ESPN: Karma is a bitch

[UConnJim]

Unfortunately, ESPN is far from a death spiral. Even though they've lost subscribers, they've successfully raised their fees per subscriber. ESPN is very profitable and remains Disney's cash cow. The longer term may be problematic for ESPN but we're talking years.

True, ESPN is not going away fast. The decrimental margins in a high fixed cost business like ESPN are high which means a small decline in revenues results in a significant decline in earnings. For example, a 5% decline in revenues would probably result in a 15% to 20% decline in earnings. You are correct that ESPN is still raising prices, which has offset the decline in subscribers, but it appears that cable subscriber loss (for everyone, not just ESPN) may be accelerating. And, good luck raising prices if ESPN starts to give up some content like Monday Night Football. Disney's stock will not do well with a large business segment having earnings struggles and with ESPN becoming a smaller part of Disney's earnings (it is estimated to be less than 20% of Disney's earnings by 2020) Disney may separate ESPN in the future to improve Disney earnings growth.

 

[billybud]

Lord god...ESPN didn't kill the Big East.....the Big East was like a religious fanatic that refused an operation because "it would thwart God's will"...and thus died. The Big East effectively killed itself.

We all know the particulars...the BE Commissioner's prescient discussions with the ACC about selling off the football schools to the ACC (giving the ACC something to think about a few years later and eventually act upon)...the BE's unwieldy "smorgasbord" of a non all sports conference make up, the conflicting interests of the non football schools...etc.

Sure....someone must be blamed...thus we blame ESPN, the ACC, Boston College, FSU. whoever.....but the blame should squarely fall upon the short sighted leadership of the conference, who couldn't see beyond the near horizon.....who couldn't turn the ship's wheel because the crew had disabled the rudder....

We all knew that, with the hundred and twenty some odd FBS programs, there would be a move to consolidate what effectively would be an upper division. And that there might be some contention for survival between the two conferences considered to be the weakest of the BCS. If the ACC head shed didn't coin the pernicious "Big Least" label as part of their public perception war, they should have.

The ACC leadership knew what was coming...knew the importance of football to media contracts.....and so should have the Big East's leadership.....You have to ask..."just why was the ACC attractive to those BE programs that originally left?".

Maybe they saw the risk factors inherent in staying in the Old BE.

 

[whalerfan]

Lord god...ESPN didn't kill the Big East.....the Big East was like a religious fanatic that refused an operation because "it would thwart God's will"...and thus died. The Big East effectively killed itself.

We all know the particulars...the BE Commissioner's prescient discussions with the ACC about selling off the football schools to the ACC (giving the ACC something to think about a few years later and eventually act upon)...the BE's unwieldy "smorgasbord" of a non all sports conference make up, the conflicting interests of the non football schools...etc.

Sure....someone must be blamed...thus we blame ESPN, the ACC, Boston College, FSU. whoever.....but the blame should squarely fall upon the short sighted leadership of the conference, who couldn't see beyond the near horizon.....who couldn't turn the ship's wheel because the crew had disabled the rudder....

We all knew that, with the hundred and twenty some odd FBS programs, there would be a move to consolidate what effectively would be an upper division. And that there might be some contention for survival between the two conferences considered to be the weakest of the BCS. If the ACC head shed didn't coin the pernicious "Big Least" label as part of their public perception war, they should have.

The ACC leadership knew what was coming...knew the importance of football to media contracts.....and so should have the Big East's leadership.....You have to ask..."just why was the ACC attractive to those BE programs that originally left?".

Maybe they saw the risk factors inherent in staying in the Old BE.

I wish I had some of the revisionist history that you just stated. Then we wouldn't have the Afforadble Care Act and the real Big East would still exist.

 

[dogged1]

CL82 puts up an article about ESPN that's of interest to Uconn's Boneyard, along with a short commentary. Then we get not one but two ACC morons "educating" us on what's wrong with Uconn and how misinformed we all are.
Will you guys just go and play in your own sandbox.
Go away, far, far away.

 

[CL82]

Lord god...ESPN didn't kill the Big East.....the Big East was like a religious fanatic that refused an operation because "it would thwart God's will"...and thus died. The Big East effectively killed itself.

