UConn's schedule is a good example of why measuring schedule strength is so difficult.
Based on Sagarin ratings, the UConn schedule is ranked 172. But that's largely because the weakest UConn opponents are dragging down the ratings. UConn will beat Monmouth, ranked #319, but would have no problems with a much higher ranked team.
In contrast, the schedule of Virginia Tech is rated as stronger, even though the toughest team on the schedule is only the 85th best team in the country
- 85 Florida 76.49
- 112 Richmond 73.61
- 133 Old Dominion 71.51
- 146 Hofstra 70.34
- 159 Bucknell 69.34
- 254 Howard 61.26
This is not proof that the metric is flawed.
Suppose you were Ball State, with a rating of about 70. If you play against UConn's schedule with the following ratings:
- 97.22
- 92.63
- 89.99
- 71.63
- 69.08
- 64.34
- 60.18
- 55.08
you expect to lose 4 and win 4.
However, if you play Virginia Tech's schedule, you expect to go 2-4. So, to Ball State, the Virginia Tech schedule looks tougher. To UConn, the Virginia Tech schedule looks like a cakewalk, while the actual schedule has three potential teams who could challenge.
