dame. I think they're ranked appropriately.

.

Yet they still lost 4 times and didnt repeat.

 

[tomcat]

This seems more realistic than a lot of previous polls. I might have swapped UConn and Stanford top start the season, just until both get themselves sorted out and we see what's what. And I agree with others who say that ND is ranked too low, if for no reason other than just because.

 

[JordyG]

I can't remember the last time there is no SEC & ACC team in the top 6? ND was always top 5 since joining the ACC and Maryland, NC, & Duke before that. One of Tennessee, LSU, South Carolina,and Mississippi, State have been repping SEC in the top 5. Still 5 of 15 ACC teams and 5 of the 14 SEC teams are ranked top 20. The PAC12 also has 5 of their 12 teams ranked top 20 with the Big 12 only having two lead by #2 Baylor and Big 10 having 2 top 20 teams lead by #5 Maryland. UConn at #3 is the only non-Power 5 school in the top 20., but next year I'd say with UConn in the Big East will allow that conference to compete with the other 5.

Still living in Oregon, the Pac12 love is pretty cool. #1 Oregon, #4 Stanford, & #6 Oregon State will get few challenges until conference play. The Ducks preseason schedule play only 1 ranked team-#7 Louisville at the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Isles pre-conference, but they do go to Storrs to play UConn Feb 3 for a Big Monday ESPN game. Stanford plays #15 Texas in Austin and a surprisingly #25 ranked Tennessee at home December 18. The Beavers go on the road to play #18 Miami November 29, but they could also play #21 Depaul and #9 Texas A&M in the preseason WNIT.

If those top PAC12 teams only lose to each other that may stick over the season with their top 6 rankings. Still early on, all 3 of those teams get November home exhibition games against Sue Bird, Diana Taurasi, and Napheesa Collier and the rest of the US National Team which might make an impression on voters depending on results. I personally have tickets for the game in Corvallis November 4 and Eugene against #1 Oregon on November 9. Can't wait.

Good to see you here @domerduck. Glad you extended the party from McGraw's Bench.

 

[Zanzman]

To start the season ND is fine where they are ,but I don’t expect them to be that low at the end

 

[Vowelguy]

Good. With UNC & Duke both ducking UConn for years now I need a surrogate butt kicker.

Who says they are ducking UConn?

 

[Centerstream]

I'll also echo some others that Notre Dame is ranked too low. However you feel about Coach McGraw, she'll have her team prepared, and they will show up. I seriously doubt they'll be in the Final Four, but they will be top ten.

I dislike everything Notre Dame. So this year I am hoping that the ACC isn't dominated by 1 or 2 teams like it usually is. I would like to see 3 or 4 teams in the mix and where any of these teams can beat the other teams on any given night. In other words, ND could lose anywhere from 4 to 6 conference games this season and 2 or 3 OOC games.

 

[nwhoopfan]

My take on Moore replacing Cazorla. Coach Graves repeatedly said Maite was their best perimeter defender. That is also a strength of Moore's, so they should be fine in that regard. Moore isn't a great 3 point shooter, but she's very quick and really hard to contain on the drive. Cazorla was quick as well but I think Moore has an extra gear. Will add a different element for them. Moore certainly has the talent to offset the loss of Cazorla, it's a matter of chemistry and fitting in w/ what the other 4 starters have established together. Oh, also Moore is a one woman fast break. And as noted she has a knack for coming up with steals.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Who says they are ducking UConn?

Really? Duke ended the series after getting blown out by 20 year after year.

 

[TheFarmFan]

I don't think so. Notre Dame basically lost its entire team from a year ago. Keep in mind, they had 4 seniors who were all highly ranked recruits and 4 year contributors, plus Jackie Young who was highly ranked and a big contributor all 3 years. None of the players they have returning were top notch recruits like the ones they lost, and none of them were good enough to make a significant impact off the bench. Transfers will help and Peoples/Brunelle will too, but this is going to be a massive drop off for Notre Dame. I think they're ranked appropriately....

Agree. I would not put Notre Dame in the top 15 or 20 teams as of their opening night. But I think they will be by year end, because they have the most upside potential of any team in the country: lots of raw talent, almost no meaningful college minutes, and one of the best coaches in the country. That is a recipe for a transformation between November and March.