We all know the particulars...the BE Commissioner's prescient discussions with the ACC about selling off the football schools to the ACC (giving the ACC something to think about a few years later and eventually act upon)...the BE's unwieldy "smorgasbord" of a non all sports conference make up, the conflicting interests of the non football schools...etc.

Sure....someone must be blamed...thus we blame ESPN, the ACC, Boston College, FSU. whoever.....but the blame should squarely fall upon the short sighted leadership of the conference, who couldn't see beyond the near horizon.....who couldn't turn the ship's wheel because the crew had disabled the rudder....

We all knew that, with the hundred and twenty some odd FBS programs, there would be a move to consolidate what effectively would be an upper division. And that there might be some contention for survival between the two conferences considered to be the weakest of the BCS. If the ACC head shed didn't coin the pernicious "Big Least" label as part of their public perception war, they should have.

The ACC leadership knew what was coming...knew the importance of football to media contracts.....and so should have the Big East's leadership.....You have to ask..."just why was the ACC attractive to those BE programs that originally left?".

Maybe they saw the risk factors inherent in staying in the Old BE.

You are posting more lately. Tuning out on FSU's football season?

 

[Marty Jackson]

True, but you would think that they would have supported their home state university instead stabbing them in the back.

one would think that... and there are other people outside CT that think ESPN is essentially an extension of Uconn. While I don't honestly think ESPN has gone out of it's way to simply screw Uconn, it's probably fair to say that they haven't gone out of their way to push Uconn or adjust their valautions to include a hometown bonus...
As a fan, it's easier to assume ESPN has simply sabatoged uconn because that's the easier answer given the lack of transparency. And every story needs a villain...

 

[Marty Jackson]

Reread my post and point out to me where it says I am rooting against ESPN, and especially against CT jobs.

I am rooting for us to get out of "P6" purgatory that we call the American. Change is our ally because the status quo ante is death to us.

That said, if ESPN is actually in a death spiral because the cost of restructuring the college conference landscape to a format it could better monopolize contributed to its downfall, well you'll forgive me if I note the irony of the fact that in killing the best college basketball conference of all time, they also killed themselves.

I will point out that when you have a title "Karma is a bitch", you sort of are implying what you said that you didn't say...

In any case, why don't you re-read my post and let me know where I said (or even implied), that 'you' were rooting against ESPN or CT jobs... Did I quote 'you'? Did I cut and paste from some post that 'you' made previously? Did I say that 'you' specifically were rooting against ESPN? Did I say 'you' were rooting against CT jobs? Open any thread on expansion and you will find posts about how ESPN is sticking it to Uconn or how we should be glad ESPN is losing 1M subscribers every hour... ESPN (and BC) are the favorite antagonists in Uconn's BCS/P5 story. I've probably posted anti-ESPN commentary as well. As a Uconn fan it's not difficult and I'm not claiming to be above it.
But, my point was that there is more to ESPN than just Uconn and P5 aspirations. Having lost GE, Aetna, and almost losing Cigna, does CT really need to lose another marquee corporate brand and several thousand more jobs?

You posted something and I responded candidly and honestly.

 

[billybud]

You are posting more lately. Tuning out on FSU's football season?

I post when I post...and I post in years that go 14-0 and in years that are not so good....football seasons are like poker, you will have some losing hands...but you need to average out a winner.

Some will win a couple of bracelets over time, some will always go out the first day, and some will show up at the final table more than most (Bama).

 

[The Funster]

I wish I had some of the revisionist history that you just stated. Then we wouldn't have the Afforadble Care Act and the real Big East would still exist.

He's had it explained to him before. He chooses to ignore it. He's the embodiment of a troll.

 

[billybud]

He's had it explained to him before. He chooses to ignore it. He's the embodiment of a troll.

Nope...Your perspective changes depending on which facts you choose to dwell on...BUT

...It is undeniable that the Big East Commissioner approached the ACC to explore shopping some football schools....The Big East was attempting to shop off its football programs a decade before the ACC took them up on it.

