ESPN Prediction Model- UCONN 88% OKLA 12%

[leepaul]

In the "for what it's worth" category, ESPN's prediction model heavily favors UCONN (88%) over OKLA, and the bookmakers have UCONN favored by 14.5 points.

Hope it's so for UCONN'S sake..... not that I would get any satisfaction whatsoever in seeing the conniving Sooners cry in their beers. -}

Oklahoma vs. UConn (Mar 29, 2025) Live Score - ESPN

 

[yhun89]

Oklahoma struggles with handling the ball, very turnover prone. We throw KK on the point guard and we can disrupt and create chaos really early on. Make it even worse for them if Ash and KK are double teaming.

Beers could be an issue on the glass for sure. However, she struggled a lot yesterday in terms of getting any points for an entire half, only in the second half she really came alive.

Verhulst and Williams are elite shooters, and we cannot give up any open 3’s to them.

 

[maple]

 

[ec33]

Someone enterprising should do a statistic analysis of ESPN computer predictions. They are likely near the bottom, with zoo animals (excluding the German octopus).

But this one is about right. Just hope Saturday isn't one of those less-frequent eighths.

 

[Charliebball]

Always the pessimist I think UConn should win but it might be a bit tougher than ESPN predicts..........after all Oklahoma has beaten Tennessee, Louisville, Iowa and Michigan among others so they aren't exactly pushovers........I'm not sure who's handling Beers but UConn can't let her dominate in the paint.....

 

[Rowdy831]

I think Oklahoma will have a very difficult time keeping up with the quickness of UConn. As much as Beers impressed last season she seems to have lot a step in this offense playing with this team and I am confident Jana, Ice and Sarah can keep her contained. The latter two will have a field day on offense if she trying to guard them.

To me there is only one team that can beat UConn and it is UConn and they don't usually do that. KC to me is defensive liability if the guards are prone to driving to the basket but once KK comes in that avenue is shut off. If KC is going to be in the lineup then she needs to contribute on the offense since she is one no one on the opposition pays attention to.

 

[hookshot]

KK grades an A+ on defense because of her ability to be disruptive by utilizing her quickness to play inside the knickers of the ball handler, but KC earns a solid A with a different style of meeting or beating the ball handler to the spot that they are trying to go. Both are outstanding defenders and both could contribute more on offense, but generally able to contribute by taking what the defense gives them, while not necessarily creating. KK, ASH and KC are all tenacious defenders in that order.

 

[Next 12]

ESPN;s prediction of 87% winning is about right. Uconn will be Too fast on defense and offense. Uconn has five players that can light up up the score board with 20+ points and the defense is probably the best in the Tournament. As I said in the S.DAK.ST. game, they were good,BUT, Uconn is better. I say the same for Oklahoma. I rest my case. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!!

 

[Bone Dog]

ESPN has it right, I suspect. I’d look for comparable losses, and the two beat downs from SC stand out since they are the most similar to UConn in the way they depend more on great guard play than large posts. SC dominated them on defense forcing 20+ TOs each game with lots of steals and blocks. Beers was a non-factor in each game even when she scored over 20 pts.

 

[huskyharry]

Boxing out will be critical. Oklahoma has a lot of size and many thumpers (like Bam Bam was).
They have set NCAA records for rebounding margin…so we are of course doomed!

 

[fomalhaut]

Verhulst and Williams are elite shooters, and we cannot give up any open 3’s to them.

Anyone can get hot for one game, but Verhulst is shooting .348: she takes a lot of threes but only makes two or three a game. Williams is shooting .302 and barely makes one a game.

 

[Big Fan]

Against Iowa they shot 27 free throws versus 7 for Iowa and made 19 - a huge number. Wow. So don't get into foul trouble. Refs could play a big part

 

[BRS24]

Picks, predictions, key players for every women's Sweet 16 game

Why might every Sweet 16 team win its regional semifinal matchup in Birmingham and Spokane? We predict the winners.

www.espn.com

No coffee yet this am? Here's the TLDR:

 

[yhun89]

Anyone can get hot for one game, but Verhulst is shooting .348: she takes a lot of threes but only makes two or three a game. Williams is shooting .302 and barely makes one a game.