Also, Kentucky has arguably the best sophomore in the nation in Rhyne Howard back

Funny, I thought the best sophomore in the nation went to UConn and goes by the nickname Squeaks...

Re: Oregon, Moore played a bigger role for the Toejams than Cazorla did for the Ducks, but Moore was one of the PAC-12 players I feared most last season, because she is a threat from everywhere on offense and defense. With her plus four returning (and experienced) starters, I think the Ducks will be meaningfully better than they were last year. The only question mark is that she and Erin Boley have totally opposite styles, so I'm not totally sure how that will work. But otherwise, the Ducks should be extremely strong from the 1 to the 5.

 

[domerduck]

A couple of understated issues with the top teams: I'll skip all UConn's ?'s because they have been rehashed elsewhere extensively.

Both Oregon and Baylor are replacing their pg's. I don't know anything about Moore except that she played for USC. And I remember that Sadie Edwards started for USC. And just because Mulky hit a jackpot with Jackson is no reason to assume Cooper will do the same. Cooper is talented but she comes with baggage as this is school #3.

Baylor may have a wealth of size depth but that depth's experience in big games is limited to one player. This isn't a Dolson/Stewart/Stokes situation, at least not at this point. And Cox will be facing different defenders this season as she will surely draw several defenders that guarded Brown last season.

Neither team is coming into this season stronger than last.

The way I see it UConn starts the year a step or 2 behind both Oregon and Baylor but UConn has more upside going into the season, and a better history.

I know the Ducks well. Cazorla will be a loss but they have several to replace her minutes. Grad xfr Minyon Moore was by far Southern Cal's best player last year leading the team in minutes, points (14.8/gm), field goals, assists (5.9/gm), steals (2.6gm), free throws made (@77.4%), 2.7 A/TO, and even rebounds (5.5/gm) as their point guard. She played with her older sister at SC for 3 years who was 2nd or 3rd in all those categories. If she fits in well, she's in the same class as Sabrina and Ruthie so could be awesome. Also Taylor Chavez was their first sub in and is now a sophomore. She was hurt at the end of the season, but early on she went in for Maite seamlessly with a grea 3 point shot. With Australians Yaeger (jr) & Jaz Shelly (Fr), plus incoming Freshman from England, Holly WInterburn, that gives them three more guards in the rotation. so much deeper than last year.

 

[Alydar]

Yet they still lost 4 times and didnt repeat.

That can happen. Often wearing/defending the crown is harder than winning it. Baylor had less of a letdown but still lost in the S16.

 

[bballnut90]

Agree. I would not put Notre Dame in the top 15 or 20 teams as of their opening night. But I think they will be by year end, because they have the most upside potential of any team in the country: lots of raw talent, almost no meaningful college minutes, and one of the best coaches in the country. That is a recipe for a transformation between November and March.


Funny, I thought the best sophomore in the nation went to UConn and goes by the nickname Squeaks...

Re: Oregon, Moore played a bigger role for the Toejams than Cazorla did for the Ducks, but Moore was one of the PAC-12 players I feared most last season, because she is a threat from everywhere on offense and defense. With her plus four returning (and experienced) starters, I think the Ducks will be meaningfully better than they were last year. The only question mark is that she and Erin Boley have totally opposite styles, so I'm not totally sure how that will work. But otherwise, the Ducks should be extremely strong from the 1 to the 5.

Agree regarding ND. Williams may end up being the best sophomore this year but I believe Howard won almost all NPOY awards and was the more consistent player. At any rate, no one should take UK lightly.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

I seriously doubt they'll be in the Final Four, but they will be top ten.

If she gets that roster to finish in the top-10 she deserves every coach of the year vote.

 

[Orangutan]

ND is a year away from being a year away. 16 is probably too high but it makes sense based on respect for McGraw.

There is a better chance that ND's season is a total disaster than there is of a top ten finish in the polls. But hopefully I am wrong...

 

[newfrontier]

So, a team (aka Oregon State) can be 6th in the Nation, yet only third in its own conference. And, OSU is 4-2 against Ionescu led teams. Problem is, Oregon has done better than OSU against other foes the last 2 seasons.