``We`ve quietly had on-going, exploratory type conversations,`` Tranghese said. ``It`s an informal-type conversation about forming a consortium, unifying with the ACC in a football agreement. It`s a possibility.``

The Big East`s plan is to protect its lucrative basketball interests by aligning Syracuse, Pitt and Boston College into another conference for football only. The Metro eagerly offers that. The ACC will consider it.

``We have talked, but our conference hasn`t had a chance to discuss this,`` ACC Commissioner Gene Corrigan said. ``We don`t know where we are.``

...I think that this article is a fairly reasoned and resourced look at just how the conferences and media partners work and how that may affect realignment.

In big-money marriage of TV and college football, who has most say?

 

[CL82]

Nope...Your perspective changes depending on which facts you choose to dwell on...BUT

...It is undeniable that the Big East Commissioner approached the ACC to explore shopping some football schools....The Big East was attempting to shop off its football programs a decade before the ACC took them up on it.

``We`ve quietly had on-going, exploratory type conversations,`` Tranghese said. ``It`s an informal-type conversation about forming a consortium, unifying with the ACC in a football agreement. It`s a possibility.``

The Big East`s plan is to protect its lucrative basketball interests by aligning Syracuse, Pitt and Boston College into another conference for football only. The Metro eagerly offers that. The ACC will consider it.

``We have talked, but our conference hasn`t had a chance to discuss this,`` ACC Commissioner Gene Corrigan said. ``We don`t know where we are.``

...I think that this article is a fairly reasoned and resourced look at just how the conferences and media partners work and how that may affect realignment.

In big-money marriage of TV and college football, who has most say?

Um that doesn't seem to say what you think it does chief.

 

[uconnfan68]

True, ESPN is not going away fast. The decrimental margins in a high fixed cost business like ESPN are high which means a small decline in revenues results in a significant decline in earnings. For example, a 5% decline in revenues would probably result in a 15% to 20% decline in earnings. You are correct that ESPN is still raising prices, which has offset the decline in subscribers, but it appears that cable subscriber loss (for everyone, not just ESPN) may be accelerating. And, good luck raising prices if ESPN starts to give up some content like Monday Night Football. Disney's stock will not do well with a large business segment having earnings struggles and with ESPN becoming a smaller part of Disney's earnings (it is estimated to be less than 20% of Disney's earnings by 2020) Disney may separate ESPN in the future to improve Disney earnings growth.

Espn is Disney earnings. By far the largest single contributor to Disney’s bottom line.

 

[UConnJim]

Espn is Disney earnings. By far the largest single contributor to Disney’s bottom line.

ESPN is ~25% to 30% of Disney's earnings this year, dropping to ~20% in 2 or 3 years based on analyst estimates. They are very important, but Disney is getting 70%+ of earnings from Parks, movies, merchandise, ABC,...

 

[Palatine]

Nope...Your perspective changes depending on which facts you choose to dwell on...BUT

...It is undeniable that the Big East Commissioner approached the ACC to explore shopping some football schools....The Big East was attempting to shop off its football programs a decade before the ACC took them up on it.

``We`ve quietly had on-going, exploratory type conversations,`` Tranghese said. ``It`s an informal-type conversation about forming a consortium, unifying with the ACC in a football agreement. It`s a possibility.``

The Big East`s plan is to protect its lucrative basketball interests by aligning Syracuse, Pitt and Boston College into another conference for football only. The Metro eagerly offers that. The ACC will consider it.

``We have talked, but our conference hasn`t had a chance to discuss this,`` ACC Commissioner Gene Corrigan said. ``We don`t know where we are.``

...I think that this article is a fairly reasoned and resourced look at just how the conferences and media partners work and how that may affect realignment.

In big-money marriage of TV and college football, who has most say?

The sheer incompetence from the morons in Providence is breath taking.

They were completely clueless of what they had. They sold it on the cheap because they had no understanding of its value. And they lost tens of millions of dollars in the bargain.

Compare the FBS Bowl records of the ACC and BE. The BE was much better and had the better and more marketable league. Just amazing.

