ESPN Prediction Model- UCONN 88% OKLA 12%

[Huskee11]

I am baffled as to how they beat Tennessee. Only 8 threes (to 10 for Tennessee), fewer FG attempts 81-63, only 8 offensive rebounds, 31 Oklahoma turnovers.

They did shoot well from inside the three point line in that game, 26 for 37 or 70%.

They appear to have dominated the boards against Texas (even though Oklahoma lost 80-73) and were pretty even on the boards both games against SC. But 27 turnovers against Texas and a 38-14 difference in turnovers in the two SC games.

It feels like this plays into UConn's hands. UConn will press full court as they have been doing and will make it be a full court game. UConn should be able to turn Oklahoma over frequently. I can see Sarah getting some rim runners and Azzi finding open threes on the right wing in transition.

Defending in the half court, UConn needs to keep the Oklahoma two-point shooting percentage down and limit offensive rebounds and second chance points. No stupid fouls. If it is a close game, it will be because UConn is weak in these areas.

It is possible that Oklahoma will keep it somewhat close in the first half, within 8-10 points, but I think UConn's pressure defense will wear Oklahoma down and blow it open in the third. Look for a big game from Azzi.

 

[DallasDomer]

I am baffled as to how they beat Tennessee. Only 8 threes (to 10 for Tennessee), fewer FG attempts 81-63, only 8 offensive rebounds, 31 Oklahoma turnovers.

They did shoot well from inside the three point line in that game, 26 for 37 or 70%.

They appear to have dominated the boards against Texas (even though Oklahoma lost 80-73) and were pretty even on the boards both games against SC. But 27 turnovers against Texas and a 38-14 difference in turnovers in the two SC games.

It feels like this plays into UConn's hands. UConn will press full court as they have been doing and will make it be a full court game. UConn should be able to turn Oklahoma over frequently. I can see Sarah getting some rim runners and Azzi finding open threes on the right wing in transition.

Defending in the half court, UConn needs to keep the Oklahoma two-point shooting percentage down and limit offensive rebounds and second chance points. No stupid fouls. If it is a close game, it will be because UConn is weak in these areas.

It is possible that Oklahoma will keep it somewhat close in the first half, within 8-10 points, but I think UConn's pressure defense will wear Oklahoma down and blow it open in the third. Look for a big game from Azzi.

In my uninformed opinion I think Oklahoma is more dangerous than many are giving them credit for.

First I agree that the ESPN models are often suspect, they give UConn an 88% win chance. If you look at Massey he has UConn a 71% chance with an 8 point margin. That feels better to me.

Another comment was about Oklahoma turnovers and expecting another 20 turnovers from them but in the Iowa game they held it to 15, still likely higher than UConn but more reasonable.

Another comment was that Oklahoma couldn't keep up with UConn but they score 85.4 points per game compared to 81.7 for UConn. This and their game video show a very fast paced team just like UConn is. This is noted in the Iowa game where Oklahoma bounced between layups from under the basket to three point shots before anyone is set up.

I'm not saying UConn will lose I just think it will be a tougher game than some of these predictions.