 

[Plebe]

So, a team (aka Oregon State) can be 6th in the Nation, yet only third in its own conference. And, OSU is 4-2 against Ionescu led teams. Problem is, Oregon has done better than OSU against other foes the last 2 seasons.

Two of those wins were in Ionescu's freshman year, when Oregon wasn't even very good. Last year's game at Oregon State was marred by the injury to Hebard. And unfortunately for the Beavers, after that game they played as if they'd already accomplished all they wanted. So OSU limped into a Sweet 16 blowout against Louisville, while Oregon went to the Final Four.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Last year's game at Oregon State was marred by the injury to Hebard.

You've gotten a lot of mileage out of that. OSU was up by more when Hebard got hurt than the final margin ended up being. And just a couple days before they battled the Ducks close in Eugene (it was a 9 point loss but was 5 w/ 1:55 left).

 

[Alydar]

My take on Moore replacing Cazorla. Coach Graves repeatedly said Maite was their best perimeter defender. That is also a strength of Moore's, so they should be fine in that regard. Moore isn't a great 3 point shooter, but she's very quick and really hard to contain on the drive. Cazorla was quick as well but I think Moore has an extra gear. Will add a different element for them. Moore certainly has the talent to offset the loss of Cazorla, it's a matter of chemistry and fitting in w/ what the other 4 starters have established together. Oh, also Moore is a one woman fast break. And as noted she has a knack for coming up with steals.

I know the Ducks well. Cazorla will be a loss but they have several to replace her minutes. Grad xfr Minyon Moore was by far Southern Cal's best player last year leading the team in minutes, points (14.8/gm), field goals, assists (5.9/gm), steals (2.6gm), free throws made (@77.4%), 2.7 A/TO, and even rebounds (5.5/gm) as their point guard. She played with her older sister at SC for 3 years who was 2nd or 3rd in all those categories. If she fits in well, she's in the same class as Sabrina and Ruthie so could be awesome. Also Taylor Chavez was their first sub in and is now a sophomore. She was hurt at the end of the season, but early on she went in for Maite seamlessly with a grea 3 point shot. With Australians Yaeger (jr) & Jaz Shelly (Fr), plus incoming Freshman from England, Holly WInterburn, that gives them three more guards in the rotation. so much deeper than last year.

Moore may well be great but even though I pick Oregon to win the title it is still an unanswered question. A new pg is always a question mark. Oregon has fewer than any other contender but I'd be more confident if the younger Sabally was playing and there wasn't a new pg.

 

[nwhoopfan]

A new pg is always a question mark. Oregon has fewer than any other contender but I'd be more confident if the younger Sabally was playing and there wasn't a new pg.

Well...Ionescu. They had 2 PGs last year. They still have one of them. And the new one has been a starter in the Pac 12 for 2 years (and played starter minutes as a Fr.). So...I don't really see the concern there.

 

[Dillon77]

Trying to figure out where the Irish are at the start of this year is like teaching neophyte dancing students the cha-cha: a few steps forward, a few steps back, maybe even a step or two sideways. Most of these not in any syncopated order.

- There's virtually no floor experience from last year, outside of Mik Vaughn and Abby Prohaska.
- Not a lot of rebounding options, compared to last year.
- Two of the guards expected to score -- Katlyn Gilbert and transfer Destinee Walker -- either just got cleared to practice and are certainly catching up on conditioning, team-building, etc.
- And five members of the team are walk-ons. Maybe senior guard Katie Cole (who earned a scholarship this year) will contribute some minutes, but not a lot.

Still, as Kara Lawson pointed out following the blow-out loss to Louisville in 2017, "there's talent there." It will just take awhile for it to get there and gel. Things I'm looking for:
- 6'3" center Mik Vaughn is another year removed from her ACL and is supposedly moving freely and with some burst speed again.
- Anaya Peoples. McGraw is already calling her the best defender on the team. Not suprising. How will she contribute offensively?
- Sam Brunelle will be counted on a lot; not only offensively, but in the lane on defense and rebounding.
- Gilbert and Walker. Gilbert showed glimpses before her shoulder injury. Walker's been out for years. Can both return and be effective?
- Prohaska is the prototypical pest, supplying energy and defense (see Brittany Mallory, Hannah Huffman). Can she score a bit like Mallory? The Irish will need it.
and
- Rebounding. In their championship year and last year, rebounding led directly into offense via the fast break. Without Jess Shepard, Bri Turner or Kat Westbeld, there are no established rebounders now, so the whole team will have to hit the boards. If Brunelle can approximate Kat Westbeld's peformance on the boards, that will be a plus. Vaughn will have to excel at wiping the windows and/or clogging up the middle on defense.