Fair enough. It seemed like when I was watching OK vs Iowa, everything for them was going in, haha.

Plus, you know what happens when opponents who typically don't shoot well from 3 do when they play us. All of a sudden, they're 60% from the arc

 

[ERWUC65]

Just like UConn, they were at home (sweet home). Now it's who travels best and shoots well with tight rims and nervous hands.

 

[DrummerDee]

Voepel thinks Ok is gonna score 82 on UConn??

 

[oldude]

OK is a good team that will give UConn a battle…for awhile. While the Sooners have some nice wins this season, they got thumped twice by SC. In addition, the Iowa win looked really good, until you recognize that the Hawkeyes are similar to a lot of teams from the BIG, slow and lacking athleticism, with the exception of Lucy Olsen.

 

[Fossil]

I believe if Connecticut runs that will put Beers on the bench more often. Her fitness level is questionable. I have a hard time believing Oklahoma will put up 82 points against Connecticut’s defense.Solid rebounding, and fast breaks, and Connecticut can run Oklahoma out of the gym. Hopefully Azzi can get hot and Ash can contribute. Confident Paige and Sarah will do their thing. Go Huskies!!!

 

[Geew1992]

I believe if Connecticut runs that will put Beers on the bench more often. Her fitness level is questionable. I have a hard time believing Oklahoma will put up 82 points against Connecticut’s defense.Solid rebounding, and fast breaks, and Connecticut can run Oklahoma out of the gym. Hopefully Azzi can get hot and Ash can contribute. Confident Paige and Sarah will do their thing. Go Huskies!!!

Beers also likes to foul, which will put her on the bench

 

[oldude]

Beers also likes to foul, which will put her on the bench

The entire OK team likes to foul. They did so frequently against the slower Iowa Hawkeyes, and will undoubtedly do so against the quicker Huskies. While I like the idea of UConn getting to the foul line, I worry about someone getting injured.

 

[Zarathustra]

The entire OK team likes to foul. They did so frequently against the slower Iowa Hawkeyes, and will undoubtedly do so against the quicker Huskies. While I like the idea of UConn getting to the foul line, I worry about someone getting injured.

Not to mention the 20+ turnovers a game for the SOONERS.

 

[oldude]

Not to mention the 20+ turnovers a game for the SOONERS.

I thought you might be exaggerating quite a bit, so I checked Oklahoma’s stat page and was astonished to see that the Sooner’s average just under 19 turnovers per game. That’s not quite 20+, but against UConn’s relentless defense I have the over/under for turnovers by the Sooners during Saturday’s game for at least 25.

 

[cabbie191]

If KC is going to be in the lineup then she needs to contribute on the offense since she is one no one on the opposition pays attention to.

What you say may be true but it it’s surprising when opponents dismiss KC’s offensive potential. Of our 6 players who average 20+ minutes a game, Chen is 3rd in FG%. She’s 4th in 3-pt shooting and is better than Strong in that category.

 

[Zarathustra]

I thought you might be exaggerating quite a bit, so I checked Oklahoma’s stat page and was astonished to see that the Sooner’s average just under 19 turnovers per game. That’s not quite 20+, but against UConn’s relentless defense I have the over/under for turnovers by the Sooners during Saturday’s game for at least 25.

Sorry about that! I was either using a one game stat or just a
misreading of the assists per game 21.9 for the T.O. stat. Nice
Catch on your part! Much appreciated. GO HUSKIES! Make
my 20+ "prognostication" for turnovers come true! " In KK I
trust!"... Z

 

[BRS24]

I believe if Connecticut runs that will put Beers on the bench more often. Her fitness level is questionable. I have a hard time believing Oklahoma will put up 82 points against Connecticut’s defense.Solid rebounding, and fast breaks, and Connecticut can run Oklahoma out of the gym. Hopefully Azzi can get hot and Ash can contribute. Confident Paige and Sarah will do their thing. Go Huskies!!!

So I wasn't the only one thinking this, after noticing it, perhaps during the loss to South Carolina in the SEC tourney.