 

[UConnFranklin]

Dumped in favor of a football one? Uh no, the football point was the main topic. I threw the basketball attendance in merely to point out that your basketball attendance isn't anything close to special either. I hope you can get back to your days of crowds in the upper 30s for football, that's a good number in the AAC. BTW: I really don't think selling a mere 2,771 of your 17,500 tickets to the Fiesta Bowl does much to help your cause.

I thought we were past this. Ok I'll explain this again. I was there at the Fiesta Bowl. I took photos of the crowd and although it was reported that UConn only sold a fraction of it's ticket allotment there were many, many more UConn fans in attendance. It was roughly at 50-50 split of the crowd. Most fans from UConn purchased their tickets from the secondary market because the Fiesta Bowl was hosting the National Championship game a few week later and in order for fans to get tickets for that game they were forced to purchase ticket for the Fiesta Bowl. When their team didn't get to the Fiesta Bowl the fans put tickets on sale for very cheap prices. Considerably less than what UConn was selling them for. If you we in attendance at the Fiesta Bowl you clearly would have seen a huge UConn crowd. No can we be done with this false rumor!!!

 

[uconnfan68]

ESPN is ~25% to 30% of Disney's earnings this year, dropping to ~20% in 2 or 3 years based on analyst estimates. They are very important, but Disney is getting 70%+ of earnings from Parks, movies, merchandise, ABC,...

And you realize those are all in separate divisions? Again, Espn is by far the largest contributor to Disney’s bottom line, at a very small overhead. ABC is also part of cable and media, and is a pittance of the profit.

 

[UConnJim]

And you realize those are all in separate divisions? Again, Espn is by far the largest contributor to Disney’s bottom line, at a very small overhead. ABC is also part of cable and media, and is a pittance of the profit.

Disney's earnings can be hard to decipher due to limited reporting of results within the various businesses. Parks and Resorts are currently about the same earnings contributor as ESPN, but you have to dig deep into the numbers to figure that out. Here's the math:

ESPN and ABC are part of the Media Networks segment. In that division, there are 3 reporting groups:

Cable Networks: ESPN channels (80% owned by Disney, 20% Hearst), Disney channels, and Freeform (was ABC Family)

Broadcasting: ABC, owned TV stations, and ABC studios

Equity investments: 50% of A+E and Vice plus other investments like BAMTech and Hulu.

Here are the financial results reported by Disney in Q3:

Media Networks segment: $1.475 billion
Cable Networks: $1.236 bill.
Broadcasting: $0.226 bill.
Equity investments: $0.01 bill. (losses from growth initiatives like BAMTech and Hulu)

Parks and Resorts: $0.746 bill.

Studio Entertainment: $0.218 bill.

Cons. Products and Interactive Media: $0.373 bill.

ESPN is probably 80% Cable Networks earnings or ~$1.0 bill., BUT, Disney only owns 80% of ESPN. The segment reporting includes 100% of ESPN's earnings due to accounting rules (Hearst portion of ESPN's earnings are subtracted below the line in Net income attributable to non controlling interests), so ESPN earnings attributable to Disney is ~$0.800 bill.

Thus, ESPN and Parks and Resorts are almost equal contributors ($0.800 bill vs 0.746 bill) to Disney's earnings with Parks and Resorts earnings growing faster so it will be a greater % of earnings over time.

As a side note, Disney has been very aware of the long term issues at ESPN and they have been telling investors that the rest of company is growing and they have been investing in their other businesses and acquiring assets like Lucasfim (Star Wars) and rumored to want to acquire assets from 21st Century Fox. That is why ESPN's earnings as a % of total Disney earnings will fall to ~20% in 2020. At that time, Disney can decide what they want to do with ESPN if the future outlook is unfavorable without crushing the stock.

 

[huskymedic]

>>The layoffs come after Disney released its fourth quarter earnings last week that showed the theme park division’s revenue grew while the rest of the company saw declining revenue and operating income in media networks, consumer products and studio entertainment divisions.

The L.A. Times reported last week Walt Disney Co.’s ESPN, under financial pressure, plans to lay off 100 more employees this year.<<

>>The division’s revenues rose by 6 percent, to $4.7 billion, at Disney Parks and Resorts while operating income jumped 7 percent to $746 million.<<