So, lots of cha-cha's. I'll see the first recital at Fordham next Tuesday. We'll see how it starts and progresses. Interstingly, as a former coach and the husband of a long-standing teacher, I'm looking forward to it. MM loves the practice floor...she'll need to!

 

[Dillon77]

ND is a year away from being a year away.

Well put. Even if the Class of 2020 fills out as Irish fans hope, those five, along with the alums of this season, will still be facing some tough challenges. BTW, I'm eyes wide open, but looking forward to the progress this season.

 

[Vowelguy]

1. Oregon / 2. Baylor / 3. UConn / 4. Stanford
5. Maryland / 6. Oregon State / 7. Louisville / 8. South Carolina
9. Texas A&M / 10. Mississippi State / 11. Florida State / 12. UCLA
13. NC State / 14. Kentucky / 15. Texas / 16. Notre Dame
17. Minnesota / 18. Miami / 19. Arizona / 20. Arkansas
21. DePaul / 22. Drake / 23. Michigan / 24. Indiana
25. Tennessee

Btw, rankings like these are a committee nightmare. Tough to put together a balanced and attendance-grabbing bracket.

 

[Plebe]

You've gotten a lot of mileage out of that. OSU was up by more when Hebard got hurt than the final margin ended up being. And just a couple days before they battled the Ducks close in Eugene (it was a 9 point loss but was 5 w/ 1:55 left).

It doesn't change the fact that Hebard was injured in the first half and their chances of fighting back in that game were hurt by her injury.

 

[jonson]

You've gotten a lot of mileage out of that. OSU was up by more when Hebard got hurt than the final margin ended up being. And just a couple days before they battled the Ducks close in Eugene (it was a 9 point loss but was 5 w/ 1:55 left).

On the other hand, didn't it take overtime for OSU to win in Corvallis the previous year (2017-18), whereas they lost in Eugene by 12? I wouldn't be surprised the teams split once again this year, but I think that by any reasonable measure one team--my team--had a better season overall both years, and played a much tougher schedule as well.

 

[DeeHusky]

Trying to figure out where the Irish are at the start of this year is like teaching neophyte dancing students the cha-cha: a few steps forward, a few steps back, maybe even a step or two sideways. Most of these not in any syncopated order.

- There's virtually no floor experience from last year, outside of Mik Vaughn and Abby Prohaska.
- Not a lot of rebounding options, compared to last year.
- Two of the guards expected to score -- Katlyn Gilbert and transfer Destinee Walker -- either just got cleared to practice and are certainly catching up on conditioning, team-building, etc.
- And five members of the team are walk-ons. Maybe senior guard Katie Cole (who earned a scholarship this year) will contribute some minutes, but not a lot.

Still, as Kara Lawson pointed out following the blow-out loss to Louisville in 2017, "there's talent there." It will just take awhile for it to get there and gel. Things I'm looking for:
- 6'3" center Mik Vaughn is another year removed from her ACL and is supposedly moving freely and with some burst speed again.
- Anaya Peoples. McGraw is already calling her the best defender on the team. Not suprising. How will she contribute offensively?
- Sam Brunelle will be counted on a lot; not only offensively, but in the lane on defense and rebounding.
- Gilbert and Walker. Gilbert showed glimpses before her shoulder injury. Walker's been out for years. Can both return and be effective?
- Prohaska is the prototypical pest, supplying energy and defense (see Brittany Mallory, Hannah Huffman). Can she score a bit like Mallory? The Irish will need it.
and
- Rebounding. In their championship year and last year, rebounding led directly into offense off the fast break. No established monster rebounders now, so the whole team will have to hit the boards. If Brunelle can approximate Kat Westbeld's peformance on the boards, that will be a plus. Vaughn will have to excel.

So, lost of cha-cha's. I'll see the first recital at Fordham next Tuesday. We'll see how it starts and progresses. Interstingly, as a former coach and the husband of a long-standing teacher, I'm looking forward to it. MM loves the practice floor...she'll need to!

The rebounding was a huge part of their offense the past two years. Jess Shepard was a monster throwing hail mary’s to Arike on the fast break and creating extra offensive opportunities. Glad she’s gone. Now we don’t have to get past ND to get to the championship where we haven’t lost.

 

[Alydar]

For me, the thing that keeps me from being willing to put OSU on the top line is that Rueck doesn't seem to be able to coach his team in big March games unless they're playing Baylor. If you look at OSU's terminal loss each of the past four seasons, it's been something of a blowout against the top squads (minus two great wins against Baylor). Stanford has had a bit of the same problem but with Notre Dame as the team it's kryptonite for - other than wins over the Domers, we've had bad losses late in March against top teams each of the last six seasons. Since Chiney graduated, we have yet to beat any other Final Four-type teams in March but the Domers.

Probably for those reasons, I'm skeptical of putting either Stanford or OSU on the top line. However, after UConn, Baylor, and Oregon, someone has to grab the 4th 1 seed, and I think Stanford is probably the most plausible candidate aside from Maryland (which benefits from a much easier conference schedule).

Now, none of that matters for how I'm ranking teams in week 1 - that is who I think is the best team right now. But it keeps me wary of teams like OSU that have a tendency to fall short when it counts, and it's also why UConn was such a ludicrous two seed last season - as soon as they were granted a rematch with Louisville, I would have put all the money in the world on them winning, because Geno & Co. in March (and even more so in April) is a totally different team. I probably don't think UConn is the true #3 team in the country right now, but I am confident they will be by March.

Geno & Co. in March (and even more so in April) is a totally different team.

A great post except for that . If there is one trait that separates UConn from the rest is their play during the season.



Most years UConn comes out in November and plays smooth, efficient games that are very entertaining to watch (if you root for UConn) while other teams that will end up as top 10 look like crap in November. In 2008 Stanford looked weak when UConn dominated them in the Carribean (the final score didn't reflect the lack of competitiveness but was a much better team when they beat an undefeated UConn team in the FF semi.

Geno & Co. in March (and even more so in April) is a totally different team (from UConn playing in Maples)

 

[nwhoopfan]

I wouldn't be surprised the teams split once again this year, but I think that by any reasonable measure one team--my team--had a better season overall both years, and played a much tougher schedule as well.

Agreed, I don't think I indicated otherwise.

Speaking of that OT win for OSU during '17-'18 season, the hero of that game (Tudor) missed both games against UO last year. So if we're gonna note Hebard missing about half of 1 game, might be worth mentioning a significant contributor who wasn't available.

 

[nwhoopfan]

For me, the thing that keeps me from being willing to put OSU on the top line is that Rueck doesn't seem to be able to coach his team in big March games unless they're playing Baylor. If you look at OSU's terminal loss each of the past four seasons, it's been something of a blowout against the top squads (minus two great wins against Baylor).

I'd kinda rather not see OSU have to play Louisville in the Tourney...ever again.

 

[domerduck]

For the Ducks at guard sport replacing Cazorla they have options and beyond Moore which I agree could be a chemistry fit, people are forgetting how good Taylor Chavez was as a Freshman until she got hurt late in the season. She fit in seamlessly subbing for Cazorla or Boley...she is strong on D and has a great 3 point shot. I think Moore adds another dimension. They also have 3 other guards, 1 from the England and 2 from down under. PG will not be the problem.

I worry more about bigs and agree the Ducks could use Prince to get the xfr waiver (ala Jess Shephard) and that will make them very strong, barring injury. Unless Giomi's game steps up, they will be very deepndent on Ruthie under the basket and Satou playing near the basket, which she doesn't like to do . But then Sabrina can go anywhere/do anything and I was surprised that Moore had 5.5 rpg last year so maybe, they won't need another big.

Moore may well be great but even though I pick Oregon to win the title it is still an unanswered question. A new pg is always a question mark. Oregon has fewer than any other contender but I'd be more confident if the younger Sabally was playing and there wasn't a new pg.

I'd kinda rather not see OSU have to play Louisville in the Tourney...ever again.